小样本数据下圆柱薄壳初始缺陷不确定性量化的极大熵方法

具有不确定性特征的初始缺陷被认为是导致薄壳结构实际临界载荷值与理论解不相符并呈现分散特征的主要原因.对实际薄壳结构初始缺陷的建模至少需要考虑两个方面的不确定性量化,一是对缺陷分布形式和幅值等固有随机性的量化,二是对小样本量和不准确测量所导致缺陷统计量的不确定性的量化.本文在利用随机场的Karhunen-Loeve展开法对薄壳初始几何缺陷建模的基础上,提出一种基于极大熵原理的缺陷建模方法.首先,采用极大熵分布来估计Karhunen-Loeve随机变量的概率密度函数,以适应不能使用高斯随机场进行缺陷随机场建模的情况.随后,通过将经典的等式约束极大熵模型扩展为区间约束极大熵模型,实现对实际工程中仅能获得少量薄壳结构几何缺陷样本数据所导致的认知不确定性的量化.最后,将所提方法用于对国际缺陷数据库的A-Shell进行缺陷建模和临界载荷预测.研究表明,所提基于区间约束极大熵原理的随机场建模方法在能够有效表征实测数据高阶矩信息的同时,还具备量化小样本数据导致的认知不确定性的能力,并且高斯随机场模型和基于等式约束极大熵原理的随机场模型是本文所提建模方法的两种特殊情况.     

Optimal design of trusses with geometric imperfections: Accounting for global instability

A topology optimization method is proposed for the design of trusses with random geometric imperfections due to fabrication errors. This method is a generalization of a previously developed perturbation approach to topology optimization under geometric uncertainties. The main novelty in the present paper is that the objective function includes the nonlinear effects of potential buckling due to misaligned structural members. Solutions are therefore dependent on the magnitude of applied loads and the direction of resulting internal member forces (whether they are compression or tension). Direct differentiation is used in the sensitivity analysis, and analytical expressions for the associated derivatives are derived in a form that is computationally efficient. A series of examples illustrate how the effects of geometric imperfections and buckling may have substantial influence on truss design. Monte Carlo simulation together with second-order elastic analysis is used to verify that solutions offer improved performance in the presence of geometric uncertainties.     

Random excitation of coupled oscillators with single and simultaneous internal resonances

The primary objective of this paper is to examine the random response characteristics of coupled nonlinear oscillators in the presence of single and simultaneous internal resonances. A model of two coupled beams with nonlinear inertia interaction is considered. The primary beam is directly excited by a random support motion, while the coupled beam is indirectly excited through autoparametric coupling and parametric excitation. For a single one-to-two internal resonance, we used Gaussian and non-Gaussian closures, Monte Carlo simulation, and experimental testing to predict and measure response statistics and stochastic bifurcation in the mean square. The mean square stability boundaries of the coupled beam equilibrium position are obtained by a Gaussian closure scheme. The stochastic bifurcation of the coupled beam is predicted theoretically and experimentally. The stochastic bifurcation predicted by non-Gaussian closure is found to take place at a lower excitation level than the one predicted by Gaussian closure and Monte Carlo simulation. It is also found that above a certain excitation level, the solution obtained by non-Gaussian closure reveals numerical instability at much lower excitation levels than those obtained by Gaussian and Monte Carlo approaches. The experimental observations reveal that the coupled beam does not reach a stationary state, as reflected by the time evolution of the mean square response. For the case of simultaneous internal resonances, both Gaussian and non-Gaussian closures fail to predict useful results, and attention is focused on Monte Carlo simulation and experimental testing. The effects of nonlinear coupling parameters, internal detuning ratios, and excitation spectral density level are considered in both investigations. It is found that both studies reveal common nonlinear features such as bifurcations in the mean square responses of the coupled beam and modal interaction in the neighborhood of internal resonances. Furthermore, there is an upper limit for the excitation level above which the system experiences unbounded response in the neighborhood of simultaneous internal resonances.     

