An interval-parameter fuzzy two-stage stochastic program for water resources management under uncertainty

This study presents an interval-parameter fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming (IFTSP) method for the planning of water-resources-management systems under uncertainty. The model is derived by incorporating the concepts of interval-parameter and fuzzy programming techniques within a two-stage stochastic optimization framework. The approach has two major advantages in comparison to other optimization techniques. Firstly, the IFTSP method can incorporate pre-defined water policies directly into its optimization process and, secondly, it can readily integrate inherent system uncertainties expressed not only as possibility and probability distributions but also as discrete intervals directly into its solution procedure. The IFTSP process is applied to an earlier case study of regional water resources management and it is demonstrated how the method efficiently produces stable solutions together with different risk levels of violating pre-established allocation criteria. In addition, a variety of decision alternatives are generated under different combinations of water shortage.     

Study and modelling of two apple quality attributes: the soluble solids content and the firmness

Recently, the basic dynamics of fruit characteristics have been modelled using a stochastic approach. The time evolution of apple quality attributes was represented by means of a system of differential equations in which the initial conditions and model parameters are both random. In this work, a complete study of two apple quality attributes, the soluble solids content and the firmness, is carried out. For each of these characteristics, the system of differential equations is linear and the state variables and the parameters are represented as random variables with their statistical properties (mean values, variances, covariances, joint probability density function) known at the initial time. The dynamic behaviour of these statistical properties is analysed. The variance propagation algorithm is used to obtain an analytical expression of the dynamic behaviour of the mean value, the variance, the covariance and the probability density function. A Monte Carlo method and the Latin hypercube method were developed to obtain a numerical expression of the dynamic behaviour of these statistical quantities and particularly to follow the time evolution of joint probability density function which represents one but the best mean to characterize random phenomena linked with fruit quality attributes.     

On the parametric uncertainty quantification of the Rothermel's rate of spread model

Parametric uncertainty quantification of the Rothermel's fire spread model is presented using the Polynomial Chaos expansion method under a Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (NISP) approach. Several Rothermel's model input parameters have been considered random with an associated prescribed probability density function. Two different vegetation fire scenarios are considered and NISP method results and performance are compared with four other stochastic methodologies: Sensitivity Derivative Enhance Sampling; two Monte Carlo techniques; and Global Sensitivity Analysis. The stochastic analysis includes a sensitivity analysis study to quantify the direct influence of each random parameter on the solution. The NISP approach achieved performance three orders of magnitude faster than the traditional Monte Carlo method. The NISP capability to perform uncertainty quantification associated with fast convergence makes it well suited to be applied for stochastic prediction of fire spread.     

Delay-dependent robust exponential state estimation of Markovian jumping fuzzy Hopfield neural networks with mixed random time-varying delays

This paper investigates delay-dependent robust exponential state estimation of Markovian jumping fuzzy neural networks with mixed random time-varying delay. In this paper, the Takagi–Sugeno (T–S) fuzzy model representation is extended to the robust exponential state estimation of Markovian jumping Hopfield neural networks with mixed random time-varying delays. Moreover probabilistic delay satisfies a certain probability-distribution. By introducing a stochastic variable with a Bernoulli distribution, the neural networks with random time delays is transformed into one with deterministic delays and stochastic parameters. The main purpose is to estimate the neuron states, through available output measurements such that for all admissible time delays, the dynamics of the estimation error is globally exponentially stable in the mean square. Based on the Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional and stochastic analysis approach, several delay-dependent robust state estimators for such T–S fuzzy Markovian jumping Hopfield neural networks can be achieved by solving a linear matrix inequality (LMI), which can be easily facilitated by using some standard numerical packages. The unknown gain matrix is determined by solving a delay-dependent LMI. Finally some numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Feedback control optimization of nonlinear systems under random excitations

This paper uses stochastic averaging method to design an optimal feedback control for nonlinear stochastic systems. The method of stochastic averaging is used to reduce the dimension of the state space and to derive the Itô stochastic differential equation for the response amplitude process. Two approaches to optimization, namely, with the exact steady state probability density function of the amplitude process and the Rayleigh approximation are compared. The cost function is a steady state response measure. Numerical examples are studied to demonstrate the performance of the control both in transient and steady-state. The effect of the control on the system response and control performance is studied. The regions where the controls are conservative and unconservative are pointed out.     

