状态转移框架下跨地区、跨行业资产配置模型及实证

利用Markov状态转移模型捕捉金融资产收益率序列的非线性、动态的结构性变化,考虑不同市场状态下资金在地区板块、行业板块间流动导致的板块轮动效应,构建基于状态转移的跨地区、跨行业资产配置模型。在此基础上,对市场状态和地区、行业板块轮动效应对资产配置的影响进行细致分析。研究发现:中国股票市场存在明显的动态结构性变化,可以分为熊市状态和牛市状态,两种市场状态下最优资产配置结构不同。结果表明,状态转移框架下的跨地区和跨行业资产配置能够刻画非对称市场状态下资产的收益和风险特征,分散非系统性风险的同时降低市场风险,提高投资者的收益,可以为投资者决策提供有价值的参考。     

First-passage times of regime switching models

The probability of a stochastic process to first breach an upper and/or a lower level is an important quantity for optimal control and risk management. We present those probabilities for regime switching Brownian motion. In the 2- and 3-state model, the Laplace transform of the (single and double barrier) first-passage times is–up to the roots of a polynomial of degree 4 (respectively 6)–derived in closed-form by solving the matrix Wiener–Hopf factorization.¹ This extends single barrier results in the 2-state model by Guo (2001b). If the quotient of drift and variance is constant over all states, we show that the Laplace transform can even be inverted analytically.     

Filter‐based portfolio strategies in an HMM setting with varying correlation parametrizations

We consider portfolio optimization in a regime‐switching market. The assets of the portfolio are modeled through a hidden Markov model (HMM) in discrete time, where drift and volatility of the single assets are allowed to switch between different states. We consider different parametrizations of the involved asset covariances: statewise uncorrelated assets (though linked through the common Markov chain), assets correlated in a state‐independent way, and assets where the correlation varies from state to state. As a benchmark, we also consider a model without regime switches. We utilize a filter‐based expectation‐maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain optimal parameter estimates within this multivariate HMM and present parameter estimators in all three HMM settings. We discuss the impact of these different models on the performance of several portfolio strategies. Our findings show that for simulated returns, our strategies in many settings outperform naïve investment strategies, like the equal weights strategy. Information criteria can be used to detect the best model for estimation as well as for portfolio optimization. A second study using real data confirms these findings.     

信用风险相关性度量的MRS Copula模型构建及实证研究

在构建行业信用风险指数的基础上,将马尔科夫机制转换引入到信用风险相关性的度量中,建立了信用风险相关性度量的MRS Copula模型。以1990-2012年电力、煤气及水的生产和供应业,批发、零售、贸易业,石油、化学、塑胶、塑料业和信息技术业为样本的实证研究表明,行业信用风险相关性表现出较为明显的机制转换特征和非对称效应,在高风险状态,信用风险相关系数达到了0.7以上,而在低风险状态,信用风险相关系数在0.2以下.同时,信用风险"一损俱损"的特征比较明显,行业信用风险的下尾相关系数较为显著,而上尾相关系数则并不显著.商业银行可据此调整信贷资产结构,防范信用风险传染,以及优化信贷组合管理.     

On the joint distribution of surplus before and after ruin under a Markovian regime switching model

We consider a Markovian regime switching insurance risk model (also called Markov-modulated risk model). The closed form solutions for the joint distribution of surplus before and after ruin when the initial surplus is zero or when the claim size distributions are phase-type distributed are obtained.     

机制转换条件下股市收益率跳跃行为研究:基于RS-ARJI模型的以中国股市为例的实证分析

为检验股市收益率机制转换特性,考察机制转换条件下股市收益率的跳跃特征,以及在不同机制下跳跃行为对股市收益率的冲击效应,将Markov机制转换思想引入自回归跳跃(ARJI)模型,构建一个机制转换自回归跳跃(RS-ARM)模型.基于该模型对中国股市进行实证研究,结果表明:股市存在高、低波动两种机制,高波动时期的跳跃幅度和强度及其对股市收益率的冲击均大于低波动时期.同时,波动率估计和预测评价指标显示,RS-ARJI模型优于目前被广泛使用的GARCH模型和ARJI模型.     

Detecting stock market regimes from option prices

Equity market returns alternate between periods of calm and crises. Researchers commonly employ regime switching models to capture this behaviour. We show that forward-looking information extracted from option prices improves regime detection. In particular, horizon spreads in option-implied equity risk premia allow earlier detection of regime switches and improve prediction of the equity premium. This findings holds across recent disaster periods like the 2008/2009 financial crisis and the 2020 Covid pandemic outbreak, in both US and Emerging equity markets.     

