机电系统全寿命模糊数值模拟

重大机电产品可靠性研究具有广阔的工程背景和较高的经济效益，但其可靠性试验常造成资源浪费和环境污染。为使此类系统可靠性研究可持续发展，介绍一类可采用的模糊一灰色模拟方法，以及虚拟样机技术在此领域的最新突破，同时文中加以丰实的工程实例验证。     

截尾子样下的检验方法在可靠性中的应用

<正> 由于产品可靠性日益提高,使用寿命不断延长,所以在寿命试验中,一般只能进行截尾试验,不易得到全子样数据,因而如何利用截尾数据对产品的寿命分布和有关参数进行假设检验,是可靠性数学问题中值得研究的课题.本文将讨论几种检验方法,并用实例说明这些方法在可靠性工程中的应用.     

蒙特卡罗模拟法在边坡可靠性分析中的运用

江永红．蒙特卡罗模拟法在边坡可靠性分析中的运用．数理统计与管理，１９９８，１７（１），１３～１６．可靠性分析是边坡工程及滑坡治理中的重要研究课题。鉴于决定边坡可靠性的诸变量多为随机变量，本文论述了用蒙特卡罗模拟法计算边坡可靠度的基本原理，对模拟次数确定、计算误差估计等问题提出了解决办法，并结合具体运用说明该方法的实施步骤     

数控机床的人因可靠性分析

应用可靠性工程的理论和方法,在分析数控机床操作工人人为差错分布规律的基础上,研究了数控机床人因可靠性数字特征的求法.     

基于一次性检测数据的统计分析及其在贮存可靠性中的应用

本文讨论了文（３）中极小Ｘ＾２－估计的相合性，并给出了产品可靠性指标的置信限，最后讨论了此方法在贮存可靠性中的应用。     

随机变量增凹函数的平均剩余寿命比较（英文）

平均剩余寿命函数在可靠性工程、生存分析以及许多其他领域中扮演着一个非常重要的角色.在本文中,我们引进并且研究了一个新的随机序,该序用于对两个随机变量严格增凹函数之间的随机比较.证明了该随机序介于故障率序和平均剩余寿命序之间.给出了该序在混合下的封闭性质.最后,我们给出了该序在可靠性理论中的一些应用.     

加速退化因子的研究

主要讨论了可靠性工程中加速退化失效问题中的加速退化因子,给出了Ⅰ、Ⅱ型加速退化因子的定义,并研究了它们之间的关系、性质及其应用.     

第二届全国可靠性数学年会

第二届全国可靠性数学年会于1985年5月14日至17日在上海师范大学召开。来自全国各地可靠性理论工作者和工程师共120人参加会议,会上宣读论文共77篇。这些论文,包括了概率论与数理统计在可靠性理论中的应用和工程课题,反映了近三年来我国在这个领域的研究进展。会议的一个突出特点是中青年代表占绝大多数,其中不少是硕士研究生。青年研究人员队伍的扩大,为我国可靠性数学队伍带来生气。会议期间,魏宋舒教授代表委员会的顾问讲了话。会议以无记名方式选举产生第二届可     

几何分布的参数估计及应用

基于几何分布的一次观察数据，应用假设检验与参数估计的关系给出了几何分布的参数估计方法，并计算了估计偏差和估计量的均方误差，表明该估计是可取的，最后给出了该方法在离散型可靠性增长模型中的应用．     

长寿命产品在小子样缺失数据下的Bayes可靠性增长分析

在长寿命产品的可靠性增长试验过程中,由于人员、观测设备或其他方面的原因,可能会造成某些试验数据丢失或未观测到的现象。对这类小子样变总体缺失数据情形,提出了Bayes可靠性增长分析方法。首先利用Box-Tiao技术构造先验分布,然后利用非齐次Poisson过程原理和缺失数据的产生机制,得到可靠性增长缺失数据的似然函数,再用Bayes统计推断方法得到产品各研制阶段结束时的可靠性水平,同时给出了缺失数据下增长模型的拟合优度检验方法。最后通过一个示例说明了该方法在工程上的应用。     

Stationarization of the seasonally changing failure flow (with reference to reliability problems)

This paper treats of the analytical solution of reliability problems in the special case when the failure rate acting on an object is a periodic piecewise constant function of time. It is proposed that the nonstationary failure rate be substituted by a stationary one. The formula intended for calculation of this fictitious equivalent stationary failure rate is derived. This enables the finding of approximate solutions of reliability problems in an analytical form convenient for applications in the sphere of engineering and for the following analysis. A simplistic example is used to demonstrate the proposed approach.     

