Superquantile regression with applications to buffered reliability,uncertainty quantification,and conditional value-at-risk

The paper presents a generalized regression technique centered on a superquantile (also called conditional value-at-risk) that is consistent with that coherent measure of risk and yields more conservatively fitted curves than classical least-squares and quantile regression. In contrast to other generalized regression techniques that approximate conditional superquantiles by various combinations of conditional quantiles, we directly and in perfect analog to classical regression obtain superquantile regression functions as optimal solutions of certain error minimization problems. We show the existence and possible uniqueness of regression functions, discuss the stability of regression functions under perturbations and approximation of the underlying data, and propose an extension of the coefficient of determination R-squared for assessing the goodness of fit. The paper presents two numerical methods for solving the error minimization problems and illustrates the methodology in several numerical examples in the areas of uncertainty quantification, reliability engineering, and financial risk management.     

Estimation of additive quantile regression

We consider the nonparametric estimation problem of conditional regression quantiles with high-dimensional covariates. For the additive quantile regression model, we propose a new procedure such that the estimated marginal effects of additive conditional quantile curves do not cross. The method is based on a combination of the marginal integration technique and non-increasing rearrangements, which were recently introduced in the context of estimating a monotone regression function. Asymptotic normality of the estimates is established with a one-dimensional rate of convergence and the finite sample properties are studied by means of a simulation study and a data example.     

Symbolic Computation with Monotone Operators

We consider a class of monotone operators which are appropriate for symbolic representation and manipulation within a computer algebra system. Various structural properties of the class (e.g., closure under taking inverses, resolvents) are investigated as well as the role played by maximal monotonicity within the class. In particular, we show that there is a natural correspondence between our class of monotone operators and the subdifferentials of convex functions belonging to a class of convex functions deemed suitable for symbolic computation of Fenchel conjugates which were previously studied by Bauschke & von Mohrenschildt and by Borwein & Hamilton. A number of illustrative examples utilizing the introduced class of operators are provided including computation of proximity operators, recovery of a convex penalty function associated with the hard thresholding operator, and computation of superexpectations, superdistributions and superquantiles with specialization to risk measures.     

Non-crossing quantile regression via doubly penalized kernel machine

Quantile regression provides a more complete statistical analysis of the stochastic relationships among random variables. Sometimes quantile regression functions estimated at different orders can cross each other. We propose a new non-crossing quantile regression method using doubly penalized kernel machine (DPKM) which uses heteroscedastic location-scale model as basic model and estimates both location and scale functions simultaneously by kernel machines. The DPKM provides the satisfying solution to estimating non-crossing quantile regression functions when multiple quantiles for high-dimensional data are needed. We also present the model selection method that employs cross validation techniques for choosing the parameters which affect the performance of the DPKM. One real example and two synthetic examples are provided to show the usefulness of the DPKM.     

Graphical convergence of sums of monotone mappings

This paper gives sufficient conditions for graphical convergence of sums of maximal monotone mappings. The main result concerns finite-dimensional spaces and it generalizes known convergence results for sums. The proof is based on a duality argument and a new boundedness result for sequences of monotone mappings which is of interest on its own. An application to the epi-convergence theory of convex functions is given. Counterexamples are used to show that the results cannot be directly extended to infinite dimensions.

     

A New Approach to Censored Quantile Regression Estimation

Quantile regression provides an attractive tool to the analysis of censored responses, because the conditional quantile functions are often of direct interest in regression analysis, and moreover, the quantiles are often identifiable while the conditional mean functions are not. Existing methods of estimation for censored quantiles are mostly limited to singly left- or right-censored data, with some attempts made to extend the methods to doubly censored data. In this article, we propose a new and unified approach, based on a variation of the data augmentation algorithm, to censored quantile regression estimation. The proposed method adapts easily to different forms of censoring including doubly censored and interval censored data, and somewhat surprisingly, the resulting estimates improve on the performance of the best known estimators with singly censored data. Supplementary material for this article is available online.     

Validation of association

Recognizing, quantifying and visualizing associations between two variables is increasingly important. This paper investigates how a new function-valued measure of dependence, the quantile dependence function, can be used to construct tests for independence and to provide an easily interpretable diagnostic plot of existing departures from the null model. The dependence function is designed to detect general dependence structure between variables in quantiles of the joint distribution. It gives an insight into how the dependence structure changes in different parts of the joint distribution. We define new estimators of the dependence function, discuss some of their properties, and apply them to construct new tests of independence. Numerical evidence is given to the tests benefits against three recognized independence tests introduced in the previous years. In real-data analysis, we offer the use of our tests and the graphical presentation of the underlying dependence structure.     

