Frequentist model averaging for linear mixed-effects models

Linear mixed-effects models are a powerful tool for the analysis of longitudinal data. The aim of this paper is to study model averaging for linear mixed-effects models. The asymptotic distribution of the frequentist model average estimator is derived, and a confidence interval procedure with an actual coverage probability that tends to the nominal level in large samples is developed. The two confidence intervals based on the model averaging and based on the full model are shown to be asymptotically equivalent. A simulation study shows good finite sample performance of the model average estimators.     

Bootstrapping the Kaplan–Meier estimator on the whole line

This article is concerned with proving the consistency of Efron’s bootstrap for the Kaplan–Meier estimator on the whole support of a survival function. While previous works address the asymptotic Gaussianity of the Kaplan–Meier estimator without restricting time, we enable the construction of bootstrap-based time-simultaneous confidence bands for the whole survival function. Other practical applications include bootstrap-based confidence bands for the mean residual lifetime function or the Lorenz curve as well as confidence intervals for the Gini index. Theoretical results are complemented with a simulation study and a real data example which result in statistical recommendations.

     

核实数据下非线性半参数EV模型的经验似然推断

考虑带有协变量误差的非线性半参数模型,借助于核实数据,本文构造了未知参数的三种经验对数似然比统计量,证明了所提出的统计量具有渐近X2分布,此结果可以用来构造未知参数的置信域．另外,本文也构造了未知参数的最小二乘估计量,并证明了它的渐近性质．仅就置信域及其覆盖概率的大小方面,通过模拟研究比较了经验似然方法与最小二乘法的优劣．     

A note on estimation of the mean residual life function with left-truncated and right-censored data

This note focuses on estimating the mean residual life function with left-truncated and right-censored data. We show that the proposed estimator converges weakly to a Gaussian process. The performances of the estimator and its pointwise confidence intervals are illustrated through simulation studies.     

Estimation and confidence bands of a conditional survival function with censoring indicators missing at random

The nonparametric estimator of the conditional survival function proposed by Beran is a useful tool to evaluate the effects of covariates in the presence of random right censoring. However, censoring indicators of right censored data may be missing for different reasons in many applications. We propose some estimators of the conditional cumulative hazard and survival functions which allow to handle this situation. We also construct the likelihood ratio confidence bands for them and obtain their asymptotic properties. Simulation studies are used to evaluate the performances of the estimators and their confidence bands.     

Remarks on between estimator in the intraclass correlation model with missing data

In this paper, we consider the between estimator under the intraclass correlation model with missing data. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for existing exact simultaneous confidence intervals for all contrasts in the means under the between transformed model, which indicates the F-test statistic and simultaneous confidence intervals, constructed by Seo et al. [T. Seo, J. Kikuchi, K. Koizumi, On simultaneous confidence intervals for all contracts in the means of the intraclass correlation model with missing data, J. Multivariate Anal. 97 (2006) 1976–1983] based on the between estimator, is invalid. Furthermore, using the distribution of the between estimator, we present the exact test statistics and confidence intervals for partial contrasts.     

具有重尾或异方差误差的双变量预测回归模型的中位无偏估计

In this paper, we consider median unbiased estimation of bivariate predictive regression models with non-normal, heavy-tailed or heterescedastic errors. We construct confidence intervals and median unbiased estimator for the parameter of interest. We show that the proposed estimator has better predictive potential than the usual least squares estimator via simulation. An empirical application to finance is given. And a possible extension of the estimation procedure to cointegration models is also described.     

线性混合效应模型的正交经验似然推断

基于经验似然方法和QR分解技术, 对线性混合效应模型提出了一个基于正交经验似然的估计方法. 在一些正则条件下, 证明了所提出的经验对数似然比函数渐近服从卡方分布, 进而给出了模型固定效应的置信区间估计. 所提出估计过程不受模型随机效应的影响, 进而保证了所给出的估计是比较有效的. 一些数值模拟和实例分析进一步表明了所提出的估计方法是行之有效的.     

Median Unbiased Estimation of Bivariate Predictive Regression Models with Heavy-tailed or Heteroscedastic Errors

In this paper, we consider median unbiased estimation of bivariate predictive regression models with non-normal, heavy-tailed or heteroscedastic errors. We construct confidence intervals and median unbiased estimator for the parameter of interest. We show that the proposed estimator has better predictive potential than the usual least squares estimator via simulation. An empirical application to finance is given. And a possible extension of the estimation procedure to cointegration models is also described.     

Simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function

The construction of the simultaneous confidence bands for the integrated hazard function is considered. The Nelson–Aalen estimator is used. The simultaneous confidence bands based on bootstrap methods are presented. Four methods of construction of such confidence bands are proposed. The weird and conditional bootstrap methods are used for resampling. Simulations are made to compare the actual coverage probability of the bootstrap and the asymptotic simultaneous confidence bands. It is shown that the equal-tailed bootstrap confidence band has the coverage probability closest to the nominal one. We also present application of our confidence bands to the data regarding survival after heart transplant. This research was partly supported by AGH grant No. 10.420.03.     

Quantile and tolerance-interval estimation in simulation

This paper discusses two sequential procedures to construct proportional half-width confidence intervals for a simulation estimator of the steady-state quantile and tolerance intervals for a stationary stochastic process having the (reasonable) property that the autocorrelation of the underlying process approaches zero with increasing lag. At each quantile to be estimated, the marginal cumulative distribution function must be absolutely continuous in some neighborhood of that quantile with a positive, continuous probability density function. These algorithms sequentially increase the simulation run length so that the quantile and tolerance-interval estimates satisfy pre-specified precision requirements. An experimental performance evaluation demonstrates the validity of these procedures.     