Modified Monte Carlo method for buckling analysis of nonlinear imperfect structures

In this paper, we propose a modified Monte Carlo method for analysis of buckling of an imperfect beams on softening nonlinear elastic foundation. Such structures exhibit considerable imperfection sensitivity, i.e. reduction in the maximum load that the structure is able to support in contrast to classical buckling load of the perfect structure. The initial imperfections are treated as random functions of axial coordinate. In order to reduce the needed number of simulations, the Monte Carlo method is coupled with maximum likelihood methodology and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test.     

Geometrically Nonlinear Cantilever under Stochastic Loading Vectors

This paper deals with the static and dynamic response of acantilever beam affected by Gaussian and non-Gaussian vectorprocesses. The load is modeled by three different correlationstructures based on the second-order Markov process, and thenon-Gaussian random features are described by translationprocesses. Both the linear and geometrically nonlinear behaviorare described using the finite element approach, and the beammechanical characteristics (natural frequencies and damping) arevaried to investigate their influence on the response. Finally,the Monte Carlo approach is used to estimate the responsestatistics. The transverse displacement and the bending moment atthe beam joints are used to summarize the obtained results interms of skewness and kurtosis coefficients, and probabilitydensity functions. The study presented in this paper providesinformation on the influence of the load nature and the structuralbehavior on the response random features.     

薄壁圆筒壳初始几何缺陷不确定性量化的极大熵方法

针对薄壁圆筒壳结构轴压屈曲载荷的缺陷敏感性以及真实几何缺陷的不确定性,提出一种基于实测缺陷数据和极大熵原理的初始缺陷建模与屈曲载荷预测方法。首先,将初始几何缺陷视为二维随机场,并利用实测缺陷数据和Karhunen-Loève展开法将初始缺陷的随机场建模转化为随机向量的建模;其次,利用极大熵方法确定随机向量的概率分布;最后,基于所构建的初始缺陷随机模型,利用MCMC抽样方法和确定性屈曲分析方法,进行随机屈曲分析并给出基于可靠度的屈曲载荷折减因子。数值算例表明,与直接假设随机场相关结构的方法相比,本文方法的结果是对薄壁圆筒壳屈曲载荷的一个更无偏估计。     

A direct probabilistic approach to solve state equations for nonlinear systems under random excitation

In this paper, a direct probabilistic approach (DPA) is presented to formulate and solve moment equations for nonlinear systems excited by environmental loads that can be either a stationary or nonstationary random process. The proposed method has the advantage of obtaining the response’s moments directly from the initial conditions and statistical characteristics of the corresponding external exci-tations. First, the response’s moment equations are directly derived based on a DPA, which is completely independent of the It?/filtering approach since no specific assumptions regarding the correlation structure of excitation are made. By solving them under Gaussian closure, the response’s moments can be obtained. Subsequently, a multiscale algo-rithm for the numerical solution of moment equations is exploited to improve computational efficiency and avoid much wall-clock time. Finally, a comparison of the results with Monte Carlo (MC) simulation gives good agreement. Furthermore, the advantage of the multiscale algorithm in terms of efficiency is also demonstrated by an engineering example.     

Shells with random geometric imperfections simulation — based approach

The paper concerns the stochastic analysis of the static response of materially and geometrically non-linear models of imperfect shell structures. Geometric imperfections of shells are described using random variables or random fields. The Monte Carlo method combined with a finite element program analysis is employed. The proposed approach is used to analyse the non-linear post-buckling behaviour of a shallow cylindrical shell. The numerically obtained critical load histograms allow to estimate the structure reliability. The accuracy of simulation-based approach is discussed.     

