基于Hurwicz准则的不确定养老金最优投资策略问题

本文提出一种新的养老金最优投资策略模型,研究了带有不确定工资过程的DC型养老金最优投资策略问题.以二次损失函数的Hurwicz加权平均值最小化为目标,针对两类相对财富过程,给出了养老金最优投资策略的显式表达式.最后,通过数值分析,研究了模型参数对最优投资策略的影响.     

指数族下参数双边检验的p-值

在单参数指数族下,对参数的双侧检验问题给出了一致最优检验或一致最优无偏检验的p-值;在多参数指数族下,对单个参数双侧检验问题给出了一致最优无偏检验的p-值.在正态总体下,给出了几个计算上述p-值的例子.     

单纯形法解装卸工问题

本文提出装卸工问题,对一种特殊情况下的装卸工问题用单纯形方法求得了它的最优解和最优值.     

一个具有绝对拥挤性的政府消费性支出模型

本文研究了随机内生增长模型中具有绝对拥挤性的政府消费性支出.利用改进的连续时间随机分析方法--"附加效用"值函数法,获得了个体的最优消费、随机经济增长路径和个体的最优福利.     

非线性参数规划问题ε-最优解集集值映射的连续性

对非线性参数规划问题ε-最优解集集值映射的连续性条件进行了研究.首先在可行集集值映射局部有界且正则的条件下,讨论了非线性参数规划问题最优值函数的连续性,然后针对ε-最优解集集值映射的结构特征并利用此结果和集值分析理论,给出了非线性参数规划问题ε-最优解集集值映射连续的一个充分条件.     

非线性参数规划问题$\varepsilon$-最优解集集值映射的连续性

对非线性参数规划问题$\varepsilon$-最优解集集值映射的连续性条件进行了研究.首先在可行集集值映射局部有界且正则的条件下,讨论了非线性参数规划问题最优值函数的连续性,然后针对$\varepsilon$-最优解集集值映射的结构特征并利用此结果和集值分析理论,给出了非线性参数规划问题$\varepsilon$-最优解集集值映射连续的一个充分条件.     

房地产开发的最优时间和最优强度

房地产投资具有许多不确定性,对房地产投资进行评估尤为重要.利用实物期权理论,对房地产投资进行建模分析,确定出最优开发时间和最优开发强度;最后根据模型推导出来的结论进行数值分析.     

具有常量红利界的带干扰项的风险模型及最优红利界

对于保险公司来说,如何确定其红利策略,使得投保人利益最大化是一个需要研究的课题.研究了具有常量红利界的带干扰项的经典风险模型下,索赔量为混合指数分布情形时的最优红利界的计算方法.     

相同装卸工情况下装卸工问题的最优解

装卸工问题是一个新的NP困难的组合最优化问题,寻找其性能优良的近似算法是有重要的理论意义和实用价值的.相同装卸工情况下装卸工问题的系数矩阵是全么模矩阵,利用全么模矩阵的性质可以证明这种情况下的装卸工问题是多项式可解的.然而用全么模阵的性质还不能得到解的表达式.对这种情况下一辆货车的装卸工问题,用对偶单纯形法可得到最优解和最优值的解析表达式,从而可以把这个可解问题的最优值作为一般装卸工问题的近似值.这对于分析近似算法的性态是非常重要的.     

工期与收益的最优化模型

运用经济学原理及最优决策方案 ,建立了如何选择最优工期和制定奖惩措施的动态优化模型 .利用泛函变分法求出在各种情况下的最优工期 ,并确定出影响最优工期的各种因素 ;然后确定出使双方都有利的激励强度 ;最后利用计算机对模型进行了模拟分析 ,并对结果给出了详细的分析 .     

Budget-constrained optimal insurance with belief heterogeneity

We re-examine the problem of budget-constrained demand for insurance indemnification when the insured and the insurer disagree about the likelihoods associated with the realizations of the insurable loss. For ease of comparison with the classical literature, we adopt the original setting of Arrow (1971), but allow for divergence in beliefs between the insurer and the insured; and in particular for singularity between these beliefs, that is, disagreement about zero-probability events. We do not impose the no sabotage condition on admissible indemnities. Instead, we impose a state-verification cost that the insurer can incur in order to verify the loss severity, which rules out ex post moral hazard issues that could otherwise arise from possible misreporting of the loss by the insured. Under a mild consistency requirement between these beliefs that is weaker than the Monotone Likelihood Ratio (MLR) condition, we characterize the optimal indemnity and show that it has a simple two-part structure: full insurance on an event to which the insurer assigns zero probability, and a variable deductible on the complement of this event, which depends on the state of the world through a likelihood ratio. The latter is obtained from a Lebesgue decomposition of the insured’s belief with respect to the insurer’s belief.     

Optimal risk retention under partial insurance

This paper examines the situation where a risk-averse insured determines the optimal amount of deductible (or stop-loss) insurance. The insurer uses two different premium principles, the expected value principle and the exponential principle. The insured has an exponential utility function. Specific numerical results are obtained for the optimal stop-loss limit in the case of a group life insurance plan. The exact results are contrasted with those obtained by using the normal approximation instead of the exact distribution of aggregate claims.     

