Sampling almonds for aflatoxin, part II: estimating risks associated with various sampling plan designs

About 100 nations have established regulatory limits for aflatoxin in food and feeds. Because these limits vary widely from one country to another, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, working through the Codex Committee on Food Additives and Contaminants, has initiated work to harmonize aflatoxin limits and sampling plans for almonds, pistachios, hazelnuts, and Brazil nuts. Studies were developed to measure the uncertainty and distribution among test results for replicate samples taken from aflatoxin-contaminated almond shipments. The uncertainty and distribution information was used to develop a model to evaluate the performance of aflatoxin sampling plans so that harmonized sampling plans can be developed for almonds that reduce the misclassifying of lots in the export trade. Twenty lots of shelled almonds were sampled according to an experimental protocol in which sixteen 10 kg samples were taken from each lot. The observed aflatoxin distribution among the 16 sample test results was compared with 3 theoretical distributions. The negative binomial distribution was selected to model aflatoxin distribution among sample test results because it gave acceptable fits across all 20 observed sample distributions. By using the variance and distribution information, operating characteristics curves were developed to predict the effect of sample size and accept/reject limits on the probability of rejecting good lots and accepting bad lots.     

Evaluating the performance of sampling plans to detect fumonisin B1 in maize lots marketed in Nigeria

Fumonisins are toxic and carcinogenic compounds produced by fungi that can be readily found in maize. The establishment of maximum limits for fumonisins requires the development of scientifically based sampling plans to detect fumonisin in maize. As part of an International Atomic Energy Agency effort to assist developing countries to control mycotoxin contamination, a study was conducted to design sampling plans to detect fumonisin in maize produced and marketed in Nigeria. Eighty-six maize lots were sampled according to an experimental protocol in which an average of 17 test samples, 100 g each, were taken from each lot and analyzed for fumonisin B1 by using liquid chromatography. The total variability associated with the fumonisin test procedure was measured for each lot. Regression equations were developed to predict the total variance as a function of fumonisin concentration. The observed fumonisin distribution among the replicated-sample test results was compared with several theoretical distributions, and the negative binomial distribution was selected to model the fumonisin distribution among test results. A computer model was developed by using the variance and distribution information to predict the performance of sampling plan designs to detect fumonisin in maize shipments. The performance of several sampling plan designs was evaluated to demonstrate how to manipulate sample size and accept/reject limits to reduce misclassification of maize lots.     

Sampling grain shipments to detect genetically modified seed.

Using the binomial distribution, the effect of sample size on the variability among sample test results when sampling a lot with 1.0% genetically modified (GM) or biotech seed was evaluated. The coefficient of variation, cv, among 500-seed sample test results taken from a lot with truly 1.0% was computed to be 44.5%. Increasing sample size to 1000 seeds reduced the cv among sample test results to 31.5%. The effects of sample size and accept/reject limits on the buyer's risk (bad lots accepted) and the seller's risk (good lots rejected) was also evaluated assuming a tolerance of 1.0% GM seed. Increasing sample size decreases both the buyer's and seller's risks at the same time. Using an accept/reject limit below the regulatory tolerance decreases the buyer's risk, but increases the seller's risk. Using an accept/reject limit above the regulatory tolerance decreases the seller's risk but increases the buyer's risk.     

Sampling hazelnuts for aflatoxin: uncertainty associated with sampling, sample preparation, and analysis

The variability associated with the aflatoxin test procedure used to estimate aflatoxin levels in bulk shipments of hazelnuts was investigated. Sixteen 10 kg samples of shelled hazelnuts were taken from each of 20 lots that were suspected of aflatoxin contamination. The total variance associated with testing shelled hazelnuts was estimated and partitioned into sampling, sample preparation, and analytical variance components. Each variance component increased as aflatoxin concentration (either B1 or total) increased. With the use of regression analysis, mathematical expressions were developed to model the relationship between aflatoxin concentration and the total, sampling, sample preparation, and analytical variances. The expressions for these relationships were used to estimate the variance for any sample size, subsample size, and number of analyses for a specific aflatoxin concentration. The sampling, sample preparation, and analytical variances associated with estimating aflatoxin in a hazelnut lot at a total aflatoxin level of 10 ng/g and using a 10 kg sample, a 50 g subsample, dry comminution with a Robot Coupe mill, and a high-performance liquid chromatographic analytical method are 174.40, 0.74, and 0.27, respectively. The sampling, sample preparation, and analytical steps of the aflatoxin test procedure accounted for 99.4, 0.4, and 0.2% of the total variability, respectively.     

