基于方根分解形式的带衰减因子UKF算法应用

UKF作为一种新的非线性滤波方法已在目标跟踪问题中得到应用,在状态的时间更新阶段直接使用非线性模型,不引入线性化误差,而且不必计算Jacobians矩阵.提出了一种基于方根分解形式的带有衰减因子的UKF算法(SRDMA-UKF),算法的方根形式增加了数字稳定性和状态协方差的半正定性.通过衰减因子的引入加强对当前测量数据的利用,减小历史数据对滤波的影响.仿真实验结果表明,该算法与UKF算法相比具有更好的滤波性能.     

基于增秩Kalman滤波的动态荷载识别和结构响应重构

针对传统的荷载识别方法受不适定性问题影响导致识别误差较大,且受传感器数上的限制也无法监测所有结构易损伤位置处振动响应的问题,提出了一种基于增秩Kalman滤波（augmented Kalman filter, AKF）算法的动态荷载识别和结构响应重构方法.基于结构状态空间方程,形成由荷载向量和状态向量组成的增秩状态向量（augmented-rank state vector,ASV）,利用Kalman滤波算法获得增秩状态向量的最小方差无偏（minimum variance unbiased, MVU）估计,实现了状态和荷载向量的同时识别.结合最优状态估计和观测矩阵,实现了未布置传感器处的结构动力响应重构.通过三个有限元案例,初步验证了该方法的可行性和有效性.结果表明,当荷载位置固定或移动时,所提方法均能有效地识别荷载和重构响应,精度较高且对测量噪声不敏感.传感器的种类、数量和布置位置对荷载识别和响应重构精度会有一定影响.     

Extended Kalman filters using explicit and derivative-free local linearizations

We propose three variants of the extended Kalman filter (EKF) especially suited for parameter estimations in mechanical oscillators under Gaussian white noises. These filters are based on three versions of explicit and derivative-free local linearizations (DLL) of the non-linear drift terms in the governing stochastic differential equations (SDE-s). Besides a basic linearization of the non-linear drift functions via one-term replacements, linearizations using replacements through explicit Euler and Newmark expansions are also attempted in order to ensure higher closeness of true solutions with the linearized ones. Thus, unlike the conventional EKF, the proposed filters do not need computing derivatives (tangent matrices) at any stage. The measurements are synthetically generated by corrupting with noise the numerical solutions of the SDE-s through implicit versions of these linearizations. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed methods vis-à-vis the conventional EKF, numerical illustrations are provided for a few single degree-of-freedom (DOF) oscillators and a three-DOF shear frame with constant parameters.     

Unscented Kalman filter for time varying spectral analysis of earthquake ground motions

A novel parametric time-domain method for time varying spectral analysis of earthquake ground motions is presented. Based upon time varying autoregressive moving average (ARMA) modeling of earthquake ground motion, unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is used to estimate the time varying ARMA coefficients. Then, time varying spectrum is yielded according to the time varying ARMA coefficients. Analysis of the ground motion record El Centro (1940, N–S) shows that compared to Kalman filter (KF) based method, short-time Fourier transform (STFT) and wavelet transform (WT), UKF based method can more reasonably represent the distribution of the seismic energy in time–frequency plane, which ensures its better ability to track the local properties of earthquake ground motions and to identify the systems with nonlinearity. Analysis of the seismic response of a building during the 1994 Northridge earthquake shows that UKF based method can be potentially a useful tool for structural damage detection and health monitoring. Lastly, it is found that the theoretical frequency resolving power of ARMA models usually neglected in some studies has considerable effect on time varying spectrum and it is one of the key factors for ARMA modeling of earthquake ground motion.     

