On the application of a transportation model for revenue optimization in waste management: a case study

This paper describes an interactive decision support system called Opti-Link which has been developed for a company operating in the area of waste and raw material management. Built around a specific transportation problem, the system is used to maximize the revenue generated by selling waste paper to paper mills. Furthermore, the dual variables of the linear program allow the planner to identify upper bounds for setting bid prices to buy waste paper from waste collection companies. First operational results indicate a significant increase in profit while at the same time the duration of the planning process could be cut by more than half.     

DEA as a tool for bankruptcy assessment: A comparative study with logistic regression technique

This paper proposes data envelopment analysis (DEA) as a quick-and-easy tool for assessing corporate bankruptcy. DEA is a non-parametric method that measures weight estimates (not parameter estimates) of a classification function for separating default and non-default firms. Using a recent sample of large corporate failures in the United States, we examine the capability of DEA in assessing corporate bankruptcy by comparing it with logistic regression (LR). We find that DEA outperforms LR in evaluating bankruptcy out-of-sample. This feature of DEA is appealing and has practical relevance for investors. Another advantage of DEA over LR is that it does not have assumptions associated with statistical and econometric methods. Furthermore, DEA does not need a large sample size for bankruptcy evaluation, usually required by such statistical and econometric approaches. The need for such a large sample size is a significant disadvantage to practitioners when investment decisions are made using small samples. DEA can bypass such a difficulty related to a sample size. Thus, DEA is a practically appealing method for bankruptcy assessment.     

Estimation of missing judgments in AHP pairwise matrices using a neural network-based model

Selecting relevant features to make a decision and expressing the relationships between these features is not a simple task. The decision maker must precisely define the alternatives and criteria which are more important for the decision making process. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) uses hierarchical structures to facilitate this process. The comparison is realized using pairwise matrices, which are filled in according to the decision maker judgments. Subsequently, matrix consistency is tested and priorities are obtained by calculating the matrix principal eigenvector. Given an incomplete pairwise matrix, two procedures must be performed: first, it must be completed with suitable values for the missing entries and, second, the matrix must be improved until a satisfactory level of consistency is reached. Several methods are used to fill in missing entries for incomplete pairwise matrices with correct comparison values. Additionally, once pairwise matrices are complete and if comparison judgments between pairs are not consistent, some methods must be used to improve the matrix consistency and, therefore, to obtain coherent results. In this paper a model based on the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network is presented. Given an AHP pairwise matrix, this model is capable of completing missing values and improving the matrix consistency at the same time.     

MEDSS: A Multi-Agent Environmental Decision Support System framework for model management

Model Management Systems (MMS) have become increasingly important in handling complicated problems in Decision Support Systems (DSS). The primary goal of MMS is to facilitate the development and the utilization of quantitative models to improve decision performance. Much current research focuses on model construction. Where early research used deductive reasoning approaches to construct new models, more recent efforts use inductive reasoning mechanisms. Both approaches have their drawbacks. Deductive reasoning methods require a strong domain theory (which may not exist or may be too complex to apply) and ignore previous solving experience. Inductive reasoning methods can take advantage of precedents or prototypical cases, but do not employ domain knowledge. Both methods are limited in learning capacity. This study proposes a Multi-Agent Environmental Decision Support System, which integrates an Inductive Reasoning Agent, and an Environmental Learning Agent to perform new model formation and problem solving. New models can be generated by the coordination of both the Inductive Agent and the Deductive Agent. At the same time, a model repair process is undertaken by the Environmental Learning Agent when the prediction resulting from existing knowledge fails.     

A methodology for developing Bayesian networks: An application to information technology (IT) implementation

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are probabilistic inference engines that support reasoning under uncertainty. This article presents a methodology for building an information technology (IT) implementation BN from client–server survey data. The article also demonstrates how to use the BN to predict the attainment of IT benefits, given specific implementation characteristics (e.g., application complexity) and activities (e.g., reengineering). The BN is an outcome of a machine learning process that finds the network’s structure and its associated parameters, which best fit the data. The article will be of interest to academicians who want to learn more about building BNs from real data and practitioners who are interested in IT implementation models that make probabilistic statements about certain implementation decisions.     

