A hybrid intelligent algorithm for portfolio selection problem with fuzzy returns

Portfolio selection theory with fuzzy returns has been well developed and widely applied. Within the framework of credibility theory, several fuzzy portfolio selection models have been proposed such as mean–variance model, entropy optimization model, chance constrained programming model and so on. In order to solve these nonlinear optimization models, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed by integrating simulated annealing algorithm, neural network and fuzzy simulation techniques, where the neural network is used to approximate the expected value and variance for fuzzy returns and the fuzzy simulation is used to generate the training data for neural network. Since these models are used to be solved by genetic algorithm, some comparisons between the hybrid intelligent algorithm and genetic algorithm are given in terms of numerical examples, which imply that the hybrid intelligent algorithm is robust and more effective. In particular, it reduces the running time significantly for large size problems.     

Two new models for portfolio selection with stochastic returns taking fuzzy information

This paper proposes two new models for portfolio selection in which the security returns are stochastic variables with fuzzy information. A hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed to solve the optimization problem which is otherwise hard to solve with the existing algorithms due to the complexity of the return variables. To illustrate the modelling idea and to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, two numerical examples are provided.     

Mean-variance-skewness model for portfolio selection with fuzzy returns

Numerous empirical studies show that portfolio returns are generally asymmetric, and investors would prefer a portfolio return with larger degree of asymmetry when the mean value and variance are same. In order to measure the asymmetry of fuzzy portfolio return, a concept of skewness is defined as the third central moment in this paper, and its mathematical properties are studied. As an extension of the fuzzy mean-variance model, a mean-variance-skewness model is presented and the corresponding variations are also considered. In order to solve the proposed models, a genetic algorithm integrating fuzzy simulation is designed. Finally, several numerical examples are given to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.     

Portfolio selection based on fuzzy cross-entropy

In this paper, the Kapur cross-entropy minimization model for portfolio selection problem is discussed under fuzzy environment, which minimizes the divergence of the fuzzy investment return from a priori one. First, three mathematical models are proposed by defining divergence as cross-entropy, average return as expected value and risk as variance, semivariance and chance of bad outcome, respectively. In order to solve these models under fuzzy environment, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed by integrating numerical integration, fuzzy simulation and genetic algorithm. Finally, several numerical examples are given to illustrate the modeling idea and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.     

A cutting plane algorithm for MV portfolio selection model

This paper deals with a portfolio selection problem with fuzzy return rates. A possibilistic mean variance (FMVC) portfolio selection model was proposed. The possibilistic programming problem can be transformed into a linear optimal problem with an additional quadratic constraint by possibilistic theory. For such problems there are no special standard algorithms. We propose a cutting plane algorithm to solve (FMVC). The nonlinear programming problem can be solved by sequence linear programming problem. A numerical example is given to illustrate the behavior of the proposed model and algorithm.     

Mean-semivariance models for fuzzy portfolio selection

This paper discusses portfolio selection problem in fuzzy environment. In the paper, semivariance is originally presented for fuzzy variable, and three properties of the semivariance are proven. Based on the concept of semivariance of fuzzy variable, two fuzzy mean-semivariance models are proposed. To solve the new models in general cases, a fuzzy simulation based genetic algorithm is presented in the paper. In addition, two numerical examples are also presented to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the designed algorithm.     

Simulated annealing for complex portfolio selection problems

This paper describes the application of a simulated annealing approach to the solution of a complex portfolio selection model. The model is a mixed integer quadratic programming problem which arises when Markowitz’ classical mean–variance model is enriched with additional realistic constraints. Exact optimization algorithms run into difficulties in this framework and this motivates the investigation of heuristic techniques. Computational experiments indicate that the approach is promising for this class of problems.     

Fuzzy multi-objective programming for supplier selection and risk modeling: A possibility approach

Selection of supply chain partners is an important decision involving multiple criteria and risk factors. This paper proposes a fuzzy multi-objective programming model to decide on supplier selection taking risk factors into consideration. We model a supply chain consisting of three levels and use simulated historical quantitative and qualitative data. We propose a possibility approach to solve the fuzzy multi-objective programming model. Possibility multi-objective programming models are obtained by applying possibility measures of fuzzy events into fuzzy multi-objective programming models. Results indicate when qualitative criteria are considered in supplier selection, the probability of a certain supplier being selected is affected.     

