基于马尔可夫更新过程的多阶段冲击退化系统可靠性分析

系统所遭受的冲击和退化损害过程广泛存在着多阶段特征和相互依赖关系,为了更精确建模和分析系统冲击和退化间的依赖性,论文建立了多阶段冲击和退化过程的复合模型,提出了一种更加广义的冲击和退化过程依赖关系,即二者同时对系统损害累积过程产生贡献,进而导致系统阶段的改变,而状态转移又反馈性地影响冲击和退化过程。通过构造马尔可夫更新过程,基于半马尔科夫核,得到此类冲击退化模型的可靠度解析表达。     

服务员休假的M/M/1生产服务库存模型的性能与费用分析

研究了带有服务员休假的M/M/1生产服务库存系统.首先,利用拟生灭过程理论得到稳态概率的矩阵几何解,在此基础上,进一步得到了与本模型有关的一些性能指标和费用函数的计算公式;然后数值分析了系统参数对于相关性能指标和系统费用的影响.     

血管外给药的非线性房室模型解的逼近

药物动力学模型的解析求解公式在新药设计特别是药物动力学参数确定等方面具有非常重要的意义.近年来,由于非线性米氏消除速率过程确定的药物动力学模型解析求解公式的获得,使得大多数单房室模型的解析解基本确定.但是,由于刻画血管外给药的非线性米氏药物动力学模型是一个非自治系统,进而不可能寻求其解析求解公式.该文的目的是讨论一次性血管外给药和周期血管外给药下非线性药物动力学模型解的逼近问题.采用微分方程和脉冲微分方程的比较定理并借助Lambert W函数的定义以及相关性质给出模型的不同上下界,估计模型解的逼近程度,并通过数值模拟进行验证.     

多翼裂缝压裂偏心井半解析模型及其渗流特征

考虑压裂多翼裂缝偏心井的实际情况,建立了多翼裂缝偏心井的数学模型.采用Laplace变换和压降叠加原理得到Laplace空间多翼裂缝压裂偏心井井底压力的半解析解.采用非均匀流量法,对井底压力的半解析解进行离散.结合Stehfest数值反演获得实空间井底压力的数值解和产量分布.借助SAPHIR试井分析软件建立了储层的数值试井模型并进行了数值离散计算.将计算结果与该文的半解析模型计算结果进行了对比,验证了该文模型的正确性.结果表明,多翼裂缝压裂偏心井井底压力变化可划分为8个主要流动阶段.最后讨论了裂缝的无因次导流能力、裂缝的不对称因子和井的偏心距对井底压力变化和产量分布特征的影响.     

大型网络基于连通可靠度的最优可靠度分配

由于网络连通可靠度计算属于NP-hard问题,当系统可靠度无法显式表达时,基于连通可靠度的大型复杂网络优化通常只能采用启发式优化算法解决．通过对复杂网络连通可靠度算法结构的分析,给出了系统连通可靠度的Taylor方程．采用遗传算法,由系统连通可靠度的Taylor方程确定种群适应值,得到一个系统最优可靠度分配方案;将最优解带入改进Minty算法或递推分解算法中,计算该最优解的连通可靠度精确值和对应的连通可靠度的Taylor展开方程;再次采用遗传算法求最优解．当最优解对应的可靠度精确值和Taylor方程算得得近似值误差小于指定精度时,则此最优解为最终的系统最优可靠度分配方案A·D2将此优化过程称为迭代遗传算法．算例显示迭代遗传算法不仅可用于大型网络的连通可靠度最优分配,而且优化迭代过程中可以得到多组阶段最优解,这些解均落在最优解附近,构成了近似最优解群,在实际工程优化中拓展了选择面．     

非线性动力系统多阶段辨识模型、算法及应用

本文针对一类发酵过程中的发育期、生长期及稳定期的不同特性，提出一种非线性多阶段动力系统及其辨识模型。论述了该模型是一种特殊的多阶段最优控制问题。根据子控制问题性能指标下水平集的局部一致有界性及下半连续性，证明了子控制问题可控性及最优解集为非空紧集。依此性质构造优化算法，研制相应的数学软件，并应用于间歇发酵过程中的参数辨识。其数值结果表明：该多阶段模型比已有模型更能逼近实际过程，提高了模型的精度，使模型更为有效。     