Statistical approach for risk assessment of aflatoxin sampling plan used by manufacturers for raw shelled peanuts

Processed food manufacturers often use acceptance sampling plans to screen out lots with unacceptable levels of contamination from incoming raw material streams. Sampling plan designs are determined by specifying sample sizes, sample preparation methods, analytical test methods, and accept/reject criteria. Sampling plan performance can be indicated by plotting acceptance probability versus contamination level as an operating characteristic (OC) curve. In practice, actual plan performance depends on the level of contamination in the incoming lot stream. This level can vary considerably over time, among different crop varieties, and among locales. To better gauge plan performance, a method of coupling an OC curve and crop distributions is proposed. The method provides a precise probabilistic statement about risk and can be easily performed with commercial spreadsheet software.     

Evaluating the performance of sampling plans to detect hypoglycin A in ackee fruit shipments imported into the United States

Hypoglycin A (HGA) is a toxic amino acid that is naturally produced in unripe ackee fruit. In 1973, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) placed a worldwide import alert on ackee fruit, which banned the product from entering the United States. The FDA has considered establishing a regulatory limit for HGA and lifting the ban, which will require development of a monitoring program. The establishment of a regulatory limit for HGA requires the development of a scientifically based sampling plan to detect HGA in ackee fruit imported into the United States. Thirty-three lots of ackee fruit were sampled according to an experimental protocol in which 10 samples, i.e., ten 19 oz cans, were randomly taken from each lot and analyzed for HGA by using liquid chromatography. The total variance was partitioned into sampling and analytical variance components, which were found to be a function of the HGA concentration. Regression equations were developed to predict the total, sampling, and analytical variances as a function of HGA concentration. The observed HGA distribution among the test results for the 10 HGA samples was compared with the normal and lognormal distributions. A computer model based on the lognormal distribution was developed to predict the performance of sampling plan designs to detect HGA in ackee fruit shipments. The performance of several sampling plan designs was evaluated to demonstrate how to manipulate sample size and accept/reject limits to reduce misclassification of ackee fruit lots.     

Sampling almonds for aflatoxin, part I: estimation of uncertainty associated with sampling, sample preparation, and analysis

Domestic and international regulatory limits have been established for aflatoxin in almonds and other tree nuts. It is difficult to obtain an accurate and precise estimate of the true aflatoxin concentration in a bulk lot because of the uncertainty associated with the sampling, sample preparation, and analytical steps of the aflatoxin test procedure. To evaluate the performance of aflatoxin sampling plans, the uncertainty associated with sampling lots of shelled almonds for aflatoxin was investigated. Twenty lots of shelled almonds were sampled for aflatoxin contamination. The total variance associated with measuring B1 and total aflatoxins in bulk almond lots was estimated and partitioned into sampling, sample preparation, and analytical variance components. All variances were found to increase with an increase in aflatoxin concentration (both B1 and total). By using regression analysis, mathematical expressions were developed to predict the relationship between each variance component (total, sampling, sample preparation, and analysis variances) and aflatoxin concentration. Variance estimates were the same for B1 and total aflatoxins. The mathematical relationships can be used to estimate each variance for a given sample size, subsample size, and number of analyses other than that measured in the study. When a lot with total aflatoxins at 15 ng/g was tested by using a 10 kg sample, a vertical cutter mixer type of mill, a 100 g subsample, and high-performance liquid chromatography analysis, the sampling, sample preparation, analytical, and total variances (coefficient of variation, CV) were 394.7 (CV, 132.4%), 14.7 (CV, 25.5%), 0.8 (CV, 6.1%), and 410.2 (CV, 135.0%), respectively. The percentages of the total variance associated with sampling, sample preparation, and analytical steps were 96.2, 3.6, and 0.2, respectively.     

