基于改进模糊综合评价的厦门市公共建筑全寿命节能评估

为了全面评价夏热冬暖地区公共建筑的节能效果,根据模糊数学的基本原理,提出从建筑设计、施工、围护结构、建筑设备、运行管理、使用舒适度等方面建立全寿命周期下公共建筑节能的多级模糊综合评价模型,采用改进层次分析法确定各级评价因子的权重,运用该模型对厦门市不同建成年代的公共建筑进行节能评估,同时综合考虑了因采取节能措施而产生的增量成本,运用价值工程进一步评价节能效率.结果表明:公共建筑节能效果具有明显的年代特征.该法可以作为夏热冬暖地区公共建筑节能效果全寿命周期评价的基本方法,为节能评价提供参考.     

基于VE理论的LCC与直觉模糊TOPSIS法的项目成本方案分析

将价值工程运用到全寿命周期成本分析中,计算方案的动态成本.通过解决传统层次分析法难以解决的模糊环境中的综合评价问题,提出直觉模糊层次分析法并求得各方案的功能系数,然后与方案LCC得到价值系数,以此为依据进行方案评选.为了使方案评选结果更加科学合理,利用直觉模糊TOPSIS法进行对比分析与验证.结合某住宅项目,得到两种评价结果的一致性,证明方法对于成本方案的评选是有效的.     

不确定并串联系统的贮备冗余优化

在可靠性工程中,可靠性优化设计是系统设计阶段需要解决的一个重要问题.文章针对不确定并串联系统,研究了具有不确定寿命和不确定费用的贮备冗余优化问题.以最大化系统可靠性,最大化系统寿命和最小化系统费用为目标,构建了3种不同的贮备冗余优化模型.在不确定理论框架下,给出了3种模型的等价模型,且根据决策者的偏好构建了3种带有优先级的模型.此外,给出的数值算例说明了所构建模型的合理性.     

基于模糊理论的软件寿命周期费用评价模型

软件寿命周期费用评价模型涉及到软件开发、使用和维护过程中各种资源最有效利用的权衡分析。由于软件开发不是一门严谨的精确科学,往往存在大量具有不确定性的需求以及许多未知和不确定因素,所有这些都给软件寿命周期费用评价带来模糊效用。本文将模糊理论应用于软件寿命周期费用的评价,给出了从评价属性模糊值的确定、模糊评价模型的建立,到模型求解和最优方案选择的模糊评价方法,并通过对一个算例的分析,证明了该模型的可行性。     

企业生命周期分析方法研究

许多企业的生产都具有明显的周期性特点 ,如石油、煤矿等采掘类企业。如何准确地划分这些企业的寿命周期阶段 ,这是一个具有着重要的理论价值的问题。本文笔者运用修正的指数函数和三次曲线函数 ,分别模拟了两种不同情况下企业寿命周期阶段的划分 ,在同类问题的研究中具有重要的参考意义     

复杂系统多层局势决策模型研究

本文给出了复杂系统多层次结构的数学描述 ,基于单层局势决策和二层系统决策理论建立了一种新的复杂系统多层局势决策模型     

复杂结构粘弹性问题的大规模并行计算研究

在一些重大装备中存在一类重要部组件,即由周围刚性构件和中间垫层构件组合而成的多层回转预紧垫层结构,因垫层材料往往选择橡胶、硅泡沫等高分子材料,计算其在役受力响应时,涉及预紧、粘弹性非线性、结构尺度差异大的几何细节描述等复杂问题,目前还缺乏对涉及该问题进行高保真和高效率数值计算的方法研究。依托自主开发的有限元并行计算框架PANDA,设计实现了一种粘弹性非线性有限元并行算法和程序,在曙光5000A并行系统上通过算例验证了程序计算结果的正确性,探讨了预条件子对程序并行效率的影响。显示程序具有较好的并行计算能力,为复杂工程结构中的大规模粘弹性非线性有限元并行分析提供了有效的工具。     

雷达船目标的模糊智能识别

模糊集理论和技术给复杂的模糊背景下的模式识别问题提供了一种简易有效的处理手段。基于模糊集理论,定量地分析和处理识别过程中的各种不确定性信息,以提高识别系统的可靠性和智能度,便是我们研究舰船雷达目标识别系统中识别算法的一重要内容。本文通过舰船雷达目标识别这一典型的模糊模式识别问题,系统地论述了模糊模式识别系统的一般性框架、模糊特征抽取和隶属函数的建立、模糊特征选择和匹配分类、层次化模糊分类系统构造等一系列关键性问题。本文提出的各种方法具有通用性,已建立的识别系统在试验中具有良好的目标识别能力。     

一种基于复杂性理论的装备作战仿真方法

采用什么样的计算机仿真方法来隐喻真实的作战系统是装备作战仿真研究的关键问题.从复杂性科学的研究角度,引入了复杂适应系统(CAS)理论及其技术体系,提炼了基于Agents/space的建模与仿真框架,说明了框架实现的关键技术——可计算模型、复杂性解决方案和仿真实现平台.进而利用该方法进行了典型装备作战仿真问题研究,包括:利用神经网络、三维连续空间可计算模型,并选用Mason平台实现了装甲装备战损规律仿真;利用三层元胞自动机、产生式系统可计算模型,并选用Repast平台实现了装备群对抗仿真.为基于复杂性理论开展装备作战仿真或具有类似特征问题的研究提供了一种新的试验途径.     