面板数据分位回归中适应性LASSO调节参数的选择

在带有罚函数的变量选择中,调节参数的选择是一个关键性问题,但遗憾的是,在大多数文献中,调节参数选择的方法较为模糊,多凭经验,缺乏系统的理论方法.本文基于含随机效应的面板数据模型,提出分位回归中适应性LASSO调节参数的选择标准惩罚交叉验证准则(PCV),并讨论比较了该准则与其他选择调节参数的准则的效果.通过对不同分位点进行模拟,我们发现当残差E来自尖峰分布和厚尾分布时,该准则能更好地估计模型参数,尤其对于高分位点和低分位点而言.选取其他分位点时,PCV的效果虽稍逊色于Schwarz信息准则,但明显优于A1kaike 信息准则和交叉验证准则.且在选择变量的准确性方面,该准则比Schwarz信息准则、Akaike信息准则等更加有效.文章最后对我国各地区多个宏观经济指标的面板数据进行建模分析,展示了惩罚交叉验证准则的性能,得到了在不同分位点处宏观经济指标之间的回归关系.     

Estimating quantiles in imperfect simulation models using conditional density estimation

In this article, we consider the problem of estimating quantiles related to the outcome of experiments with a technical system given the distribution of the input together with an (imperfect) simulation model of the technical system and (few) data points from the technical system. The distribution of the outcome of the technical system is estimated in a regression model, where the distribution of the residuals is estimated on the basis of a conditional density estimate. It is shown how Monte Carlo can be used to estimate quantiles of the outcome of the technical system on the basis of the above estimates, and the rate of convergence of the quantile estimate is analyzed. Under suitable assumptions, it is shown that this rate of convergence is faster than the rate of convergence of standard estimates which ignore either the (imperfect) simulation model or the data from the technical system; hence, it is crucial to combine both kinds of information. The results are illustrated by applying the estimates to simulated and real data.

     

Induced layered clusters,hereditary mappings,and convex geometries

A method for structural clustering proposed by the authors is extended to the case when there are externally defined restrictions on the relations between sets and their elements. This framework appears to be related to order-theoretic concepts of the hereditary mappings and convex geometries, which enables us to give characterizations of those in terms of the monotone linkage functions.     

An Iterative Coordinate Descent Algorithm for High-Dimensional Nonconvex Penalized Quantile Regression

We propose and study a new iterative coordinate descent algorithm (QICD) for solving nonconvex penalized quantile regression in high dimension. By permitting different subsets of covariates to be relevant for modeling the response variable at different quantiles, nonconvex penalized quantile regression provides a flexible approach for modeling high-dimensional data with heterogeneity. Although its theory has been investigated recently, its computation remains highly challenging when p is large due to the nonsmoothness of the quantile loss function and the nonconvexity of the penalty function. Existing coordinate descent algorithms for penalized least-squares regression cannot be directly applied. We establish the convergence property of the proposed algorithm under some regularity conditions for a general class of nonconvex penalty functions including popular choices such as SCAD (smoothly clipped absolute deviation) and MCP (minimax concave penalty). Our Monte Carlo study confirms that QICD substantially improves the computational speed in the p ? n setting. We illustrate the application by analyzing a microarray dataset.     

Variable selection via quantile regression with the process of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type

Based on the data-cutoff method,we study quantile regression in linear models,where the noise process is of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type with possible jumps.In single-level quantile regression,we allow the noise process to be heteroscedastic,while in composite quantile regression,we require that the noise process be homoscedastic so that the slopes are invariant across quantiles.Similar to the independent noise case,the proposed quantile estimators are root-n consistent and asymptotic normal.Furthermore,the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)is applied for the purpose of variable selection.As a result,the quantile estimators are consistent in variable selection,and the nonzero coefficient estimators enjoy the same asymptotic distribution as their counterparts under the true model.Extensive numerical simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed approaches and foreign exchange rate data are analyzed for the illustration purpose.     

On r-quick limit sets for empirical and related processes based on mixing random variables

The r-quick limit points of normalized sample paths and empirical distribution functions of mixing processes are characterized. An r-quick version of Bahadur-Kiefer-type representation for sample quantiles is established, which yields the r-quick limit points of quantile processes. These results are applied to linear functions of order statistics. Some results on r-quick convergence of certain Gaussian processes are also established.     

