Message Passing-Based Inference for Time-Varying Autoregressive Models

Time-varying autoregressive (TVAR) models are widely used for modeling of non-stationary signals. Unfortunately, online joint adaptation of both states and parameters in these models remains a challenge. In this paper, we represent the TVAR model by a factor graph and solve the inference problem by automated message passing-based inference for states and parameters. We derive structured variational update rules for a composite “AR node” with probabilistic observations that can be used as a plug-in module in hierarchical models, for example, to model the time-varying behavior of the hyper-parameters of a time-varying AR model. Our method includes tracking of variational free energy (FE) as a Bayesian measure of TVAR model performance. The proposed methods are verified on a synthetic data set and validated on real-world data from temperature modeling and speech enhancement tasks.     

Extended Variational Message Passing for Automated Approximate Bayesian Inference

Variational Message Passing (VMP) provides an automatable and efficient algorithmic framework for approximating Bayesian inference in factorized probabilistic models that consist of conjugate exponential family distributions. The automation of Bayesian inference tasks is very important since many data processing problems can be formulated as inference tasks on a generative probabilistic model. However, accurate generative models may also contain deterministic and possibly nonlinear variable mappings and non-conjugate factor pairs that complicate the automatic execution of the VMP algorithm. In this paper, we show that executing VMP in complex models relies on the ability to compute the expectations of the statistics of hidden variables. We extend the applicability of VMP by approximating the required expectation quantities in appropriate cases by importance sampling and Laplace approximation. As a result, the proposed Extended VMP (EVMP) approach supports automated efficient inference for a very wide range of probabilistic model specifications. We implemented EVMP in the Julia language in the probabilistic programming package ForneyLab.jl and show by a number of examples that EVMP renders an almost universal inference engine for factorized probabilistic models.     

A residual-based message passing algorithm for constraint satisfaction problems

Message passing algorithms, whose iterative nature captures complicated interactions among interconnected variables in complex systems and extracts information from the fixed point of iterated messages, provide a powerful toolkit in tackling hard computational tasks in optimization, inference, and learning problems. In the context of constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs), when a control parameter (such as constraint density) is tuned, multiple threshold phenomena emerge, signaling fundamental structural transitions in their solution space. Finding solutions around these transition points is exceedingly challenging for algorithm design, where message passing algorithms suffer from a large message fluctuation far from convergence. Here we introduce a residual-based updating step into message passing algorithms, in which messages with large variation between consecutive steps are given high priority in the updating process. For the specific example of model RB (revised B), a typical prototype of random CSPs with growing domains, we show that our algorithm improves the convergence of message updating and increases the success probability in finding solutions around the satisfiability threshold with a low computational cost. Our approach to message passing algorithms should be of value for exploring their power in developing algorithms to find ground-state solutions and understand the detailed structure of solution space of hard optimization problems.     

Variationally Inferred Sampling through a Refined Bound

In this work, a framework to boost the efficiency of Bayesian inference in probabilistic models is introduced by embedding a Markov chain sampler within a variational posterior approximation. We call this framework “refined variational approximation”. Its strengths are its ease of implementation and the automatic tuning of sampler parameters, leading to a faster mixing time through automatic differentiation. Several strategies to approximate evidence lower bound (ELBO) computation are also introduced. Its efficient performance is showcased experimentally using state-space models for time-series data, a variational encoder for density estimation and a conditional variational autoencoder as a deep Bayes classifier.     

Sampling the Variational Posterior with Local Refinement

Variational inference is an optimization-based method for approximating the posterior distribution of the parameters in Bayesian probabilistic models. A key challenge of variational inference is to approximate the posterior with a distribution that is computationally tractable yet sufficiently expressive. We propose a novel method for generating samples from a highly flexible variational approximation. The method starts with a coarse initial approximation and generates samples by refining it in selected, local regions. This allows the samples to capture dependencies and multi-modality in the posterior, even when these are absent from the initial approximation. We demonstrate theoretically that our method always improves the quality of the approximation (as measured by the evidence lower bound). In experiments, our method consistently outperforms recent variational inference methods in terms of log-likelihood and ELBO across three example tasks: the Eight-Schools example (an inference task in a hierarchical model), training a ResNet-20 (Bayesian inference in a large neural network), and the Mushroom task (posterior sampling in a contextual bandit problem).     