Preference programming for robust portfolio modeling and project selection

In decision analysis, difficulties of obtaining complete information about model parameters make it advisable to seek robust solutions that perform reasonably well across the full range of feasible parameter values. In this paper, we develop the Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM) methodology which extends Preference Programming methods into portfolio problems where a subset of project proposals are funded in view of multiple evaluation criteria. We also develop an algorithm for computing all non-dominated portfolios, subject to incomplete information about criterion weights and project-specific performance levels. Based on these portfolios, we propose a project-level index to convey (i) which projects are robust choices (in the sense that they would be recommended even if further information were to be obtained) and (ii) how continued activities in preference elicitation should be focused. The RPM methodology is illustrated with an application using real data on road pavement projects.     

Ranking alternatives using fuzzy numbers

We investigate the problem of employing expert opinion to rank alternatives across a set of criteria. The experts use fuzzy numbers to express their preferences and we employ fuzzy arithmetic to compute an issue's fuzzy ranking. This leads to a partition of the alternatives into sets H₁, H₂,… where H₁ contains the highest ranked issues, H₂ has all the second highest ranked alternatives, etc. The total ranking process is shown to possess a number of important properties. An example is presented to illustrate the method.     

A multi-objective genetic algorithm for robust flight scheduling using simulation

Traditional methods of developing flight schedules generally do not take into consideration disruptions that may arise during actual operations. Potential irregularities in airline operations such as equipment failure are not adequately considered during the planning stage of a flight schedule. As such, flight schedules cannot be met as planned and their performance is compromised, which may eventually lead to huge losses in revenue for airlines. In this paper, we seek to improve the robustness of a flight schedule by re-timing its departure times. The problem is modeled as a multi-objective optimization problem, and a multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) is developed to solve the problem. To evaluate flight schedules, SIMAIR 2.0, a simulation model which simulates airline operations under operational irregularities, has been employed. The simulation results indicate that we are able to develop schedules with better operation costs and on-time performance through the application of MOGA.     

Genetic algorithms for portfolio selection problems with minimum transaction lots

Conventionally, portfolio selection problems are solved with quadratic or linear programming models. However, the solutions obtained by these methods are in real numbers and difficult to implement because each asset usually has its minimum transaction lot. Methods considering minimum transaction lots were developed based on some linear portfolio optimization models. However, no study has ever investigated the minimum transaction lot problem in portfolio optimization based on Markowitz’ model, which is probably the most well-known and widely used. Based on Markowitz’ model, this study presents three possible models for portfolio selection problems with minimum transaction lots, and devises corresponding genetic algorithms to obtain the solutions. The results of the empirical study show that the portfolios obtained using the proposed algorithms are very close to the efficient frontier, indicating that the proposed method can obtain near optimal and also practically feasible solutions to the portfolio selection problem in an acceptable short time. One model that is based on a fuzzy multi-objective decision-making approach is highly recommended because of its adaptability and simplicity.     

IPSSIS: An integrated multicriteria decision support system for equity portfolio construction and selection

A fundamental principle of modern portfolio theory is that comparisons between portfolios are generally made using two criteria, corresponding to the first two moments of return distributions, namely the expected return and portfolio variance. According to this model and according to most of the portfolio models derived from the stochastic dominance approach, the group of portfolios open to comparisons is divided into two parts: on the one hand there are the efficient portfolios (those that are not dominated by any other portfolio in the group), and on the other, those that are dominated. In other words, these models do not solve for one optimal portfolio, but rather solve for an efficient set of portfolios, among which the investor must choose, given his preference system. One criticism over these models, which has often been addressed both by practitioners and academics, is that they fail to embody the objectives of the decision maker (DM), through the various stages of the decision process. Our purpose in this article is to present an integrated and innovative methodological approach for the construction and selection of equity portfolios, which will take into account the inherent multidimensional nature of the problem, while allowing the DM to incorporate his preferences in the decision process. The proposed approach, which grounds its basis on the field of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) and more specifically on multiobjective mathematical programming (MMP), is implemented in the IPSSIS (Integrated Portfolio Synthesis and Selection Information System) decision support system (DSS). The validity of the proposed approach is tested through an illustrative application in the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE).     