On the bailout dividend problem with periodic dividend payments for spectrally negative Markov additive processes

This paper studies the bailout optimal dividend problem with regime switching under the constraint that dividend payments can be made only at the arrival times of an independent Poisson process while capital can be injected continuously in time. We show the optimality of the regime-modulated Parisian-classical reflection strategy when the underlying risk model follows a general spectrally negative Markov additive process. In order to verify the optimality, first we study an auxiliary problem driven by a single spectrally negative Lévy process with a final payoff at an exponential terminal time and characterize the optimal dividend strategy. Then, we use the dynamic programming principle to transform the global regime-switching problem into an equivalent local optimization problem with a final payoff up to the first regime switching time. The optimality of the regime modulated Parisian-classical barrier strategy can be proven by using the results from the auxiliary problem and approximations via recursive iterations.     

基于状态转移模型的条件期望与方差——从2状态到N状态的推广

基于状态转移模型计算的条件期望与方差,可以应用到金融领域,计算和度量市场在不同状态下的收益与风险.Nielson基于2状态转移模型,计算了2状态下股市的收益率的条件期望与方差.然而,实际研究中,常需要用到3状态、甚至多状态的状态转移模型.因此,基于Nielson的研究,从2状态推广到了$N$状态.基于$N$状态转移模型计算了条件期望、条件方差及无条件期望、无条件方差,该结果更具普遍性且形式更为简洁.最后,采用计算期望与方差的方法,分析中国股市收益率与波动率.实证结果表明,中国股市除存在牛市、熊市外,还存在政策市,且其具有`` 低风险,高收益"的特点.利用$N$状态转移模型计算的期望与方差可以更合理地度量金融市场在不同情况下的收益与风险.     

THE critical exponent of the tree lattice generating function in the eden model

We consider the increase in the number of trees as their size increases in the Eden growth model on simple and face-centered hypercubic lattices in different space dimensions. We propose a first-order partial differential equation for the tree generating function, which allows relating the exponent at the critical point of this function to the perimeter of the most probable tree. We estimate tree perimeters for the lattices considered. The theoretical values of the exponents agree well with the values previously obtained by computer modeling. We thus explain the closeness of the dimension dependences of the exponents of the simple and face-centered lattices and their difference from the results in the Bethe lattice approximation.     

Optimal Reinsurance and Dividend Strategies Under the Markov-Modulated Insurance Risk Model

In this article, we consider the optimal reinsurance and dividend strategy for an insurer. We model the surplus process of the insurer by the classical compound Poisson risk model modulated by an observable continuous-time Markov chain. The object of the insurer is to select the reinsurance and dividend strategy that maximizes the expected total discounted dividend payments until ruin. We give the definition of viscosity solution in the presence of regime switching. The optimal value function is characterized as the unique viscosity solution of the associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation and a verification theorem is also obtained.     

American put option with regime‐switching volatility (finite time horizon)—Variational inequality approach

We study the fair price of American put option with regime‐switching volatility. Assuming that volatility σ(t) takes two different values σ₁ and σ₂, applying Δ hedging technique we obtain a system of evolutionary variational inequalities, which possesses two free boundaries (optimal exercise boundaries). The following are the main results of this paper.

• 1. Two free boundaries are monotonic and infinitely differentiable.
• 2. The optimal exercise boundary of American put option with regime‐switching volatility in the bearish (or bullish) market is smaller (or higher) than the one of standard American put option. And the price of American put option with regime‐switching volatility in the bearish (or bullish) market is higher (or smaller) than the one of standard American put option.
• 3. The solution of problem (1) is unique.

These results are original in the option pricing with regime‐switching volatility, the proof is technical. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Explicit solutions of optimal consumption,investment and insurance problems with regime switching

We consider an investor who wants to select his optimal consumption, investment and insurance policies. Motivated by new insurance products, we allow not only the financial market but also the insurable loss to depend on the regime of the economy. The objective of the investor is to maximize his expected total discounted utility of consumption over an infinite time horizon. For the case of hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) utility functions, we obtain the first explicit solutions for simultaneous optimal consumption, investment, and insurance problems when there is regime switching. We determine that the optimal insurance contract is either no-insurance or deductible insurance, and calculate when it is optimal to buy insurance. The optimal policy depends strongly on the regime of the economy. Through an economic analysis, we calculate the advantage of buying insurance.     

Risk Minimizing Option Pricing in a Regime Switching Market

Abstract

We study option pricing in a regime switching market where the risk free interest rate, growth rate and the volatility of a stock depends on a finite state Markov chain. Using a minimal martingale measure we show that the risk minimizing option price satisfies a system of Black–Scholes partial differential equations with weak coupling.     

