Multicriteria decision making under uncertainty

Formalization for problems of multicriteria decision making under uncertainty is constructed in terms of guaranteed and weak estimates. A relevant definition of the vector maximinimax value is given. Parameterization and approximation of maximum, minimax, and maximinimax values based on the inverse logical convolution are suggested. An application for multicommodity networks is considered. Received: December 13, 2000 / Accepted: August 21, 2001?Published online May 8, 2002     

Ordering fuzzy sets over the real line: An approach based on decision making under uncertainty

The ordering of fuzzy sets over the real line is approached from the point of view of ordering intervals rather than ordering numbers. First, the maximax and maximin criteria which are commonly used for ordering intervals are expressed in terms of characteristic functions. These criteria and the Hurwicz criterion for decision making under complete ignorance are then reformulated in a manner that allows for their generalization to the fuzzy case. Transitivity is established for these ordering rules. A criterion based on the principle of diminishing marginal utility is also presented.     

Fuzzy set based models and methods of multicriteria group decision making

In the paper, the term consensus scheme is utilized to denote a dynamic and iterative process where the experts involved discuss a multicriteria decision problem. This discussion process is conducted by a human or artificial moderator, with the purpose of minimizing the discrepancy between the individual opinions.During the process of decision making, each expert involved must provide preference information. The information format and the circumstances where it must be given play a critical role in the decision process. This paper analyses a generic consensus scheme, which considers many different preference input formats, several possible interventions of the moderator, as well as admitting several stop conditions for interrupting the discussion process. In addition, a new consensus scheme is proposed with the intention of eliminating some difficulties met when the traditional consensus schemes are utilized in real applications. It preserves the experts’ integrity through the intervention of an external person, to supervise and mediate the conflicting situations. The human moderator is supposed to interfere in the discussion process by adjusting some parameters of the mathematical model or by inviting an expert to update his opinion. The usefulness of this consensus scheme is demonstrated by its use to solve a multicriteria group decision problem, generated applying the Balanced Scorecard methodology for enterprise strategy planning. In the illustrating problem, the experts are allowed to give their preferences in different input formats. But the information provided is made uniform on the basis of fuzzy preference relations through the use of adequate transformation functions, before being analyzed. The advantage of using fuzzy set theory for solving multiperson multicriteria decision problems lies in the fact that it can provide the flexibility needed to adequately deal with the uncertain factors intrinsic to such problems.     

Theory of convex cones in multicriteria decision making

We develop the theory of convex polyhedral cones in the objective-function space of a multicriteria decision problem. The convex cones are obtained from the decision-maker's pairwise judgments of decision alternatives and are applicable to any quasiconcave utility function. Therefore, the cones can be used in any progressively articulated solution procedure that employs pairwise comparisons. The cones represent convex sets of solutions that are inferior to known solutions to a multicriteria problem. Therefore, these convex sets can be eliminated from consideration while solving the problem. We develop the underlying theory and a framework for representing knowledge about the decision-maker's preference structure using convex cones. This framework can be adopted in the interactive solution of any multicriteria problem after taking into account the characteristics of the problem and the solution procedure. Our computational experience with different multicriteria problems shows that this approach is both viable and efficient in solving practical problems of moderate size.     

Revising the OWA operator for multi criteria decision making problems under uncertainty

Multi criteria decision making (MCDM) problems are usually under uncertainty. One of these uncertain parameters is the decision maker (DM)’s degree of optimism, which has an important effect on the results. Fuzzy linguistic quantifiers are used to obtain the assessments of this parameter from DM and then, because of its uncertainty it is assumed to have stochastic nature. A new approach, entitled FSROWA, is introduced to combine the Fuzzy and Stochastic features into a Revised OWA operator.     

Discrete optimization algorithms and problems of decision making in a fuzzy environment

An approach to solving optimization problems with fuzzy coefficients is described. It consists in formulating and analyzing one and the same problem within the framework of mutually related models by constructing equivalent analogs with fuzzy coefficients in objective functions alone. Since the approach is applied within the context of fuzzy discrete optimization problems, modified algorithms of discrete optimization are discussed. These algorithms are based on a combination of formal and heuristic procedures and allow one to obtain quasi-optimal solutions after a small number of steps, thus overcoming the computational complexity posed by the NP-completeness of discrete optimization problems. The subsequent contraction of the decision uncertainty regions is associated with reduction of the problem to multiobjective decision making in a fuzzy environment using techniques based on fuzzy preference relations. The results of the paper are of a universal character and are already being used to solve practical problems in several fields.     

Multicriteria decision support using rules that represent rough-graded preference relations

The approach described in this paper aims to support multicriteria choice and ranking of actions when the input preference information acquired from the decision maker is a graded comprehensive pairwise comparison (or ranking) of reference actions. It is based on decision-rule preference model induced from a rough approximation of the graded comprehensive preference relation among the reference actions. The set of decision rules applied to a new set of actions provides a graded fuzzy preference relation, which can be exploited by weighted-fuzzy net flow score or lexicographic-fuzzy net flow score procedure to obtain a final recommendation in terms of the best choice or of the ranking.     