Multivariate estimation in regenerative simulation

A definition is given of regenerative simulation that applies to simulation that applies to simulations with multiple responses. Then, a multivariate regenerative estimator of the stationary mean response is presented and shown to be asymptotically normal. Methods for computing confidence regions and simultaneous confidence intervals are also presented.     

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线性测量误差模型的平均估计

频率模型平均估计近年来受到了较大的关注,但对有测量误差的观测数据尚未见到任何研究.文章主要考虑了线性测量误差模型的平均估计问题,导出了模型平均估计的渐近分布,基于Hjort和Claeskens(2003)的思想构造了一个覆盖真实参数的概率趋于预定水平的置信区间,并证明了该置信区间与基于全模型正态逼近所构造的置信区间的渐近等价性.模拟结果表明当协变量存在测量误差时,模型平均估计能明显增加点估计的效率.     

左删失右截断数据的分位数的固定宽度序贯置信区间估计

基于左截断右删失数据下的乘积限估计构造了分位数固定宽度序贯置信区间及其估计，研究了序贯置信区间估计的渐近性质。作为副产品，获得了分位数估计近邻点的Bahadur表示定理。这个表示定理是推导分位数固定宽度序贯置信区间估计渐近性质的重要基础。同时，在文中，进行了一些计算机模拟试验，证明了左截断右删失数据下分位数估计的序贯方法是效的和精确的。     

核实数据下响应变量缺失的线性EV模型经验似然推断

考虑响应变量随机缺失而协变量带有误差的线性模型,借助于核实数据和借补方法,构造了回归系数的两种经验似然比,证明了所提出的估计的经验对数似然比渐近于一个自由度为1的独立χ2变量的加权和;而经调整后所得的调整经验对数似然比渐近于自由度为p的χ2分布,该结果可以用来构造未知参数的置信域.此外,我们也构造了响应均值的调整经验对数似然比统计量,并证明了所提出的统计量渐近于x2分布,可用此结果构造响应均值的置信域.通过模拟研究比较了置信域的精度及其平均区间长度.     

Inference for the Mean Difference in the Two-Sample Random Censorship Model

Inference for the mean difference in the two-sample random censorship model is an important problem in comparative survival and reliability test studies. This paper develops an adjusted empirical likelihood inference and a martingale-based bootstrap inference for the mean difference. A nonparametric version of Wilks' theorem for the adjusted empirical likelihood is derived, and the corresponding empirical likelihood confidence interval of the mean difference is constructed. Also, it is shown that the martingale-based bootstrap gives a correct first order asymptotic approximation of the corresponding estimator of the mean difference, which ensures that the martingale-based bootstrap confidence interval has asymptotically correct coverage probability. A simulation study is conducted to compare the adjusted empirical likelihood, the martingale-based bootstrap, and Efron's bootstrap in terms of coverage accuracies and average lengths of the confidence intervals. The simulation indicates that the proposed adjusted empirical likelihood and the martingale-based bootstrap confidence procedures are comparable, and both seem to outperform Efron's bootstrap procedure.     

A note on studentized confidence intervals for the change-point

We study an AMOC time series model with an abrupt change in the mean and dependent errors that fulfill certain mixing conditions. It is known how to construct resampling confidence intervals using blocking techniques, but so far no studentizing has been considered. A simulation study shows that we obtain better intervals by studentizing. When studentizing dependent data, we need to use flat-top kernels for the estimation of the asymptotic variance. It turns out that this estimator taking possible changes into account behaves much better than the corresponding Bartlett estimator. Since the asymptotic distribution of change-point statistics for time-series depends on this value, having a good estimator under the null as well as alternatives is also essential for testing problems.     

Improved confidence intervals for the scale parameter of Burr XII model based on record values

In this paper some different sorts of confidence intervals are considered for the scale parameter of the Burr type XII distribution based on the upper record values. In this regard, the coverage probability is adopted as a measure of improvement when the endpoints are the same for all types of confidence intervals. Proposed confidence intervals are based on the preliminary test estimator, Thompson shrinkage estimator and Bayes estimator with conjugate prior information. It is nicely demonstrated that the confidence intervals based on the above methodologies are superior to the equal tail confidence interval on specific intervals. Subsequently, to construct a uniformly dominant confidence interval, the result of Kubokawa (Ann Stat 22(1):290–299, 1994) is extended for dependent observations by making use of the information that exists in a covariate record value.     

Maximum Kernel Likelihood Estimation

We introduce an estimator for the population mean based on maximizing likelihoods formed by parameterizing a kernel density estimate. Due to these origins, we have dubbed the estimator the maximum kernel likelihood estimate (MKLE). A speedy computational method to compute the MKLE based on binning is implemented in a simulation study which shows that the MKLE at an optimal bandwidth is decidedly superior in terms of efficiency to the sample mean and other measures of location for heavy tailed symmetric distributions. An empirical rule and a computational method to estimate this optimal bandwidth are developed and used to construct bootstrap confidence intervals for the population mean. We show that the intervals have approximately nominal coverage and have significantly smaller average width than the standard t and z intervals. Finally, we develop some mathematical properties for a very close approximation to the MKLE called the kernel mean. In particular, we demonstrate that the kernel mean is indeed unbiased for the population mean for symmetric distributions.