Limit theorems in the Fourier transform method for the estimation of multivariate volatility

In this paper, we prove some limit theorems for the Fourier estimator of multivariate volatility proposed by Malliavin and Mancino (2002, 2009) [14] and [15]. In a general framework of discrete time observations we establish the convergence of the estimator and some associated central limit theorems with explicit asymptotic variance. In particular, our results show that this estimator is consistent for synchronous data, but possibly biased for non-synchronous observations. Moreover, from our general central limit theorem, we deduce that the estimator can be efficient in the case of a synchronous regular sampling. In the non-synchronous sampling case, the expression of the asymptotic variance is in general less tractable. We study this case more precisely through the example of an alternate sampling.     

Sudakov's typical marginals, random linear functionals and a conditional central limit theorem

Summary. V.N. Sudakov [Sud78] proved that the one-dimensional marginals of a high-dimensional second order measure are close to each other in most directions. Extending this and a related result in the context of projection pursuit of P. Diaconis and D. Freedman [Dia84], we give for a probability measure and a random (a.s.) linear functional on a Hilbert space simple sufficient conditions under which most of the one-dimensional images of under are close to their canonical mixture which turns out to be almost a mixed normal distribution. Using the concept of approximate conditioning we deduce a conditional central limit theorem (theorem 3) for random averages of triangular arrays of random variables which satisfy only fairly weak asymptotic orthogonality conditions. Received: 25 July 1995 / In revised form: 20 June 1996     

Change point estimators by local polynomial fits under a dependence assumption

We study a random design regression model generated by dependent observations, when the regression function itself (or its ν-th derivative) may have a change or discontinuity point. A method based on the local polynomial fits with one-sided kernels to estimate the location and the jump size of the change point is applied in this paper. When the jump location is known, a central limit theorem for the estimator of the jump size is established; when the jump location is unknown, we first obtain a functional limit theorem for a local dilated-rescaled version estimator of the jump size and then give the asymptotic distributions for the estimators of the location and the jump size of the change point. The asymptotic results obtained in this paper can be viewed as extensions of corresponding results for independent observations. Furthermore, a simulated example is given to show that our theory and method perform well in practice.     

Fourier transform methods for pathwise covariance estimation in the presence of jumps

We provide a new non-parametric Fourier procedure to estimate the trajectory of the instantaneous covariance process (from discrete observations of a multidimensional price process) in the presence of jumps extending the seminal work of Malliavin and Mancino (2002, 2009). Our approach relies on a modification of (classical) jump-robust estimators of integrated realized covariance to estimate the Fourier coefficients of the covariance trajectory. Using Fourier–Féjer inversion we reconstruct the path of the instantaneous covariance. We prove consistency and a central limit theorem (CLT) and in particular that the asymptotic estimator variance is smaller by a factor 2/3 in comparison to classical local estimators.     

Functional limit theorems for generalized quadratic variations of Gaussian processes

In this paper, we establish functional convergence theorems for second order quadratic variations of Gaussian processes which admit a singularity function. First, we prove a functional almost sure convergence theorem, and a functional central limit theorem, for the process of second order quadratic variations, and we illustrate these results with the example of the fractional Brownian sheet (FBS). Second, we do the same study for the process of localized second order quadratic variations, and we apply the results to the multifractional Brownian motion (MBM).     

Multivariate versions of Bartlett’s formula

This paper quantifies the form of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the sample autocovariances in a multivariate stationary time series—the classic Bartlett formula. Such quantification is useful in many statistical inferences involving autocovariances. While joint asymptotic normality of the sample autocovariances is well-known in univariate settings, explicit forms of the asymptotic covariances have not been investigated in the general multivariate non-Gaussian case. We fill this gap by providing such an analysis, bookkeeping all skewness terms. Additionally, following a recent univariate paper by Francq and Zakoian, we consider linear processes driven by non-independent errors, a feature that permits consideration of multivariate GARCH processes.     

Limit theorems for bipower variation of semimartingales

This paper presents limit theorems for certain functionals of semimartingales observed at high frequency. In particular, we extend results from Jacod (2008) [5] to the case of bipower variation, showing under standard assumptions that one obtains a limiting variable, which is in general different from the case of a continuous semimartingale. In a second step a truncated version of bipower variation is constructed, which has a similar asymptotic behaviour as standard bipower variation for a continuous semimartingale and thus provides a feasible central limit theorem for the estimation of the integrated volatility even when the semimartingale exhibits jumps.     

A central limit theorem for martingales and an application to branching processes

A functional central limit theorem is obtained for martingales which are not uniformly asymptotically negligible but grow at a geometric rate. The function space is not the usual C[0,1] or D[0,1] but R^N, the space of all real sequences and the metric used leads to a non-separable metric space.The main theorem is applied to a martingale obtained from a supercritical Galton-Watson branching process and as simple corollaries the already known central limit theorems for the Harris and Lotka-Nagaev estimators of the mean of the offspring distribution, are obtained.     

