A framework for performance measurement during production ramp-up of assembly stations

Production ramp-up is an important phase in the lifecycle of a manufacturing system which still has significant potential for improvement and thereby reducing the time-to-market of new and updated products. Production systems today are mostly one-of-a-kind complex, engineered-to-order systems. Their ramp-up is a complex order of physical and logical adjustments which are characterised by try and error decision making resulting in frequent reiterations and unnecessary repetitions. Studies have shown that clear goal setting and feedback can significantly improve the effectiveness of decision-making in predominantly human decision processes such as ramp-up. However, few measurement-driven decision aides have been reported which focus on ramp-up improvement and no systematic approach for ramp-up time reduction has yet been defined. In this paper, a framework for measuring the performance during ramp-up is proposed in order to support decision making by providing clear metrics based on the measurable and observable status of the technical system. This work proposes a systematic framework for data preparation, ramp-up formalisation, and performance measurement. A model for defining the ramp-up state of a system has been developed in order to formalise and capture its condition. Functionality, quality and performance based metrics have been identified to formalise a clear ramp-up index as a measurement to guide and support the human decision making. For the validation of the proposed framework, two ramp-up processes of an assembly station were emulated and their comparison was used to evaluate this work.     

A DSS design framework for competitive strategy formulation

This paper discusses the design framework that is actually being used in a large corporation for building a special purpose decision support system for competitive strategy formulation. The main features of the design framework employed are its ability to provide (i) support for decision-making through management science/operations research, (ii) decision-making support to managers of different levels and functions, (iii) methods to evaluate the performances of managers of different levels as well as that of the firm, (iv) to integrate a variety of decision-making models into a competitive strategy formulation model, and (v) to increase the effectiveness through an evolutionary and participatory development process.     

A case-based fuzzy multicriteria decision support model for tropical cyclone forecasting

This paper proposes a multi-stage framework for intelligent decision support. The proposed framework integrates case-based reasoning and fuzzy multicriteria decision making techniques. It potentially leads to more accurate, flexible and efficient retrieval of alternatives that are most similar and most useful to the current decision situation. Additionally, the framework provides intelligent assistance in articulating domain expert's preferences through outranking relations. We illustrated the proposed approach in the context of tropical cyclone prediction. Ten years of historical observation data about tropical cyclones was represented within fuzzy multicriteria decision-making problem. We describe a prototype intelligent decision support system, which helps the forecaster in retrieving best-fitted solutions in terms of both usefulness and similarity to the current observed case.     

Integrated decision support for aviation safety inspectors

This paper presents a systems viewpoint for developing an advanced decision support system for aircraft safety inspectors. Research results from a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) sponsored project to use neural network and expert systems technology to analyze aircraft maintenance databases are summarized. One of the main objectives of this research is to define more refined “alert” indicators for national comparison purposes that can signal potential problem areas by aircraft type for safety inspector consideration.

Integration aspects are addressed on two levels: (1) integration of the various technical components of the decision support system, and (2) integration of the decision support system with individual behavior, management systems and organizational structure, as well as corporate culture across both formal and informal dimensions. The paper summarizes the creation of strategic “inspection profiles” for aging aircraft and reliability curve fitting for structural components both based upon using neural network technology. Also, the potential use of a model-based expert system to facilitate field inspection diagnostics is presented. Finally, a framework for developing an intelligent decision system to support aircraft safety inspections is proposed that links expert systems, neural networks, as well as a paradigm of the decision making process typically used in unstructured situations.     

A framework for participatory decision support using Pareto frontier visualization,goal identification and arbitration

There is a growing interest in promoting participation of lay stakeholders in public decision-making processes, possibly with the aid of Internet-based systems. This implies supporting non-sophisticated users and, consequently, developing user-friendly, yet rigorous, participatory decision support methods. We outline a framework to develop such methods based on interactive Pareto frontier visualization combined with expression of preferences in terms of feasible goals and using feasible goal-based arbitration.     

A systems approach to identifying decisive information for sustainable development

Many governments are striving to implement sustainable development programs. While there are many definitions of `sustainability', most agree that a more comprehensive information infrastructure including economic, social, environmental, and cultural measures is required to assess courses of action and evaluate progress. Also critical is the development of information about the structure and behavior of the systems in which decisions are made. Most of the efforts toward the identification of information to support sustainable development decision making have focused on developing measures of progress toward sustainability. The Pressure-State-Response framework has been suggested as a method for capturing perceptions of causality. This framework fails to capture important information about complex causal relationships and system behavior. A systems approach to identifying decisive information is discussed as an alternative. This approach supports the identification of relationships among the indicators, learning about the behavior of the system, and provides a common language for interdisciplinary communication.     

