Ⅰ型区间删失情形下部分线性模型Sieve极大似然估计渐近性质

本文在响应变量的观测值为Ⅰ型区间删失数据的情形下,讨论部分线性模型Ｓｉｅｖｅ极大似然估计的渐近性质．在一定条件下证明了该估计具有强相合性;参数分量的估计具有渐近正态性,并且是渐近有效的;非参数分量估计达到了最优弱收敛速度．     

Maximum likelihood estimation for general hidden semi-Markov processes with backward recurrence time dependence

This paper concerns the study of asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the general hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) with backward recurrence time dependence. By transforming the general HSMM into a general hidden Markov model, we prove that under some regularity conditions, the MLE is strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. We also provide useful expressions for asymptotic covariance matrices, involving the MLE of the conditional sojourn times and the embedded Markov chain of the hidden semi-Markov chain. Bibliography: 17 titles.     

排序集抽样下指数分布的产品可靠度研究

为了提高指数分布产品可靠度的估计效率,研究了基于排序集抽样方法的极大似然估计量(Maximum likelihood estimator,MLE),证明了新MLE具有存在性、唯一性和渐近正态性,并通过排序集样本的Fisher信息得到MLE的渐近方差。针对似然方程没有显式解的问题,利用部分期望法对MLE进行修正,并给出其具体表达式。渐近相对效率和模拟相对效率的研究结果表明:排序集抽样下MLE和修正MLE的估计效率都一致高于简单随机抽样下MLE。最后,将推荐方法应用到转移性肾癌的临床研究中。     

指数族非线性模型最大似然估计的相合性和渐近正态性

本文我们提出了一些正则条件, 这些条件减弱了Zhu and Wei (1997)文中的条件. 基于所提的正则条件, 我们证明了指数族非线性模型参数最大似然估计的相合性和渐近正态性. 我们的结果可被认为是Zhu and Wei (1997)工作的进一步改进.     

On the robust estimation in poisson processes with periodic intensities

Under some regularity conditions, it is well known that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is asymptotically normal and efficient. However, if the observation is contaminated, the MLE is not always an appropriate estimator. In this paper, we treat M-estimators and study their asymptotic behavior. By choosing estimation equations, robust M-estimators are presented for phase parameters.     

非线性再生散度随机效应模型的渐近性质

对非线性再生散度随机效应模型, 该文给出了类似于Barndroff-Nielson, Cox (1989)和Severin, Wong (1992)的正则条件, 基于这些正则条件和Laplace近似, 证明了该模型参数极大似然估计的存在性、强相合性和渐近正态性.     

关于MLE在渐近中位无偏意义下的渐近有效性

本文讨论正则条件下极大似然估计在渐近中位无偏意义下的渐近有效性。     

一种Sieve极大似然估计的渐近性质

该文针对部分线性模型,在响应变量的观测值为Ⅰ型区间删失数据的情形下,讨论Ｓｉｅｖｅ极大似然估计的渐近性质．用三角级数来构造Ｓｉｅｖｅ空间,在一定条件下证明了该估计具有强相合性;得到了该估计的弱收敛速度,并且非参数部分的估计达到了最优收敛速度;还算出了参数部分的信息界．     

基于分组数据的回归系数的估计

本文讨论了如何去解决基于分组数据下的回归系数的估计问题.本文所讨论的基于分组数据下的回归模型与经典回归模型的差异在于因变量的观测值为分组数据,即我们只知道它落于事先确定的一组区间中的某一区间,而不知道它的具体值;而经典回归模型的因变量观测值则是一个确定的数值.我们用MLE去估计回归系数,但是此时的MLE无显式解,所以寻找一个合适的迭代算法就成了问题的关键.我们选择利用Bayes计算方法中的EM算法来获得估计量的迭代公式.随机模拟显示了所得估计的有效性.     

More comparisons of MLE with UMVUE for exponential families

Under some regularity conditions, the asymptotic expected deficiency (AED) of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) relative to the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) for a given one-parameter estimable function of an exponential family is obtained. The exact expressions of the AED for normal, lognormal, inverse Gaussian, exponential (or gamma), Pareto, hyperbolic secant, Bernoulli, Poisson and geometric (or negative binomial) distributions are also derived.     

On statistical models for regression diagnostics

In regression diagnostics, the case deletion model (CDM) and the mean shift outlier model (MSOM) are commonly used in practice. In this paper we show that the estimates of CDM and MSOM are equal in a wide class of statistical models, which include LSE, MLE, Bayesian estimate andM-estimate in linear and nonlinear regression models; MLE in generalized linear models and exponential family nonlinear models; MLEs of transformation parameters of explanatory variables in a Box-Cox regression models and so on. Furthermore, we study some models, in which, the estimates are not exactly equal but are approximately equal for CDM and MSOM.     