考虑多失效行为的平衡系统可靠性建模与计算

平衡系统的可靠性建模与相关指标计算是可靠性理论与工程领域的研究热点之一。针对由多部件构成的串联平衡系统,假设每个部件受环境冲击影响逐渐退化,呈现出多种状态;系统的性能平衡取决于部件的状态及其排列位置,即当系统中退化程度超过某一阈值的部件分布在某一特定区域时,系统失去性能平衡。考虑单部件失效导致系统失效和三类系统性能失衡导致系统失效四类失效行为,构建了考虑多失效行为的平衡系统可靠性模型。运用有限马尔可夫链嵌入法推导了部件的相关概率指标以及系统可靠度。最后以液压支架系统为例,验证了所提出模型与方法的有效性。     

维修优先于保养的多状态系统的可用度分析

主要研究一类常见的可修多状态退化系统模型,且针对系统的可靠性优化和服务台的有效利用,提出了维修优于保养的的系统优化策略.假定系统随在退化过程中,选择不完全预防性保养,当系统发生故障时,服务台停止保养而转向维修故障.在整个退化、保养、维修等过程中,根据模型实际假设和状态转移图,结合广义马尔可夫过程理论,建立状态概率转移微分方程组,根据可用度的定义,利用极限思想得到稳态可用度的计算方式和结果.最后利用数值算例得到维修优先于保养的多状态系统的稳态可靠度,以及保养率和维修率对可用度的影响,从而体现维修优于保养的优化策略对可靠性设计具有重要意义和实际价值.     

与年龄相关的模糊随机种群扩散系统的数值解

讨论了一类与年龄相关的模糊随机种群扩散系统的数值解。系统同时受两种不确定性因素的影响。即,随机和模糊。并根据Euler-Maruyama方法给出了模糊随机种群扩散系统的数值解表达式,在有界的条件(弱于线性增长条件)和Lipschitz条件下,证明了方程的数值解在均方意义下收敛于解析解。通过例子对本文的算法进行了验证。     

微生物发酵非线性系统辨识、控制及 并行优化研究

主要研究微生物发酵过程中不同工况下的非线性、非光滑且无法求得解析解的动力系统及其主要性质,建立了具有数百个不同动力系统为主要约束、有连续与离散两种辨识参量、依据实验数据与生物系统鲁棒性为性能指标的辨识模型,阐述了此类辨识模型与最优控制模型的建立方法、数值模拟方法及并行优化计算方法,并介绍了笔者的著作《非线性发酵动力系统——辨识、控制与并行优化》的基本内容。     

Reliability and availability analysis of stochastic degradation systems based on bivariate Wiener processes

It is still a challenge to study the degradation mechanisms of complex systems with multiple performance characteristics. This paper develops a two-stage stochastic degradation model. The degeneration processes of two correlated performance characteristics are described by a correlated bivariate Wiener process in the first stage, in which neither of the degradation levels of performance characteristics reaches their thresholds. When one of the degradation levels of performance characteristics reaches its threshold, the system operates defectively in the second stage, and the system degradation process is described by the other performance characteristic which is modeled by a univariate Wiener process. The system fails completely when both the degradation levels of performance characteristics reach their thresholds. Explicit expressions of the system reliability and availabilities are given based on different inspection and maintenance policies. Simulation is also presented, and it shows that the analytical results and the simulation results are in good agreement. Finally, a detailed case study of the rail track geometry degradation is given to demonstrate the results obtained in the paper.     

具有工作故障及有限容量的MAP/M/1排队系统性能分析

为了拓展随机排队理论,在具有工作故障的MAP/M/1排队的基础上,引入有限容量策略建立起一个新的排队模型.通过Uniformization Technique将连续时间排队模型转化成对应的离散时间排队模型,运用矩阵几何组合解给出系统中的顾客数量和服务器状态的联合稳态概率表达式,并给出基于稳态概率的性能指标.最后通过一些数值例子展示参数对性能指标的影响.     

A meshless method using the radial basis functions for numerical solution of the regularized long wave equation

This article discusses on the solution of the regularized long wave (RLW) equation, which is introduced to describe the development of the undular bore, has been used for modeling in many branches of science and engineering. A numerical method is presented to solve the RLW equation. The main idea behind this numerical simulation is to use the collocation and approximating the solution by radial basis functions (RBFs). To avoid solving the nonlinear system, a predictor‐corrector scheme is proposed. Several test problems are given to validate the new technique. The numerical simulation, includes the propagation of a solitary wave, interaction of two positive solitary waves, interaction of a positive and a negative solitary wave, the evaluation of Maxwellian pulse into stable solitary waves and the development of an undular bore. The three invariants of the motion are calculated to determine the conservation properties of the algorithm. The results of numerical experiments are compared with analytical solution and with those of other recently published methods to confirm the accuracy and efficiency of the presented scheme.© 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Numer Methods Partial Differential Eq 2010     

