同时考虑传染媒介和传播延迟的复杂网络病毒传播行为研究

提出一种新的流行病传播模型,基于平均场理论,研究传染媒介和传播延迟同时存在对网络中流行病传播行为的影响.理论分析和仿真结果表明,传染媒介和传播延迟同时存在显著增强了网络中流行病爆发的危险性,并加速了流行病的传播.研究还发现,对于给定的有效传播率,均匀网络中流行病的感染程度分别与传染媒介的传染概率和传播延迟呈对数关系,无标度网络中流行病的感染程度与传染媒介的传染概率呈幂率关系,而与传播延迟之间则存在线性关系。     

复杂网络中考虑不完全免疫的病毒传播研究

复杂网络中不完全免疫包括免疫失败和免疫失效两种情况,本文研究两者同时存在对网络病毒传播行为的影响,基于平均场理论,提出一种新的传播模型.理论分析表明,免疫失败和免疫失效同时存在显著降低了网络的传播临界值,增强了病毒的感染程度.根据传播临界值与免疫节点密度、免疫成功率以及免疫失效率之间的关系,给出有效控制网络病毒传播的策略.通过数值仿真进行验证。     

The fastest spreader in SIS epidemics on networks

Identifying the fastest spreaders in epidemics on a network helps to ensure an efficient spreading. By ranking the average spreading time for different spreaders, we show that the fastest spreader may change with the effective infection rate of a SIS epidemic process, which means that the time-dependent influence of a node is usually strongly coupled to the dynamic process and the underlying network. With increasing effective infection rate, we illustrate that the fastest spreader changes from the node with the largest degree to the node with the shortest flooding time. (The flooding time is the minimum time needed to reach all other nodes if the process is reduced to a flooding process.) Furthermore, by taking the local topology around the spreader and the average flooding time into account, we propose the spreading efficiency as a metric to quantify the efficiency of a spreader and identify the fastest spreader, which is adaptive to different infection rates in general networks.     

Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks including the effect of individual vigilance

In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading in scale-free networks and propose a new susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) model that includes the effect of individual vigilance. In our model, the effective spreading rate is dynamically adjusted with the time evolution at the vigilance period. Using the mean-field theory, an analytical result is derived. It shows that individual vigilance has no effect on the epidemic threshold. The numerical simulations agree well with the analytical result. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of individual vigilance on the epidemic spreading speed. It is shown that individual vigilance can slow the epidemic spreading speed effectively and delay the arrival of peak epidemic infection.     

Finite size effects in epidemic spreading: the problem of overpopulated systems

In this paper we analyze the impact of network size on the dynamics of epidemic spreading. In particular, we investigate the pace of infection in overpopulated systems. In order to do that, we design a model for epidemic spreading on a finite complex network with a restriction to at most one contamination per time step, which can serve as a model for sexually transmitted diseases spreading in some student communes. Because of the highly discrete character of the process, the analysis cannot use the continuous approximation widely exploited for most models. Using a discrete approach, we investigate the epidemic threshold and the quasi-stationary distribution. The main results are two theorems about the mixing time for the process: it scales like the logarithm of the network size and it is proportional to the inverse of the distance from the epidemic threshold.     

Effects of disease characteristics and population distribution on dynamics of epidemic spreading among residential sites

We investigate the spreading processes of epidemic diseases among many residential sites for different disease characteristics and different population distributions by constructing and solving a set of integrodifferential equations for the evolutions of position-dependent infected and infective rates, taking into account the infection processes both within a single site and among different sites. In a spreading process the states of an individual include susceptible (S), incubative (I), active (A) and recovered (R) states. Although the transition from S to I mainly depends on the active rate, the susceptible rate and the connectivity among individuals, the transitions from I to A and from A to R are determined by intrinsic characteristics of disease development in individuals. We adopt incubation and infection periods to describe the intrinsic features of the disease. By numerically solving the equations we find that the asymptotic behavior of the spreading crucially depends on the infection period and the population under affection of an active individual. Other factors, such as the structure of network and the popular distribution, play less important roles. The study may provide useful information for analyzing the key parameters affecting the dynamics and the asymptotic behavior.     

Integrated systemic inflammatory response syndrome epidemic model in scale-free networks

Based on the scale-free network, an integrated systemic inflammatory response syndrome model with artificial immunity, a feedback mechanism, crowd density and the moving activities of an individual can be built. The effects of these factors on the spreading process are investigated through the model. The research results show that the artificial immunity can reduce the stable infection ratio and enhance the spreading threshold of the system. The feedback mechanism can only reduce the stable infection ratio of system, but cannot affect the spreading threshold of the system. The bigger the crowd density is, the higher the infection ratio of the system is and the smaller the spreading threshold is. In addition, the simulations show that the individual movement can enhance the stable infection ratio of the system only under the condition that the spreading rate is high, however, individual movement will reduce the stable infection ratio of the system.     

