基于时空加权回归模型北京市房屋租赁价格的空间分析

基于北京市77个小区2013年4月到2014年3月的月度房屋租赁价格数据,利用时空加权回归模型分析了租赁价格与其相关协变量之间的关系,结果揭示了北京房屋租赁价格的空间特征和不同影响因素的影响.     

顾客凑单退货环境下平台零售商促销定价决策研究

基于平台零售商存在的满减促销价格问题，考虑由一个平台零售商和两类消费者(投机型/普通型)组成的购物场景，在存在投机型消费者凑单退货情形下，建立了单周期销售决策模型并分别得到了平台商在不允许退货和允许退货模式下的最优促销定价决策。研究发现：在两种模式下均存在最优的促销价格使得平台商利润最大。不允许退货模式下的最优促销价格仅仅与两种产品之间的相关程度有关；允许退货模式下两种产品的最优促销价格随其中一个产品被凑单的概率和投机型消费者比例的变化而变化。通过综合比较两种模式下的利润，发现允许退货下的利润并不始终高于不允许退货下的情况，进一步给出了平台商采取不同模式的临界条件。     

在线短租平台的盈利模式及定价策略研究

线短租平台作为共享经济的重要平台之一,有着显著的特征:它只提供房间的信息展示等服务而不是提供产品,只决策交易佣金以及向谁收取佣金,而平台上交易的房间租赁服务的质量和价格均由房东来决策。文章考虑三种在线短租平台的盈利模式——向房东、向房客以及向双边用户都收取交易佣金,分别建立三阶段动态博弈模型,利用逆向归纳法分析了房东的房间服务质量和定价决策。通过均衡分析,得到以下结论:不管平台选择哪种盈利模式,当平台上已有的房东数量较少时,房东数量的增多反而不利于平台获利,而当已有房东数量超过规模临界值时,房东数量的增多会给平台带来更多的利益。有趣的是,如果平台想吸引更多的消费者,向房东收取交易佣金的盈利模式并不一定总是最优的。     

基于双对数线性模型的北京市入境旅游需求影响因素分析

将北京市入境旅游需求作为研究对象,通过列举北京市旅游的内部条件和外部条件,从国际旅游需求趋势、季节影响、旅游价格趋势三方面对北京入境旅游进行描述性分析,进而进行常规模型分析.选取7个客源国1996—2008年十三年的数据建立北京旅游需求双对数线性模型(其中解释变量PR_u包括两个选择变量,即PR,1和PR2).采用Eveiws 6.0对模型进行估计,从中选去包括PR_1变量的方程作为北京入境旅游需求模型,并得出各客源国的国内生产总值平均增长率和相对价格(中国入境旅游外汇收入指数和各客源国居民消费指数的比率)是影响北京旅游需求的重要因素,其中各客源国的国内生产总值平均增长率的影响程度最为显著;2003年的全球性非典型肺炎的扩散也是影响北京入境旅游需求的因素之一;排除了1997年亚洲金融危机,2001年美国9.11事件和2008年北京奥运会这三个虚拟变量的影响.     

基于高频数据的IPO首日量价关系研究

本文基于高频数据对IPO首日的量价关系进行了实证研究,采用了分组研究以及回归分析的方法。研究发现,IPO首日的价格变化(绝对值)以及价格变化都与归一化交易量有着正相关关系,且价格变化(绝对值)更加敏感。同时,本文还对时刻、板块、流通市值以及中签率与IPO首日的价格变化(绝对值)及价格变化的影响进行了研究,并给出了相应的解释。     

城市二手住房特征价格研究——以石家庄市为例

将特征价格理论应用于具体的二手住房市场,通过搜集、整理得到2075个石家庄市二手住房价格和特征样本数据,选取了住房的建筑自身、区位和邻里等三类特征作为解释变量,采用最小二乘法（OLS）进行回归,分析了城市二手住房特征价格,构建了适用于二手住房市场的特征价格模型并解释了住房特征与住房价格之间的定量关系．     

住房价格波动对自有住房家庭消费的区域异质性影响研究

为了解决八大类消费品价格数据不易得到的难题,本文构建投入产出价格模型,分别经验研究25个省(自治区和直辖市)住房价格同时变动不同幅度对八大类消费品价格的影响。25个省(自治区和直辖市)消费品价格变动幅度结果即为QUAIDS模型中的消费品价格变量。然后,本文采用CFPS2010数据,在QUAIDS模型中加入反映家庭所在地区的人口特征变量,研究住房价格波动对自有住房家庭消费的区域异质性影响。研究结果表明住房价格波动对自有住房家庭生存型消费需求区域异质性影响的财富效应显著,而对享受型和发展型消费需求区域异质性影响的挤出效应显著。在此基础上,本文进一步运用补偿变动研究住房价格波动对自有住房家庭福利的区域异质性影响。研究结果表明为了提高自有住房家庭的生活质量和促进社会的和谐稳定,政府应该把稳定东部地区住房价格放在首位。且当遇到如何优化家庭消费结构问题时,政府应该根据地区差异划分市场。     