Dynamic reliability analysis of a cantilever beam during a deterioration process

Considering deterioration process of a beam structure subjected to cyclic load, the reliability and sensitivity analysis is presented. Gamma process is introduced to describe the deterioration of properties and the accuracy of the model is verified by experiments of structures under cycle load. A set of experiments is designed to investigate the deterioration process of the beam under cycle load. For arbitrarily distributed random material and geometric variables, the stochastic perturbation method and Edgeworth series are used to approximate the statistical characteristics of vibration and failure probability. Monte Carlo simulation is employed to show the validity of the method proposed. Additionally, the effects of material and geometric parameters are discussed to provide important information for design and use of beam structures.     

基于马尔科夫链与鞍点逼近的模糊随机可靠性分析方法

针对同时存在随机不确定性和模糊不确定性的可靠性分析问题,提出了两种高效解决方法。一种是迭代马尔科夫链鞍点逼近法,该方法的基本思想是给定隶属水平下由迭代马尔科夫链和一次鞍点逼近法求得可靠度上下限,不同的隶属水平对应不同的可靠度上下限,遍历隶属水平的取值区间[0,1]即可求得可靠度隶属函数,与传统的两相Monte Carlo数字模拟法和迭代一次二阶矩法相比,该方法具有效率高和对非正态基本随机变量不需要进行正态转换的优点;第二种方法是迭代条件概率马尔科夫链模拟法,该方法在求解给定隶属度水平下的可靠度上下限时,由条件概率公式引入一个非线性修正因子,该因子的引入大大提高了功能函数为非线性的可靠性问题的求解精度。本文算例验证了所提方法的优越性。     

非Gauss分布随机波浪力对海洋平台的非线性作用

为避免求解决定Maikov过程转移概率密度的Fokker—Planck方程，基于尺度分离的假设导出了一组描述非线性海洋平台受非Gauss分布随机波浪载荷作用所产生响应的矩量的常微分方程组。矩量方程清楚地反映出分别对应随机载荷和结构响应的两种不同统计特性的相互关系。由于矩量方程不依赖载荷的概率分布的具体细节，以它来模拟随机激励作用下的非线性系统将免于Monte Carlo方法所面临的正确模拟载荷概率分布的困难任务。将摄动法用于矩量方程可使线性化不再需要，这样就不会因为线性化而产生不可预料的误差。     

Application of an Itô-based approximation method to random vibration of a pinching hysteretic system

In this paper, an extension of the Cumulant-Neglect closure scheme is utilized for the random vibration analysis of a single degree of freedom system with a general pinching hysteresis restoring force. The hysteresis element used in the system model can simulate commonly observed forms of stiffness, strength and pinching degradations. The second order statistics of the system response to a stationary Gaussian white noise input are derived using an Itô-based approximation technique. The validity of these response statistics are then verified by comparing them to Monte Carlo simulation results. The numerical studies performed for different combinations of degradation parameters and excitation levels show that the response estimates obtained by this solution method are in good agreement with Monte Carlo simulation. These studies also indicate the applicability of this technique for response analysis of complicated forms of non-linearities.     

Multiple Internal Resonance in Suspended Cables under Random In-Plane Loading

The random excitation of a suspended cable with simultaneous internal resonances is considered. The internal resonances can take place among the first in-plane and the first two out-of-plane modes. The external loading is represented by a wide-band random process. The response statistics are estimated using the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation, together with Gaussian and non-Gaussian closures. Monte Carlo simulation is also used for numerical verification. The unimodal in-plane motion exists in regions away from the internal resonance condition. The mixed mode interaction is manifested within a limited range of internal detuning parameters, depending on the excitation power spectrum density and damping ratios. The Gaussian closure scheme failed to predict bounded solutions of mixed mode interaction. The non-Gaussian closure results are in good agreement with the Monte Carlo simulation. The on-off intermittency of the autoparametrically excited modes is observed in the Monte Carlo simulation over a small range of excitation levels. The influence of the cable parameters, such as damping ratios, sag-to-span ratio, internal detuning parameters, and excitation level on the autoparametric interaction, is studied. It is found that the internal detuning and excitation level are the two main parameters which affect the autoparametric interaction among the three modes. Due to the system's nonlinearity, the response of the three modes is strongly non-Gaussian and the coupled modes experience irregular modulation.     