Testing shelled corn for aflatoxin, Part III: evaluating the performance of aflatoxin sampling plans

The effects of changes in sample size and/or sample acceptance level on the performance of aflatoxin sampling plans for shelled corn were investigated. Six sampling plans were evaluated for a range of sample sizes and sample acceptance levels. For a given sample size, decreasing the sample acceptance level decreases the percentage of lots accepted while increasing the percentage of lots rejected at all aflatoxin concentrations, and decreases the average aflatoxin concentration in lots accepted and lots rejected. For a given sample size where the sample acceptance level decreases relative to a fixed regulatory guideline, the number of false positives increases and the number of false negatives decreases. For a given sample size where the sample acceptance level increases relative to a fixed regulatory guideline, the number of false positives decreases and the number of false negatives increases. For a given sample acceptance level, increasing the sample size increases the percentage of lots accepted at concentrations below the regulatory guideline while increasing the percentage of lots rejected at concentrations above the regulatory guideline, and decreases the average aflatoxin concentration in the lots accepted while increasing the average aflatoxin concentration in the rejected lots. For a given sample acceptance level that equals the regulatory guideline, increasing the sample size decreases misclassification of lots, both false positives and false negatives.     

Distribution among sample test results when testing shelled corn lots for fumonisin.

The statistical distribution known as the compound gamma function was studied for suitability in describing the distribution of sample test results associated with testing lots of shelled corn for fumonisin. Thirty-two 1.1 kg test samples were taken from each of 16 contaminated lots of shelled corn. An observed distribution consisted of 32 sample fumonisin test results for each lot. The mean fumonisin concentration, c, and the variance, s2, among the 32 sample fumonisin test results along with the parameters for the compound gamma function were determined for each of the 16 observed distributions. The 16 observed distributions of sample fumonisin test results were compared with the compound gamma function using the Power Divergence test. The null hypothesis that the observed distribution could have resulted from sampling a family of compound gamma distributions was not rejected at the 5% significance level for 15 of the 16 lots studied. Parameters of the compound gamma distribution were calculated from the 32-fumonisin sample test results using the method of moments. Using regression analysis, equations were developed that related the parameters of the compound gamma distribution to fumonisin concentration and the variance associated with a fumonisin test procedure. An operating characteristic curve was developed for a fumonisin sampling plan to demonstrate the use of the compound gamma function.     

Performance of sampling plans to determine aflatoxin in farmers' stock peanut lots by measuring aflatoxin in high-risk-grade components

Five 2 kg test samples were taken from each of 120 farmers' stock peanut lots contaminated with aflatoxin. Kernels from each 2 kg sample were divided into the following U.S. Department of Agriculture grade components: sound mature kernels plus sound splits (SMKSS), other kernels (OK), loose shelled kernels (LSK), and damaged kernels (DAM). The kernel mass (g), aflatoxin mass (ng), and aflatoxin concentration (ng of aflatoxin/g of peanuts) were measured for each of the 2400 component samples. The variabilities associated with measuring aflatoxin mass (ng) in OK + LSK + DAM, or A(OLD)ng, and in LSK + DAM, or A(LD)ng, and aflatoxin concentration (ng/g) in OK + LSK + DAM, or A(OLD)ng/g, and in LSK + DAM, or A(LD)ng/g, were determined. The variance associated with measuring aflatoxin in each of the 4 combinations of components increased with aflatoxin, and functional relationships were developed from regression analysis. The variability associated with estimating the lot concentration from each of the 4 combinations of components was also determined. The coefficients of variation (CV) associated with estimating the aflatoxin for a lot with aflatoxin at 100 ng/g were 90, 86, 94 and 96% for aflatoxin masses A(OLD)ng and A(LD)ng and aflatoxin concentrations A(OLD)ng/g and A(LD)ng/g, respectively. The performance of aflatoxin sampling plans using the combination of aflatoxin masses in OK + LD + DAM and LD + DAM components was evaluated with a 2 kg test sample and a 50 ng/g accept/reject limit.     