Pareto-Geometric分布

本文提出了一种具有单调失效率的新型寿命分布, 即由Pareto分布和Geometric分布生成的两参数的Pareto-Geometric分布, 研究了该分布的各种性质和参数极大似然估计的存在唯一性, 并应用 EM 算法得到了参数的极大似然估计值和相应的渐近方差、协方差.     

The asymptotics of misspecified MLEs for some stochastic processes: a survey

This is a review of some recent results on parameter estimation by the continuous time observations for two models of observations. The first one is the so called signal in white Gaussian noise and the second is inhomogeneous Poisson process. The main question in all statements is: what are the properties of the MLE if there is a misspecification in the regularity conditions? We consider three types of regularity: smooth signals, signals with cusp-type singularity and discontinuous signals. We suppose that the statistician assumes one type of regularity/singularity, but the real observations contain signals with different type of singularity/regularity. For example, the theoretical (assumed) model has a discontinuous signal, but the real observed signal has cusp-type singularity. We describe the asymptotic behavior of the MLE in such situations.     

Asymptotic properties of MLE for partially observed fractional diffusion system

The paper studies long time asymptotic properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) for the signal drift parameter in a partially observed fractional diffusion system. Using the method of weak convergence of likelihoods due to Ibragimov and Khasminskii (Statistics of random processes, 1981), consistency, asymptotic normality and convergence of the moments are established for MLE. The proof is based on Laplace transform computations.     

Error bounds for asymptotic expansions of the distribution of the MLE in a GMANOVA model

Summary In this paper we obtain asymptotic expansions for the distribution function and the density function of a linear combination of the MLE in a GMANOVA model, and for the density function of the MLE itself. We also obtain certain error bounds for the asymptotic expansions.     

A note on the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator in a non-regular case

We consider the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), when the log-likelihood ratio statistic weakly converges to the non-degenerated Gaussian process. We provide a simple expression for the density function of the asymptotic distribution by fundamental stochastic results. This note is helpful to investigate asymptotic properties of the MLE in a certain non-regular case.     

Asymptotic properties of the MLE for the autoregressive process coefficients under stationary Gaussian noise

In this paper we study the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) of the vector parameter of an autoregressive process of order p with regular stationary Gaussian noise. We prove the large sample asymptotic properties of the MLE under very mild conditions. We do simulations for fractional Gaussian noise (fGn), autoregressive noise (AR(1)) and moving average noise (MA(1)).     

Local asymptotic normality of a sequential model for marked point processes and its applications

This paper deals with statistical inference problems for a special type of marked point processes based on the realization in random time intervals [0,_u]. Sufficient conditions to establish the local asymptotic normality (LAN) of the model are presented, and then, certain class of stopping times _u satisfying them is proposed. Using these stopping rules, one can treat the processes within the framework of LAN, which yields asymptotic optimalities of various inference procedures. Applications for compound Poisson processes and continuous time Markov branching processes (CMBP) are discussed. Especially, asymptotically uniformly most powerful tests for criticality of CMBP can be obtained. Such tests do not exist in the case of the non-sequential approach. Also, asymptotic normality of the sequential maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the Malthusian parameter of CMBP can be derived, although the non-sequential MLE is not asymptotically normal in the supercritical case.     

Markov regime-switching quantile regression models and financial contagion detection

In this paper, we propose a Markov regime-switching quantile regression model, which considers the case where there may exist equilibria jumps in quantile regression. The parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method. A simulation study of this new model is conducted covering many scenarios. The simulation results show that the MLE method is efficient in estimating the model parameters. An empirical analysis is also provided, which focuses on the detection of financial crisis contagion between United States and some European Union countries during the period of sub-prime crisis from the angle of financial risk. The degree of financial contagion between markets is subsequently measured by utilizing the quantile regression coefficients. The empirical results show that in a crisis situation, the interdependence between United States and European Union countries dramatically increases.     

Asymptotic theory for estimating the parameters of a Lévy process

Summary We consider consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) for parameters of a Lévy process of the discontinuous type. The MLE are based on a single realization of the process on a given interval [0,t]. Depending on properties of the Lévy measure we either consider the MLE corresponding to jumps of size greater than ε and, keepingt fixed, we let ε tend to 0, or we consider the MLE corresponding to the complete information of the realization of the process on [0,t] and lett tend to ∞. The results of this paper improve in both generality and rigor previous asymptotic estimation results for such processes.