Developing a performance management system using soft systems methodology: A Chinese case study

The economic crisis created major problems for a successful, hi-tech Chinese company – Tonsan. They already had in place a performance management system based around the balanced scorecard which worked successfully in times of growth and high demand. However, with the world downturn they suddenly found that their current system was not able to cope with the demands placed on it. The authors were called in and decided to design a new, strategic performance management system to overhaul all the key business processes. The approach taken to develop the PM system was based around Soft Systems Methodology (SSM), a well established systems-based approach to problem solving and organizational design. The methodology progressed from the development of key strategic objectives (using the BSC and strategy maps), through a structured decomposition of necessary organizational activities, the construction of key performance indicators, the specification of targets, to communication and future planning. It involved significant levels of participation and communication throughout the organization. The results were judged by senior management to have been very successful, and the company has grown significantly.     

Barrier lake formation due to landslide impacting a river: A numerical study using a double layer-averaged two-phase flow model

A granular landslide impacting a river may lead to the formation of a landslide dam blocking the streamflow, and subsequently create a barrier lake. Should a barrier lake outburst, the flood may be destructive and spell disastrous consequences downstream. The last decade or so has witnessed a number of experimental and numerical investigations on barrier lake outburst flooding, whilst studies on barrier lake formation remain rare – a physically enhanced and practically viable mathematical model is still missing. Generally, barrier lake formation is characterized by multi-physical, interactive processes between water flow, multi-sized sediment transport and morphological evolution. Here, a new double layer-averaged two-phase flow model is proposed, which is an advance on existing continuum models that involve a single-phase flow assumption and presume a single sediment size, and discrete models that preclude fine grains and assume narrow grain size distributions. The proposed model is first validated against data from previous laboratory experiments of waves due to landslides impacting reservoirs and landslide dam formation over dry valleys. Then it is applied to explore the complicated mechanism and threshold for barrier lake formation. The water and grain velocities are shown to be disparate, characterizing the primary role of grains in driving water movement during subaqueous landslide motion and also demonstrating the need for a two-phase flow approach. The grain size effects are revealed, i.e., coarse grains and grain-size uniformity favour barrier lake formation. A new threshold condition is proposed for barrier lake formation, integrating the landslide-to-river momentum ratio and grain size effects. The present work facilitates a promising modelling framework for solving barrier lake formation, thereby underpinning the assessment of flood hazards due to barrier lakes.     

Disseminating a warning message to evacuate: A simulation study of the behaviour of neighbours

Large-scale evacuations are a recurring theme on news channels, whether in response to major natural or manmade disasters. The role of warning dissemination is a key part in the success of such large-scale evacuations and its inadequacy in certain cases has been a ‘primary contribution to deaths and injuries’ (Hayden et al., 2007). Along with technology-driven ‘official warning channels’ (e.g. sirens, mass media), the role of unofficial channel (e.g. neighbours, personal contacts, volunteer wardens) has proven to be significant in warning the public of the need to evacuate. Although post-evacuation studies identify the behaviours of evacuees as disseminators of the warning message, there has not been a detailed study that quantifies the effects of such behaviour on the warning message dissemination. This paper develops an Agent-Based Simulation (ABS) model of multiple agents (evacuee households) in a hypothetical community to investigate the impact of behaviour as an unofficial channel on the overall warning dissemination. Parameters studied include the percentage of people who warn their neighbours, the efficiency of different official warning channels, and delay time to warn neighbours. Even with a low proportion of people willing to warn their neighbour, the results showed considerable impact on the overall warning dissemination.     

Measurement of returns to scale using a non-radial DEA model: A range-adjusted measure approach

This research theoretically explores the measurement of returns to scale (RTS), using a non-radial DEA (data envelopment analysis) model. A range-adjusted measure (RAM) is used as a representative of such non-radial models. Historically, a type of RTS has been discussed within an analytical framework of radial models. The radial-based RTS measurement is replaced by the non-radial RAM/RTS measurement in this study. When discussing the non-radial RAM/RTS measurement, this study finds a problem of multiple projections that cannot be found in the radial measurement. In this research, a new linear programming approach is proposed to identify all efficient DMUs (decision making units) on a reference set. The important feature of the proposed approach is that it can deal with a simultaneous occurrence of (a) multiple reference sets, (b) multiple supporting hyperplanes and (c) multiple projections. All of the three difficulties are handled by the proposed RAM/RTS measurement. In particular, we discuss both when the three different types of multiple solutions occur on the RAM/RTS measurement and how to deal with such difficulties. Our research results make it possible to measure not only the type of RTS but also the magnitude of RTS in the RAM measurement.