Simplified method and synchronization for a class of complex chaotic systems

This paper is devoted to investigate a class of complex chaotic systems and a linear correlation between the real and imaginary component of complex variables in these systems is found. Based on this linear relationship, a simplified law is proposed. First, complex Lorenz system is given to show the linear correlation, then it is simplified. Second, a simplified law is proposed to determine whether the complex system can be simplified, and the complex Lü system and hyperchaotic complex Lü system are used to verify the simplified law. Finally, a new synchronization control is proposed to synchronize complex Lorenz system and real Lorenz system. The theoretical analysis and numerical simulation prove the feasibility and better performance of this method.     

A finite-element mechanical contact model based on Mindlin–Reissner shell theory for a three-dimensional human body and garment

Efficient numerical methods for describing a garment’s mechanical behavior during wear have been identified as the key technology for garment simulation. This paper presents a finite-element mechanical contact model based on Mindlin–Reissner shell theory for a three-dimensional human body and garment. In this model, the human body and the garment are meshed as basic contact cells, these contact cells between the human body and the garment are defined as the contact pair to describe the contact relationship, and the mathematical formulation of the finite-element model is defined to describe the strain–stress performance of the three-dimensional human body and garment system. By using the solution given by the computer code and the programs specifically developed, the calculations of the mechanics in the basic cells of the human body and the garment have been able to be carried out. The simulation results show that the model of rationality, a good simulation results and simulation efficiency.     

A finite-element mechanical contact model based on Mindlin-Reissner shell theory for a three-dimensional human body and garment

Efficient numerical methods for describing a garment’s mechanical behavior during wear have been identified as the key technology for garment simulation. This paper presents a finite-element mechanical contact model based on Mindlin-Reissner shell theory for a three-dimensional human body and garment. In this model, the human body and the garment are meshed as basic contact cells, these contact cells between the human body and the garment are defined as the contact pair to describe the contact relationship, and the mathematical formulation of the finite-element model is defined to describe the strain-stress performance of the three-dimensional human body and garment system. By using the solution given by the computer code and the programs specifically developed, the calculations of the mechanics in the basic cells of the human body and the garment have been able to be carried out. The simulation results show that the model of rationality, a good simulation results and simulation efficiency.     

基于马尔科夫过程的储备系统稳态性能分析

由于储备系统组成部件在存储期间的失效概率各不相同,当部件状态趋于稳定时,各个状态对系统性能的影响也存在差异。为了识别关键部件及其状态对系统性能的影响程度,本文以重要度为主要指标,应用马尔科夫过程研究储备系统在稳态时的性能变化模式。首先基于综合重要度研究系统性能的变化规律,并结合冷储备系统和温储备系统的状态转移矩阵推导出马尔科夫过程中稳态值的计算方法;其次基于稳态综合重要度获得系统稳态时的性能变化模式;最后以双臂机器人为例,分析部件处于不同状态时对系统性能的影响模式,比较了不同部件综合重要度的变化,验证了提出方法的有效性。     

不确定二阶多智能体系统的鲁棒最优一致

针对不确定二阶多智能体系统,研究了其鲁棒最优一致性问题.首先,基于每个智能体所获得的邻居信息,设计了一个使多智能体系统达到一致的控制协议.其次,研究了多智能体系统的最优一致性问题,给出了系统在满足一定性能指标下达到一致的条件.再次,基于该条件,利用Schur补引理和线性矩阵不等式技术,给出了不确定系统达到鲁棒最优一致的条件.最后,通过仿真验证了所得结果的可行性.     

Tandem behavior of a telecommunication system with finite buffers and repeated calls

The tandem behavior of a telecommunication system with finite buffers and repeated calls is modeled by the performance of a finite capacityG/M/1 queueing system with general interarrival time distribution, exponentially distributed service time, the first-come-first-served queueing discipline and retrials. In this system a fraction of the units which on arrival at a node of the system find it busy, may retry to be processed, by merging with the incoming arrival units in that node, after a fixed delay time. The performance of this system in steady state is modeled by a queueing network and is approximated by a recursive algorithm based on the isolation method. The approximation outcomes are compared against those from a simulation study. Our numerical results indicate that in steady state the non-renewal superposition arrival process, the non-renewal overflow process, and the non-renewal departure process of the above system can be approximated with compatible renewal processes.