城市宜居性特征对商品住宅价格的影响分析——基于中国35个大中城市静态和动态空间面板模型的实证研究

运用空间计量分析技术,以城市宜居性特征体系的27个指标为解释变量,以商品住宅销售价格为被解释变量,通过构建中国35个大中城市的静态和动态空间面板模型,考察了城市宜居性特征对商品住宅价格的影响,探索城市间房价差异的原因。研究表明,静态和动态模型均显示商品住宅价格存在着显著的正向空间相关性,且这种相关性呈现逐渐增强的态势,但静态模型对空间相关性产生过高估计的偏误,动态空间滞后面板模型由于分离了人们的预期对商品住宅价格的影响,使得空间相关性对房价的影响偏误得以部分矫正;城市的经济环境质量、生态环境质量、自然区位条件和基础设施状况等宜居性特征是形成城市间商品住宅价格差异的主要因素,尤其是文化、交通、通讯设施的完善程度和便利程度对商品住宅价格的影响更为明显。但是,人均GDP、每万人中小学校数、固定电话用户普及率、城镇生活污水处理率、空气质量优良率五个指标对城市商品住宅价格的影响表现为负向关系。     

哈尔滨市冬季PM_(2.5)与影响要素的相关分析

运用相关性分析方法,研究哈尔滨市PM_(2.5)质量浓度与主要空气污染物及气象因素之间的相关关系.建立PM_(2.5)与影响其质量浓度变化的因素的单因变量的偏最小二乘回归分析(PLS1)模型,模型拟合良好,由模型知CO是导致PM_(2.5)质量浓度升高的主要因素.运用通径分析方法,研究解释变量对因变量的直接影响、通过其他解释变量对因变量的间接影响以及各解释变量的对因变量的协同作用.结果表明,各解释变量对PM_(2.5)质量浓度变化的总作用从大到小依次为:CO、PM_(10)、NO_2、风速、湿度、SO_2.     

美国四轮量化宽松货币政策对我国跨境资本流动的影响分析

本文以2008年1月至2013年3月为样本区间,通过构造VAR模型进行脉冲响应和方差分解分析,研究美国QE1-QE4的实施对于我国跨境资本流动的影响.选取美元增发作为美国QE政策的直接操作变量,人民币汇率、中美利差和大宗商品价格作为美国QE政策的间接影响变量,发现以上变量均对我国跨境资本流动有显著影响,且发挥作用的持续时间均在半年左右,但影响强弱略有不同.其中,价格渠道影响最大,利率次之,汇率较小,美元增发影响最小.因此,我国需要完善价格决定机制,发挥市场作用,引导资本合理流动与配置.     

An auction model arising from an Internet search service provider

Most search service providers such as Lycos and Google either produce irrelevant search results or unstructured company listings to the consumers. To overcome these two shortcomings, search service providers such as GoTo.com have developed mechanisms for firms to advertise their services and for consumers to search for the right services. To provide relevant search results, each firm who wishes to advertise at the GoTo site must specify a set of keywords. To develop structured company listings, each firm bids for priority listing in the search results that appear on the GoTo site. Since the search results appear in descending order of bid price, each firm has some control over the order in which the firm appears on the list resulting from the search. In this paper, we present a one-stage game for two firms that captures the advertising mechanism of a search service provider (such as GoTo). This model enables us to examine the firm’s optimal bidding strategy and evaluate the impact of various parameters on the firm’s strategy. Moreover, we analyze the conditions under which all firms would increase their bids at the equilibrium. These conditions could be helpful to the service provider when developing mechanisms to entice firms to submit higher bids.     

Analytic models for parameter dependency in option price modelling

Options are a type of financial instrument classed as derivatives, as they derive their value from an underlying asset. The equations used to model the option price are often expressed as partial differential equations (PDEs). Once expressed in this form, a discretization method on a finite grid can be applied and the numerical valuation obtained. Remains the problem of writing down an (approximate) closed-form analytic model for the option price in function of all the variables and parameters, which is the main objective of this paper. At the same time we also consider the Greeks, which are the quantities representing the sensitivities of the price to a change in the underlying variables or parameters. Discrete values for these Greeks can again be derived, either directly from the differentiation matrices occurring in the option price PDE or by solving new but similar PDEs. Next, analytic models for the Greeks are computed in the same way as for the option price. As a prototype case, The Black-Scholes PDE for European call options is considered.     

成交量与价格限制对中国股市影响的实证分析

以我国股票市场的12支个股资料为例,研究了日收益相关性、成交量和价格限制的关系.研究发现,增加成交量会减弱自相关性的假设对近一半的股票成立.我们首先采用一般方法来估计模型,但这种方法用于研究这三者的关系存在一定的偏差,所以接下来又采用了广义矩估计(GMM)来观察估计结果的灵敏性.发现用GMM方法得出的结果表明成交量和价格限制的影响要强于一般方法得出的结果,价格限制影响表现出了对自回归系数更强烈的影响.     

