Information and preference reversals in lotteries

Several approaches have been proposed for evaluating information in expected utility theory. Among the most popular approaches are the expected utility increase, the selling price and the buying price. While the expected utility increase and the selling price always agree in ranking information alternatives, Hazen and Sounderpandian [11] have demonstrated that the buying price may not always agree with the other two. That is, in some cases, where the expected utility increase would value information A more highly than information B, the buying price may reverse these preferences. In this paper, we discuss the conditions under which all these approaches agree in a generic decision environment where the decision maker may choose to acquire arbitrary information bundles.     

Stochastic preference analysis in numerical preference relations

Numerical preference relations (NPRs) consisting of numerical judgments can be considered as a general form of the existing preference relations, such as multiplicative preference relations (MPRs), fuzzy preference relations (FPRs), interval MPRs (IV-MPRs) and interval FPRs (IV-FPRs). On the basis of NPRs, we develop a stochastic preference analysis (SPA) method to aid the decision makers (DMs) in decision making. The numerical judgments in NPRs can also be characterized by different probability distributions in accordance with practice. By exploring the judgment space of NPRs, SPA produces several outcomes including the rank acceptability index, the expected priority vector, the expected rank and the confidence factor. The outcomes are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation with at least 95% confidence degree. Based on the outcomes, the DMs can choose some of them which they find most useful to make reliable decisions.     

Propositional distances and compact preference representation

Distances between possible worlds play an important role in logic-based knowledge representation (especially in belief change, reasoning about action, belief merging and similarity-based reasoning). We show here how they can be used for representing in a compact and intuitive way the preference profile of an agent, following the principle that given a goal G, then the closer a world w to a model of G, the better w. We give an integrated logical framework for preference representation which handles weighted goals and distances to goals in a uniform way. Then we argue that the widely used Hamming distance (which merely counts the number of propositional symbols assigned a different value by two worlds) is generally too rudimentary and too syntax-sensitive to be suitable in real applications; therefore, we propose a new family of distances, based on Choquet integrals, in which the Hamming distance has a position very similar to that of the arithmetic mean in the class of Choquet integrals.     

Revealed preference theory: An algorithmic outlook

Revealed preference theory is a domain within economics that studies rationalizability of behavior by (certain types of) utility functions. Given observed behavior in the form of choice data, testing whether certain conditions are satisfied gives rise to a variety of computational problems that can be analyzed using operations research techniques. In this survey, we provide an overview of these problems, their theoretical complexity, and available algorithms for tackling them. We focus on consumer choice settings, in particular individual choice, collective choice and stochastic choice settings.     

On incomplete preference structures

Incomplete preference structures are composed of three relations: preference, indifference and incomparability. We survey some very recent works which model such structures, using interval orders or semi orders. Three approaches are proposed: first, in relation to comparability graph characterization; second, in relation to order dimension theory; and third, representation of the structures on the real line.     

Optimal investment,consumption and timing of annuity purchase under a preference change

In this paper, we study the optimal investment and consumption strategies for a retired individual who has the opportunity of choosing a discretionary stopping time to purchase an annuity. We assume that the individual receives a fixed annuity income and changes his/her preference after paying a fixed cost for annuitization. By using the martingale method and the variational inequality method, we tackle this problem and obtain the optimal strategies and the value function explicitly for the case of constant force of mortality and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility function.     

Optimal portfolio, consumption and retirement decision under a preference change

We investigate an optimal portfolio, consumption and retirement decision problem in which an economic agent can determine the discretionary stopping time as a retirement time with constant labor wage and disutility. We allow the preference of the agent to be changed before and after retirement. It is assumed that the agent's coefficient of relative risk aversion becomes higher after retirement. Under a constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility function, we obtain the optimal policies in closed-forms using martingale methods and variational inequality methods. We give some numerical results of the optimal policies. We also consider the relation between the level of disutility and the labor wage with the optimal retirement wealth level.     