基于变分推断的磁共振图像群组配准

为解决基于深度学习的成对配准方法精度低和传统配准算法耗时长的问题,本文提出一种基于变分推断的无监督端到端的群组配准以及基于局部归一化互相关（NCC）和先验的配准框架,该框架能够将多个图像配准到公共空间并有效地控制变形场的正则化,且不需要真实的变形场和参考图像．该方法得到的预估变形场可建模为概率生成模型,使用变分推断的方法求解;然后借助空间转换网络和损失函数来实现无监督方式训练．对于公开数据集LPBA40的3D脑磁共振图像配准任务,测试结果表明：本文所提出的方法与基线方法相比,具有较好的Dice得分、运行时间少且产生更好的微分同胚域,同时对噪声具有鲁棒性．     

History Marginalization Improves Forecasting in Variational Recurrent Neural Networks

Deep probabilistic time series forecasting models have become an integral part of machine learning. While several powerful generative models have been proposed, we provide evidence that their associated inference models are oftentimes too limited and cause the generative model to predict mode-averaged dynamics. Mode-averaging is problematic since many real-world sequences are highly multi-modal, and their averaged dynamics are unphysical (e.g., predicted taxi trajectories might run through buildings on the street map). To better capture multi-modality, we develop variational dynamic mixtures (VDM): a new variational family to infer sequential latent variables. The VDM approximate posterior at each time step is a mixture density network, whose parameters come from propagating multiple samples through a recurrent architecture. This results in an expressive multi-modal posterior approximation. In an empirical study, we show that VDM outperforms competing approaches on highly multi-modal datasets from different domains.     

Variational Beta Process Hidden Markov Models with Shared Hidden States for Trajectory Recognition

Hidden Markov model (HMM) is a vital model for trajectory recognition. As the number of hidden states in HMM is important and hard to be determined, many nonparametric methods like hierarchical Dirichlet process HMMs and Beta process HMMs (BP-HMMs) have been proposed to determine it automatically. Among these methods, the sampled BP-HMM models the shared information among different classes, which has been proved to be effective in several trajectory recognition scenes. However, the existing BP-HMM maintains a state transition probability matrix for each trajectory, which is inconvenient for classification. Furthermore, the approximate inference of the BP-HMM is based on sampling methods, which usually takes a long time to converge. To develop an efficient nonparametric sequential model that can capture cross-class shared information for trajectory recognition, we propose a novel variational BP-HMM model, in which the hidden states can be shared among different classes and each class chooses its own hidden states and maintains a unified transition probability matrix. In addition, we derive a variational inference method for the proposed model, which is more efficient than sampling-based methods. Experimental results on a synthetic dataset and two real-world datasets show that compared with the sampled BP-HMM and other related models, the variational BP-HMM has better performance in trajectory recognition.     

Dynamics of Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference: A Case Study in 2D Ising Models

Variational algorithms have gained prominence over the past two decades as a scalable computational environment for Bayesian inference. In this article, we explore tools from the dynamical systems literature to study the convergence of coordinate ascent algorithms for mean field variational inference. Focusing on the Ising model defined on two nodes, we fully characterize the dynamics of the sequential coordinate ascent algorithm and its parallel version. We observe that in the regime where the objective function is convex, both the algorithms are stable and exhibit convergence to the unique fixed point. Our analyses reveal interesting discordances between these two versions of the algorithm in the region when the objective function is non-convex. In fact, the parallel version exhibits a periodic oscillatory behavior which is absent in the sequential version. Drawing intuition from the Markov chain Monte Carlo literature, we empirically show that a parameter expansion of the Ising model, popularly called the Edward–Sokal coupling, leads to an enlargement of the regime of convergence to the global optima.     

Neural Dynamics under Active Inference: Plausibility and Efficiency of Information Processing

Active inference is a normative framework for explaining behaviour under the free energy principle—a theory of self-organisation originating in neuroscience. It specifies neuronal dynamics for state-estimation in terms of a descent on (variational) free energy—a measure of the fit between an internal (generative) model and sensory observations. The free energy gradient is a prediction error—plausibly encoded in the average membrane potentials of neuronal populations. Conversely, the expected probability of a state can be expressed in terms of neuronal firing rates. We show that this is consistent with current models of neuronal dynamics and establish face validity by synthesising plausible electrophysiological responses. We then show that these neuronal dynamics approximate natural gradient descent, a well-known optimisation algorithm from information geometry that follows the steepest descent of the objective in information space. We compare the information length of belief updating in both schemes, a measure of the distance travelled in information space that has a direct interpretation in terms of metabolic cost. We show that neural dynamics under active inference are metabolically efficient and suggest that neural representations in biological agents may evolve by approximating steepest descent in information space towards the point of optimal inference.     