关联网络DEA在多层次指标体系中的应用研究

对复杂系统进行效率评价,是改善其运作性能的必要之举。DEA作为一种典型的效率评价方法,现有研究已提出了若干串联、并联系统的DEA效率评价问题。然而,为评价复杂系统的效率,建立的评价指标体系往往具有多层次性,常有串并联混合结构出现。现有研究囿于将复杂系统中的层次关系作为黑箱处理,或者只研究串联或并联系统,没有有效考察DEA在串并联混合结构中效率评价的应用,对复杂系统的"多层次指标体系"不能进行有效评价。与传统的DEA评价方法相比,本文首次将网络DEA引入多层次指标体系的评价当中,以串并联混合结构为基础,构建了用于多层次指标体系评价的关联网络DEA模型;从模型创新的角度,本文的关联网络DEA模型融合了串联和并联系统DEA模型,为处理子系统间复杂的关联关系提供了新思路。最后,通过对军民结合企业的实证研究验证了模型的合理性。     

A discrete event simulation model in the case of managing a software project

The design and development of large-scale software projects is a complex endeavor, often facing problems like cost and schedule overruns as well as low quality. Over the last years the management of software development projects has been recognized as the cornerstone point of seeking improvement and solutions. Simulation modeling of the software project process is gaining interest among academics and practitioners, as a method to tackle the complex questions with which relevant enterprises are confronted. It offers support on several issues, such as defining software product development strategies, decision-making regarding process improvement and training, in a time span ranging from a short portion of the life cycle to long term product evolution, with organization-wide implications. The aim of this work is to implement a model simulating a core part of a software project process, enabling the estimation of several project development details such as delivery times and quality metrics. The purpose of the model is to assist project managers in control and monitoring, but also in identifying the best planning alternatives. The model scope covers a portion of the life cycle of an incremental software development venture.     

基于总承包商的水电工程EPC项目利益相关方协调度测评研究

在水电工程EPC项目大规模发展的背景下提出提高总承包商协调管理能力的问题,识别水利水电工程EPC项目管理协调度的影响因素,构建协调度评价指标体系并基于欧氏距离构建协调度模型,通过四川JL水电站建设项目研究总承包商与各利益相关方之间的协调发展度.结果表明,总承包商与上游相关方(业主、咨询单位、监理单位)为优质协调;与项目实施主体(设计方、供应商、分包方)为较好协调;与政治相关方(政府、当地居民)的协调程度最差,与政府为一般协调,与当地居民为轻度失调.据此,从总承包商的视角提出同各利益相关方的协调发展策略,能更好地促进总承包商协调管理能力的提升以及提高水利水电EPC工程项目的完成质量.     

Project Planning and Prioritization in the Social Services–an OR Contribution

This paper describes a study carried out for the Social Services Department of a UK County Council towards the development of a system for the evaluation and prioritization of project-based work. There are three major components of the study; an activity analysis to investigate how managers in the department spend their time, with a view to establishing a time budget for the project work; a pilot study to introduce a simple system for project planning and workload balancing with a specialist team; and the development of a multiple criteria model for the evaluation and prioritization of projects. We envisaged a Decision Support System which integrated all of these elements; however, this was never developed; instead, the resultant benefits were of a very different nature. We reflect on the reasons for this and the implications for the success of the study.     

A fuzzy approach to R&D project portfolio selection

A major advance in the development of project selection tools came with the application of options reasoning in the field of Research and Development (R&D). The options approach to project evaluation seeks to correct the deficiencies of traditional methods of valuation through the recognition that managerial flexibility can bring significant value to projects. Our main concern is how to deal with non-statistical imprecision we encounter when judging or estimating future cash flows. In this paper, we develop a methodology for valuing options on R&D projects, when future cash flows are estimated by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In particular, we present a fuzzy mixed integer programming model for the R&D optimal portfolio selection problem, and discuss how our methodology can be used to build decision support tools for optimal R&D project selection in a corporate environment.     