Interaction of trip decisions and traffic systems dynamics

A major difficulty in the study of large-scale complex systems involving human decision-making with non-linear collective effects is that of obtaining pertinent data at the desired level of detail. A controlled experiment involving real commuters in a hypothetical computer simulated traffic system is described as an alternative approach of conducting observational studies to support the modelling of such complex dynamic interactive decision systems. An overview of the principal characteristics of the traffic system's evolution obtained in this experiment is presented. Also illustrated are the features of a proposed behavioral framework where users are viewed as boundedly rational seekers of a satisfactory choice outcome.     

Modelling and decision support in physiology and medicine: a methodological framework with lllustration

This paper presents a methodological framework for modelling that has found wide application in the complex domains of physiology and medicine. The processes of model validation are centrally embedded within this framework. The parallelism between modelling per se and the development of model-based decision support systems is then considered, showing that it is possible to devise a unified methodological framework which encompasses the requirements both of model validation and decision support system evaluation. The applicability of the framework is demonstrated in the validation of a mathematical model of blood glucose dynamics; and in the development and evaluation of decision support systems such as those which are aimed at addressing the problem of advising the insulin-dependent diabetic patient on the adjustment of insulin dosage     

Crop planning optimization model: the validation and verification processes

Each optimization problem in the area of natural resources claims for a specific validation and verification (V&V) procedures which, for overwhelming majority of the models, have not been developed so far. In this paper we develop V&V procedures for the crop planning optimization models in agriculture when the randomness of harvests is considered and complex crop rotation restrictions must hold. We list the criteria for developing V&V processes in this particular case, discuss the restrictions given by the data availability and suggest the V&V procedures. To show its relevance, they are applied to recently constructed stochastic programming model aiming to serve as a decision support tool for crop plan optimization in South Moravian farm. We find that the model is verified and valid and if applied in practice—it thus offers a plausible alternative to standard decision making routine on farms which often leads to breaking the crop rotation rules.     

Exploring alternative routes to realising the benefits of simulation in healthcare

Discrete event simulation should offer numerous benefits in designing healthcare systems but the reality is often problematic. Healthcare modelling faces particular challenges: genuine, fundamental variations in practice and an opposition to any suggestion of standardisation from some professional groups. This paper compares the experiences of developing a new simulation in an Accident and Emergency (A&E) Department, a subsequent adaptation for modelling an outpatient clinic and applications of a generic A&E simulation. These studies provide examples of three distinct approaches to realising the potential benefits of simulation: the bespoke, the reuse and the generic route. Reuse has many advantages: it is relatively efficient in exploiting previous modelling experience, delivering timely results although providing scope for adaptations to local practice. Explicitly demonstrating this willingness to adapt to local conditions and engaging with stakeholders is particularly important in healthcare simulation.     

Optimising a value-based performance indicator in mid-term sales and operations planning

Economic Value Added (EVA^®) and corresponding value driver trees are prevalent frameworks of value-based management to measure and analyse shareholder value creation. However, they are explanatory models from an operations research perspective and do not provide decision support for performance optimisation. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive value-based decision framework for mid-term sales and operations planning (S&OP) in the supply chain implementing EVA as the objective function. The pivotal element of our framework is a decision-oriented extension of EVA-based value driver trees bridging the gap to the decision variables of S&OP as the operational performance levers. We utilise a numerical example to highlight the significant improvement potential due to the value-based optimisation approach. Working capital management emerges as the major mid- to short-term value driver in the supply chain.     

Looking in the wrong place for healthcare improvements: A system dynamics study of an accident and emergency department

Accident and Emergency (A&E) units provide a route for patients requiring urgent admission to acute hospitals. Public concern over long waiting times for admissions motivated this study, whose aim is to explore the factors which contribute to such delays. The paper discusses the formulation and calibration of a system dynamics model of the interaction of demand pattern, A&E resource deployment, other hospital processes and bed numbers; and the outputs of policy analysis runs of the model which vary a number of the key parameters. Two significant findings have policy implications. One is that while some delays to patients are unavoidable, reductions can be achieved by selective augmentation of resources within, and relating to, the A&E unit. The second is that reductions in bed numbers do not increase waiting times for emergency admissions, their effect instead being to increase sharply the number of cancellations of admissions for elective surgery. This suggests that basing A&E policy solely on any single criterion will merely succeed in transferring the effects of a resource deficit to a different patient group.     