Extended and Unscented Kalman filtering based feedforward neural networks for time series prediction

With the ability to deal with high non-linearity, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs) have been widely studied and successfully applied to time series prediction. However, good fitting results of ANNs and SVMs to nonlinear models do not guarantee an equally good prediction performance. One main reason is that their dynamics and properties are changing with time, and another key problem is the inherent noise of the fitting data. Nonlinear filtering methods have some advantages such as handling additive noises and following the movement of a system when the underlying model is evolving through time. The present paper investigates time series prediction algorithms by using a combination of nonlinear filtering approaches and the feedforward neural network (FNN). The nonlinear filtering model is established by using the FNN’s weights to present state equation and the FNN’s output to present the observation equation, and the input vector to the FNN is composed of the predicted signal with given length, then the extended Kalman filtering (EKF) and Unscented Kalman filtering (UKF) are used to online train the FNN. Time series prediction results are presented by the predicted observation value of nonlinear filtering approaches. To evaluate the proposed methods, the developed techniques are applied to the predictions of one simulated Mackey-Glass chaotic time series and one real monthly mean water levels time series. Generally, the prediction accuracy of the UKF-based FNN is better than the EKF-based FNN when the model is highly nonlinear. However, comparing from prediction accuracy and computational effort based on the prediction model proposed in our study, we draw the conclusion that the EKF-based FNN is superior to the UKF-based FNN for the theoretical Mackey-Glass time series prediction and the real monthly mean water levels time series prediction.     

New approach to applying neural network in nonlinear dynamic model

In this work, radial basis function neural network (RBF-NN) is applied to emulate an extended Kalman filter (EKF) in a data assimilation scenario. The dynamical model studied here is based on the one-dimensional shallow water equation DYNAMO-1D. This code is simple when compared with an operational primitive equation models for numerical weather prediction. Although simple, the DYNAMO-1D is rich for representing some atmospheric motions, such as Rossby and gravity waves. It has been shown in the literature that the ability of the EKF to track nonlinear models depends on the frequency and accuracy of the observations and model errors. In some cases, just fourth-order moment EKF works well, but will be unwieldy when applied to high-dimensional state space. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is an alternative solution for this computational complexity problem, once the ANN is trained offline with a high order Kalman filter, even though this Kalman filter has high computational cost (which is not a problem during ANN training phase). The results achieved in this work encourage us to apply this technique on operational model. However, it is not yet possible to assure convergence in high dimensional problems.     

Target torque estimation for gearshift in dual clutch transmission with uncertain parameters

The target torque of engaging clutches during gearshift is a key factor that affects the dynamic response of powertrains equipped with the dual clutch transmissions (DCT). This paper investigates a method to estimate the target torque of engaging clutches under conditions where engine torque and measurement signals contain white noise and some vehicle parameters (the radius of wheel and rolling friction coefficient) are uncertain. To compute the target torque accurately, the state of system should be estimated when the uncertain parameters exist. The vehicle powertrain is modeled as the 3DOF system when one clutch is closed and the 4DOF system when two clutches are open, while the measured signals include speeds of the engine, transmission, and vehicle (rotational speed of wheels). In addition to traditional extended Kalman filter (EKF), both the joint extended Kalman filter (JEKF) and dual extended Kalman filter (DEKF) are used to estimate the target torque. The simulation results show that DEKF and JEKF provide much higher accuracy in the estimation of target torque than EKF when some parameters of the model are uncertain, so as to produce a better ride performance of the transmission during gearshift, i.e. reduction of power interruption and compressed shifting time. Furthermore, the DEKF provides higher accuracy than the JEKF in estimating uncertain parameters.     

地震动瞬时谱估计的UnscentedKalman滤波方法

用时变ARMA模型描述地震动时程,提出了采用Unscented Kalman滤波技术实现地震动瞬时谱估计的思路．算例分析表明,Unscented Kalman滤波方法较Kalman滤波方法适用范围广,具有较高的时间和频率分辨率,能够更好地跟踪地震动的局部特性,适合处理非线性模型或有突变特性的模型的辨识问题．不同阶数ARMA模型的估计结果还表明,以往被忽略的ARMA模型的理论频率分辨力对地震动瞬时谱估计精度有重要影响,应作为一个参考指标在ARMA模型的判阶中加以考虑．     

Extended-Kalman-filter-based chaotic communication

Together with the optimal linearization technique, an extended-Kalman-filter-basedchaotic communication is first proposed in this paper. First,the optimal linearization technique is utilized to find theexact linear models of the chaotic system at operating statesof interest. Then, an extended Kalman filter (EKF) algorithmis used to estimate both the parameters and states where themessage is already embedded. By using the EKF together withthe optimal linear model, the message can be recovered wellat the receiver's end. Numerical examples and simulations aregiven to show the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.     