Decision making in multiobjective optimization aided by the multicriteria tournament decision method

This paper proposes a new method for multicriteria analysis, named Multicriteria Tournament Decision (MTD). It provides the ranking of alternatives from best to worst, according to the preferences of a human decision-maker (DM). It has some positive aspects such as: it has a simple algorithm with intuitive appeal; it involves few input parameters (just the importance weight of each criterion).The helpfulness of MTD is demonstrated by using it to select the final solution of multiobjective optimization problems in an a posteriori decision making approach. Having at hand a discrete approximation of the Pareto front (provided by a multiobjective evolutionary search algorithm), the choice of the preferred Pareto-optimal solution is performed using MTD.A simple method, named Gain Analysis method (GAM), for verifying the existence of a better solution (a solution associated to higher marginal rates of return) than the one originally chosen by the DM, is also introduced here. The usefulness of MTD and GAM methods is confirmed by the suitable results shown in this paper.     

An intelligent-agent-based fuzzy group decision making model for financial multicriteria decision support: The case of credit scoring

Credit risk analysis is an active research area in financial risk management and credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation. In this study, a novel intelligent-agent-based fuzzy group decision making (GDM) model is proposed as an effective multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) tool for credit risk evaluation. In this proposed model, some artificial intelligent techniques, which are used as intelligent agents, are first used to analyze and evaluate the risk levels of credit applicants over a set of pre-defined criteria. Then these evaluation results, generated by different intelligent agents, are fuzzified into some fuzzy opinions on credit risk level of applicants. Finally, these fuzzification opinions are aggregated into a group consensus and meantime the fuzzy aggregated consensus is defuzzified into a crisp aggregated value to support final decision for decision-makers of credit-granting institutions. For illustration and verification purposes, a simple numerical example and three real-world credit application approval datasets are presented.     

Fuzzy preference orderings in group decision making

In this paper, some use of fuzzy preference orderings in group decision making is discussed. First, fuzzy preference orderings are defined as fuzzy binary relations satisfying reciprocity and max-min transitivity. Then, particularly in the case where individual preferences are represented by utility functions (utility values), group fuzzy preference orderings of which fuzziness is caused by differences or diversity of individual opinions are defined. Those orderings might be useful for proceeding the group decision making process smoothly, in the same manner as the extended contributive rule method.     

A new method for ranking fuzzy numbers and its application to group decision making

In this paper, a new method for comparing fuzzy numbers based on a fuzzy probabilistic preference relation is introduced. The ranking order of fuzzy numbers with the weighted confidence level is derived from the pairwise comparison matrix based on 0.5-transitivity of the fuzzy probabilistic preference relation. The main difference between the proposed method and existing ones is that the comparison result between two fuzzy numbers is expressed as a fuzzy set instead of a crisp one. As such, the ranking order of n fuzzy numbers provides more information on the uncertainty level of the comparison. Illustrated by comparative examples, the proposed method overcomes certain unreasonable (due to the violation of the inequality properties) and indiscriminative problems exhibited by some existing methods. More importantly, the proposed method is able to provide decision makers with the probability of making errors when a crisp ranking order is obtained. The proposed method is also able to provide a probability-based explanation for conflicts among the comparison results provided by some existing methods using a proper ranking order, which ensures that ties of alternatives can be broken.     

Extension of VIKOR method for multi-criteria group decision making problem with linguistic information

A new method is proposed to solve multi-criteria group decision making problems in which both the criteria values and criteria weights take the form of linguistic information based on the traditional idea of VIKOR method. Firstly, the linguistic criteria weights given by all decision makers are transformed into trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, and then aggregated and defuzzified to crisp values. Secondly, the individual linguistic decision matrix given by each decision maker (DM) is transformed into 2-tuple linguistic decision matrix, and then aggregated into collective 2-tuple linguistic decision matrix by 2-tuple linguistic arithmetic mean operation. Thirdly, the 2-tuple linguistic values (_Si,_αi),$(S_i\text{,}{\alpha }_i)\text{,}$(_Ri,_αi)$(R_i\text{,}{\alpha }_i)$ and (_Qi,_αi)$(Q_i\text{,}{\alpha }_i)$ are calculated by defining the 2-tuple linguistic positive ideal solution (TL-PIS) and 2-tuple linguistic negative ideal solution (TL-NIS). Furthermore, the compromise solution can be obtained. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the application of the proposed approach, and the method is verified by comparing the evaluation result with that of 2-tuple linguistic TOPSIS (TL-TOPSIS) method.     

Aggregation of fuzzy preference relations to multicriteria decision making

Weighted aggregation of fuzzy preference relations on the set of alternatives by several criteria in decision-making problems is considered. Pairwise comparisons with respect to importance of the criteria are given in fuzzy preference relation as well. The aggregation procedure uses the composition between each two relations of the alternatives. The membership function of the newly constructed fuzzy preference relation includes t-norms and t-conorms to take into account the relation between the criteria importance. Properties of the composition and new relation, giving a possibility to make a consistent choice or to rank the alternatives, are proved. An illustrative numerical study and comparative examples are presented.     

