The outer continental shelf oil and gas supply model of the energy information administration

In evaluating future United States oil and gas supplies, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) maintains separate modeling activities for the three major producing regions: the onshore lower 48 states, Alaska, and the outer continental shelf (OCS) of the lower 48 states. The choice of different modeling approaches is conditioned by the unique economic, legal, and physical environments constraining the production activities in each of these regions.This paper describes the EIA's Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Supply Model (OCSM), a new model for evaluating petroleum supply from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. OCSM is a stochastic simulation model representing the economic evaluation, exploration, and development of individual oil and gas fields. This detailed approach is supported by a unique resource base—detailed physical information on individual and as yet undiscovered structures. These data were derived from United States Geological Survey pre-lease sale tract evaluations.The model design parallels the basic activities of the offshore industry and, thus, represents the significant influence of high development costs, alternative technologies, and economies of increasing field size on OCS oil and gas supply. The effects of alternative economic scenarios, leasing rules, and development constraints on future OCS supply may be evaluated.     

The gas analysis modeling system (GAMS)

This paper gives an overview of a large integrated model of the natural gas industry in the United States. The system described has been used to evaluate the impacts of natural gas legislation before the U.S. Congress. Many common operations research tools such as linear programming, dynamic programming and network flow theory are used at various stages in the model.     

A novel Grey Bernoulli model for short-term natural gas consumption forecasting

This paper investigates the natural gas consumption of the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, and Japan by a new Grey Bernoulli model. Analytical formulations of the time response function, restored values, and linear parameters estimation are derived. Further, the nonlinear parameter is determined by the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm based on the linearized form of the model. Three numerical cases are considered to verify the effectiveness of the model. Finally, with observations from 2005 to 2017 claimed by British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, this new model is built to compute the natural gas consumption of the selected countries from 2018 to 2022. The numerical results show that the natural gas consumption will be increasing in the coming years.     

Maximale eindeutige Lösungen (Riemannsche Flächen) für Cauchysche Anfangswertaufgaben bei partiellen Differentialgleichungssystemen erster Ordnung für eine gesuchte Funktion aufC ∞-Mannigfaltigkeiten I

Ohne ZusammenfassungThis paper was — to some extent — prepared when the author was a C. L. E. Moore Instructor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, (Cambridge, Mass.), and this research was supported in part by the United States Air Force under Contract No. AF-49 (638)- 42, monitored by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research of the Air Research and Development Command. —Dies ist ein Teil einer Arbeit, die von der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Rheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität zu Bonn als Habilitationsschrift angenommen wurde.     

Allocating fixed costs or resources and setting targets via data envelopment analysis

In many applications of data envelopment analysis (DEA), there is often a fixed cost or input resource which should be imposed on all decision making units (DMUs). Cook and Zhu [W.D. Cook, J. Zhu, Allocation of shared costs among decision making units: A DEA approach, Computers and Operations Research 32 (2005) 2171-2178] propose a practical DEA approach for such allocation problems. In this paper, we prove that when some special constraints are added, Cook and Zhu’s approach probably has no feasible solution. The research of this paper focuses on two main aspects: to obtain a new fixed costs or resources allocation approach by improving Cook and Zhu’s approach, and to set fixed targets according to the amount of fixed resources shared by individual DMUs. When such special constraints are attached, our model is proved to be able to achieve a feasible costs or resources allocation. Numerical results for an example from the literature are presented to illustrate our approach.     

Shadow price principles applied to regulated pricing of natural gas

Inclusion of the shadow prices for natural gas in a dynamic fuels model for the United States shows that the primary reason for the relatively large, fly-up in new marginal gas prices in the early 1980's was the release of the pent-up price effects of the U.S. government's price regulations. In accordance with principles, the shadow price of natural gas fell siginificantly following de-regulation of the highcost gas (section 107) in 1980, which represented the precursor for downward adjustments in marginal wellhead prices of new high-cost gas and drilling activity. The modeling results show that no significant fly-up in new marginal gas prices for lower-cost gas (section 102) is likely to occur in 1985, when its phased de-regulation ends and it is finally de-regulated, because no shadow price precursor currently exists for this gas. Shadow price principles clear up the primary misconceptions with regard to natural gas pricing. This application indicates the significance of shadow price principles for regulated pricing in general.     