Predicting stochastic characteristics of generalized eigenvalues via a novel sensitivity-based probability density evolution method

This paper proposes a novel numerical method for predicting the probability density function of generalized eigenvalues in the mechanical vibration system with consideration of uncertainties in structural parameters. The eigenproblem of structural vibration is presented by first and the sensitivity of generalized eigenvalues with respect to structural parameters can be derived. The probability density evolution method is then developed to capture the probability density function of generalized eigenvalues considering uncertain material properties. Within the proposed method, the probability density evolution equation for the generalized eigenvalue problem is established accounting for the sensitivity of generalized eigenvalues with respect to structural parameters. A new variable which connects generalized eigenvalues to structural parameters is then introduced to simplify the original probability density evolution equation. Next, the simplified probability density evolution equation is solved by using the finite difference method with total variation diminishing schemes. Finally, the probability density function as well as the second-order statistical quantities of generalized eigenvalues can be predicted. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed method yields results consistent with Monte-Carlo simulation method within significantly less computation time and the coefficients of variation of uncertain parameters as well as the total number of them have remarkable effects on stochastic characteristics of generalized eigenvalues.     

Enhanced consistency of the Resampled Convolution Particle Filter

Among the convolution particle filters for discrete-time dynamic systems defined by nonlinear state space models, the Resampled Convolution Filter is one of the most efficient, in terms of estimation of the conditional probability density functions (pdf’s) of the state variables and unknown parameters and in terms of implementation. This nonparametric filter is known for its almost sure L₁-convergence property. But contrarily to the other convolution filters, its almost sure punctual convergence had not yet been established. This paper is devoted to the proof of this property.     

A Continuous Review of (<Emphasis Type="Italic">S — s</Emphasis>) Inventory Systems in which Depletion is Due to Demand and Failure of Units

A stochastic model for an inventory system in which depletion of stock takes place due to random demand as well as random failure of items is studied under the assumption that the intervals between successive unit demands, as well as those between successive unit failures, are independently and identically distributed random variables having negative exponential distribution with different parameters. The transient and steady state probability distributions of the stock level are derived and the optimum decision rules in the long run given.     

模糊集理论在随机波动率期权定价中的应用

目的是对基于随机波动率模型的期权定价问题应用模糊集理论.主要思想是把波动率的概率表示转换为可能性表示,从而把关于股票价格的带随机波动率的随机过程简化为带模糊参数的随机过程.然后建立非线性偏微分方程对欧式期权进行定价.     

噪声激励下水平扫视眼动系统的随机分岔

研究了眼动系统在神经噪声作用下的随机分岔现象.首先,基于水平眼动系统模型,用加性的Gauss(高斯)白噪声模拟神经系统中的噪声,建立眼动系统的随机动力学模型.其次,利用数值算法得到眼球运动位移的Poincaré分岔图和系统在不同参数下的位移和速度的稳态联合概率密度以及位移的稳态概率密度.研究发现:噪声强度和抑制性神经元的作用强度都能诱导产生随机P分岔现象,使得位移的稳态概率密度出现峰的个数从1到3的转换,间歇性眼球震颤产生.此外,还发现当抑制性神经元的作用强度增大到一定值时,稳态概率密度始终呈现单峰结构.该结论对此类疾病的治疗有一定的指导作用.     

