Ruin probabilities in the discrete time renewal risk model

In this paper, we study the discrete time renewal risk model, an extension to Gerber’s compound binomial model. Under the framework of this extension, we study the aggregate claim amount process and both finite-time and infinite-time ruin probabilities. For completeness, we derive an upper bound and an asymptotic expression for the infinite-time ruin probabilities in this risk model. Also, we demonstrate that the proposed extension can be used to approximate the continuous time renewal risk model (also known as the Sparre Andersen risk model) as Gerber’s compound binomial model has been proposed as a discrete-time version of the classical compound Poisson risk model. This allows us to derive both numerical upper and lower bounds for the infinite-time ruin probabilities defined in the continuous time risk model from their equivalents under the discrete time renewal risk model. Finally, the numerical algorithm proposed to compute infinite-time ruin probabilities in the discrete time renewal risk model is also applied in some of its extensions.     

Two-sided bounds for the distribution of the deficit at ruin in the renewal risk model

We obtain lower and upper bounds for the severity of ruin in the renewal (Sparre Andersen) model of risk theory. We present two types of bounds: (i) bounds applicable generally; and (ii) exponential bounds for the case where the adjustment coefficient of the risk process exists. Many of these bounds are obtained using existing bounds and the integral equation for the severity of ruin.     

On the renewal risk model with interest and dividend

We consider that the reserve of an insurance company follows a renewal risk process with interest and dividend. For this risk process, we derive integral equations and exact infinite series expressions for the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function. Then we give lower and upper bounds for the ruin probability. Finally, we present exact expressions for the ruin probability in a special case of renewal risk processes.     

变利率风险模型下破产概率的渐近估计

本文考虑变利率的离散时间风险模型的破产概率．在个体净损失服从ERV族和DnL族时,分别得到了有限时间和无限时间破产概率的渐近估计及上下界表达式,并利用matlab软件对有限时间破产概率的下界进行了数值模拟．     

ON THE RENEWAL RISK MODEL WITH INTEREST AND DIVIDEND

We consider that the reserve of an insurance company follows a renewal risk process with interest and dividend. For this risk process, we derive integral equations and exact infinite series expressions for the Cerber-Shiu discounted penalty function. Then we give lower and upper bounds for the ruin probability. Finally, we present exact expressions for the ruin probability in a special case of renewal risk processes.     

Upper bounds for ruin probabilities under stochastic interest rate and optimal investment strategies

In this paper, we study the upper bounds for ruin probabilities of an insurance company which invests its wealth in a stock and a bond. We assume that the interest rate of the bond is stochastic and it is described by a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model. For the stock price process, we consider both the case of constant volatility (driven by an O-U process) and the case of stochastic volatility (driven by a CIR model). In each case, under certain conditions, we obtain the minimal upper bound for ruin probability as well as the corresponding optimal investment strategy by a pure probabilistic method.     

Value at Ruin and Tail Value at Ruin of the Compound Poisson Process with Diffusion and Efficient Computational Methods

We analyze the insurer risk under the compound Poisson risk process perturbed by a Wiener process with infinite time horizon. In the first part of this article, we consider the capital required to have fixed probability of ruin as a measure of risk and then a coherent extension of it, analogous to the tail value at risk. We show how both measures of risk can be efficiently computed by the saddlepoint approximation. We also show how to compute the stabilities of these measures of risk with respect to variations of probability of ruin. In the second part of this article, we are interested in the computation of the probability of ruin due to claim and the probability of ruin due to oscillation. We suggest a computational method based on upper and lower bounds of the probability of ruin and we compare it to the saddlepoint and to the Fast Fourier transform methods. This alternative method can be used to evaluate the proposed measures of risk and their stabilities with heavy-tailed individual losses, where the saddlepoint approximation cannot be used. The numerical accuracy of all proposed methods is very high and therefore these measures of risk can be reliably used in actuarial risk analysis.     

保费依赖向后重现时间过程风险模型的破产概率上界(英文)

本文研究带利率的风险模型,它的索赔计数过程是一个更新计数过程,保费收入依赖于向后重现时间过程.通过鞅方法和递推技术,得到破产概率的两个指数型上界.最后,还研究了几个具体的例子,并且给出上界的数量比较.     

Sparre Andersen模型中破产概率的边界

研究在Andersen Spaxre模型中,当破产概率的初始边界已知的时候,根据更新方程和更新方程中函数的单调性来改进破产概率的边界,并进一步改进了严重损失函数G（x,y）的边界．     

Tail bounds for the distribution of the deficit in the renewal risk model

We obtain upper and lower bounds for the tail of the deficit at ruin in the renewal risk model, which are (i) applicable generally; and (ii) based on reliability classifications. We also derive two-side bounds, in the general case where a function satisfies a defective renewal equation, and we apply them to the renewal model, using the function Λ_u introduced by [Psarrakos, G., Politis, K., 2007. A generalisation of the Lundberg condition in the Sparre Andersen model and some applications (submitted for publication)]. Finally, we construct an upper bound for the integrated function and an asymptotic result when the adjustment coefficient exists.     

