Approximating the time-weighted return: The case of flows at unknown time

We consider the problem of approximating the true time-weighted return when a cash flow occurs at an unknown time during the estimation period, which is usually the case of a traditional portfolio evaluated on a daily basis. We aim to provide the best approximation, in terms of mean square error (MSE), under the following main assumptions: the distribution of the log-returns belongs to a subclass of elliptical distributions; a single flow occurs at a uniformly distributed random time; the amount of the flow and the returns of the period are independent. We derive a closed-form formulation for high evaluation frequencies when the returns satisfy the popular assumption of a Geometric Brownian Motion. Besides, with the further assumption of small flows, the Original Dietz return can be obtained as an approximation of our optimal estimator. This implies that under the above-mentioned conditions the Original Dietz return has a MSE close to the minimum. Although further improvements of the MSE seem to be possible only by increasing the estimation frequency, which in turn is usually infeasible, our model provides a rigorous way to handle large flows, which are especially frequent in applications such as performance attribution.     

Half-Sweep Arithmetic Mean method with composite trapezoidal scheme for solving linear Fredholm integral equations

The main aim of this paper is to examine the effectiveness one of the two-stage iterative method known as Half-Sweep Arithmetic Mean (HSAM) method in solving the dense linear systems generated from the discretization of the first and second kinds of linear Fredholm integral equations. In addition, the formulation and implementation of the HSAM iterative method are also presented. Some illustrative examples are given to point out the efficiency of the proposed method.     

The theorem of the means for cardinal and ordinal numbers

The theorem that the arithmetic mean is greater than or equal to the geometric mean is investigated for cardinal and ordinal numbers. It is shown that whereas the theorem of the means can be proved for n pairwise comparable cardinal numbers without the axiom of choice, the inequality a² + b² ≥ 2ab is equivalent to the axiom of choice. For ordinal numbers, the inequality α² + β² ≥ 2αβ is established and the conditions for equality are derived; stronger inequalities are obtained for finite and infinite sequences of ordinals under suitable monotonicity hypotheses. MSC: 03E10, 04A10, 03E25, 04A25.     

求等差数列k次幂和的微分法

本文用微分法给出求等差数列ｋ次幂和的较简洁的计算公式．     

Time-consistent investment strategy under partial information

This paper considers a mean–variance portfolio selection problem under partial information, that is, the investor can observe the risky asset price with random drift which is not directly observable in financial markets. Since the dynamic mean–variance portfolio selection problem is time inconsistent, to seek the time-consistent investment strategy, the optimization problem is formulated and tackled in a game theoretic framework. Closed-form expressions of the equilibrium investment strategy and the corresponding equilibrium value function under partial information are derived by solving an extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman system of equations. In addition, the results are also given under complete information, which are need for the partial information case. Furthermore, some numerical examples are presented to illustrate the derived equilibrium investment strategies and numerical sensitivity analysis is provided.     

Minimum standards for investment performance: A new perspective on non-life insurer solvency

The aim of this paper is to develop an alternative approach for assessing an insurer’s solvency as a proposal for a standard model for Solvency II. Instead of deriving minimum capital requirements–as is done in solvency regulation–our model provides company-specific minimum standards for risk and return of investment performance, given the distribution structure of liabilities and a predefined safety level. The idea behind this approach is that in a situation of weak solvency, an insurer’s asset allocation can be adjusted much more easily in the short term than can, for example, claims cost distributions, operating expenses, or equity capital. Hence, instead of using separate models for capital regulation and solvency regulation–as is typically done in most insurance markets–our single model will reduce the complexity and costs for insurers as well as for regulators. In this paper, we first develop the model framework and second test its applicability using data from a German non-life insurer.     

The resource allocation problem for demand forecasting and performance measurement

We consider a retailer investing in two monitoring functions for unobservable demand and salesperson’s effort. We show that improving effort monitoring is more effective. Moreover, demand monitoring may be less preferable when it becomes relatively cheaper and balancing these two may be worse when they become more complementary.     