Uncertainty from sampling in measurements of aflatoxins in animal feedingstuffs: application of the Eurachem/CITAC guidelines

The duplicate method for estimating uncertainty from measurement including sampling is presented in the Eurachem/CITAC guide. The applicability of this method as a tool for verifying sampling plans for mycotoxins was assessed in three case studies with aflatoxin B(1) in animal feedingstuffs. Aspects considered included strategies for obtaining samples from contaminated lots, assumptions about distributions, approaches for statistical analysis, log(10)-transformation of test data and applicability of uncertainty estimates. The results showed that when duplicate aggregate samples are formed by interpenetrating sampling, repeated measurements from a lot can be assumed to approximately follow a normal or lognormal distribution. Due to the large variation in toxin concentration between sampling targets and sometimes very large uncertainty arising from sampling and sample preparation (U(rel) ≥ 50%), estimation of uncertainty from log(10)-transformed data was found to be a more generally applicable approach than application of robust ANOVA.     

Testing green coffee for ochratoxin A, part III: performance of ochratoxin A sampling plan

Green coffee shipments are often inspected for ochratoxin A (OTA) and classified into good or bad categories depending on whether the OTA estimates are above or below a defined regulatory limit. Because of the uncertainty associated with the sampling, sample preparation, and analytical steps of an OTA test procedure, some shipments of green coffee will be misclassified. The misclassification of lots leads to some good lots being rejected (sellers' risk) and some bad lots being accepted (buyers' risk) by an OTA sampling plan. Reducing the uncertainty of an OTA test procedure and using an accept/reject limit less than the regulatory limit can reduce the magnitude of one or both risks. The uncertainty of the OTA test procedure is most effectively reduced by increasing sample size (or increasing the number of samples analyzed), because the sampling step is the largest source of uncertainty in the OTA test procedure. The effects of increasing sample size and changing the sample accept/reject limit relative to the regulatory limit on the performance of OTA sampling plans for green coffee were investigated. For a given accept/reject limit of 5 microg/kg, increasing sample size increased the percentage of lots accepted at concentrations below the regulatory limit and increased the percentage of lots rejected at concentrations above the regulatory limit. As a result, increasing sample size reduced both the number of good lots rejected (sellers' risk) and the number of bad lots accepted (buyers' risk). For a given sample size (1 kg), decreasing the sample accept/reject limit from 5 to 2 microg/kg relative to a fixed regulatory limit of 5 microg/kg decreased the percentage of lots accepted and increased the percentage of lots rejected at all OTA concentrations. As a result, decreasing the accept/reject limit below the regulatory limit increased the number of good lots rejected (sellers' risk), but decreased the number of bad lots accepted (buyers' risk).     

Evaluation of sampling plans to detect Cry9C protein in corn flour and meal

StarLink is a genetically modified corn that produces an insecticidal protein, Cry9C. Studies were conducted to determine the variability and Cry9C distribution among sample test results when Cry9C protein was estimated in a bulk lot of corn flour and meal. Emphasis was placed on measuring sampling and analytical variances associated with each step of the test procedure used to measure Cry9C in corn flour and meal. Two commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kits were used: one for the determination of Cry9C protein concentration and the other for % StarLink seed. The sampling and analytical variances associated with each step of the Cry9C test procedures were determined for flour and meal. Variances were found to be functions of Cry9C concentration, and regression equations were developed to describe the relationships. Because of the larger particle size, sampling variability associated with cornmeal was about double that for corn flour. For cornmeal, the sampling variance accounted for 92.6% of the total testing variability. The observed sampling and analytical distributions were compared with the Normal distribution. In almost all comparisons, the null hypothesis that the Cry9C protein values were sampled from a Normal distribution could not be rejected at 95% confidence limits. The Normal distribution and the variance estimates were used to evaluate the performance of several Cry9C protein sampling plans for corn flour and meal. Operating characteristic curves were developed and used to demonstrate the effect of increasing sample size on reducing false positives (seller's risk) and false negatives (buyer's risk).     