基于卡尔曼滤波的期货价格期限结构模型

为准确对商品期货合约进行定价和预测,本文在短期-长期模型的基础上,提出以短期偏离、中期偏离和长期均衡为状态变量的三因素模型。本文根据状态变量的假设建立相关微分方程,并推导出模型的解,再运用卡尔曼滤波和极大似然法得到模型的参数和状态变量。最后,通过比较多种误差统计量证明,本文的短期-中期-长期模型的拟合与预测能力优于短期-长期模型。     

Adaptive Estimation of FCG Using Nonlinear State-Space Models

Abstract

In this paper, an efficient adaptive nonlinear algorithm for estimation and identification, the so-called adaptive Lainiotis filter (ALF), is applied to the problem of fatigue crack growth (FCG) estimation, identification, and prediction of the final crack (failure). A suitable nonlinear state-space FCG model is introduced for both ALF and extended Kalman filter (EKF). Both algorithms are tested in order to compare their efficiency. Through extensive analysis and simulation, it is demonstrated that the ALF has superior performance both in FCG estimation, as well as in predicting the remaining lifetime to failure. Furthermore, it is shown that the ALF is faster and easier to implement in a parallel/distributed processing mode, and much more robust than the classic EKF.     

Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Stochastic Differential Equations: Simulated Maximum Likelihood versus Extended Kalman Filter and Itô-Taylor Expansion

This article compares several estimation methods for nonlinear stochastic differential equations with discrete time measurements. The likelihood function is computed by Monte Carlo simulations of the transition probability (simulated maximum likelihood SML) using kernel density estimators and functional integrals and by using the extended Kalman filter (EKF and second-order nonlinear filter SNF). The relation with a local linearization method is discussed. A simulation study for a diffusion process in a double well potential (Ginzburg–Landau equation) shows that, for large sampling intervals, the SML methods lead to better estimation results than the likelihood approach via EKF and SNF. A second study using a nonlinear diffusion coefficient (generalized Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model) demonstrates that the EKF type estimators may serve as efficient alternatives to simple maximum quasilikelihood approaches and Monte Carlo methods.     

Nonlinear continuous-discrete filtering using kernel density estimatesand functional integrals

We develop filter algorithms for nonlinear stochastic differential equations with discrete time measurements (continuous-discrete state space model). The apriori density (time update) is computed by Monte Carlo simulations of the Fokker-Planck equation using kernel density estimators and measurement updates are obtained by using the extended Kalman filter (EKF) updates. For small sampling intervals, a discretized continuous sampling approach (DCS) is used. A third algorithm utilizes a functional (path) integral representation of the transition density (functional integral filter FIF). The kernel density filter (KDF), DCS, and FIF are compared with the EKF and the Gaussian sum filter by using a Ginzburg-Landau-equation and a stochastic volatility model.     

State of charge estimation for lithium-ion batteries based on adaptive dual Kalman filter

Accurate estimation of the battery state of charge (SOC) is of great significance for enhancing its service life and safety. In this study, based on the fractional-order equivalent circuit model of lithium-ion battery, the SOC estimation methods using dual Kalman filter (DKF) and dual extended Kalman filter (DEKF) are simulated and compared, in terms of model accuracy and SOC estimation accuracy. Then, combining the advantages of the DKF and DEKF algorithms, an SOC estimation algorithm based on adaptive double Kalman filter is proposed. This algorithm uses the recursive least squares (RLS) method to update the battery model parameters online in real time, and employs the DKF algorithm to filter the SOC twice to reduce the interferences from the battery model error and the current measurement error. In the experimental studies, the measured SOC values are compared with the estimated SOC values produced by the proposed algorithm. The comparison results show that SOC estimation error of the proposed algorithm is within the range of ±0.01 under most test conditions, and it can automatically correct SOC to true value in the presence of system errors. Thus, the validity, accuracy, robustness and adaptability of the proposed algorithm under different operation conditions are verified.     