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本文考虑了常利力下带干扰的双复合Poisson风险过程, 借助微分和伊藤公式, 分别获得了无限时和有限时生存概率的积分微分方程. 当保费服从指数分布时, 得到了无限时生存概率的微分方程.     

The deficit at ruin in the Sparre Andersen model with interest

In this paper, we consider the Sparre Andersen risk model modified by the inclusion of interest on the surplus. By using the techniques of Cai and Dickson [Ins.: Math. Econ. 32(2003)], we give the functional and also the exponential type upper bounds for the tail probability of the deficit at ruin. Some special cases are also discussed.     

Bounds for the tail distribution in a queue with a superposition of general periodic Markov sources: theory and application

An efficient yet accurate estimation of the tail distribution of the queue length has been considered as one of the most important issues in call admission and congestion controls in ATM networks. The arrival process in ATM networks is essentially a superposition of sources which are typically bursty and periodic either due to their origin or their periodic slot occupation after traffic shaping. In this paper, we consider a discrete-time queue where the arrival process is a superposition of general periodic Markov sources. The general periodic Markov source is rather general since it is assumed only to be irreducible, stationary and periodic. Note also that the source model can represent multiple time-scale correlations in arrivals. For this queue, we obtain upper and lower bounds for the asymptotic tail distribution of the queue length by bounding the asymptotic decay constant. The formulas can be applied to a queue having a huge number of states describing the arrival process. To show this, we consider an MPEG-like source which is a special case of general periodic Markov sources. The MPEG-like source has three time-scale correlations: peak rate, frame length and a group of pictures. We then apply our bound formulas to a queue with a superposition of MPEG-like sources, and provide some numerical examples to show the numerical feasibility of our bounds. Note that the number of states in a Markov chain describing the superposed arrival process is more than 1.4 × 10⁸⁸. Even for such a queue, the numerical examples show that the order of the magnitude of the tail distribution can be readily obtained.     

Upper comonotonicity and convex upper bounds for sums of random variables

It is well-known that if a random vector with given marginal distributions is comonotonic, it has the largest sum with respect to convex order. However, replacing the (unknown) copula by the comonotonic copula will in most cases not reflect reality well. For instance, in an insurance context we may have partial information about the dependence structure of different risks in the lower tail. In this paper, we extend the aforementioned result, using the concept of upper comonotonicity, to the case where the dependence structure of a random vector in the lower tail is already known. Since upper comonotonic random vectors have comonotonic behavior in the upper tail, we are able to extend several well-known results of comonotonicity to upper comonotonicity. As an application, we construct different increasing convex upper bounds for sums of random variables and compare these bounds in terms of increasing convex order.     

Bounds for classical ruin probabilities

We derive upper and lower bounds for the ruin probability over infinite time in the classical actuarial risk model (usual independence and equidistribution assumptions; the claim-number process is Poisson). Our starting point is the renewal equation for the ruin probability, but no renewal theory is used, except for the elementary facts proved in the note. Some bounds allow a very simple new proof of an asymptotic result akin to heavy-tailed claim-size distributions.     

A risk model with renewal shot-noise Cox process

In this paper we generalise the risk models beyond the ordinary framework of affine processes or Markov processes and study a risk process where the claim arrivals are driven by a Cox process with renewal shot-noise intensity. The upper bounds of the finite-horizon and infinite-horizon ruin probabilities are investigated and an efficient and exact Monte Carlo simulation algorithm for this new process is developed. A more efficient estimation method for the infinite-horizon ruin probability based on importance sampling via a suitable change of probability measure is also provided; illustrative numerical examples are also provided.     

一类推广的复合Poisson模型破产概率的上界估计

对于一类推广的复合Poisson风险模型,利用破产概率所满足的一个瑕疵更新方程以及离散寿命分布类的性质获得了关于最终破产概率的函数型上界估计.     

On the ruin probabilities of a bidimensional perturbed risk model

We follow some recent works to study the ruin probabilities of a bidimensional perturbed insurance risk model. For the case of light-tailed claims, using the martingale technique we obtain for the infinite-time ruin probability a Lundberg-type upper bound, which captures certain information of dependence between the two marginal surplus processes. For the case of heavy-tailed claims, we derive for the finite-time ruin probability an explicit asymptotic estimate.     

具有相依结构离散时间模型破产概率的上界

研究两类具有相依结构的离散时间风险模型的破产概率问题.其中,索赔和利率过程假设为2个不同的自回归移动平均模型.利用更新递归技巧,首先得到了该模型下破产概率所满足的递归方程.然后,根据该递归方程得到了破产概率的上界估计.最后对两类风险模型的破产概率的上界进行了比较.     

A note on a dependent risk model with constant interest rate

For a dependent risk model with constant interest rate, in which the claim sizes form a sequence of upper tail asymptotically independent and identically distributed random variables, and their inter-arrival times are another sequence of widely lower orthant dependent and identically distributed random variables, we will give an asymptotically equivalent formula for the finite-time ruin probability. The obtained asymptotics holds uniformly in an arbitrarily finite-time interval.