A production–recycling–inventory system with imprecise holding costs

This paper presents an optimal control recycling production inventory system in fuzzy environment. The used items are bought back and then either put on recycling or disposal. Recycled products can be used for the new products which are sold again. Here, the rate of production, recycling and disposal are assumed to be function of time and considered as control variables. The demand inversely depends on the selling price. Again selling price is serviceable stock dependent. The holding costs (for serviceable and non-serviceable items) are fuzzy variables. At first we define the expected values of fuzzy variable, then the system is transferred to the fuzzy expected value model. In this paper, an optimal control approach is proposed to optimize the production, recycling and disposal strategy with respect so that expected value of total profit is maximum. The optimum results are presented both in tabular form and graphically.     

半变系数模型研究美国爱荷华州埃姆斯市的房价问题

近年来房地产业发展迅猛,房价快速走高,对经济发展和社会稳定产生了重大影响,因此房价研究具有重要的社会价值和经济意义.文章通过散点图及其拟合曲线展示不同协变量和响应变量之间的相关关系,提出半变系数模型建模美国埃姆斯市的房价问题.文章采用剖面最小二乘法研究7个协变量:地面以上的居住面积、地面以上的房间总数(不包括卫生间)、...     

Modelling aesthetic variables in the valuation of paintings: an interval goal programming approach

The economic valuation of works of art is a decisive subject in the general field of valuation. Unlike in other areas of valuation, the explanatory power of the directly observable and quantifiable variables is very low, therefore, aesthetic criteria must be used to obtain valuation models with a greater explanatory power. Frequently, these aesthetic criteria are not always precise, and experts usually express them as an interval of values. This paper describes different valuation models that use the goal programming optimisation method to include explanatory variables of the closing price in the form of intervals of values. We have also modelled the possibility that an expert can determine the relevance of each observation in the formation of the valuation function depending on the degree of precision with which the variables have been defined.     

Farmland appraisal based on the analytic network process

This paper presents an application of the Analytic Network Process (ANP) to farmland appraisal. The purpose of this new methodology is to solve some of the drawbacks found in comparative and capitalisation methods, called classical appraisal methods, which cannot deal with contexts where only partial information is available and/or qualitative variables are used. The ANP is a method based on the Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Previous works have already applied other MCDA techniques to the appraisal context, such as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), however they have not been able to handle all the complexities of many real world appraisal problems. The ANP provides a more accurate approach for modelling complex environment because it allows the general study of the quantitative and qualitative explanatory variables of the price and the incorporation of feedback and interdependence relationships among variables. The new proposed methodology has been applied to a case study of a farm located in Valencia (Spain) in order to demonstrate its goodness. Both quantitative and qualitative variables, such as the age of the trees, productivity or water quality, have been considered to assess the market value of the farm. Six farms from the same region have been selected as reference assets. The appraisal problem has been solved in three different ways in order to study the influence of each model on the value of the problem farm. In this study it has been proved that the more information is incorporated into the model, the higher accuracy of the solution. From the results of this work we can conclude that the approach proposed stands out as a good alternative to current farmland appraisal approaches, as it has proven to be useful when data are only partially available, qualitative variables are used and influences among the explanatory variables are present.     

Using fuzzy random variables in life annuities pricing

This paper develops life annuity pricing with stochastic representation of mortality and fuzzy quantification of interest rates. We show that modelling the present value of annuities with fuzzy random variables allows quantifying their expected price and risk resulting from the uncertainty sources considered. So, we firstly describe fuzzy random variables and define some associated measures: the mathematical expectation, the variance, distribution function and quantiles. Secondly, we show several ways to estimate the discount rates to price annuities. Subsequently, the present value of life annuities is modelled with fuzzy random variables. We finally show how an actuary can quantify the price and the risk of a portfolio of annuities when their present value is given by means of fuzzy random variables.     

Optimal ordering and pricing policies in a single-period environment with multivariate demand and markdowns

This paper investigates a single-period inventory model in which the demand of the product is a deterministic, multivariate function of price, time, and level of inventory. Models are formulated for the basic pricing case and the case with a price markdown during the season. Solution methodologies are presented for each case when the pricing decisions are predetermined and when they are decision variables. Comments on the practical use of this model are presented, and sensitivity analysis is conducted on the decision variables and demand parameters.     

An optimal control model of oil discovery and extraction

Starting with Hotelling (1931) [7] the stock of non-renewable resources have been treated as fixed. Along the line of Pindyck (1978) [8] and Greiner and Semmler (in press) [5] we treat the stock of oil resources as time varying, depending on new discoveries. The resource is finite and only a part of the resource is known while the rest has not yet been discovered. The discovery leads to a rise of known oil resource which can then be optimally exploited. The optimal control model has two state variables, the known stock of the resource and the cumulated past extraction. The control variable is the optimal extraction rate. The optimal control model assumes a monopolistic resource owner who maximizes intertemporal profits from exploiting the resource where the price of the resource depends on the extraction rate, the known stock of the resource, and the cumulated past extraction. The model is solved for a finite time horizon using NUDOCCCS, a numerical solution method to solve finite horizon optimal control problems. Various parameter constellations are explored. For certain parameter constellations the price path becomes U-Shaped as some empirical research, see Greiner and Semmler (in press) [5], have found to hold for actual price data. This holds if the stock of the initially known resource is small.