Chance-constrained programming with fuzzy stochastic coefficients

We consider fuzzy stochastic programming problems with a crisp objective function and linear constraints whose coefficients are fuzzy random variables, in particular of type L-R. To solve this type of problems, we formulate deterministic counterparts of chance-constrained programming with fuzzy stochastic coefficients, by combining constraints on probability of satisfying constraints, as well as their possibility and necessity. We discuss the possible indices for comparing fuzzy quantities by putting together interval orders and statistical preference. We study the convexity of the set of feasible solutions under various assumptions. We also consider the case where fuzzy intervals are viewed as consonant random intervals. The particular cases of type L-R fuzzy Gaussian and discrete random variables are detailed.     

Nonlinear continuous-discrete filtering using kernel density estimatesand functional integrals

We develop filter algorithms for nonlinear stochastic differential equations with discrete time measurements (continuous-discrete state space model). The apriori density (time update) is computed by Monte Carlo simulations of the Fokker-Planck equation using kernel density estimators and measurement updates are obtained by using the extended Kalman filter (EKF) updates. For small sampling intervals, a discretized continuous sampling approach (DCS) is used. A third algorithm utilizes a functional (path) integral representation of the transition density (functional integral filter FIF). The kernel density filter (KDF), DCS, and FIF are compared with the EKF and the Gaussian sum filter by using a Ginzburg-Landau-equation and a stochastic volatility model.     

Robust Adaptive Identification of Fuzzy Systems with Uncertain Data

This study presents a method of adaptive identification of parameters describing Sugeno fuzzy inference system in presence of bounded disturbances while maintaining the readability and interpretability of the fuzzy model during and after identification. This method do not require any a priori knowledge of a bound on the disturbance and noise and of a bound on the unknown parameters values. The method can be used for the robust and adaptive identification of slowly time varying nonlinear systems using fuzzy inference systems. The suggested method was used to build a fuzzy expert system that approximates the functional relationship between physical fitness and some of the measurable physiological parameters by their real measurements and opinion (human-experiences) of a medical expert.     

Particle Filters with Nudging in Multiscale Chaotic Systems: With Application to the Lorenz ’96 Atmospheric Model

This paper presents reduced-order nonlinear filtering schemes based on a theoretical framework that combines stochastic dimensional reduction and nonlinear filtering. Here, dimensional reduction is achieved for estimating the slow-scale process in a multiscale environment by constructing a filter using stochastic averaging results. The nonlinear filter is approximated numerically using the ensemble Kalman filter and particle filter. The particle filter is further adapted to the complexities of inherently chaotic signals. In particle filters, an ensemble of particles is used to represent the distribution of the state of the hidden signal. The ensemble is updated using observation data to obtain the best representation of the conditional density of the true state variables given observations. Particle methods suffer from the “curse of dimensionality,” an issue of particle degeneracy within a sample, which increases exponentially with system dimension. Hence, particle filtering in high dimensions can benefit from some form of dimensional reduction. A control is superimposed on particle dynamics to drive particles to locations most representative of observations, in other words, to construct a better prior density. The control is determined by solving a classical stochastic optimization problem and implemented in the particle filter using importance sampling techniques.

     

一类大系统模糊随机多目标决策的建模与求解方法

本文提出和建立了一类大系统模糊随机多目标决策（ＦＳＭＯＤＭ）模型，讨论了模糊事件的模糊概率的若干基本性质．在此基础上，将ＦＳＭＯＤＭ模型转化为清晰的多目标决策模型，并给出了递阶分解协调求解方法．把该模型应用到大连市水资源与经济发展规划研究中取得了令人满意的结果．     

Modelling algal densities in harmful algal blooms (HAB) with stochastic dynamics

In this paper, we consider the growth of densities of two kinds of typical HAB algae: diatom and dianoflagellate on some coasts of China’s mainland. Since there exist many random factors that cause the change of the algae densities, we shall develop a new nonlinear dynamical model with stochastic excitations on the algae densities. Applying a stochastic averaging method on the model, we obtain a two-dimensional diffusion process of averaged amplitude and phase. Then we investigate the stability and the Hopf bifurcation of the stochastic system with FPK (Fokker Planck–Kolmogorov) theory and obtain the stationary transition probability density of the process. We obtain the critical values of parameters for the occurrences of Hopf bifurcation in terms of probability. We also investigate numerically the effects of various parameters on the stationary transition probability density of the occurrences of Hopf bifurcation. The numerical results are in good correlation with the analysis. We draw the conclusion that if the Hopf bifurcation occurs with a radius large enough, i.e., if the densities of the HAB algae reach a high value, the HAB will take place with comparatively high probability.     