Fuzzy preference orderings in group decision making

In this paper, some use of fuzzy preference orderings in group decision making is discussed. First, fuzzy preference orderings are defined as fuzzy binary relations satisfying reciprocity and max-min transitivity. Then, particularly in the case where individual preferences are represented by utility functions (utility values), group fuzzy preference orderings of which fuzziness is caused by differences or diversity of individual opinions are defined. Those orderings might be useful for proceeding the group decision making process smoothly, in the same manner as the extended contributive rule method.     

Learning intransitive reciprocal relations with kernel methods

In different fields like decision making, psychology, game theory and biology, it has been observed that paired-comparison data like preference relations defined by humans and animals can be intransitive. Intransitive relations cannot be modeled with existing machine learning methods like ranking models, because these models exhibit strong transitivity properties. More specifically, in a stochastic context, where often the reciprocity property characterizes probabilistic relations such as choice probabilities, it has been formally shown that ranking models always satisfy the well-known strong stochastic transitivity property. Given this limitation of ranking models, we present a new kernel function that together with the regularized least-squares algorithm is capable of inferring intransitive reciprocal relations in problems where transitivity violations cannot be considered as noise. In this approach it is the kernel function that defines the transition from learning transitive to learning intransitive relations, and the Kronecker-product is introduced for representing the latter type of relations. In addition, we empirically demonstrate on two benchmark problems, one in game theory and one in theoretical biology, that our algorithm outperforms methods not capable of learning intransitive reciprocal relations.     

Kernel-based learning methods for preference aggregation

The mathematical representation of human preferences has been a subject of study for researchers in different fields. In multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) and fuzzy modeling, preference models are typically constructed by interacting with the human decision maker (DM). However, it is known that a DM often has difficulties to specify precise values for certain parameters of the model. He/she instead feels more comfortable to give holistic judgements for some of the alternatives. Inference and elicitation procedures then assist the DM to find a satisfactory model and to assess unjudged alternatives. In a related but more statistical way, machine learning algorithms can also infer preference models with similar setups and purposes, but here less interaction with the DM is required/allowed. In this article we discuss the main differences between both types of inference and, in particular, we present a hybrid approach that combines the best of both worlds. This approach consists of a very general kernel-based framework for constructing and inferring preference models. Additive models, for which interpretability is preserved, and utility models can be considered as special cases. Besides generality, important benefits of this approach are its robustness to noise and good scalability. We show in detail how this framework can be utilized to aggregate single-criterion outranking relations, resulting in a flexible class of preference models for which domain knowledge can be specified by a DM.      

Fuzzy set approach to the utility,preference relations,and aggregation operators

Score x = (x₁, … , x_n) describing an alternative α is modelled by means of a continuous quasi-convex fuzzy quantity μ_α = μ_x, thus allowing to compare alternatives (scores) by means of fuzzy ordering (comparison) methods. Applying some defuzzification method leads to the introduction of operators acting on scores. A special stress is put on the Mean of Maxima defuzzification method allowing to introduce several averaging aggregation operators. Moreover, our approach allows to introduce weights into above mentioned aggregation, even in the non-anonymous (non-symmetric) case. Finally, Ordered Weighted Aggregation Operators (OWAO) are introduced, generalizing the standard OWA operators.     

Comparison of fuzzy sets on the same decision space

Some methods of making fuzzy decisions include a comparison of fuzzy sets on the same space. Methods have been published which suffer from lack of discrimination between alternatives and occasional conflict with intuitive choice. These methods are reviewed in this paper and then a new approach is described which overcomes their drawbacks. Methods of evaluating the parameter used in decision-making are given which can be varied to incorporate different utility functions.     

Enabling e-transactions with multi-attribute preference models

This paper describes potential applications of multi-attribute preference models (MAPM) in e-commerce and offers some guidelines for their implementation. MAPM are methodologies for modeling complex preferences that depend on more than one attribute or criterion, and include multi-attribute utility theory, conjoint analysis, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. There are numerous examples of applications in e-commerce that would benefit from the acquisition of information regarding the preferences of a consumer, a customer, an advice seeker, or a decision maker. Here, the focus is on applications of MAPM models in B2C and B2B websites, where preferences of consumers are assessed for the purpose of identifying products or services that closely match their needs.     