自由漂浮空间非合作目标的运动预测

空间非合作目标的运动预测是航天器在轨服务中的一个重要问题.在获得非合作目标的运动预测结果后,追踪星即可规划运动轨迹以接近目标并对其进行捕获.该文提出了一种自由漂浮空间非合作目标的运动预测方法.该方法的核心思想是首先辨识出目标的姿态动力学参数和目标的质心运动学参数,然后利用参数辨识结果和目标的动力学方程实现对目标的运动预测.在姿态动力学参数的辨识过程中,首先对目标的惯性参数进行初步辨识,然后采用自适应无迹Kalman滤波器对姿态动力学参数进行粗略辨识,最后通过最优化方法进一步提高姿态动力学参数的辨识精度.该文通过数值仿真验证了所提运动预测方法的有效性.仿真结果表明,无论目标是做单轴旋转还是翻滚运动,所提运动预测方法都能够实现对目标的长时间高精度的运动预测.     

Online state of charge estimation of Li-ion battery based on an improved unscented Kalman filter approach

An improved unscented Kalman filter approach is proposed to enhance online state of charge estimation in terms of both accuracy and robustness. The goal is to address the drawback associated with the unscented Kalman filter in terms of its requirement for an accurate model and a priori noise statistics. Firstly, Li-ion battery modelling and offline parameter identification is performed. Secondly, a sensitivity analysis experiment is designed to verify which model parameter has the greatest influence on state of charge estimation accuracy, in order to provide an appropriate parameter for the model adaptive algorithm. Thirdly, an improved unscented Kalman filter approach, composed of a model adaptive algorithm and a noise adaptive algorithm, is introduced. Finally, the results are discussed, which reveal that the proposed approach’s estimation error is less than 1.79% with acceptable robustness and time complexity.     

基于AR(n)模型的卡尔曼滤波模型

考虑到对于处于不同位置的变形监测点,由于它们所处的位置不同,各种环境因素对它们的影响及影响程度也不同,作者预置数个AR(n)模型,通过计算比较,选择剩余标准差最小的AR(n)模型作为初选模型,再将初选的AR(n)模型的模型参数看作包含有动态噪声的状态向量,建立卡尔曼滤波模型.实例分析表明,采用这种方法能够提高模型的拟合精度和预测精度.     

卡尔曼滤波在光纤监测中的应用

薛毅，杨中华．卡尔曼滤波在光纤监测中的应用．本文提出用卡尔曼滤波方法对光纤的接口位置进行确定。该方法的优点是：可以自动地、较为准确地得到光纤的接口位置，为光纤监测数据的自动分析提供了依据     

Performance Analysis of Local Ensemble Kalman Filter

Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is an important data assimilation method for high-dimensional geophysical systems. Efficient implementation of EnKF in practice often involves the localization technique, which updates each component using only information within a local radius. This paper rigorously analyzes the local EnKF (LEnKF) for linear systems and shows that the filter error can be dominated by the ensemble covariance, as long as (1) the sample size exceeds the logarithmic of state dimension and a constant that depends only on the local radius; (2) the forecast covariance matrix admits a stable localized structure. In particular, this indicates that with small system and observation noises, the filter error will be accurate in long time even if the initialization is not. The analysis also reveals an intrinsic inconsistency caused by the localization technique, and a stable localized structure is necessary to control this inconsistency. While this structure is usually taken for granted for the operation of LEnKF, it can also be rigorously proved for linear systems with sparse local observations and weak local interactions. These theoretical results are also validated by numerical implementation of LEnKF on a simple stochastic turbulence in two dynamical regimes.     

Stochastic Detectability and Mean Bounded Error Covariance of the Recursive Kalman Filter with Markov Jump Parameters

In this article, we study the error covariance of the recursive Kalman filter when the parameters of the filter are driven by a Markov chain taking values in a countably infinite set. We do not assume ergodicity nor require the existence of limiting probabilities for the Markov chain. The error covariance matrix of the filter depends on the Markov state realizations, and hence forms a stochastic process. We show in a rather direct and comprehensive manner that this error covariance process is mean bounded under the standard stochastic detectability concept. Illustrative examples are included.