A framework for performance measurement during production ramp-up of assembly stations

Production ramp-up is an important phase in the lifecycle of a manufacturing system which still has significant potential for improvement and thereby reducing the time-to-market of new and updated products. Production systems today are mostly one-of-a-kind complex, engineered-to-order systems. Their ramp-up is a complex order of physical and logical adjustments which are characterised by try and error decision making resulting in frequent reiterations and unnecessary repetitions. Studies have shown that clear goal setting and feedback can significantly improve the effectiveness of decision-making in predominantly human decision processes such as ramp-up. However, few measurement-driven decision aides have been reported which focus on ramp-up improvement and no systematic approach for ramp-up time reduction has yet been defined. In this paper, a framework for measuring the performance during ramp-up is proposed in order to support decision making by providing clear metrics based on the measurable and observable status of the technical system. This work proposes a systematic framework for data preparation, ramp-up formalisation, and performance measurement. A model for defining the ramp-up state of a system has been developed in order to formalise and capture its condition. Functionality, quality and performance based metrics have been identified to formalise a clear ramp-up index as a measurement to guide and support the human decision making. For the validation of the proposed framework, two ramp-up processes of an assembly station were emulated and their comparison was used to evaluate this work.     

Optimal investment and risk control for an insurer under inside information

This paper is devoted to the study of the optimal investment and risk control strategy for an insurer who has some inside information on the financial market and the insurance business. The insurer’s risk process and the risky asset process in the financial market are assumed to be very general jump diffusion processes. The two processes are supposed to be correlated. Under the criterion of logarithmic utility maximization of the terminal wealth, we solve our problem by using forward integral approach. Some interesting particular cases are studied in which the explicit expressions of the optimal strategy are derived by using enlargement of filtration techniques.     

Uniform asymptotic estimates for ruin probabilities of renewal risk models with exponential Lévy process investment returns and dependent claims

This paper investigates the ruin probabilities of a renewal risk model with stochastic investment returns and dependent claim sizes. The investment is described as a portfolio of one risk‐free asset and one risky asset whose price process is an exponential Lévy process. The claim sizes are assumed to follow a one‐sided linear process with independent and identically distributed step sizes. When the step‐size distribution is heavy tailed, we establish some uniform asymptotic estimates for the ruin probabilities of this renewal risk model. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

考虑投资需求的易损耗物品质押融资决策模型

质押物发生损耗会降低质押物的市场价值,增加中小企业的违约风险,影响质押融资业务参与方的期望收益。同时,中小企业从金融机构获得的资金在扣除各项支出后如有剩余,还可以在资本市场进行短期投资以获利。基于此,本文设定质押物为易损耗物品且中小企业存在投资需求,构建存货质押融资决策模型。考虑两种情形:首先,给定金融机构的融资利率,决策中小企业的最佳投资回报率和物流企业的最优监管努力水平;其次,给定中小企业的投资回报率,决策金融机构的最佳融资利率和物流企业的最优监管努力水平。通过数值算例模拟决策变量的求解过程,敏感性分析验证了文中所给结论。     

Equilibrium investment strategy for DC pension plan with default risk and return of premiums clauses under CEV model

This paper considers an optimal investment problem for a defined contribution (DC) pension plan with default risk in a mean–variance framework. In the DC plan, contributions are supposed to be a predetermined amount of money as premiums and the pension funds are allowed to be invested in a financial market which consists of a risk-free asset, a defaultable bond and a risky asset satisfied a constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model. Notice that a part of pension members could die during the accumulation phase, and their premiums should be withdrawn. Thus, we consider the return of premiums clauses by an actuarial method and assume that the surviving members will share the difference between the return and the accumulation equally. Taking account of the pension fund size and the volatility of the accumulation, a mean–variance criterion as the investment objective for the DC plan can be formulated, and the original optimization problem can be decomposed into two sub-problems: a post-default case and a pre-default case. By applying a game theoretic framework, the equilibrium investment strategies and the corresponding equilibrium value functions can be obtained explicitly. Economic interpretations are given in the numerical simulation, which is presented to illustrate our results.     