基于SEC准则的油田开发规划不确定优化模型及算法

在油价低迷的国际背景下,上市石油公司进行油田开发规划时越来越重视经营效益。美国证券交易委员会(SEC)要求上市石油公司采用产量法计提折耗,极大地影响了石油公司开发规划方案的制定。油田开发受到自然、技术等多种不确定因素的影响,在制定开发规划时需充分考虑这些不确定性。本文基于不确定理论,考虑措施增油效果和新增投资两类不确定参数,以经营效益最大化和新增投资最小化为目标,构建了基于SEC准则的油田开发规划不确定优化模型,并利用差分进化算法求解,给出措施工作量的帕累托解集。本文以D油田年度规划为例,通过构建模型并求解,给出开发规划方案集,并进一步分析SEC储量的下降对上市石油公司经营效益、新增投资回报率、油气总产量、油气完全成本和措施工作量的影响,为企业制定开发规划方案提供参考。     

Designing and using professional development resources for inquiry-based learning

This paper describes an attempt to design, analyse and refine professional development (PD) resources that encourage the implementation of inquiry-based learning (IBL). We describe the iterative development of the resources in England with over 100 mathematics teachers from secondary, tertiary and adult education and then analyse the impact these resources had on teachers’ beliefs and practices and the issues arising. This evaluation revealed that teachers had moved away from transmission-based orientations, encouraged by the use of less structured tasks and sample lesson plans, but some found it difficult to adopt IBL pedagogies. The most significant issues for teachers may be summarised as: confusing IBL with ‘discovery’ learning; developing and managing collaborative cultures within the classroom; and planning lessons that adapt to the emerging needs of learners.     

GAMBIT-A Linear Programming Model to Balance Transmission Investment and Market Options<Superscript>†</Superscript>

Since the discovery of large-scale reserves of natural gas in the North Sea, the Gas Council has been given extended powers to purchase gas and to transmit it in bulk to the twelve Area Gas Boards. One of the functions of the Gas Council's Economic Planning Division is to determine the economic balance of the revenue obtainable from the large industrial markets and the costs of purchasing gas and constructing a national transmission system to supply the load. The paper describes the formulation of one of the mathematical models being used for planning studies and discusses the reasons for the choice of a linear programming package and the selection of objective function. The paper also describes a series of studies undertaken and the results obtained, together with some conclusions as to the effectiveness of the model as a planning tool.     

A control-theoretic approach to the plasma confinement problem

The problem of confining a collisionless plasma by means of external electromagnetic fields is formulated as an optimal control or variational problem. The paper begins with a formal development of the equations governing the plasma motion. Then, various mathematical formulations of the confinement problem are discussed. Specific results are obtained for the simplified case where confinement is achieved by means of a spatially uniform, time-varying magnetic field. Physical interpretations of these results are also given.This work was supported by the Office of Scientific Research of the United States Air Force under Grant No. AFOSR-68-1547.     

Domestic crude oil resource appraisal

This paper endeavours to estimate the cummulative level of discovery and production of crude oil in the United States where the importance of price and technological change is considered. Two separate functional specifications for the cumulative level are hypothesized and estimated. The results suggest that between 170 and 180 billion barrels will be ultimately recoverable of which 117 billion barrels have been produced through the end of 1989.     

Carbon emissions and resources use by Chinese economy 2007: A 135-sector inventory and input–output embodiment

A 135-sector inventory and embodiment analysis for carbon emissions and resources use by Chinese economy 2007 is presented in this paper by an ecological input–output modeling based on the physical entry scheme. Included emissions and resources belong to six categories as: (1) greenhouse gas (GHG) in terms of CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O; (2) energy in terms of coal, crude oil, natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power, and firewood; (3) water in terms of freshwater; (4) exergy in terms of coal, crude oil, natural gas, grain, bean, tuber, cotton, peanut, rapeseed, sesame, jute, sugarcane, sugar beet, tobacco, silkworm feed, tea, fruits, vegetables, wood, bamboo, pulp, meat, egg, milk, wool, aquatic products, iron ore, copper ore, bauxite, lead ore, zinc ore, pyrite, phosphorite, gypsum, cement, nuclear fuel, and hydropower; (5) and (6) solar and cosmic emergies in terms of sunlight, wind power, deep earth heat, chemical power of rain, geopotential power of rain, chemical power of stream, geopotential power of stream, wave power, geothermal power, tide power, topsoil loss, coal, crude oil, natural gas, ferrous metal ore, non-ferrous metal ore, non-metal ore, cement, and nuclear fuel. Accounted based on the embodied intensities are carbon emissions and resources use embodied in the final use as rural consumption, urban consumption, government consumption, gross fixed capital formation, change in inventories, and export, as well as in the international trade balance. The resulted database is basic to environmental account of carbon emissions and resources use at various levels.     