Periodic Wave of Epidemic Spreading in Community Networks

It was reported by Cummings ef al. [Nature 427 （2004） 344] that there are periodic waves in the spatiotemporal data of epidemics. For understanding the mechanism, we study the epidemic spreading on community networks by both the SIS model and the SIRS model. We find that with the increase of infection rate, the number of total infected nodes may be stabilized at a fixed point, oscillatory waves, and periodic cycles. Moreover, the epidemic spreading in the SIS model can be explained by an analytic map.     

The relative importance of structure and dynamics on node influence in reversible spreading processes

The reversible spreading processes with repeated infection widely exist in nature and human society, such as gonorrhea propagation and meme spreading. Identifying influential spreaders is an important issue in the reversible spreading dynamics on complex networks, which has been given much attention. Except for structural centrality, the nodes’ dynamical states play a significant role in their spreading influence in the reversible spreading processes. By integrating the number of outgoing edges and infection risks of node’s neighbors into structural centrality, a new measure for identifying influential spreaders is articulated which considers the relative importance of structure and dynamics on node influence. The number of outgoing edges and infection risks of neighbors represent the positive effect of the local structural characteristic and the negative effect of the dynamical states of nodes in identifying influential spreaders, respectively. We find that an appropriate combination of these two characteristics can greatly improve the accuracy of the proposed measure in identifying the most influential spreaders. Notably, compared with the positive effect of the local structural characteristic, slightly weakening the negative effect of dynamical states of nodes can make the proposed measure play the best performance. Quantitatively understanding the relative importance of structure and dynamics on node influence provides a significant insight into identifying influential nodes in the reversible spreading processes.     

Epidemic prevalence on random mobile dynamical networks: individual heterogeneity and correlation

In this paper, we extend the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemiological model on a random dynamical network composed of mobile individuals, in which the infection is caused by the collisions between susceptible and infected individuals at the spreading rate proportional to their susceptibilities and infectivities. We analytically study the criticality of spreading dynamics under different distributions of individual susceptibility and infectivity, and numerically verify the cases of power-law and (or) Gaussian distributions. Our findings show that the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity increases the epidemic threshold, and the positive correlation of individual susceptibility and infectivity avails to the epidemic prevalence.     

Epidemic dynamics behavior in some bus transport networks

We abstract bus transport networks (BTNs) to complex networks using the Space P approach. First, we select three actual BTNs in three major cities in China, namely, Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou. Using the SIS model, we simulate and study the epidemic spreading in the three BTNs. We obtain the density of infected vertices varying with time and the stationary density of infected vertices varying with infection rate. Second, we simulate and study the epidemic spreading in a recently introduced BTN evolution model, the network properties of which correspond well with those of actual BTNs. Third, we use mean-field theory to analyze the epidemic dynamics behavior of the BTN evolution model and obtain the theoretical epidemic threshold of this model. The theoretical value agrees well with the simulation results. Based on the work in this paper, we provide the following possible forecasts for epidemic dynamics in actual BTNs. An actual BTN should have a finite positive epidemic threshold. If the effective infection rate is above this threshold, the epidemic spread in the network and the density of infected vertices finally stabilizes in a balanced state. Below this threshold, the number of infected vertices decays exponentially fast and the epidemic cannot spread on a large scale.     

Temporal behaviors of epidemic spreading on the scale-free network

Exploring temporal behaviors of the epidemic spreading is of particular importance, in which field an interesting phenomenon of hierarchical spreading cascade has already been demonstrated. By taking into account the effect of density of infected neighbors around an individual in the definition of spreading rate, an infection mechanism modulated by a parameter is introduced in the present paper. Under the mechanism temporal behaviors on the scale-free network are shown to be different, corresponding to different parameters. Three distinct hierarchical spreading modes are typically exhibited. In addition, a novel way to depict the dynamical processes of the epidemic spreading is also developed and some new features are, thus, clearly displayed.     