Stochastic nonlinear bending response of laminated composite plates with system randomness under lateral pressure and thermal loading

In this paper, the effect of sensitivity of randomness in system parameters on the nonlinear transverse central deflection response of laminated composite plates subjected to transverse uniform lateral pressure and thermal loading is examined. System parameters such as the lamina material properties, expansion of thermal coefficients, lamina plate thickness and lateral load are modelled as basic random variables. A higher order shear deformation theory in the von-Karman sense is used to model the system behavior of the laminated plate. A direct iterative-based C ⁰ nonlinear finite element method in conjunction with the first-order perturbation technique developed by the authors is extended for thermal problem to obtain the second-order response statistics, i.e., mean and variance of the nonlinear transverse deflection of the plate. Typical numerical results of composite plates with temperature independent and dependent material properties subjected to uniform temperature and combination of uniform and transverse temperature are obtained for various combinations of geometric parameters, uniform lateral pressures, staking sequences and boundary conditions. The results have been compared with those available in the literature and an independent Monte Carlo simulation.     

Improved Response Surface Method for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis of Nonlinear Random Structures Under Non-Stationary Excitations

The problem of time-variant reliability analysis of randomly driven linear/nonlinear vibrating structures is studied. The excitations are considered to be non-stationary Gaussian processes. The structure properties are modeled as non-Gaussian random variables. The structural responses are therefore non-Gaussian processes, the distributions of which are not generally available in an explicit form. The limit state is formulated in terms of the extreme value distribution of the response random process. Developing these extreme value distributions analytically is not easy, which makes failure probability estimations difficult. An alternative procedure, based on a newly developed improved response surface method, is used for computing exceedance probabilities. This involves fitting a global response surface which approximates the limit surface in regions which make significant contributions to the failure probability. Subsequent Monte Carlo simulations on the fitted response surface yield estimates of failure probabilities. The method is integrated with professional finite element software which permits reliability analysis of large structures with complexities that include material and geometric nonlinear behavior. Three numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the method.     

An analysis of perturbation based methods for the treatment of parameter uncertainty in numerical groundwater models

Monte Carlo methods are robust approaches for the estimation of prediction uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modelling under uncertain model parameters. However Monte Carlo procedures estimate the prediction statistics by generating a population of solutions from random realisations of the model parameters which are consistent with the parameter statistics, and as a result are computationally demanding. Taylor series based procedures offer an alternative to Monte Carlo methods for calculating the prediction statistics. Two such approaches, the first-order second moment and McLaughlin and Wood's perturbation method, are based on using a Taylor series to derive approximate expressions for the model predictions first and second statistical moments. In this paper the perturbation method presented by McLaughlin and Wood is rederived using Vetter matrix notation. This is compared with the first-order second moment (FOSM) method and while the steady state expressions for these two approaches are shown to be equivalent, the transient forms are considerably different. A new form of the FOSM is derived, which is simpler and has a lower computational burden. However, the transient McLaughlin and Wood expression is found to have a significantly lower computational overhead than either of the FOSM methods presented.     

Application of the probabilistic fracture mechanics method of predicting the fatigue life of tubular joints

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简支梁非线性响应的三维路径积分法分析

采用基于Gauss-Legendre积分公式的三维路径积分法,分析了在过滤高斯白噪声激励下的简支梁非线性随机振动响应的概率密度函数;联立一阶滤波方程与简支梁一阶模态的振动模型,得到在过滤高斯白噪声激励下的简支梁随机振动模型,基于Gauss-Legendre积分公式的积分法和短时高斯近似法求解响应的概率密度函数值。结果表明,三维路径积分法计算值与蒙特卡洛模拟值符合良好,即使在尾部区域也符合良好。三维路径积分法比等效线性化法的计算精度更高。