On the covariance of the asymptotic empirical copula process

Conditions are given under which the empirical copula process associated with a random sample from a bivariate continuous distribution has a smaller asymptotic covariance function than the standard empirical process based on observations from the copula. Illustrations are provided and consequences for inference are outlined.     

Detecting distributional changes in samples of independent block maxima using probability weighted moments

The analysis of seasonal or annual block maxima is of interest in fields such as hydrology, climatology or meteorology. In connection with the celebrated method of block maxima, we study several tests that can be used to assess whether the available series of maxima is identically distributed. It is assumed that block maxima are independent but not necessarily generalized extreme value distributed. The asymptotic null distributions of the test statistics are investigated and the practical computation of approximate p-values is addressed. Extensive Monte-Carlo simulations show the adequate finite-sample behavior of the studied tests for a large number of realistic data generating scenarios. Illustrations on several environmental datasets conclude the work.     

On approximating max-stable processes and constructing extremal copula functions

There is an infinite number of parameters in the definition of multivariate maxima of moving maxima (M4) processes, which poses challenges in statistical applications where workable models are preferred. This paper establishes sufficient conditions under which an M4 process with infinite number of parameters may be approximated by an M4 process with finite number of parameters. In statistical inferences, the paper focuses on a family of sectional multivariate extreme value copula (SMEVC) functions which is derived from the joint distribution functions of M4 processes. A new non-standard parameter estimation procedure is introduced, which is based on order statistics of ratios of (transformed) marginal unit Fréchet random variables, and is shown via simulation to be more efficient than a semi-parametric estimation procedure. In real data analysis, empirical results show that SMEVCs are more flexible for modeling various dependence structures, and perform better than the widely used Gumbel-Hougaard copulas.     

Limiting distributions of maxima under triangular schemes

A well-known result in extreme value theory indicates that componentwise taken sample maxima of random vectors are asymptotically independent under weak conditions. However, in important cases this independence is attained at a very slow rate so that the residual dependence structure plays a significant role.In the present article, we deduce limiting distributions of maxima under triangular schemes of random vectors. The residual dependence is expressed by a technical condition imposed on the spectral expansion of the underlying distribution.     

Asymptotic expansions of the moments of extremes from general error distribution

In this paper, we derive the asymptotic expansions of the moments of normalized partial maxima for general error distribution. A byproduct is to deduce the convergence rates of the moments of normalized maxima to the moments of the corresponding extreme value distribution.     

Strong Domain of Attraction of Extreme Generalized Order Statistics

It is a well-known result in extreme value theory that the von Mises conditions imply the strong convergence of extreme order statistics. We extend this result to extreme generalized order statistics. A characterization of strong domains of attraction of joint distributions of a fixed number of extreme generalized order statistics by means of the corresponding result for generalized maxima is given. In particular, we determine the asymptotic joint distribution of (upper and lower) extreme generalized order statistics. Finally, we show that the Hill estimator based on extreme generalized order statistics is asymptotic normal.     

Testing the Gumbel Hypothesis Via the Pot-Method

We consider an i.i.d. sample, generated by some distribution function, which belongs to the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution with unknown shape and scale parameters. We treat the scale parameter as a nuisance parameter and establish for the hypothesis of Gumbel domain of attraction an asymptotically optimal test based on those observations among the sample, which exceed a given threshold sequence. Asymptotic optimality is achieved along certain contiguous extreme value alternatives within the concept of local asymptotic normality (LAN). Adaptive test procedures exist under restrictive assumptions. The finite sample size behavior of the proposed test is studied by simulations and it is compared to that of a test based on the sample coefficient of variation.     

Higher-order expansions of distributions of maxima in a Hüsler-Reiss model

The max-stable Hüsler-Reiss distribution which arises as the limit distribution of maxima of bivariate Gaussian triangular arrays has been shown to be useful in various extreme value models. For such triangular arrays, this paper establishes higher-order asymptotic expansions of the joint distribution of maxima under refined Hüsler-Reiss conditions. In particular, the rate of convergence of normalized maxima to the Hüsler-Reiss distribution is explicitly calculated. Our findings are supported by the results of a numerical analysis.     

二元极值分布混合模型的矩估计

极值理论在各个领域得到了越来越多的关注和应用, 尤其是多元极值分布. 而矩估计是一种经典的参数估计方法, 计算简单且具有某些优良性, 本文给出边缘为标准指数分布的二元极值混合模型相关参数的矩估计及其渐近方差. 并将其与极大似然估计的渐近方差比较, 结果表明矩估计是一个较好的估计.     

Non-Parametric Estimation of the Limit Dependence Function of Multivariate Extremes

This paper presents a new estimation procedure for the limit distribution of the maximum of a multivariate random sample. This procedure relies on a new and simple relationship between the copula of the underlying multivariate distribution function and the dependence function of its maximum attractor. The obtained characterization is then used to define a class of kernel-based estimates for the dependence function of the maximum attractor. The consistency and the asymptotic distribution of these estimates are considered.     