Theorems in the additive theory of numbers

Summary This paper extends some earlier results on difference sets andB ₂ sequences bySinger, Bose, Erd?s andTuran, andChowla. This research was supported in part by the United States Air Force through the Air Force Office of Scientific Research of the Air Research and Development Command, under Contract No. AF 49 (638)-213. Reproduction in whole or part is permitted for any purpose of the United States Government.     

Optimization of natural gas production by waterflooding

This paper discusses optimization of natural gas production using waterflooding of a gas reservoir. The functions governing the rate of gas withdrawal and the rate of water injection control the operation of the reservoir. These, together with volume and mass balance and the ideal gas law, give a simple system of ordinary differential equations modelling the reservoir. We use several physical and economic definitions of an optimal production rate. Under each definition, we establish the optimal controls. The relation between prices of water and natural gas and the optimal controls is discussed.Work performed under the auspices of the Energy Research and Development Administration.     

Calculus and its teaching: an accumulation effect

The teaching of elementary calculus during the last twenty‐five years in the United States is comparable to the development of the calculus. The development of the calculus and the teaching of calculus share a similar background in that both are characterized by periods of time in which ideas slowly accumulate, awaiting the arrival of some person, who will, with a new method of discovery, synthesize the fragmentary pieces and lift the subject to a higher plane.     

The Development of a Simulation Model for the Operation of the National Gas Transmission System

This paper describes a project undertaken by O.R. in conjunction with a multidisciplinary group within British Gas Headquarters. The group was responsible for determining the liquified natural gas (L.N.G.) required to cover off-shore supply shortfalls (alerts), called the alerts operating margin. Dissatisfaction with the existing method of calculation led to an examination of the underlying assumptions and to the development of a new approach to the problem. This new approach incorporated a simulation model, the core of which was the day-to-day operation of the National Transmission System. The paper charts the development of the simulation model and the way in which interests of individuals in the group affected the course of the project.     

A procedure to design the mainline system in natural gas networks

With the start up of West–East Natural Gas Transmission Project, the construction of natural gas-pipeline will enter on a new era in China. The development tendency will be towards large-diameter, high-pressure and long-distance for natural gas-pipelines. Correspondingly, the life cycle cost of natural gas-pipeline networks is increasing gradually. The mainline system is a vital part of natural gas network systems. The investment required for the mainline system is enormous, usually accounting for 80% of the total investment for this system. In general, the investment required for a gas-pipeline depends on its operating parameters. Therefore, based on the characteristics of gas networks, optimization for investment becomes indispensable to gas networks design. A comprehensive and optimal mathematic model of a gas networks system is established in this paper which considers all the factors influencing the total investment of a gas networks system (e.g. pipe diameter, thickness, pressure, length, compression ratio, etc). From the standpoint of the characteristics of a model comprising both continuous and discrete variables, a new methodology, rank-optimization, is presented. On the basis of this model, a simple and visual high-pressure networks optimization program has been compiled. Furthermore, the developed optimization program has been applied to a practical project and the effects of operating parameters on the total investment have been analyzed. The simulation model in this paper is shown to be an effective method to solve optimization on mainline system in high-pressure gas networks.     

On detection of change points using mean vectors

In this paper, the authors consider the problem of change points within the framework of model selection and propose a procedure for estimating the locations of change points when the number of change points is known. The strong consistency of this procedure is also established. The problem of detecting change points is discussed within the framework of the simultaneous test procedure. The case where the number of change points is unknown will be discussed in another paper.This project is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and by the Air Office of Scientific Research of the United States.     

Fractal analysis of time series in oil and gas production

The peculiarities of fractal characteristics’ calculations for time series are described in this article. An algorithm for calculation of fractal dimension is suggested. It has been proved that the suggested method possesses high accuracy and the rapidity of convergence on the limited number of measurements compared to the methods of covering.The criteria of early diagnosis for changes in the condition of hydrodynamic processes, which do not vary by fractal dimension, have been recommended.The presented method is applicable for practical engineering calculations with self-affine, chaotic data, usually with relatively limited number of measurements. It is quite a simple method for calculation of fractal dimension, algorithm can be easily realized and it should be useful for engineers.The applicability of the proposed algorithm for fractal dimension calculation and early diagnosis criteria of qualitative changes in the behaviour of various dynamic systems has been tested both on simulated as well as practical examples of oil and gas production.