Testing shelled corn for aflatoxin, Part I: estimation of variance components

The variability associated with testing lots of shelled corn for aflatoxin was investigated. Eighteen lots of shelled corn were tested for aflatoxin contamination. The total variance associated with testing shelled corn was estimated and partitioned into sampling, sample preparation, and analytical variances. All variances increased as aflatoxin concentration increased. With the use of regression analysis, mathematical expressions were developed to model the relationship between aflatoxin concentration and the total, sampling, sample preparation, and analytical variances. The expressions for these relationships were used to estimate the variance for any sample size, subsample size, and number of analyses for a specific aflatoxin concentration. Test results on a lot with 20 parts per billion aflatoxin using a 1.13 kg sample, a Romer mill, 50 g subsamples, and liquid chromatographic analysis showed that the total, sampling, sample preparation, and analytical variances were 274.9 (CV = 82.9%), 214.0 (CV = 73.1 %), 56.3 (CV = 37.5%), and 4.6 (CV = 10.7%), respectively. The percentage of the total variance for sampling, sample preparation, and analytical was 77.8, 20.5, and 1.7, respectively.     

Contribution of sampling to the variability of pesticide residue data

The uneven distribution of pesticide residues among the treated objects leads to an inevitable variability of pesticide residue levels measured in the samples, which may significantly contribute to the combined uncertainty of the analytical results. A total of 8844 unit-crop residue data derived from 57 lots and 19 field trials were evaluated to determine the characteristic features of residue distribution in unit crops and composite samples. The average residue levels and the corresponding coefficient of variation (CV) values obtained for individual units taken from a given lot showed wide variation from lot to lot. There was no significant difference between the CVs of residue levels in sample sets of various unit crops or composite sample populations of different sizes taken from various crops. The CV values for levels of residues taken from individual lots followed normal distribution. Very good correlation was found between the CVs of the parent and sample populations. The experimentally obtained values were very close to those expected on the basis of the central limit theorem. The estimated typical relative standard uncertainties of sampling medium-size crops for pesticide residue analysis in the cases of sample sizes of 5, 10, and 25 were 37, 25, and 16%, respectively.     

Predicting aflatoxin and fumonisin in shelled corn lots using poor-quality grade components

A study was conducted to determine if aflatoxin and fumonisin are concentrated in the poor-quality grade components of shelled corn. Four 1.0 kg test samples were each taken from 23 lots of shelled corn marketed in North Carolina. Inspectors from the Federal Grain Inspection Service divided each test sample into 3 grade components: (1) damaged kernels (DM), (2) broken corn and foreign material (BCFM), and )3) whole kernels (WH). The aflatoxin and fumonisin concentration was measured in each component and a mass balance equation was used to calculate the total concentration of each mycotoxin in each test sample. Averaged across all test samples, the aflatoxin concentrations in the DM, BCFM, and WH components were 1300.3, 455.2, and 37.3 ppb, respectively. Averaged across all test samples, the fumonisin concentrations in the DM, BCFM, and WH components were 148.3, 51.3, and 1.8 ppm, respectively. The DM and BCFM components combined accounted for only 5.0% of the test sample mass, but accounted for 59.8 and 77.5% of the total aflatoxin and fumonisin mass in the test sample, respectively. Both aflatoxin mass (ng) and aflatoxin concentration (ng/g) in the combined DM and BCFM components had high correlations with aflatoxin concentration in the lot. The highest correlation occurred when aflatoxin mass (ng) in the combined DM and BCFM components was related to aflatoxin concentration in the lot (0.964). Similar results were obtained for fumonisin. This study indicated that measuring either aflatoxin or fumonisin in the combined DM and BCFM grade components could be used as a screening method to predict either aflatoxin or fumonisin in a bulk lot of shelled corn.     