Variational Bayesian identification and prediction of stochastic nonlinear dynamic causal models

In this paper, we describe a general variational Bayesian approach for approximate inference on nonlinear stochastic dynamic models. This scheme extends established approximate inference on hidden-states to cover: (i) nonlinear evolution and observation functions, (ii) unknown parameters and (precision) hyperparameters and (iii) model comparison and prediction under uncertainty. Model identification or inversion entails the estimation of the marginal likelihood or evidence of a model. This difficult integration problem can be finessed by optimising a free-energy bound on the evidence using results from variational calculus. This yields a deterministic update scheme that optimises an approximation to the posterior density on the unknown model variables. We derive such a variational Bayesian scheme in the context of nonlinear stochastic dynamic hierarchical models, for both model identification and time-series prediction. The computational complexity of the scheme is comparable to that of an extended Kalman filter, which is critical when inverting high dimensional models or long time-series. Using Monte-Carlo simulations, we assess the estimation efficiency of this variational Bayesian approach using three stochastic variants of chaotic dynamic systems. We also demonstrate the model comparison capabilities of the method, its self-consistency and its predictive power.     

Message Passing and Metabolism

Active inference is an increasingly prominent paradigm in theoretical biology. It frames the dynamics of living systems as if they were solving an inference problem. This rests upon their flow towards some (non-equilibrium) steady state—or equivalently, their maximisation of the Bayesian model evidence for an implicit probabilistic model. For many models, these self-evidencing dynamics manifest as messages passed among elements of a system. Such messages resemble synaptic communication at a neuronal network level but could also apply to other network structures. This paper attempts to apply the same formulation to biochemical networks. The chemical computation that occurs in regulation of metabolism relies upon sparse interactions between coupled reactions, where enzymes induce conditional dependencies between reactants. We will see that these reactions may be viewed as the movement of probability mass between alternative categorical states. When framed in this way, the master equations describing such systems can be reformulated in terms of their steady-state distribution. This distribution plays the role of a generative model, affording an inferential interpretation of the underlying biochemistry. Finally, we see that—in analogy with computational neurology and psychiatry—metabolic disorders may be characterized as false inference under aberrant prior beliefs.     

On Epistemics in Expected Free Energy for Linear Gaussian State Space Models

Active Inference (AIF) is a framework that can be used both to describe information processing in naturally intelligent systems, such as the human brain, and to design synthetic intelligent systems (agents). In this paper we show that Expected Free Energy (EFE) minimisation, a core feature of the framework, does not lead to purposeful explorative behaviour in linear Gaussian dynamical systems. We provide a simple proof that, due to the specific construction used for the EFE, the terms responsible for the exploratory (epistemic) drive become constant in the case of linear Gaussian systems. This renders AIF equivalent to KL control. From a theoretical point of view this is an interesting result since it is generally assumed that EFE minimisation will always introduce an exploratory drive in AIF agents. While the full EFE objective does not lead to exploration in linear Gaussian dynamical systems, the principles of its construction can still be used to design objectives that include an epistemic drive. We provide an in-depth analysis of the mechanics behind the epistemic drive of AIF agents and show how to design objectives for linear Gaussian dynamical systems that do include an epistemic drive. Concretely, we show that focusing solely on epistemics and dispensing with goal-directed terms leads to a form of maximum entropy exploration that is heavily dependent on the type of control signals driving the system. Additive controls do not permit such exploration. From a practical point of view this is an important result since linear Gaussian dynamical systems with additive controls are an extensively used model class, encompassing for instance Linear Quadratic Gaussian controllers. On the other hand, linear Gaussian dynamical systems driven by multiplicative controls such as switching transition matrices do permit an exploratory drive.     

Flexible and Efficient Inference with Particles for the Variational Gaussian Approximation

Variational inference is a powerful framework, used to approximate intractable posteriors through variational distributions. The de facto standard is to rely on Gaussian variational families, which come with numerous advantages: they are easy to sample from, simple to parametrize, and many expectations are known in closed-form or readily computed by quadrature. In this paper, we view the Gaussian variational approximation problem through the lens of gradient flows. We introduce a flexible and efficient algorithm based on a linear flow leading to a particle-based approximation. We prove that, with a sufficient number of particles, our algorithm converges linearly to the exact solution for Gaussian targets, and a low-rank approximation otherwise. In addition to the theoretical analysis, we show, on a set of synthetic and real-world high-dimensional problems, that our algorithm outperforms existing methods with Gaussian targets while performing on a par with non-Gaussian targets.     

