HIV/AIDS epidemic fractional-order model

In this paper a non-linear mathematical model with fractional order ?, 0 < ? ≤ 1 is presented for analyzing and controlling the spread of HIV/AIDS. Both the disease-free equilibrium E₀ and the endemic equilibrium E^* are found and their stability is discussed using the stability theorem of fractional order differential equations. The basic reproduction number R₀ plays an essential role in the stability properties of our system. When R₀ < 1 the disease-free equilibrium E₀ is attractor, but when R₀ > 1, E₀ is unstable and the endemic equilibrium (EE) E^* exists and it is an attractor. Finally numerical Simulations are also established to investigate the influence of the system parameter on the spread of the disease.     

Analysis of a delayed HIV/AIDS epidemic model with saturation incidence

In this paper, a delayed HIV/AIDS epidemic model with saturation incidence is proposed and analyzed. The equilibria and their stability are investigated. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. It is found that if the threshold R ₀<1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if the threshold R ₀>1, the system is permanent and the endemic equilibrium is asymptotically stable under certain conditions.     

Analysis of SE τ IR ω S epidemic disease models with vertical transmission in complex networks

When the role of network topology is taken into consideration, one of the objectives is to understand the possible implications of topological structure on epidemic models. As most real networks can be viewed as complex networks, we propose a new delayed SEτ IRωS epidemic disease model with vertical transmission in complex networks. By using a delayed ODE system, in a small-world (SW) network we prove that, under the condition R0 ≤ 1, the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is globally stable. When R0 > 1, the endemic equilibrium is unique and the disease is uniformly persistent. We further obtain the condition of local stability of endemic equilibrium for R0 > 1. In a scale-free (SF) network we obtain the condition R1 > 1 under which the system will be of non-zero stationary prevalence.     

Global stability of multi-group epidemic models with distributed delays

We investigate a class of multi-group epidemic models with distributed delays. We establish that the global dynamics are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R₀. More specifically, we prove that, if R₀?1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if R₀>1, then there exists a unique endemic equilibrium and it is globally asymptotically stable. Our proof of global stability of the endemic equilibrium utilizes a graph-theoretical approach to the method of Lyapunov functionals.     

Dynamics of a delayed epidemic model with non-monotonic incidence rate

A delayed epidemic model with non-monotonic incidence rate which describes the psychological effect of certain serious on the community when the number of infectives is getting larger is studied. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R₀<1 and is globally attractive when R₀=1 are derived. On the other hand, The disease is permanent when R₀>1 is also obtained. Numerical simulation results are given to support the theoretical predictions.     

On global stability of the intra-host dynamics of malaria and the immune system

In this paper we consider an intra-host model for the dynamics of malaria. The model describes the dynamics of the blood stage malaria parasites and their interaction with host cells, in particular red blood cells (RBC) and immune effectors. We establish the equilibrium points of the system and analyze their stability using the theory of competitive systems, compound matrices and stability of periodic orbits. We established that the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if and only if the basic reproduction number satisfies R₀?1 and the parasite will be cleared out of the host. If R₀>1, a unique endemic equilibrium is globally stable and the parasites persist at the endemic steady state. In the presence of the immune response, the numerical analysis of the model shows that the endemic equilibrium is unstable.     

Global stability of multi-group SEIR epidemic models with distributed delays and nonlinear transmission

The dynamics of multi-group SEIR epidemic models with distributed and infinite delay and nonlinear transmission are investigated. We derive the basic reproduction number R₀ and establish that the global dynamics are completely determined by the values of R₀: if R₀≤1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if R₀>1, then there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable. Our results contain those for single-group SEIR models with distributed and infinite delays. In the proof of global stability of the endemic equilibrium, we exploit a graph-theoretical approach to the method of Lyapunov functionals. The biological significance of the results is also discussed.     

Analysis of a SEIV epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate

In this paper, a SEIV epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. It is shown that if the basic reproduction number _R0<1${\mathfrak{R}}_0<1$, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist. Moreover, we show that if the basic reproduction number _R0>1${\mathfrak{R}}_0>1$, the disease is uniformly persistent and the unique endemic equilibrium of the system with saturation incidence is globally asymptotically stable under certain conditions.     