The asymptotic performance ratio of an on-line algorithm for uniform parallel machine scheduling with release dates

Jobs arriving over time must be non-preemptively processed on one of m parallel machines, each running at its own speed, so as to minimize a weighted sum of the job completion times. In this on-line environment, the processing requirement and weight of a job are not known before the job arrives. The Weighted Shortest Processing Requirement (WSPR) heuristic is a simple extension of the well known WSPT heuristic, which is optimal for the single machine problem without release dates. According to WSPR, whenever a machine completes a job, the next job assigned to it is the one with the least ratio of processing requirement to weight among all jobs available for processing at this point in time. We analyze the performance of this heuristic and prove that its asymptotic competitive ratio is one for all instances with bounded job processing requirements and weights. This implies that the WSPR algorithm generates a solution whose relative error approaches zero as the number of jobs increases. Our proof does not require any probabilistic assumption on the job parameters and relies extensively on properties of optimal solutions to a single machine relaxation of the problem. Research supported in part by ONR Contracts N00014-90-J-1649 and N00014-95-1-0232, NSF Contracts DDM-9322828, DMI-9732795, DMI-0085683 and DMI-0245352, NUS Academic Research Grant R314-000-046-112, and a research grant from the Natural Sciences and Research Council of Canada (NSERC).     

教育收益率估计方法的比较

本文对教育经济学中个人教育投资明瑟收益率的估计方法进行了比较研究,特别是引入了部分线性回归模型对明瑟收益率进行估计的方法,并且通过广义似然比检验对常规明瑟模型中的参数形式进行了检验。     

Modeling stock index returns by means of partial least‐squares methods: An out‐of‐sample analysis for three stock markets

We analyze the underlying economic forces of the stock markets in Germany, the U.K. and the U.S. Identifying a number of variables evincing return predictability, we follow a partial least‐squares (PLS) approach to combine these observables into a few latent factors. Conditional on European markets, our findings indicate (i) superior prediction performance of PLS‐based schemes in comparison with both, a random walk and a first‐order autoregressive benchmark model, (ii) consistent profitable trading on the German and British market, (iii) profitable linear forecast combinations, (iv) the U.S. stock market is diagnosed as informationally efficient. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

研究国际证券投资及其有效集的多目标线性规划方法

本文给出国际证券组合投资决策的多目标线性规划模型，以及求解有效国际证券组合的偏好系数加权法．在此基础上，应用线性多数规划技术研究有效国际证券组合集的几何特征，并给出相应结论和简单算例．     

具指数赋权指标的证券投资多目标线性规划模型

本文提出证券投资决策的指数赋权指标体系．在该指标体系中,建立风险证券组合投资决策和存在无风险证券或无风险贷款时证券组合投资决策的多目标线性规划模型．研究了有效风险证券组合集和有效证券组合集的结构和相互关系,市场证券组合以及证券均衡市场价格和投资风险分析．     

A thermodynamic framework for a mixture of two liquids

In this study, we extend a thermodynamic framework that has been used with some success for describing the response of a variety of single constituent continua. Using the thermodynamic framework, we obtain a model for the mixture of two compressible fluids that has a much simpler structure than the model obtained earlier within the context of mixture theory. We also investigate the response of a mixture of two fluids that is constrained to have a constant volume, using the same thermodynamic framework.     

Uniform estimate for maximum of randomly weighted sums with applications to insurance risk theory

This paper obtains the uniform estimate for maximum of sums of independent and heavy-tailed random variables with nonnegative random weights,which can be arbi- trarily dependent of each other.Then the applications to ruin probabilities in a discrete time risk model with dependent stochastic returns are considered.     

Weak Type Inequalities for Best Simultaneous Approximation in Banach Spaces

For arbitrary Banach spaces Butzer and Scherer in 1968 showed that the approximation order of best approximation can characterized by the order of certain K-functionals. This general theorem has many applications such as the characterization of the best approximation of algebraic polynomials by moduli of smoothness involving the Legendre, Chebyshev, or more general the Jacobi transform. In this paper we introduce a family of seminorms on the underlying approximation space which leads to a generalization of the Butzer–Scherer theorems. Now the characterization of the weighted best algebraic approximation in terms of the so-called main part modulus of Ditzian and Totik is included in our frame as another particular application. The goal of the paper is to show that for the characterization of the orders of best approximation, simultaneous approximation (in different spaces), reduction theorems, and K-functionals one has (essentially) only to verify three types of inequalities, namely inequalities of Jackson-, Bernstein-type and an equivalence condition which guarantees the equivalence of the seminorm and the underlying norm on certain subspaces. All the results are given in weak-type estimates for almost arbitrary approximation orders, the proofs use only functional analytic methods.