Equilibrium relationships between insurance and self-protection activity

When an insured understakes some costly self-protection activity that reduces the probability of loss, a competitive insurer will increase the insurance coverage, given a fixed premium per dollar of coverage, to reflect the lower insurance risk.However, an imperfectly informed insurer cannot correctly adjust the coverage; while he can observe the self-protection activity of the insured, the insurer cannot determine the cost to the insured of such activity, nor can the insurer determine the reduction in the loss probability of the insured due to the self-protection activity.This paper demonstrates in an equilibrium model that insurers may be able to use the amount of self-protection activity by an insured as a screen to indicate to the insurer what the loss probability of the insured is, thus allowing the insurer to provide correctly priced insurance to all individuals. The model points out that insurers operating in a market with moral hazard may be able to overcome the adverse incentives of insureds by selectively offering certain insurance contracts contingent upon the insured meeting certain screening requirements; in the model here, self-protection activity is the screen.     

基于新巴塞尔协议监管下保险人的均值-方差最优投资-再保险问题

本文研究了均值-方差优化准则下,保险人的最优投资和最优再保险问题.我们用一个复合泊松过程模型来拟合保险人的风险过程,保险人可以投资无风险资产和价格服从跳跃-扩散过程的风险资产.此外保险人还可以购买新的业务(如再保险).本文的限制条件为投资和再保险策略均非负,即不允许卖空风险资产,且再保险的比例系数非负.除此之外,本文还引入了新巴塞尔协议对风险资产进行监管,使用随机二次线性(linear-quadratic,LQ)控制理论推导出最优值和最优策略.对应的哈密顿-雅克比-贝尔曼(Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman,HJB)方程不再有古典解.在粘性解的框架下,我们给出了新的验证定理,并得到有效策略(最优投资策略和最优再保险策略)的显式解和有效前沿.     

保险中遏制投保人逆向选择的博弈策略分析

以投保人的风险类型难于鉴别的逆向选择问题为研究对象,建立了投保人与保险公司的双人非零和博弈模型,并求解得出了该博弈的混合策略纳什均衡点,从而得出重罚有利于遏制投保人的逆向选择以及使保险公司的期望利润为零的保险定价公式.     

基于均值-方差准则的保险公司最优投资策略

研究了保险公司在均值-方差准则下的最优投资问题,其中保险公司的盈余过程由带随机扰动的Cramer-Lundberg模型刻画,而且保险公司可将其盈余投资于无风险资产和一种风险资产.利用随机动态规划方法,通过求解相应的HJB方程,得到了均值方差模型的最优投资策略和有效前沿.最后,给出了数值算例说明扰动项对有效前沿的影响.     

Optimal insurance design in the presence of exclusion clauses

The present work studies the design of an optimal insurance policy from the perspective of an insured, where the insurable loss is mutually exclusive from another loss that is denied in the insurance coverage. To reduce ex post moral hazard, we assume that both the insured and the insurer would pay more for a larger realization of the insurable loss. When the insurance premium principle preserves the convex order, we show that any admissible insurance contract is suboptimal to a two-layer insurance policy under the criterion of minimizing the insured’s total risk exposure quantified by value at risk, tail value at risk or an expectile. The form of optimal insurance can be further simplified to be one-layer by imposing an additional weak condition on the premium principle. Finally, we use Wang’s premium principle and the expected value premium principle to illustrate the applicability of our results, and find that optimal insurance solutions are affected not only by the size of the excluded loss but also by the risk measure chosen to quantify the insured’s risk exposure.     

VaR Criteria for optimal limited change-loss and truncated change-loss reinsurance

Reinsurance can provide an effective way for insurer to manage its risk exposure. In this paper, we further analyze the optimal reinsurance models recently proposed by J. Cai and K. S. Tan [Astin Bulletin, 2007, 37(1): 93-112]. With the criteria of minimizing the value-at-risk (VaR) risk measure of insurer’s total loss exposure, we derive the optimal values of sharing proportion a, retention d, and layer l of two reinsurance treaties: the limited changeloss f(x) = a{(x - d)+ - (x - l)+} and the truncated change-loss f(x) = a(x-d)₊I_(x≤l). Both of the reinsurance plans have been considered to be more realistic and practical in the real business. Our solutions have several appealing features: (i) there is only one condition to verify for the existence of optimal limited change-loss reinsurance while there always exists an optimal truncated change-loss reinsurance, (ii) the resulting optimal parameters have simple analytic forms which depend only on assumed loss distribution, reinsurer’s safety loading, and insurer’s risk tolerance, (iii) the optimal retention d for limited change-loss reinsurance is the same as that by Cai and Tan while the optimal value is smaller for truncated change-loss, (iv) the optimal sharing proportion and layer are always the same for both reinsurance plans, (v) minimized VaR are strictly lower than the values derived by Cai and Tan, (vi) the optimization results reveal possible drawbacks of VaR-based risk management that a heavy tail risk exposure may be expressed by lower VaR.     

Optimal insurance under the insurer’s risk constraint

In this paper, we impose the insurer’s risk constraint on Arrow’s optimal insurance model. The insured aims to maximize his/her expected utility of terminal wealth, under the constraint that the insurer wishes to control the expected loss of his/her terminal wealth below some prespecified level. We solve the problem, and it is shown that when the insurer’s risk constraint is binding, the solution to the problem is not linear, but piecewise linear deductible. Moreover, it can be shown that the insured’s optimal expected utility will increase if the insurer increases his/her risk tolerance.     

最优多期比例再保险策略的必要条件

研究最小化保险公司破产概率的最优多期比例再保险策略,给出了保险公司最小破产概率的一个递归表达式,证明了可用动态规划方法求解此类问题.在此基础上,我们推导出最优多期比例再保险策略的几个必要条件.