STABILITY OF AN SEIS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH CONSTANT RECRUITMENT AND A VARYING TOTAL POPULATION SIZE

This paper considers an SEIS epidemic model with infectious force in the latent period and a general population-size dependent contact rate. A threshold parameter R is identified. If R≤1, the disease-free equilibrium O is globally stable. If R〉1, there is a unique endemic equilibrium and O is unstable. For two important special cases of bilinear and standard incidence ,sufficient conditions for the global stability of this endemic equilibrium are given. The same qualitative results are obtained provided the threshold is more than unity for the corresponding SEIS model with no infectious force in the latent period. Some existing results are extended and improved.     

Modelling the effect of tuberculosis on the spread of HIV infection in a population with density-dependent birth and death rate

A nonlinear mathematical model is proposed to study the effect of tuberculosis on the spread of HIV infection in a logistically growing human population. The host population is divided into four sub classes of susceptibles, TB infectives, HIV infectives (with or without TB) and that of AIDS patients. The model exhibits four equilibria namely, a disease free, HIV free, TB free and an endemic equilibrium. The model has been studied qualitatively using stability theory of nonlinear differential equations and computer simulation. We have found a threshold parameter R₀ which is if less than one, the disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable otherwise for R₀>1, at least one of the infections will be present in the population. It is shown that the positive endemic equilibrium is always locally stable but it may become globally stable under certain conditions showing that the disease becomes endemic. It is found that as the number of TB infectives decreases due to recovery, the number of HIV infectives also decreases and endemic equilibrium tends to TB free equilibrium. It is also observed that number of AIDS individuals decreases if TB is not associated with HIV infection. A numerical study of the model is also performed to investigate the influence of certain key parameters on the spread of the disease.     

Global analysis of a vector-host epidemic model with nonlinear incidences

In this paper, an epidemic model with nonlinear incidences is proposed to describe the dynamics of diseases spread by vectors (mosquitoes), such as malaria, yellow fever, dengue and so on. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The stability of the system is analyzed for the disease-free and endemic equilibria. The stability of the system can be controlled by the threshold number R₀. It is shown that if R₀ is less than one, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R₀ is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Our results imply that the threshold condition of the system provides important guidelines for accessing control of the vector diseases, and the spread of vector epidemic in an efficient way can be prevented. The contribution of the nonlinear saturating incidence to the basic reproduction number and the level of the endemic equilibrium are also analyzed, respectively.     

Hopf bifurcation in epidemic models with a latent period and nonpermanent immunity

In this paper, some SEIRS epidemiological models with vaccination and temporary immunity are considered. First of all, previously published work is reviewed. In the next section, a general model with a constant contact rate and a density-dependent death rate is examined. The model is reformulated in terms of the proportions of susceptible, incubating, infectious, and immune individuals. Next the equilibrium and stability properties of this model are examined, assuming that the average duration of immunity exceeds the infectious period. There is a threshold parameter R_o and the disease can persist if and only if R_o exceeds one. The disease-free equilibrium always exists and is locally stable if R_o < 1 and unstable if R_o > 1. Conditions are derived for the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium. For R_o > 1, the endemic equilibrium is unique and locally asymptotically stable.For the full model dealing with numbers of individuals, there are two critical contact rates. These give conditions for the disease, respectively, to drive a population which would otherwise persist at a finite level or explode to extinction and to cause a population that would otherwise explode to be regulated at a finite level. If the contact rate β(N) is a monotone increasing function of the population size, then we find that there are now three threshold parameters which determine whether or not the disease can persist proportionally. Moreover, the endemic equilibrium need no longer be locally asymptotically stable. Instead stable limit cycles can arise by supercritical Hopf bifurcation from the endemic equilibrium as this equilibrium loses its stability. This is confirmed numerically.     