某型工程车系统可靠性分析

本应用失效树分析法,以某型工程车进行了可靠性分析,建立了该系统的失效树,在此基础上用最小割集法和系统失效树的可靠性仿真法计算了该系统的可靠性参数,并对一些结果进行了比较。     

Belief reliability: a new metrics for products’ reliability

Traditional reliability metrics are based on probability measures. However, in engineering practices, failure data are often so scarce that traditional metrics cannot be obtained. Furthermore, in many applications, premises of applying these metrics are violated frequently. Thus, this paper will give some new reliability metrics which can evaluate products’ reliability with few failure data. Firstly, the new metrics are defined based on uncertainty theory and then, numerical evaluation methods for them are presented. Furthermore, a numerical algorithm based on the fault tree is developed in order to evaluate systems’ reliability in the context of defined metrics. Finally, the proposed metrics and evaluation methods are illustrated with some case studies.     

面向工业机器人系统的可靠性预测方法研究

阐述了工业机器人系统可靠性研究的意义和基本思路,提出了工业机器人可靠性预测的模型和方法.实例分析表明本文所建立的可靠性预测理论较好地解决了工业机器人这一复杂系统的可靠性预测问题,具有工程实用价值.     

模糊重要度分析方法的研究

阐述故障树分析中从精确到模糊的重要分析法,提出了模糊重要度分析的新方法－中值法,它是用模糊故障树分析技术对结构复杂的新型系统进行可靠性、贮存可靠性研究的重要组成部分。同时,本文用两种模糊重度分析方法对一故障树作了重要度分析。     

多级系统可靠性最优化的分解对策模型及其协调算法

１．引言 许多工程系统一般由众多相对独立但又相互联系的子系统所组成,而每个子系统又由低一级的相对独立且相互联系的子系统所组成,以此类推,直到不能分解或不需分解的子系统即单元为止．所谓相对独立指每个子系统有自己的目标、约束条件、设计变量;所谓相互联系指各子系统之间存在着目标、约束条件、设计变量上的耦合关系．由于存在着上述耦合联系,对每个子系统的单独优化并不能带来系统的总体优化;由于存在着子系统之间的相对独立性,又可以对每个子系统单独构造优化模型,独立求解,然后再进行协调．于是,可以把大系统的多目标…     

Reliability and covariance estimation of weighted k-out-of-n multi-state systems

In the literature of reliability engineering, reliability of the weighted k-out-of-n system can be calculated using component reliability based on the structure function. The calculation usually assumes that the true component reliability is completely known. However, this is not the case in practical applications. Instead, component reliability has to be estimated using empirical sample data. Uncertainty arises during this estimation process and propagates to the system level. This paper studies the propagation mechanism of estimation uncertainty through the universal generating function method. Equations of the complete solution including the unbiased system reliability estimator and the corresponding unbiased covariance estimator are derived. This is a unified approach. It can be applied to weighted k-out-of-n systems with multi-state components, to weighted k-out-of-n systems with binary components, and to simple series and parallel systems. It may also serve as building blocks to derive estimators of system reliability and uncertainty measures for more complicated systems.     

�����������������ƽ��ʣ�������Ƚ�

??The mean residual life (MRL) function plays a very important role in the area of reliability engineering, survival analysis, and many other fields. In this paper, we introduce and study a new stochastic order which gives stochastic comparison for mean residual life of strictly increasing concave function of two random variables. We show that this new stochastic order lies between the hazard rate and mean residual life orders. The preservation properties under mixtures are presented here. Finally, we give some applications of this new order in reliability theory.     

Comparison of combined stochastic risk processes and its applications

In this article we compare combined stochastic risk processes and consider its applications to various fields of relevance. Initially, the problem is formulated in terms of optimal transportation under fatal risks which may cause the failure of the transportation. Various transportation policies are considered and the problem of determining optimal policy maximizing the probability of success of transportation is suggested. Then the suggested problem is reformulated in the context of reliability modelling under more general settings and the main results are derived. Applications of the results to many different areas are discussed.     

Fuzzy temporal fault tree analysis of dynamic systems

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a powerful technique that is widely used for evaluating system safety and reliability. It can be used to assess the effects of combinations of failures on system behaviour but is unable to capture sequence dependent dynamic behaviour. A number of extensions to fault trees have been proposed to overcome this limitation. Pandora, one such extension, introduces temporal gates and temporal laws to allow dynamic analysis of temporal fault trees (TFTs). It can be easily integrated in model-based design and analysis techniques. The quantitative evaluation of failure probability in Pandora TFTs is performed using exact probabilistic data about component failures. However, exact data can often be difficult to obtain. In this paper, we propose a method that combines expert elicitation and fuzzy set theory with Pandora TFTs to enable dynamic analysis of complex systems with limited or absent exact quantitative data. This gives Pandora the ability to perform quantitative analysis under uncertainty, which increases further its potential utility in the emerging field of model-based design and dependability analysis. The method has been demonstrated by applying it to a fault tolerant fuel distribution system of a ship, and the results are compared with the results obtained by other existing techniques.