在二部无标度网上的两性疾病传播

利用易感-感染-易感(SIS)传播模型研究人类性接触网上的病毒传播.当仅仅考虑异性性接触时,该网络是一个二部的无标度网.对这个网络上的SIS传播模型,通过率方程的方法分析了男性感染率和女性感染率与传染阈值之间的关系,发现女性感染者与男性感染者之比由网络的拓扑和男女感染率之比所确定.这一结果表明性接触网的拓扑对性传染病传播的重要性.最后给出了支持理论结果的数值模拟. 关键词： 性传染病 两性性接触网 无标度网络 二部图     

Computational complexity of impact size estimation for spreading processes on networks

Spreading processes on networks are often analyzed to understand how the outcome of the process (e.g. the number of affected nodes) depends on structural properties of the underlying network. Most available results are ensemble averages over certain interesting graph classes such as random graphs or graphs with a particular degree distributions. In this paper, we focus instead on determining the expected spreading size and the probability of large spreadings for a single (but arbitrary) given network and study the computational complexity of these problems using reductions from well-known network reliability problems. We show that computing both quantities exactly is intractable, but that the expected spreading size can be efficiently approximated with Monte Carlo sampling. When nodes are weighted to reflect their importance, the problem becomes as hard as the s-t reliability problem, which is not known to yield an efficient randomized approximation scheme up to now. Finally, we give a formal complexity-theoretic argument why there is most likely no randomized constant-factor approximation for the probability of large spreadings, even for the unweighted case. A hybrid Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is proposed that resorts to specialized s-t reliability algorithms for accurately estimating the infection probability of those nodes that are rarely affected by the spreading process.     

Epidemic spreading on networks with overlapping community structure

Many real networks are characterized by overlapping community structures in which vertices may belong to more than one community. In this paper, we propose a network model with overlapping community structure. The analytical and numerical results show that the connectivity distribution of this network follows a power law. We employ this network to investigate the impact of overlapping community structure on susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic spreading process. The simulation results indicate that significant overlapping community structure results in a major infection prevalence and leads to a peak of the spread velocity in the early stages of the emerging infection.     

Reverse-feeding effect of epidemic by propagators in two-layered networks

Epidemic spreading has been studied for a long time and is currently focused on the spreading of multiple pathogens,especially in multiplex networks. However, little attention has been paid to the case where the mutual influence between different pathogens comes from a fraction of epidemic propagators, such as bisexual people in two separated groups of heterosexual and homosexual people. We here study this topic by presenting a network model of two layers connected by impulsive links, in contrast to the persistent links in each layer. We let each layer have a distinct pathogen and their interactive infection is implemented by a fraction of propagators jumping between the corresponding pairs of nodes in the two layers. By this model we show that(i) the propagators take the key role to transmit pathogens from one layer to the other,which significantly influences the stabilized epidemics;(ii) the epidemic thresholds will be changed by the propagators;and(iii) a reverse-feeding effect can be expected when the infective rate is smaller than its threshold of isolated spreading.A theoretical analysis is presented to explain the numerical results.     

Epidemic spreading in communities with mobile agents

We propose a model of mobile agents to study the epidemic spreading in communities with different densities of agents, which aims to simulate the realistic situation of multiple cities. The model addresses the epidemic process from a community with threshold λ_c1 less than the infection rate λ to a community with threshold λ_c2 larger than λ through both direct and indirect contacts. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations we show that it is possible to sustain the epidemic spreading in the community with λ_c2 through contact with another community, provided that the latter is connected with an infected community. This result suggests that for effectively controlling the epidemic spread, we should also pay attention to the risk caused by the infection through indirect contact.     

Universality classes of spatiotemporal intermittency

We discuss the spatiotemporal intermittency (STI) seen in the coupled sine circle map lattice. The phase diagram of this system, when updated with random initial conditions, shows very rich behaviour including synchronised solutions, and STI of various kinds. These behaviours are organised around the bifurcation boundary of the synchronised solutions, as well as an infection line which separates the lower part of the phase diagram into a spreading and a non-spreading regime. The STI seen at the bifurcation boundary in the spreading regime belongs convincingly to the directed percolation (DP) universality class. In the non-spreading regime, spatial intermittency (SI) with temporally regular bursts is seen at the bifurcation boundary. The laminar length distribution scales as a power-law with an exponent which is quite distinct from DP behaviour. Therefore, both DP and non-DP universality classes are seen in this system. When the coupled map lattice is mapped to a cellular automaton via coarse graining, a transition from a probabilistic cellular automaton to a deterministic cellular automaton at the infection line signals the transition from spreading to non-spreading behaviour.     

社交网络中信息传播的稳定性研究

社交网络已成为当前最重要的信息传播媒体之一,因此有必要研究信息在社交网络上的传播规律.本文探索了包含遏制机制和遗忘机制的信息传播机理,提出了信息传播的模型,给出了信息传播的规则,建立了相应的平均场方程,计算了平衡点和基本再生数R_0,并从理论上证明了平衡点的渐进稳定性.仿真实验分析了遏制机制、遗忘机制等因素对信息传播过程的影响,并验证了所得结论的正确性.