Deterministic and stochastic stability of a mathematical model of smoking

Our aim in this paper, is first constructing a Lyapunov function to prove the global stability of the unique smoking-present equilibrium state of a mathematical model of smoking. Next we incorporate random noise into the deterministic model. We show that the stochastic model established in this paper possesses non-negative solutions as this is essential in any population dynamics model. Then a stochastic Lyapunov method is performed to obtain the sufficient conditions for mean square and asymptotic stability in probability of the stochastic model. Our analysis reveals that the stochastic stability of the smoking-present equilibrium state, depends on the magnitude of the intensities of noise as well as the parameters involved within the model system.     

Triply fuzzy function approximation for hierarchical Bayesian inference

We prove that three independent fuzzy systems can uniformly approximate Bayesian posterior probability density functions by approximating the prior and likelihood probability densities as well as the hyperprior probability densities that underly the priors. This triply fuzzy function approximation extends the recent theorem for uniformly approximating the posterior density by approximating just the prior and likelihood densities. This approximation allows users to state priors and hyper-priors in words or rules as well as to adapt them from sample data. A fuzzy system with just two rules can exactly represent common closed-form probability densities so long as they are bounded. The function approximators can also be neural networks or any other type of uniform function approximator. Iterative fuzzy Bayesian inference can lead to rule explosion. We prove that conjugacy in the if-part set functions for prior, hyperprior, and likelihood fuzzy approximators reduces rule explosion. We also prove that a type of semi-conjugacy of if-part set functions for those fuzzy approximators results in fewer parameters in the fuzzy posterior approximator.     

A new data envelopment analysis model with fuzzy random inputs and outputs

This paper first presents several formulas for mean chance distributions of triangular fuzzy random variables and their functions, then develops a new class of fuzzy random data envelopment analysis (FRDEA) models with mean chance constraints, in which the inputs and outputs are assumed to be characterized by fuzzy random variables with known possibility and probability distributions. According to the established formulas for the mean chance distributions, we can turn the mean chance constraints into their equivalent stochastic ones. On the other hand, since the objective in the FRDEA model is the expectation about the ratio of the weighted sum of outputs and the weighted sum of inputs for a target decision-making unite (DMU), for general fuzzy random inputs and outputs, we suggest an approximation method to evaluate the objective; and for triangular fuzzy random inputs and outputs, we propose a method to reduce the objective to its equivalent stochastic one. As a consequence, under the assumption that the inputs and the outputs are triangular fuzzy random vectors, the proposed FRDEA model can be reduced to its equivalent stochastic programming one, in which the constraints contain the standard normal distribution function, and the objective is the expectation for a function of the normal random variable. To solve the equivalent stochastic programming model, we design a hybrid algorithm by integrating stochastic simulation and genetic algorithm (GA). Finally, one numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed FRDEA modeling idea and the effectiveness of the designed hybrid algorithm.     

Doubling-Time Probability Densities For Growth Processes

The doubling-time probability density of a growth process is the probability density for the time it takes for the size to double. Doubling-time probability densities are useful in studying growth rates, for example, of organisms, populations, financial products, or chemical reactions. Three fundamental stochastic models of growth are investigated for their doubling-time probability densities. It is shown that two of the stochastic models have doubling-time probability densities which are inverse Gaussian. Although the third stochastic model’s doubling-time density does not have a simple analytical form, it is shown to be approximately inverse Gaussian under a reasonable hypothesis on the model’s parameters. Two data sets for doubling time, spruce seedling size and Texas Mega Millions Lottery jackpot, are fit to inverse Gaussian distributions.