基于熵权物元的大型水利工程项目风险评价研究

大型水利工程项目是典型的复杂系统工程,为了准确预测大型水利工程风险等级,降低事故风险,论文从管理、技术、经济、政策、环境五个方面选取影响水利工程项目风险的14个指标,建立了水利工程项目风险评价指标体系.借助熵权法确定各项指标的权重,分析影响项目风险的主要因素,之后利用物元分析理论定量评价项目的风险状况.通过分析可知:跨...     

A better project performance prediction model using fuzzy time series and data envelopment analysis

Earned value management (EVM) is a critical project management methodology that evaluates and predicts project performance from cost and schedule perspectives. The novel theoretical framework presented in this paper estimates future performance of a project based on the past performance data. The model benefits from a fuzzy time series forecasting model in the estimation process. Furthermore, fuzzy-based estimation is developed using linguistic terms to interpret different possible conditions of projects. Eventually, data envelopment analysis is applied to determine the superior model for forecasting of project performance. Multiple illustrative cases and simulated data have been used for comparative analysis and to illustrate the applicability of theoretical model to real situations. Contrary to EVM-based approach, which assumes the future performance is the same as the past, the proposed model can greatly assist project managers in more realistically assessing prospective performance of projects and thereby taking necessary and on-time appropriate actions.     

Problem structuring methods: theorizing the benefits of deconstructing sustainable development projects

Problem structuring methods or PSMs are widely applied across a range of variable but generally small-scale organizational contexts. However, it has been argued that they are seen and experienced less often in areas of wide ranging and highly complex human activity—specifically those relating to sustainability, environment, democracy and conflict (or SEDC). In an attempt to plan, track and influence human activity in SEDC contexts, the authors in this paper make the theoretical case for a PSM, derived from various existing approaches. They show how it could make a contribution in a specific practical context—within sustainable coastal development projects around the Mediterranean which have utilized systemic and prospective sustainability analysis or, as it is now known, Imagine. The latter is itself a PSM but one which is ‘bounded’ within the limits of the project to help deliver the required ‘deliverables’ set out in the project blueprint. The authors argue that sustainable development projects would benefit from a deconstruction of process by those engaged in the project and suggest one approach that could be taken—a breakout from a project-bounded PSM to an analysis that embraces the project itself. The paper begins with an introduction to the sustainable development context and literature and then goes on to illustrate the issues by grounding the debate within a set of projects facilitated by Blue Plan for Mediterranean coastal zones. The paper goes on to show how the analytical framework could be applied and what insights might be generated.     

面向复杂产品系统项目评价专家遴选方法研究

专家遴选是复杂产品系统(CoPS)项目科学评价过程中的重要决策问题,科学合理的遴选专家有利于CoPS项目的实现。CoPS项目的多领域知识集成性和项目任务的模糊不确定性,给项目评价的知识属性识别和专家遴选相对“小”领域的科学判断带来较大困难。在面向CoPS项目评价的专家遴选研究问题上,提出了包含技术领域和任务领域的二元知识分类表征方法,构建了基于直觉模糊相似度的专家知识关联度侧度模型,在此基础上建立了包含专家业绩评价和知识关联度的专家遴选多目标决策模型,并给出了一个航天领域电子元器件项目评价的实例。     

Stochastic evolution of innovation diffusion in heterogeneous groups: study of life cycle patterns

A theoretical framework has been proposed to study patternsof innovation diffusion in a heterogeneous population, withapplicability to a number of problem areas including marketing.The heterogeneity in the population is captured through randomlyvarying parameters, which have been modelled in terms of two-pointdistributions. The effect of heterogeneity leads to the generationof bi-modal life cycle patterns besides the conventional uni-modalpattern resulting from S-shaped curve. The stochastic evolutionof the mean and variance of the number of adopters is foundto depict a high level of relative fluctuation around the pointof inflexion. As a result of randomness in parameters, the resultingdifferential equation for the evolution of the mean of the adoptionprocess is characterized by a non-autonomous system having parameterswhich are no longer constant but become time dependent. Fordemonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed framework, areal data set which depicts a bi-modal life cycle curve is investigated.The fit is found to be extremely good while capturing appropriateproduct life cycle curve.     

赤道东太平洋海气耦合振荡的非线性分析及ENSO循环的极限环理论

把赤道东太平洋地区大气对流层,海洋混合层看作是在定常热源（太阳辐射）驱动下的动力系统,利用一个局域平均的热力学气候模式,建立了海气耦合自激振荡模型,得到了一个封闭的自治的二次系统,对系统进行了线性和非线性分析．结合系统稳定的极限环解,对海气耦合的物理机制进行了探讨．和观测事实的比较表明,在赤道东太平洋区域平均的以500 hPa为代表的大气对流层的温度距平和海表温度距平,在相平面上和极限环解定性上很一致．这为研究热带海气相互作用的年际变化提供了一个理论模型．