Variational Bayesian-Based Improved Maximum Mixture Correntropy Kalman Filter for Non-Gaussian Noise

The maximum correntropy Kalman filter (MCKF) is an effective algorithm that was proposed to solve the non-Gaussian filtering problem for linear systems. Compared with the original Kalman filter (KF), the MCKF is a sub-optimal filter with Gaussian correntropy objective function, which has been demonstrated to have excellent robustness to non-Gaussian noise. However, the performance of MCKF is affected by its kernel bandwidth parameter, and a constant kernel bandwidth may lead to severe accuracy degradation in non-stationary noises. In order to solve this problem, the mixture correntropy method is further explored in this work, and an improved maximum mixture correntropy KF (IMMCKF) is proposed. By derivation, the random variables that obey Beta-Bernoulli distribution are taken as intermediate parameters, and a new hierarchical Gaussian state-space model was established. Finally, the unknown mixing probability and state estimation vector at each moment are inferred via a variational Bayesian approach, which provides an effective solution to improve the applicability of MCKFs in non-stationary noises. Performance evaluations demonstrate that the proposed filter significantly improves the existing MCKFs in non-stationary noises.     

Probabilistic Models with Deep Neural Networks

Recent advances in statistical inference have significantly expanded the toolbox of probabilistic modeling. Historically, probabilistic modeling has been constrained to very restricted model classes, where exact or approximate probabilistic inference is feasible. However, developments in variational inference, a general form of approximate probabilistic inference that originated in statistical physics, have enabled probabilistic modeling to overcome these limitations: (i) Approximate probabilistic inference is now possible over a broad class of probabilistic models containing a large number of parameters, and (ii) scalable inference methods based on stochastic gradient descent and distributed computing engines allow probabilistic modeling to be applied to massive data sets. One important practical consequence of these advances is the possibility to include deep neural networks within probabilistic models, thereby capturing complex non-linear stochastic relationships between the random variables. These advances, in conjunction with the release of novel probabilistic modeling toolboxes, have greatly expanded the scope of applications of probabilistic models, and allowed the models to take advantage of the recent strides made by the deep learning community. In this paper, we provide an overview of the main concepts, methods, and tools needed to use deep neural networks within a probabilistic modeling framework.     

Decentralized detection for B5G massive MIMO: When local computation meets iterative algorithm

Massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) is a key enabler for 5G and beyond. For signal detection of massive MIMO, computing resources available at the network edge were underexplored in most existing algorithms. For this reason, the paper proposes a new detection algorithm, termed inner-looping decentralized generalized expectation consistent for signal recovery (iDeGEC-SR), which leverages an extra (inner) loop of message passing added to the DeGEC-SR and makes better exploration of the local computing resources. As demonstrated by theoretical analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, the algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art techniques like GEC-SR (in terms of computational complexity), GAMP and DeGEC-SR (in terms of estimation accuracy), considerably.     

Active Inference: Applicability to Different Types of Social Organization Explained through Reference to Industrial Engineering and Quality Management

Active inference is a physics of life process theory of perception, action and learning that is applicable to natural and artificial agents. In this paper, active inference theory is related to different types of practice in social organization. Here, the term social organization is used to clarify that this paper does not encompass organization in biological systems. Rather, the paper addresses active inference in social organization that utilizes industrial engineering, quality management, and artificial intelligence alongside human intelligence. Social organization referred to in this paper can be in private companies, public institutions, other for-profit or not-for-profit organizations, and any combination of them. The relevance of active inference theory is explained in terms of variational free energy, prediction errors, generative models, and Markov blankets. Active inference theory is most relevant to the social organization of work that is highly repetitive. By contrast, there are more challenges involved in applying active inference theory for social organization of less repetitive endeavors such as one-of-a-kind projects. These challenges need to be addressed in order for active inference to provide a unifying framework for different types of social organization employing human and artificial intelligence.     

Variational Bayesian Inference for Nonlinear Hawkes Process with Gaussian Process Self-Effects

Traditionally, Hawkes processes are used to model time-continuous point processes with history dependence. Here, we propose an extended model where the self-effects are of both excitatory and inhibitory types and follow a Gaussian Process. Whereas previous work either relies on a less flexible parameterization of the model, or requires a large amount of data, our formulation allows for both a flexible model and learning when data are scarce. We continue the line of work of Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes, and derive an inference algorithm by performing inference on an aggregated sum of Gaussian Processes. Approximate Bayesian inference is achieved via data augmentation, and we describe a mean-field variational inference approach to learn the model parameters. To demonstrate the flexibility of the model we apply our methodology on data from different domains and compare it to previously reported results.