Range-based Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis: A combined method of Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to support participatory decision making under uncertainty

Concerns about environmental and social effects have made Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) increasingly popular. Decision making in complex contexts often – possibly always – requires addressing an aggregation of multiple issues to meet social, economic, legal, technical, and environmental objectives. These values at stake may affect different stakeholders through distributional effects characterized by a high and heterogeneous uncertainty that no social actors can completely control or understand. On this basis, we present a new process framework that aims to support participatory decision making under uncertainty: the range-based Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (range-based MAMCA). On the one hand, the process framework explicitly considers stakeholders’ objectives at an output level of aggregation. On the other hand, by means of a Monte Carlo analysis, the method also provides an exploratory scenario approach that enables the capture of the uncertainty, which stems from the complex context evolution. Range-based MAMCA offers a unique participatory process framework that enables us (1) to identify the alternatives pros and cons for each stakeholder group; (2) to provide probabilities about the risk of supporting mistaken, or at least ill-suited, decisions because of the uncertainty regarding to the decision-making context; (3) to take the decision-makers’ limited control of the actual policy effects over the implementation of one or several options into account. The range-based MAMCA framework is illustrated by means of our first case study that aimed to assess French stakeholders’ support for different biofuel options by 2030.     

A knowledge-based multi-role decision support system for ore blending cost optimization of blast furnaces

Literature illustrates the difficulties in obtaining the lowest-cost optimal solution to an ore blending problem for blast furnaces by using the traditional trial-and-error method in iron and steel enterprises. To solve this problem, we developed a cost optimization model which we have implemented in a multi-role-based decision support system (DSS). On the basis of analyzing the business flow and working process of ore blending, we propose an architecture of DSS which is built based on multi-roles. This DSS construction pre-processes the data for materials and elements, builds a general database, abstracts the related optimal operations research models and introduces the reasoning mechanism of an expert system. A non-linear model of ore blending for blast furnaces and its solutions are provided. A database, a model base and a knowledge base are integrated into the expert system-based multi-role DSS to meet the different demands of data, information and decision-making knowledge for the various roles of users. A comparison of the results for the DSS and the trial-and-error method is provided. The system has produced excellent economic benefits since it was implemented at the Xiangtan Iron & Steel Group Co. Ltd., China.     

IP-MAGS: an incomplete preference-based multiple attribute group support system

In this research, we develop a group decision support system to deal with multiple attribute group decision-making problems, which involve getting incomplete judgements of individual preference and aggregating the judgements by means of the additive preference model. Dominance-based decision-making rules are built in and applied to obtain a group's preferred alternative. The proposed system, above all, allows for more various forms of incomplete judgements than prior systems that were designed to handle group decision problems. A user-friendly graphical interface enables users to easily encode their incomplete judgements. Further, the system helps individuals revise their preference judgements by referring them to their own decision results in comparison with the group's aggregated decision result. The system is a web-based application system, which enables bidirectional communications between individuals and the system. Any individual who is involved in a group decision-making problem is able to participate in the decision-making process from a remote site. Furthermore, we present a real-life case study on the selection of a branch office server that has been carried out using the proposed system.     

Interactive multicriteria procedure exploiting a knowledge-based module to select electricity production alternatives: The CASTART system

For some decisional problems, it is difficult to have a set of potential alternatives a priori. This is true, for instance, when the object of the decision is dependent on an external environment, as in the case of disturbance situations in industrial processes. Computer assistance must support, first, the elaboration of a potential alternatives set and, second, the decision-making activity which will determine the decision elements leading to recovery from the disturbance. This paper deals with such a situation encountered in an electricity production context. An interactive multicriteria procedure exploiting a knowledge-based module to select electricity production alternatives is presented. Section 1 introduces the electricity production-consumption framework and identifies the Spinning Reserve Mobilization (SRM) function. Next, our contribution to the systematization and the experimentation of a decision-making process which supports the dispatcher confronted with an SRM situation is described. The decision-making process includes an intelligent module and a decisional procedure. The module and the procedure, and their interconnections, are developed in Section 2. Section 3 describes the DSS called CASTART which implements this process. An overview of DSS functionalities is given, as well as the results obtained by a dispatcher working in cooperation with the system, in the case of a simulated production incident.     