Developments in fuzzy multicriteria analysis

Selecting or ranking available alternatives (observations/objects) with respect to multiple, often conflicting criteria in a fuzzy environment usually referred to as fuzzy multicriteria analysis is a problem of a major interest in information and engineering. Methodologies for addressing this problem have been developed from a variety of research disciplines, including statistics, econometrics, artificial intelligent, and operations research. This paper presents an overview of the developments in fuzzy multicriteria analysis. It discusses the complexity of fuzzy multicriteria analysis and analyses the existing approaches from four different perspectives for facilitating a better understanding of the recent development in this domain. Finally, the paper elaborates on the future research areas in fuzzy multicriteria analysis.     

A fuzzy-stochastic OWA model for robust multi-criteria decision making

All realistic Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems face various kinds of uncertainty. Since the evaluations of alternatives with respect to the criteria are uncertain they will be assumed to have stochastic nature. To obtain the uncertain optimism degree of the decision maker fuzzy linguistic quantifiers will be used. Then a new approach for fuzzy-stochastic modeling of MCDM problems will be introduced by merging the stochastic and fuzzy approaches into the OWA operator. The results of the new approach, entitled FSOWA, give the expected value and the variance of the combined goodness measure for each alternative. Robust decision depends on the combined goodness measures of alternatives and also on the variations of these measures under uncertainty. In order to combine these two characteristics a composite goodness measure will be defined. The theoretical results will be illustrated in a watershed management problem. By using this measure will give more sensitive decisions to the stakeholders whose optimism degrees are different than that of the decision maker. FSOWA can be used for robust decision making on the competitive alternatives under uncertainty.     

A dual-interval vertex analysis method and its application to environmental decision making under uncertainty

In this study, a dual-interval vertex analysis (DIVA) method is developed, through incorporating the vertex method within an interval-parameter programming framework. The developed DIVA method can tackle uncertainties presented as dual intervals that exist in the objective function and the left- and right-hand sides of the modeling constraints. An interactive algorithm and a vertex analysis approach are proposed for solving the DIVA model. Solutions under an associated α-cut level can be generated by solving a series of deterministic submodels. They can help quantify relationships between the objective function value and the membership grade, which is meaningful for supporting in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between environmental and economic objectives as well as those between system optimality and reliability. A management problem in terms of regional air pollution control is studied to illustrate applicability of the proposed approach. The results indicate that useful solutions for planning the air quality management practices have been generated. They can help decision makers to identify desired pollution-abatement strategies with minimized costs and maximized environmental efficiencies.     

Hesitant fuzzy information aggregation in decision making

As a generalization of fuzzy set, hesitant fuzzy set is a very useful tool in situations where there are some difficulties in determining the membership of an element to a set caused by a doubt between a few different values. The aim of this paper is to develop a series of aggregation operators for hesitant fuzzy information. We first discuss the relationship between intutionistic fuzzy set and hesitant fuzzy set, based on which we develop some operations and aggregation operators for hesitant fuzzy elements. The correlations among the aggregation operators are further discussed. Finally, we give their application in solving decision making problems.     

Decision making in a fuzzy environment and its application to multicriteria power engineering problems

This paper presents results of research into the use of the Bellman–Zadeh approach to decision making in a fuzzy environment for solving multicriteria optimization problems. Its application conforms to the principle of guaranteed result and provides constructive lines in obtaining harmonious solutions on the basis of analyzing associated maxmin problems. The use of the Bellman–Zadeh approach has served as a basis for solving a problem of multicriteria allocation of resources (or their shortages) and developing a corresponding adaptive interactive decision making system (AIDMS1). AIDMS1 includes procedures for considering linguistic variables to reflect conditions that are difficult to formalize as well as procedures for constructing and correcting vectors of importance factors for goals. The use of these procedures permits one to realize an adaptive approach to processing information of a decision maker to provide successive improvment in solution quality. The results of the paper are universally applicable and are already being used to solve power engineering problems. It is illustrated by considering problems of multicriteria power and energy shortage allocation and multicriteria power system operation.     

A method based on PSO and granular computing of linguistic information to solve group decision making problems defined in heterogeneous contexts

Group decision making is a type of decision problem in which multiple experts acting collectively, analyze problems, evaluate alternatives, and select a solution from a collection of alternatives. As the natural language is the standard representation of those concepts that humans use for communication, it seems natural that they use words (linguistic terms) instead of numerical values to provide their opinions. However, while linguistic information is readily available, it is not operational and thus it has to be made usable though expressing it in terms of information granules. To do so, Granular Computing, which has emerged as a unified and coherent framework of designing, processing, and interpretation of information granules, can be used. The aim of this paper is to present an information granulation of the linguistic information used in group decision making problems defined in heterogeneous contexts, i.e., where the experts have associated importance degrees reflecting their ability to handle the problem. The granulation of the linguistic terms is formulated as an optimization problem, solved by using the particle swarm optimization, in which a performance index is maximized by a suitable mapping of the linguistic terms on information granules formalized as sets. This performance index is expressed as a weighted aggregation of the individual consistency achieved by each expert.