The development of a multi-objective Tabu Search algorithm for continuous optimisation problems

While there have been many adaptations of some of the more popular meta-heuristics for continuous multi-objective optimisation problems, Tabu Search has received relatively little attention, despite its suitability and effectiveness on a number of real-world design optimisation problems. In this paper we present an adaptation of a single-objective Tabu Search algorithm for multiple objectives. Further, inspired by path relinking strategies common in discrete optimisation problems, we enhance our algorithm to allow it to handle problems with large numbers of design variables. This is achieved by a novel parameter selection strategy that, unlike a full parametric analysis, avoids the use of objective function evaluations, thus keeping the overall computational cost of the procedure to a minimum. We assess the performance of our two Tabu Search variants on a range of standard test functions and compare it to a leading multi-objective Genetic Algorithm, NSGA-II. The path relinking-inspired parameter selection scheme gives a clear performance improvement over the basic multi-objective Tabu Search adaptation and both variants perform comparably with the NSGA-II.     

A learning process for fuzzy control rules using genetic algorithms

The purpose of this paper is to present a genetic learning process for learning fuzzy control rules from examples. It is developed in three stages: the first one is a fuzzy rule genetic generating process based on a rule learning iterative approach, the second one combines two kinds of rules, experts rules if there are and the previously generated fuzzy control rules, removing the redundant fuzzy rules, and the thrid one is a tuning process for adjusting the membership functions of the fuzzy rules. The three components of the learning process are developed formulating suitable genetic algorithms.     

Using genetic algorithm for dynamic and multiple criteria web-site optimizations

In today’s competitive electronic marketplace, companies try to create long-lasting relations with their online customers. Log files and registration forms generate millions of online transactions. Companies use new techniques to “mine” these data and establish optimal online storefronts to maximize their web presence. Several criteria, such as minimization of download time, maximization of web-site visualization and product association level, can be used for the optimization of virtual storefronts. This paper introduces a genetic algorithm, to be used in a model-driven decision-support system for web-site optimizations. The algorithm ensures multiple criteria web-site optimizations, and the genetic search provides dynamic and timely solutions independent of the number of objects to be arranged.     

A distributed computation algorithm for solving portfolio problems with integer variables

A portfolio problem with integer variables can facilitate the use of complex models, including models containing discrete asset values, transaction costs, and logical constraints. This study proposes a distributed algorithm for solving a portfolio program to obtain a global optimum. For a portfolio problem with n integer variables, the objective function first is converted into an ellipse function containing n separated quadratic terms. Next, the problem is decomposed into m equal-size separable programming problems solvable by a distributed computation system composed of m personal computers linked via the Internet. The numerical examples illustrate that the proposed method can obtain the global optimum effectively for large scale portfolio problems involving integral variables.     

Heuristic algorithms for the cardinality constrained efficient frontier

This paper examines the application of genetic algorithm, tabu search and simulated annealing metaheuristic approaches to finding the cardinality constrained efficient frontier that arises in financial portfolio optimisation. We consider the mean-variance model of Markowitz as extended to include the discrete restrictions of buy-in thresholds and cardinality constraints. Computational results are reported for publicly available data sets drawn from seven major market indices involving up to 1318 assets. Our results are compared with previous results given in the literature illustrating the effectiveness of the proposed metaheuristics in terms of solution quality and computation time.     

A hybrid genetic algorithm for multiobjective problems with activity analysis-based local search

The objective of this research was the development of a method that integrated an activity analysis model of profits from production with a biophysical model, and included the capacity for optimization over multiple objectives. We specified a hybrid genetic algorithm using activity analysis as a local search method, and NSGA-II for calculation of the multiple objective Pareto optimal set. We describe a parallel computing approach to computation of the genetic algorithm, and apply the algorithm to evaluation of an input tax to regulate pollution from agricultural production.     

Alternative optimality criteria of portfolio selection based upon threshold stopping rule

This paper proposes two types of alternative criteria of optimality for the continuous time portfolio selection problem. The optimality criteria, the so–called Laplace–Stieltjes transform (LST) criteria, are based on the assumption that the financial agent has a target level for the wealth accumulation process. These criteria are closely related to the so–called threshold stopping investment rule. We analytically derive the LST criteria and numerically compare them with the well–known Kelly criterion. It is shown that the portfolio strategies suggested may overcome the problem that the growth portfolio is often overestimated in several investment situations.