Baseline value specification and sensitivity analysis in multiattribute project portfolio selection

A key issue in applying multi-attribute project portfolio models is specifying the baseline value – a parameter which defines how valuable not implementing a project is relative to the range of possible project values. In this paper we present novel baseline value specification techniques which admit incomplete preference statements and, unlike existing techniques, make it possible to model problems where the decision maker would prefer to implement a project with the least preferred performance level in each attribute. Furthermore, we develop computational methods for identifying the optimal portfolios and the value-to-cost -based project rankings for all baseline values. We also show how these results can be used to (i) analyze how sensitive project and portfolio decision recommendations are to variations in the baseline value and (ii) provide project decision recommendations in a situation where only incomplete information about the baseline value is available.     

Robust multi-criteria ranking with additive value models and holistic pair-wise preference statements

We consider a problem of ranking alternatives based on their deterministic performance evaluations on multiple criteria. We apply additive value theory and assume the Decision Maker’s (DM) preferences to be representable with general additive monotone value functions. The DM provides indirect preference information in form of pair-wise comparisons of reference alternatives, and we use this to derive the set of compatible value functions. Then, this set is analyzed to describe (1) the possible and necessary preference relations, (2) probabilities of the possible relations, (3) ranges of ranks the alternatives may obtain, and (4) the distributions of these ranks. Our work combines previous results from Robust Ordinal Regression, Extreme Ranking Analysis and Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis under a unified decision support framework. We show how the four different results complement each other, discuss extensions of the main proposal, and demonstrate practical use of the approach by considering a problem of ranking 20 European countries in terms of 4 criteria reflecting the quality of their universities.     

Systematic analysis of framing bias in missile defense: Implications toward visualization design

This paper examines the effects of framing on decision making in a homeland missile defense context across three tasks of varying complexity. Mathematically, each task was modeled as abstractions from a common resource allocation task. Logically, therefore, the effects of framing on human subjects should have been consistent across all the tasks. In the first experiment, a simple lottery was used to determine risk postures in a single-attribute case of missile defense. Results showed that, consistent with Prospect Theory, positive framing promotes risk-averse behavior whereas negative framing promotes risk-seeking behavior. In the second experiment, we used the Analytic Hierarchy Process to determine subject rankings in a multi-attribute case of missile defense. Results suggest that subjects’ performances under positive framing were significantly better than performances under negative framing. In the third experiment, we used a human-in-the-loop simulation to elicit human decisions in a missile defense resource allocation task. In comparison to the other experiments, the framing effect in the third experiment was diminished. We submit that decision biases detected in a simple choice task cannot be assumed to carry over to tasks of greater complexity even if the underlying mathematical formulation for all the tasks is the same. Moreover, we submit that the design of the graphical interface has a greater influence on human judgment bias than framing in tasks of higher complexity.     

Estimation methods for choice-based conjoint analysis of consumer preferences

Conjoint analysis, a preference measurement method typical in marketing research, has gradually expanded to other disciplines. Choice-based conjoint analysis (CBC) is currently the most popular type. Very few alternative estimation approaches have been suggested since the introduction of the Hierarchical Bayes (HB) method for estimating CBC utility functions. Studies that compare the performance of more than one of the proposed approaches and the HB are almost non- existing. We compare the performance of four published optimization-based procedures and additionally we introduce a new one called CP. The CP is an estimation approach based on convex penalty minimization. In comparison with HB as the benchmark we use eight field data sets. We base the performance comparisons on holdout validation, i.e. predictive performance. Among the optimization based procedures CP performs best. We run simulations to compare the extent to which CP and HB can recover the true utilities. With the field data on the average, the CP and HB results are equally good. However, depending on the problem characteristics, one may perform better than the other. In terms of average performance, the other four methods were inferior to CP and HB.     

Decision making under uncertainty with unknown utility function and rank-ordered probabilities

We consider the ranking of decision alternatives in decision analysis problems under uncertainty, under very weak assumptions about the type of utility function and information about the probabilities of the states of nature. Namely, the following two assumptions are required for the suggested method: the utility function is in the class of increasing continuous functions, and the probabilities of the states of nature are rank-ordered. We develop a simple analytical method for the partial ranking of decision alternatives under the stated assumptions. This method does not require solving optimization programs and is free of the rounding errors.