带有随机订货点的两阶段报童模型

销售商可通过二次订货以达到降低风险、增加利润的目的,然而在实际中由于生厂商供货能力不足等不可控因素,销售商往往无法确定何时能进行第二次订货。针对这种现象,本文研究二次订货时间不确定的报童问题,假设随机订货时间点和需求率均服从均匀分布,建立了带有随机订货点的两阶段报童模型,给出了两阶段最优期望总订货量,使得零售商在整个销售期内的期望利润达到最大值。最后通过数值算例,对比分析了本文的二次订购模型与传统一次订购模型,研究结果指出在整个销售期内二次订货可以提高零售商的期望利润。     

The newsvendor’s optimal incentive contracts for multiple advertisers

We consider a newsvendor who earns a revenue from the sales of her product to end users as well as from multiple advertisers paying to obtain access to those end users. We study the optimal decisions of a price-taking and a price-setting newsvendor when the advertisers have private information about their willingness to pay. We focus on the impact of the number of advertisers on the newsvendor’s optimal decisions. We find that regardless of the number of advertisers, the newsvendor may exclude advertisers with a low willingness to pay and distort the price and inventory from their system-efficient levels to screen the advertisers. Moreover, the newsvendor’s decision to exclude an advertiser is based exclusively on that advertiser’s characteristics, and the newsvendor’s optimal decision thus reveals independence among the advertisers. Nonetheless, the profits of the newsvendor and the advertisers also display network effects as both increase in the number of advertisers. Finally, our numerical results show that the newsvendor prefers an equivalent single advertiser to multiple advertisers due to the pooling effect.     

Modeling a multi-attribute utility newsvendor with partial backlogging

Traditional newsvendor models usually focus on single profit maximization or cost minimization approaches. However, making a monetary estimate of the consequences of lost sales as a result of shortages is often a difficult task for many practitioners. Besides, there is still a lack of an explicit account of decision-making judgments on the multiple consequences of making decisions with regard to order quantities. In order to deal with this problem, this paper presents a multi-attribute utility model for the newsvendor problem with regard to profit, the impacts of service level on corporate image and on customers’ goodwill, and the impact on the environment arising from the disposal of unsold products. Demand is partially backlogged according to a decreasing exponential function of the waiting time. The fundamental principles and limitations related to the application of the model built are also discussed.     

Comparing improvement strategies for inventory inaccuracy in a two-echelon supply chain

Classical inventory theory often assumes no discrepancies between recorded inventory and actual inventory. However, inventory records are usually inaccurate due to many reasons in practice. For example, inventory shrinkage refers to the difference between booked inventory that a company should have as a result of its sales, purchasing, and manufacturing processes and actual inventory that it has on hand. This paper concerns the impact of inventory shrinkage to a supply chain and investigates different strategies to deal with inventory shrinkage. We consider a single-period two-echelon supply chain consisting of a Stackelberg manufacturer and a retailer whose inventory is subject to shrinkage errors. Our analysis is based on a single-period newsvendor model and considers the following cases of order decisions: (a) the retailer ignores the inventory errors; (b) the retailer estimates the errors; (c) the retailer shares the inventory error information with the manufacturer; and (d) RFID technology is used to reduce or eliminate the errors. The first case is the base strategy and a common practice for many supply chains, the other two represent certain non-technological strategies of the retailer when dealing with inventory inaccuracy, and the last one represents a technology improvement strategy by the manufacturer to reduce or eliminate inventory shrinkage errors. We compare these improvement strategies and derive critical tag price for RFID implementation as a technological remedy for the inventory inaccuracy problem. Conditions for the profitability of RFID adoption are discussed.     