Regression Adjustment for Noncrossing Bayesian Quantile Regression

A two-stage approach is proposed to overcome the problem in quantile regression, where separately fitted curves for several quantiles may cross. The standard Bayesian quantile regression model is applied in the first stage, followed by a Gaussian process regression adjustment, which monotonizes the quantile function while borrowing strength from nearby quantiles. The two-stage approach is computationally efficient, and more general than existing techniques. The method is shown to be competitive with alternative approaches via its performance in simulated examples. Supplementary materials for the article are available online.     

Backward–forward algorithms for structured monotone inclusions in Hilbert spaces

In this paper, we study the backward–forward algorithm as a splitting method to solve structured monotone inclusions, and convex minimization problems in Hilbert spaces. It has a natural link with the forward–backward algorithm and has the same computational complexity, since it involves the same basic blocks, but organized differently. Surprisingly enough, this kind of iteration arises when studying the time discretization of the regularized Newton method for maximally monotone operators. First, we show that these two methods enjoy remarkable involutive relations, which go far beyond the evident inversion of the order in which the forward and backward steps are applied. Next, we establish several convergence properties for both methods, some of which were unknown even for the forward–backward algorithm. This brings further insight into this well-known scheme. Finally, we specialize our results to structured convex minimization problems, the gradient-projection algorithms, and give a numerical illustration of theoretical interest.     

Lagrangian Penalization Scheme with Parallel Forward–Backward Splitting

We propose a new iterative algorithm for the numerical approximation of the solutions to convex optimization problems and constrained variational inequalities, especially when the functions and operators involved have a separable structure on a product space, and exhibit some dissymmetry in terms of their component-wise regularity. Our method combines Lagrangian techniques and a penalization scheme with bounded parameters, with parallel forward–backward iterations. Conveniently combined, these techniques allow us to take advantage of the particular structure of the problem. We prove the weak convergence of the sequence generated by this scheme, along with worst-case convergence rates in the convex optimization setting, and for the strongly non-degenerate monotone operator case. Implementation issues related to the penalization of the constraint set are discussed, as well as applications in image recovery and non-Newtonian fluids modeling. A numerical illustration is also given, in order to prove the performance of the algorithm.     

我国环境污染、对外贸易和工业发展的关系探究

使用Eviews6.0软件分析1983年至2011年的统计数据,研究环境污染、对外贸易和工业发展之间的关系.首先,使用熵值法构造环境污染综合评价指数.然后,使用Grange检验确定三个变量之间的因果关系,使用VAR模型求解三者之间的量化关系,研究了脉冲响应分析和方差分解.结果表明:对外贸易会影响工业发展,对外贸易的变动冲击在前期会促进工业发展,随着年数的增加,其作用逐渐减少;对外贸易对环境的冲击表现为先增加然后平稳的减少;工业发展对环境污染的冲击最大出现在第二期,最后,采用分位数回归研究变量关系在不同分位点的变化规律,结果表明:对外贸易在各个分位点上都是高度显著的促进工业发展;对外贸易仅在高分位点上是显著的带来环境污染.     

Partially smooth tail-index estimation for small samples

Small samples are a challenge in extreme value theory. Asymptotic results do not apply and many estimation techniques, e.g. maximum likelihood, are unstable. In such situations, imposing qualitative constraints on the empirical distribution function is known to greatly reduce variability. Distribution functions typically appearing in the extreme-value theory, e.g. the generalized extreme-value distribution or the generalized Pareto distribution, have monotone upper tails. Applying monotone density estimation to parts of initial kernel density estimators leads to partially smooth estimated distribution functions. Particularly in small samples, replacing the order statistics in tail-index estimators by their corresponding quantiles from partially smooth estimated distribution functions leads to improved tail-index estimators. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the partially smoothed version of the estimators are well superior to their non-smoothed counterparts, in terms of mean-squared error.     

Functional nonparametric estimation of conditional extreme quantiles

We address the estimation of quantiles from heavy-tailed distributions when functional covariate information is available and in the case where the order of the quantile converges to one as the sample size increases. Such “extreme” quantiles can be located in the range of the data or near and even beyond the boundary of the sample, depending on the convergence rate of their order to one. Nonparametric estimators of these functional extreme quantiles are introduced, their asymptotic distributions are established and their finite sample behavior is investigated.