Determining the variability associated with testing shelled corn for aflatoxin using different analytical procedures in Louisiana in 1998

The number of elevator facilities with laboratories to test shelled corn for aflatoxin on site is increasing. The inherent difficulty in accurately determining the true aflatoxin concentration of a lot of corn may have serious implications. Deviations from the true value are of even greater significance at busy locations where a high throughput is desired. This study was instituted to measure (1) the differences in aflatoxin test results between elevator laboratories and the Louisiana Agricultural Chemistry (LAC) laboratory and (2) the variability in aflatoxin test results associated with sampling, sample preparation, and analysis of shelled corn at such locations. One hundred lots of shelled corn from 10 elevators in Louisiana were analyzed for aflatoxin using the Aflatest method (at elevators and at the LAC laboratory) and high-performance column liquid chromatography (HPLC; LAC laboratory only). Mean aflatoxin levels determined at elevator laboratories were significantly (P < 0.05) lower from those obtained in the LAC laboratory using the Aflatest method. Overall, Aflatest method results were lower than those obtained by HPLC. This difference may be attributed to analyst technical dexterity, difficulty in providing careful attention to detail in a high throughput environment, and/or substandard facilities found at elevators. The total variance was partitioned into the combined sampling plus subsampling variance and analytical variance. The sampling and sample preparation steps accounted for about 91.5% of the total variability. When using the HPLC analytical method, the analytical step contributed only 8.5% to the total variance.     

Testing shelled corn for aflatoxin, Part II: modeling the observed distribution of aflatoxin test results

The suitability of several theoretical distributions to predict the observed distribution of aflatoxin test results in shelled corn was investigated. Fifteen positively skewed theoretical distributions were each fitted to 18 empirical distributions of aflatoxin test results for shelled corn. The compound gamma distribution was selected to model aflatoxin test results for shelled corn. The method of moments technique was chosen to estimate the parameters of the compound gamma distribution. Mathematical expressions were developed to calculate the parameters of the compound gamma distribution for any lot aflatoxin concentration and test procedure. Observed acceptance probabilities were compared to operating characteristic curves predicted from the compound gamma distribution, and all 18 observed acceptance probabilities were found to lie within a 95% confidence band. The parameters of compound gamma were used to calculate the fraction of aflatoxin-contaminated kernels in contaminated lots. At 20 ppb, it was estimated that about 6 in 10,000 kernels are contaminated.     

Sampling and analytical variability associated with the determination of aflatoxins and ochratoxin A in bulk lots of powdered ginger marketed in 1-lb bags

Ginger has been used as a food, dietary supplement, and condiment for centuries. Mycotoxins such as the aflatoxins (AF) and ochratoxin A (OTA) have been reported in ginger roots in several studies. It is important to design effective sampling methods that will accurately and precisely predict the true mycotoxin level in a bulk lot. The objective of this study was to measure the sampling and analytical variability associated with the test procedure used to measure AF and OTA in a bulk lot of powdered ginger using a 5-g laboratory sample and HPLC analytical methods. Twelve 5-g laboratory samples were taken from each of two lots. Duplicate aliquots were removed from each 5-g laboratory sample/solvent blend, and each aliquot was simultaneously analyzed for AF and OTA by HPLC analytical methods. Using a balanced nested design, the total variance associated with the above AF and OTA test procedures was partitioned into sampling and analytical variance components for each lot. Averaged across both lots, the sampling and analytical variances accounted for 87% and 13% of the total variance, respectively, for AF and 97% and 3%, respectively, for OTA. The sampling and analytical coefficients of variation were 9.5% and 3.6%, respectively, for AF, and 16.6% and 2.9%, respectively, for OTA when using a single 5-g laboratory sample and HPLC analytical methods. Equations are derived to show the effect of increasing laboratory sample size and/or number of aliquots on reducing the variability of the test procedures used to estimate OTA and AF in powdered ginger.