Discriminating efficient units using MAJ FDH

Free Disposal Hull (FDH) is one of the tools in the theoretical and empirical work on the measurement of productive efficiency. Excluding linear combinations of extremal observations to construct this reference technology entails that many of the observations belonging to an evaluated dataset are labeled efficient by this method. Few researchers have sought to improve the discrimination power of FDH. Van Puyenbroeck [H. Tulkens, On FDH efficiency analysis: some methodological issues and applications to retail, banking, courts and urban transit, Journal of Productivity Analysis 4 (1993) 183-210] modified standard FDH method by using Andersen and Petersen [N. Adler, L. Friedman, Z. Siunuany-Stern, Review of ranking methods in the data envelopment analysis context, European Journal of Operational Research, 140 (2002) 249-265], referred to A&P FDH. Jahanshahloo et al. [J. Doyle, R. Green, Efficiency and cross-efficiency in DEA: derivation, meanings and uses, Journal of Operational Research Society 45 (5) (1994) 567-578] used 0-1 linear programming (LP), referred to 0-1 LP FDH to find FDH-efficient units. The purpose of this paper is two-folds: to propose MAJ FDH, similar to in spirit as the ranking method in data envelopment analysis by Mehrabian et al. [S. Mehrabian, M.R. Alirezaee, G.R. Jahanshahloo, A complete efficiency ranking of decision making units in data envelopment analysis, Communicational Optimization and Applications 14 (1999) 261-266] that may thus be used to discriminate between FDH-efficient units and to examine the tie-breaking ability of A&P FDH, 0-1 LP FDH, and MAJ FDH by using three numerical examples. Results of the comparisons show: (i) as the number of DMU, input and output is small where all of input and output levels are positive, the A&P FDH can provide a full ranking; (ii) as the number of DMU, input and output is small where some of input and output levels are equal to zero, none of three extended FDH methods can provide a full ranking; and (iii) as the number of DMU, input and output are increased where all of input and output levels are positive, it seems that ranking by MAJ FDH is more precise than other FDH methods.     

Selecting intervention strategies against eutrophication and the drastic decrease in bird abundance in Ringkøbing Fjord

Ringkøbing Fjord is a large and shallow brackish lagoon on the west coast of Denmark that has gone through two environmental regime shifts in recent decades. Different intervention strategies, including nutrient abatement and the construction of facilities to increase the water exchange between the lagoon and the outside sea, have been proposed to achieve good water quality in terms of trophic state and conditions for waterfowl. The selection of an intervention strategy is a complex decision-making problem in which several conflicting objectives, like costs of application and environmental or social impacts, must be taken into account simultaneously. We propose a PC-based decision support system, called the Generic Multi-Attribute Analysis system, to deal with such interdisciplinary analyses. It evaluates the intervention strategies by means of an additive multiattribute utility model accounting for imprecision of the various components of the analysis, such as intervention strategy performances and decision-makers’ preferences. Also, it implements what is known as decision making with partial information, through the application of Monte Carlo simulation techniques. This enables a straightforward analysis of the difference between an anthropocentrist and an ecocentrist view of the problem, from which a final recommendation can be reached.     

A transdisciplinary approach for formalized integrated planning and decision-making in complex systems

Multi-sectoral systems, such as cities or regional economies, face strategic challenges of optimal development due to the complexity of interacting perspectives, interests, and preferences of decision-makers and stakeholders. In coping with these challenges, integrated approaches in strategic planning and decision support promise to generate more efficient and effective results than sectoral approaches. In this article, we follow the concept of operational research (OR) by applying a formalized approach to cross-sectoral integrated planning and decision-making in complex, i.e., multi-sectoral systems. The presented Transdisciplinary Integrated Planning and Synthesis (TIPS) approach relies on (soft) OR methods combined in a multi-methodological framework that is adapted to the cognitive skills and habits of the stakeholders and experts involved in mutual and joint learning processes (transdisciplinarity). This methodological contribution structures, formalizes, and empirically illustrates cross-sectoral integrated strategic planning step by step, and evaluates the TIPS methodology against requirements for integrated approaches derived from literature.     

Comparison of some AI and statistical classification methods for a marketing case

Recent progress in data processing technology has made the accumulation and systematic organization of large volumes of data a routine activity. As a result of these developments, there is an increasing need for data-based or data-driven methods of model development. This paper describes data-driven classification methods and shows that the automatic development and refinement of decision support models is now possible when the machine is given a large (or sometimes even a small) amount of observations that express instances of a certain task domain. The classifier obtained may be used to build a decision support system, to refine or update an existing system and to understand or improve a decision-making process. The described AI classification methods are compared with statistical classification methods for a marketing application. They can act as a basis for data-driven decision support systems that have two basic components: an automated knowledge module and an advice module or, in different terms, an automated knowledge acquisition/retrieval module and a knowledge processing module. When these modules are integrated or linked, a decision support system can be created which enables an organization to make better-quality decisions, with reduced variance, probably using fewer people.