Global stability of a virus dynamics model with intracellular delay and CTL immune response

In this paper, the global stability of a virus dynamics model with intracellular delay, Crowley–Martin functional response of the infection rate, and CTL immune response is studied. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functions and using LaSalles invariance principle, the global dynamics is established; it is proved that if the basic reproductive number, R₀, is less than or equal to one, the infection‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; if R₀ is more than one, and if immune response reproductive number, R⁰, is less than one, the immune‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if R⁰ is more than one, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An epidemic model of a vector-borne disease with direct transmission and time delay

This paper considers an epidemic model of a vector-borne disease which has direct mode of transmission in addition to the vector-mediated transmission. The incidence term is assumed to be of the bilinear mass-action form. We include both a baseline ODE version of the model, and, a differential-delay model with a discrete time delay. The ODE model shows that the dynamics is completely determined by the basic reproduction number R₀. If R₀?1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable and the disease dies out. If R₀>1, a unique endemic equilibrium exists and is locally asymptotically stable in the interior of the feasible region. The delay in the differential-delay model accounts for the incubation time the vectors need to become infectious. We study the effect of that delay on the stability of the equilibria. We show that the introduction of a time delay in the host-to-vector transmission term can destabilize the system and periodic solutions can arise through Hopf bifurcation.     

Dynamical behavior of computer virus on Internet

In this paper, we presented a computer virus model using an SIRS model and the threshold value R₀ determining whether the disease dies out is obtained. If R₀ is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. By using the time delay as a bifurcation parameter, the local stability and Hopf bifurcation for the endemic state is investigated. Numerical results demonstrate that the system has periodic solution when time delay is larger than a critical values. The obtained results may provide some new insight to prevent the computer virus.     

Analysis of an SVEIS epidemic model with partial temporary immunity and saturation incidence rate

In this paper, an SVEIS epidemic model for an infectious disease that spreads in the host population through horizontal transmission is investigated. The role that temporary immunity (natural, disease induced, vaccination induced) plays in the spread of disease, is incorporated in the model. The total host population is bounded and the incidence term is of the Holling-type II form. It is shown that the model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The global dynamics are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R₀. If R₀<1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable which leads to the eradication of disease from population. If R₀>1, a unique endemic equilibrium exists and is globally stable in the feasible region under certain conditions. Further, the transcritical bifurcation at R₀=1 is explored by projecting the flow onto the extended center manifold. We use the geometric approach for ordinary differential equations which is based on the use of higher-order generalization of Bendixson’s criterion. Further, we obtain the threshold vaccination coverage required to eradicate the disease. Finally, taking biologically relevant parametric values, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate and verify the analytical results.     

Global dynamics of a pine wilt disease transmission model with nonlinear incidence rates

In this study, we investigate a pine wilt transmission model with nonlinear incidence rates. The stability of the system is analyzed for disease-free and endemic equilibria. It is proved that the global dynamics are completely by the basic reproduction number _R0$R_0$. If _R0$R_0$ is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and in such a case, the endemic equilibrium does not exist. If _R0$R_0$ is greater than one, the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.     

Global dynamics of an SEI model with acute and chronic stages

A model with acute and chronic stages in a population with exponentially varying size is proposed. An equivalent system is obtained, which has two equilibriums: a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibriums is controlled by the basic reproduction number _R0$R_0$. When _R0<1$R_0<1$, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable. When _R0>1$R_0>1$, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the unique endemic equilibrium is locally stable. When _R0>1$R_0>1$ and γ=0,α=0$\gamma =0,\alpha =0$, the endemic equilibrium is globally stable in Γ⁰${\Gamma }^0$.     

Global analysis of an SIS model with an infective vector on complex networks

In this paper, a modified SIS model with an infective vector on complex networks is proposed and analyzed, which incorporates some infectious diseases that are not only transmitted by a vector, but also spread by direct contacts between human beings. We treat direct human contacts as a social network and assume spatially homogeneous mixing between vector and human populations. By mathematical analysis, we obtain the basic reproduction number R₀ and study the effects of various immunization schemes. For the network model, we prove that if R₀<1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, otherwise there exists an unique endemic equilibrium such that it is globally attractive. Our theoretical results are confirmed by numerical simulations and suggest a promising way for the control of infectious diseases.