The multi-item newsvendor model with cross-selling and the solution when demand is jointly normally distributed

Products are often demanded in tandem because of the cross-selling effect. The demand for an item can increase if sales of its cross-selling-associated items are achieved or decrease when the associated items are out of stock, resulting in lost sales. Therefore, a joint inventory policy should be pursued in a cross-selling system. This paper introduces customer-driven cross-selling into centralized and competitive newsvendor (NV) models by representing an item’s effective demand as a function of other items’ order quantities. We derive first-order optimality conditions for the centralized model in addition to pure-strategy Nash equilibrium conditions and uniqueness conditions of the equilibria for the competitive model. We further develop gradient-based (GB) and iteration-based (IB) algorithms to solve the centralized and competitive models, respectively. A computational study verifies the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. The computational results show that a larger cross-selling effect leads to a larger order quantity in a centralized NV model but a smaller order quantity in a competitive NV model, and a larger positive correlation between items’ demands leads to higher profits with smaller order quantities in both models. Moreover, NVs will order more items if the demand variance is greater, however resulting in lower profits. In a competitive situation, one will prefer smaller order quantities than in a centralized decision situation.     

Loss-averse newsvendor problem with supply risk

Modeling the manufacturer as a newsvendor, in this paper we study the ordering decisions of a loss-averse newsvendor with supply and demand uncertainties. Using the stylized newsvendor models, we analyse several key issues, including the effect of the newsvendor’s loss aversion, the effect of demand uncertainty, and the effect of supply uncertainty on the decision maker’s optimal decision under the procurement model, in which the decision maker only pays for the actual quantity received. Through our analysis, we find the following facts: the optimal order quantity decreases with respect to the degree of loss-aversion; the supply uncertainty induces the decision maker to order more than that in a deterministic environment; a stochastically larger demand always results in a larger order quantity and a larger expected utility; the optimal expected utility decreases in the demand volatility while the optimal order quantity may increase or decrease. Moreover, with numerical experiments, we demonstrate that the supply risk negatively affects the utility more than the demand risk does.     

The risk-averse newsvendor problem with random capacity

We study the effect of capacity uncertainty on the inventory decisions of a risk-averse newsvendor. We consider two well-known risk criteria, namely Value-at-Risk (VaR) included as a constraint and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). For the risk-neutral newsvendor, we find that the optimal order quantity is not affected by the capacity uncertainty. However, this result does not hold for the risk-averse newsvendor problem. Specifically, we find that capacity uncertainty decreases the order quantity under the CVaR criterion. Under the VaR constraint, capacity uncertainty leads to an order decrease for low confidence levels, but to an order increase for high confidence levels. This implies that the risk criterion should be carefully selected as it has an important effect on inventory decisions. This is shown for the newsvendor problem, but is also likely to hold for other inventory control problems that future research can address.     

A fuzzy newsvendor approach to supply chain coordination

In the absence of a clear command and control structure, a key challenge in supply chain management is the coordination and alignment of supply chain members who pursue divergent and often conflicting goals. The newsvendor model is typically used as a framework to quantify the cost of misalignment and to assess the impact of various coordination initiatives. The application of the newsvendor framework, however, requires the specification of some probability distribution for the sources of uncertainty, and in particular, for the market demand. The specification of an adequate demand distribution becomes difficult in the absence of statistical data. We therefore consider a fuzzy approach to the newsvendor problem. We use several fuzzy parameters in the model for the demand, the wholesale price, and the market sales price. We solve the fuzzy newsvendor problem to study three coordination policies: quantity discounts, profit sharing, and buyback. For each coordination policy, the optimal order quantity of the retailer is computed. The possible profits of the members in the supply chain are calculated with minimum sharing of private information. We further extend the fuzzy newsvendor model to a setting with a single manufacturer and multiple retailers under the assumption of ample capacity for the manufacturer. Detailed numerical examples are also provided.     

Probability-free solutions to the non-stationary newsvendor problem

This paper concerns the multi-period newsvendor problem. In this problem, the decision maker has to decide the order quantity of an item in the subsequent period in which the demand is usually unknown. No statistical assumptions are made about the unknown demand. We adopt an online learning method from the field of prediction with expert advice to study the non-stationary newsvendor problem. We propose newsvendor strategies for both real-valued and integer order quantities. Taking the non-stationary strategies that can switch between different order quantities as benchmark, we prove that our proposed strategies can guarantee that the newsvendor’s cumulative gains are almost as large as those of the best switching strategies with not too many switches. Simple computational experiments are further performed to illustrate the effectiveness of our strategies.     