Estimating the spectral measure of an extreme value distribution

Let (X₁, Y₁), (X₂, Y₂),…, (X_n, Y_n) be a random sample from a bivariate distribution function F which is in the domain of attraction of a bivariate extreme value distribution function G. This G is characterized by the extreme value indices and its spectral measure or angular measure. The extreme value indices determine both the marginals and the spectral measure determines the dependence structure. In this paper, we construct an empirical measure, based on the sample, which is a consistent estimator of the spectral measure. We also show for positive extreme value indices the asymptotic normality of the estimator under a suitable 2nd order strengthening of the bivariate domain of attraction condition.     

Tests of symmetry for bivariate copulas

Tests are proposed for the hypothesis that the underlying copula of a continuous random pair is symmetric. The procedures are based on Cramér–von Mises and Kolmogorov–Smirnov functionals of a rank-based empirical process whose large-sample behaviour is obtained. The asymptotic validity of a re-sampling method to compute P values is also established. The technical arguments supporting the use of a Chi-squared test due to Jasson are also presented. A power study suggests that the proposed tests are more powerful than Jasson’s procedure under many scenarios of copula asymmetry. The methods are illustrated on a nutrient data set.     

Extreme behavior of bivariate elliptical distributions

This paper exploits a stochastic representation of bivariate elliptical distributions in order to obtain asymptotic results which are determined by the tail behavior of the generator. Under certain specified assumptions, we present the limiting distribution of componentwise maxima, the limiting upper copula, and a bivariate version of the classical peaks over threshold result.     

����Copula������Ӧ��-ǿ��ģ�Ϳɿ��ȵķDz�������

In this paper, a nonparametric method for reliability of the stress-strength model is proposed when the dependent stress variable and strength variable are subject to right censoring. The dependence between variables is measured by the common Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern copula function and Clayton copula function. Using the empirical process theory, consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is established in this paper. The results of numerical simulation show that the proposed method performs well in the case of finite sample. The method proposed in this paper has a wide application prospect in practice.     

Extreme Values in ON/OFF Models of Teletraffic under Permanent and Periodic Measurements

The asymptotic behavior of stream intensity extreme values in ON/OFF models of teletraffic under permanent and periodic measurements is studied. It is assumed that the intensity of each source has a distribution with a heavy (regularly varying) tail. A joint limiting distribution for maxima with a common linear normalization, marginal distributions, and the distribution of the maxima ratio are obtained. The extremal index for a sequence of periodic measurements is calculated.     

Nonparametric estimation of an extreme-value copula in arbitrary dimensions

Inference on an extreme-value copula usually proceeds via its Pickands dependence function, which is a convex function on the unit simplex satisfying certain inequality constraints. In the setting of an i.i.d. random sample from a multivariate distribution with known margins and an unknown extreme-value copula, an extension of the Capéraà-Fougères-Genest estimator was introduced by D. Zhang, M. T. Wells and L. Peng [Nonparametric estimation of the dependence function for a multivariate extreme-value distribution, Journal of Multivariate Analysis 99 (4) (2008) 577-588]. The joint asymptotic distribution of the estimator as a random function on the simplex was not provided. Moreover, implementation of the estimator requires the choice of a number of weight functions on the simplex, the issue of their optimal selection being left unresolved.A new, simplified representation of the CFG-estimator combined with standard empirical process theory provides the means to uncover its asymptotic distribution in the space of continuous, real-valued functions on the simplex. Moreover, the ordinary least-squares estimator of the intercept in a certain linear regression model provides an adaptive version of the CFG-estimator whose asymptotic behavior is the same as if the variance-minimizing weight functions were used. As illustrated in a simulation study, the gain in efficiency can be quite sizable.     

Normal tempered stable copula

In this paper, we discuss a copula defined by the Gaussian subordination method. The copula can capture the dependence between extreme events, and asymmetric dependence, which are observed in empirical financial return distributions. We further perform an empirical test for this new copula against the standard Gaussian copula using 10 years daily returns of the Standard&Poor’s 500 (S&P500) and the Deutscher Aktien Index (DAX) equity market indices.     

The empirical bayes rules with floating optimal sample size for exponential conditional distributions

Summary We consider the empirical Bayes solution in such a situation where the sample size is successively determined by a rule which includes the Bayes risks and the observation costs. The empirical Bayes floating optimal sample size depends on current as well as on previous information assumed to be collected from earlier performances of similar decisions. The sampling is done from an exponential conditional distribution, with a single parameter. The proofs, which show the asymptotic optimality of the empirical Bayes solution, are presented for a hypotheses-testing problem. A straight generalization to a multiple decision problem is also given.