The central limit theorem for sums of trimmed variables with heavy tails

Trimming is a standard method to decrease the effect of large sample elements in statistical procedures, used, e.g., for constructing robust estimators and tests. Trimming also provides a profound insight into the partial sum behavior of i.i.d. sequences. There is a wide and nearly complete asymptotic theory of trimming, with one remarkable gap: no satisfactory criteria for the central limit theorem for modulus trimmed sums have been found, except for symmetric random variables. In this paper we investigate this problem in the case when the variables are in the domain of attraction of a stable law. Our results show that for modulus trimmed sums the validity of the central limit theorem depends sensitively on the behavior of the tail ratio P(X>t)/P(|X|>t) of the underlying variable X as t→∞ and paradoxically, increasing the number of trimmed elements does not generally improve partial sum behavior.     

Three limit theorems for vacancy in multivariate coverage problems

Three limit theorems describing asymptotic distribution of vacancy in general multivariate coverage problems are proved, in which nk-dimensional spheres are distributed within a k-dimensional unit cube according to a density f. The first result (a central limit theorem) describes the case where the proportion of vacancy converges to a fixed constant lying between 0 and 1. The last two results treat the case where the proportion of vacancy tends to 1 as n → ∞. Results of this nature have hitherto been available only for restricted k and/or for f equal to the uniform density.     

Asymptotic results for time-changed Lévy processes sampled at hitting times

We provide asymptotic results for time-changed Lévy processes sampled at random instants. The sampling times are given by the first hitting times of symmetric barriers, whose distance with respect to the starting point is equal to ε. For a wide class of Lévy processes, we introduce a renormalization depending on ε, under which the Lévy process converges in law to an α-stable process as ε goes to 0. The convergence is extended to moments of hitting times and overshoots. These results can be used to build high frequency statistical procedures. As examples, we construct consistent estimators of the time change and, in the case of the CGMY process, of the Blumenthal-Getoor index. Convergence rates and a central limit theorem for suitable functionals of the increments of the observed process are established under additional assumptions.     

On Pearson-Kotz Dirichlet distributions

In this paper, we discuss some basic distributional and asymptotic properties of the Pearson-Kotz Dirichlet multivariate distributions. These distributions, which appear as the limit of conditional Dirichlet random vectors, possess many appealing properties and are interesting from theoretical as well as applied points of view. We illustrate an application concerning the approximation of the joint conditional excess distribution of elliptically symmetric random vectors.     

A wavelet analysis of the Rosenblatt process: Chaos expansion and estimation of the self-similarity parameter

By using chaos expansion into multiple stochastic integrals, we make a wavelet analysis of two self-similar stochastic processes: the fractional Brownian motion and the Rosenblatt process. We study the asymptotic behavior of the statistic based on the wavelet coefficients of these processes. Basically, when applied to a non-Gaussian process (such as the Rosenblatt process) this statistic satisfies a non-central limit theorem even when we increase the number of vanishing moments of the wavelet function. We apply our limit theorems to construct estimators for the self-similarity index and we illustrate our results by simulations.     

A CLT concerning critical points of random functions on a Euclidean space

We prove a central limit theorem concerning the number of critical points in large cubes of an isotropic Gaussian random function on a Euclidean space.     

Asymptotic normal distribution of multidimensional statistics of dependent random variables

A central limit theorem for multidimensional processes in the sense of [9], [10] is proved. In particular the asymptotic normal distribution of a sum of dependent random functions of m variables defined on the positive part of the integral lattice is established by the method of moments. The results obtained can be used, for example, in proving the asymptotic normality of different statistics of n₀-dependent random variables as well as to determine the asymptotic behaviour of the resultant of reflected waves of telluric type.     

Central limit theorem for integrated square error of multivariate nonparametric density estimators

Martingale theory is used to obtain a central limit theorem for degenerate U-statistics with variable kernels, which is applied to derive central limit theorems for the integrated square error of multivariate nonparametric density estimators. Previous approaches to this problem have employed Komlós-Major-Tusnády type approximations to the empiric distribution function, and have required the following two restrictive assumptions which are not necessary using the present approach: (i) the data are in one or two dimensions, and (ii) the estimator is constructed suboptimally.     

Central limit theorems for realized volatility under hitting times of an irregular grid

We consider a continuous semi-martingale sampled at hitting times of an irregular grid. The goal of this work is to analyze the asymptotic behavior of the realized volatility under this rather natural observation scheme. This framework strongly differs from the well understood situations when the sampling times are deterministic or when the grid is regular. Indeed, neither Gaussian approximations nor symmetry properties can be used. In this setting, as the distance between two consecutive barriers tends to zero, we establish central limit theorems for the normalized error of the realized volatility. In particular, we show that there is no bias in the limiting process.     

An estimator for the quadratic covariation of asynchronously observed Itô processes with noise: Asymptotic distribution theory

The article is devoted to the nonparametric estimation of the quadratic covariation of non-synchronously observed Itô processes in an additive microstructure noise model. In a high-frequency setting, we aim at establishing an asymptotic distribution theory for a generalized multiscale estimator including a feasible central limit theorem with optimal convergence rate on convenient regularity assumptions. The inevitably remaining impact of asynchronous deterministic sampling schemes and noise corruption on the asymptotic distribution is precisely elucidated. A case study for various important examples, several generalizations of the model and an algorithm for the implementation warrant the utility of the estimation method in applications.     

多维随机向量序列加权和的中心极限定理

本文研究了多维随机向量序列加权和的渐近行为.利用Lindeberg中心极限定理的基本思想,得到了多维随机向量序列加权和的中心极限定理及其收敛速度,为Lindeberg中心极限定理的推广.