A benchmark solution for the risk-averse newsvendor problem

In this paper, we derive the first order conditions for optimality for the problem of a risk-averse expected-utility maximizer newsvendor. We use these conditions to solve a special case where the utility function is any increasing differentiable function, and the random demand is uniformly distributed. This special case has a simple closed form solution and therefore it provides an insightful and practical interpretation to the optimal point. We show some properties of the solution and also demonstrate how it can be used for assessing the newsvendor utility function parameters.     

Optimal sales force compensation plans: an operational procedure

This paper describes an operational procedure for identifying optimal sales force compensation plans featuring salary, commissions and/or quota/bonus. Utility-maximising salespeople's behaviours and reactions to given compensation plans are simulated, and the resulting sales, costs and long-term expected profits are assessed. Then, a search technique attempts to identify the long-term profit-maximising compensation plan structure. Operationally, the simulation model parameters are calibrated so as to reflect those of an actual sales force, and consequently the optimal compensation scheme for this specific sales force can be identified. The concept is illustrated in an actual case study.     

Channel coordination under two-level trade credits and demand uncertainty

This study considers a decentralized supply chain where a retailer has an opportunity to order a product from a supplier prior to the sales season to satisfy uncertain demand. The retailer provides trade credit to end customers and makes credit period and order quantity decisions to maximize profits. The end demand is both random and credit period-dependent. On the basis of the newsvendor model, this paper focuses on channel coordination when a retailer provides trade credit to end customers. When the supplier also provides trade credit to the retailer, we show that the traditional trade credit contract cannot coordinate the channel. Four composite contracts based on trade credit (trade credit cost sharing with buy back or quantity flexibility; modified trade credit with buy back or quantity flexibility) are provided to induce the retailer to make decisions while optimizing the channel profit. This paper shows that the retailer provides a longer credit period to its customers and orders a larger quantity from the supplier under the composite contracts. With these contracts, the profit sharing between both parties depends on the wholesale price (Pareto improvement) for the fixed retail price and the purchasing cost.     

Confidence-based optimisation for the newsvendor problem under binomial,Poisson and exponential demand

We introduce a novel strategy to address the issue of demand estimation in single-item single-period stochastic inventory optimisation problems. Our strategy analytically combines confidence interval analysis and inventory optimisation. We assume that the decision maker is given a set of past demand samples and we employ confidence interval analysis in order to identify a range of candidate order quantities that, with prescribed confidence probability, includes the real optimal order quantity for the underlying stochastic demand process with unknown stationary parameter(s). In addition, for each candidate order quantity that is identified, our approach produces an upper and a lower bound for the associated cost. We apply this approach to three demand distributions in the exponential family: binomial, Poisson, and exponential. For two of these distributions we also discuss the extension to the case of unobserved lost sales. Numerical examples are presented in which we show how our approach complements existing frequentist—e.g. based on maximum likelihood estimators—or Bayesian strategies.     

The newsvendor problem under multiplicative background risk

This note studies the single-period newsvendor problem when the newsvendor faces a multiplicative neutral independent background risk in an expected utility framework. It is shown that multiplicative risk vulnerability is a sufficient condition to guarantee a decrease in the optimal order. A weaker sufficient condition which has more interpretability is also provided and discussed. This result sheds light on situations where exchange, tax or inflation rates risks, which apply multiplicatively to the final wealth, are at work.     

Coordinating a supply chain with effort and price dependent stochastic demand

This paper investigates the issue of channel coordination for a supply chain facing stochastic demand that is sensitive to both sales effort and retail price. In the standard newsvendor setting, the returns policy and the revenue sharing contract have been shown to be able to align incentives of the supply chain’s members so that the decentralized supply chain behaves as well as the integrated one. When the demand is influenced by both retail price and retailer sales effort, none of the above traditional contracts can coordinate the supply chain. To resolve this issue, we explore a variety of other contract types including joint return policy with revenue sharing contract, return policy with sales rebate and penalty (SRP) contract, and revenue sharing contract with SRP. We find that only the properly designed returns policy with SRP contract is able to achieve channel coordination and lead to a Pareto improving win–win situation for supply chain members. We then provide analytical method to determine the contract parameters and finally we use a numerical example to illustrate the findings and gain more insights.     

Speculative production and anticipative reservation of reactive capacity by a multi-product newsvendor

In this paper the optimal sourcing decisions of a multi-product newsvendor prior to the selling season of the products are studied. To satisfy the uncertain demands, the newsvendor can either utilize speculative production, or anticipatively reserve capacity. During the selling season when demand has become known, the newsvendor can utilize its reserved capacity and reactively satisfy demand uncovered by its speculative production. For the case where capacity for speculative production may be limited, but potential reservation of reactive capacity is unlimited two capacity reservation settings are analyzed and compared. In the first one capacity for each product has to be reserved separately, while in the second setting one joint capacity reservation for all products is permitted which can then be allocated to the different products optimally during the selling season. For the case of separate individual reservations the optimal strategies are analytically derived and structural insights concerning their existence are presented. As the model allowing for joint reservation can not be tackled analytically in general an approximation based on an LP formulation is used. Through a numerical example insights on the value of the increased flexibility induced by joint reservation, the cost-premium acceptable for joint reservation and the relative levels of capacity reservation in the two settings are given.     

Using separable programming to solve the multi-product multiple ex-ante constraint newsvendor problem and extensions

This paper provides an approximating programming technique to solve the multi-product newsvendor model in which product demands are independent and stocking quantities are subject to two or more ex-ante linear contraints, such as budget or volume constraints. Previous research has attempted to solve this problem with Lagrange relaxation techniques or by limiting the distribution of demand. However, by taking advantage of the separable nature of the problem, a close approximation of the optimal solution can be found using convex separable programming for any demand distribution in the traditional newsvendor model and extensions. Sensitivity analysis of the linear program provides managerial insight into the effects of parameters of the problem on the optimal solution and future decisions.     

Repeated newsvendor game with transshipments under dual allocations

We study a repeated newsvendor game with transshipments. In every period n retailers face a stochastic demand for an identical product and independently place their inventory orders before demand realization. After observing the actual demand, each retailer decides how much of her leftover inventory or unsatisfied demand she wants to share with the other retailers. Residual inventories are then transshipped in order to meet residual demands, and dual allocations are used to distribute residual profit. Unsold inventories are salvaged at the end of the period. While in a single-shot game retailers in an equilibrium withhold their residuals, we show that it is a subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium for the retailers to share all of the residuals when the discount factor is large enough and the game is repeated infinitely many times. We also study asymptotic behavior of the retailers’ order quantities and discount factors when n is large. Finally, we provide conditions under which a system-optimal solution can be achieved in a game with n retailers, and develop a contract for achieving a system-optimal outcome when these conditions are not satisfied.     

价格数量折扣下多阶段报童问题的在线策略

价格数量折扣可以提高订购量, 是库存决策中的一个重要因素. 特别地, 当订购量达到一定水平时, 价格折扣才会发生. 应用理论计算机科学兴起的弱集成算法, 研究具有这种价格数量折扣的多阶段报童问题的在线策略. 弱集成算法是一种在线序列决策算法, 其主要特点是不对未来输入做任何统计假设, 克服了报童问题研究中需要对需求做概率假设的困难. 主要将弱集成算法应用到固定订购量的专家策略, 给出了价格数量折扣下多阶段报童问题的具体在线策略;得到了该在线策略相对于最优专家策略的理论保证. 进一步将回收价值和缺货损失费引入, 给出了推广的在线策略及其理论结果. 最后应用数值算例说明了给出的在线策略具有较好的竞争性能.     

Option contracts: a solution for overloading problems in the delivery service supply chain

Owing to the limited service capacity of express delivery providers, most online retailers have to reject many orders during hot selling seasons. In this paper, we consider an express delivery service supply chain consisting of an express delivery provider and an online retailer whereby the selling season includes both regular periods and online sales periods. Utilizing a modified newsvendor model, we derive the express delivery provider’s optimal capacity decision and find that the overloading problem cannot be avoided because delivery service cannot be inventoried. To solve such a problem, we introduce an option contract to coordinate the supply chain. By allowing the online retailer to book the capacity, the express delivery provider can rent capacity from a third party in advance. Results show this approach can mitigate the problem significantly. We also extend our model to a supply chain consisting of a delivery provider and two retailers.