A critically loaded multiclass Erlang loss system

We consider a generalization of the classical Erlang loss model to multiple classes of customers. Each of the J customer classes has an associated Poisson arrival process and an arbitrary holding time distribution. Classj customers requireM _j servers simultaneously. We determine the asymptotic form of the blocking probabilities for all customer classes in the regime known as critical loading, where both the number of servers and offered load are large and almost equal. Asymptotically, the blocking probability of classj customers is proportional toM _j . This asymptotic result provides an approximation for the blocking probabilities which is reasonably accurate. We also consider the behavior of the Erlang fixed point (reduced load approximation) for this model under critical loading. Although the blocking probability of classj customers given by the Erlang fixed point is again asymptotically proportional toM _j , the Erlang fixed point typically gives the wrong limit. Next we show that under critical loading the throughputs have a pleasingly simple form of monotonicity with respect to arrival rates: the throughput of classi is increasing in the arrival rate of classi and decreasing in the arrival rate of classj forji. Finally, we compare two simple control policies for this system under critical loading.     

Solving complex PDE systems for pricing American options with regime‐switching by efficient exponential time differencing schemes

In this article, we study the numerical solutions of a class of complex partial differential equation (PDE) systems with free boundary conditions. This problem arises naturally in pricing American options with regime‐switching, which adds significant complexity in the PDE systems due to regime coupling. Developing efficient numerical schemes will have important applications in computational finance. We propose a new method to solve the PDE systems by using a penalty method approach and an exponential time differencing scheme. First, the penalty method approach is applied to convert the free boundary value PDE system to a system of PDEs over a fixed rectangular region for the time and spatial variables. Then, a new exponential time differncing Crank–Nicolson (ETD‐CN) method is used to solve the resulting PDE system. This ETD‐CN scheme is shown to be second order convergent. We establish an upper bound condition for the time step size and prove that this ETD‐CN scheme satisfies a discrete version of the positivity constraint for American option values. The ETD‐CN scheme is compared numerically with a linearly implicit penalty method scheme and with a tree method. Numerical results are reported to illustrate the convergence of the new scheme. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Numer Methods Partial Differential Eq 2013     

随机波动模型的马尔可夫链—蒙特卡洛模拟方法——在沪市收益率序列上的应用

针对具有Markov区制转移的、波动均值状态相依的随机波动模型,基于贝叶斯分析,我们推导并给出了对区制转移随机波动模型的MCMC估计方法,其中对参数估计采用Gibbs抽样方法,对潜在对数波动和区制的状态变量估计采用"向前滤波、向后抽样"的多步移动方法;利用该模型,对我国上证综指周收益率进行了实证分析,发现对沪市波动性有较好的描述,捕捉了波动的时变性、聚类性和非线性特征,同时刻画了沪市的高低波动状态转换过程。     

Asymptotic analysis of option pricing in a Markov modulated market

We address asymptotic analysis of option pricing in a regime switching market where the risk free interest rate, growth rate and the volatility of the stocks depend on a finite state Markov chain. We study two variations of the chain namely, when the chain is moving very fast compared to the underlying asset price and when it is moving very slow. Using quadratic hedging and asymptotic expansion, we derive corrections on the locally risk minimizing option price.     

A multicast problem with shared risk cost

In this paper, we study a minimum cost multicast problem on a network with shared risk link groups (SRLGs). Each SRLG contains a set of arcs with a common risk, and there is a cost associated with it. The objective of the problem is to find a multicast tree from the source to a set of destinations with minimum transmission cost and risk cost. We present a basic model for the multicast problem with shared risk cost (MCSR) based on the well-known multicommodity flow formulation for the Steiner tree problem (Goemans and Myung in Networks 1:19–28, 1993; Polzin and Daneshmand in Discrete Applied Mathematics 112(1–3): 241–261, 2001). We propose a set of strong valid inequalities to tighten the linear relaxation of the basic model. We also present a mathematical model for undirected MCSR. The computational results of real life test instances demonstrate that the new valid inequalities significantly improve the linear relaxation bounds of the basic model, and reduce the total computation time by half in average.     

投资者情绪影响下资本资产定价的区制性研究——基于股票论坛发帖的情感分析

本文首先建立一个考虑投资者情绪的资本资产定价模型,研究发现,投资者情绪是资产定价的系统性因子且对其影响具有区制性(存在三个区制)。在此基础上通过仿真揭示投资者情绪对资产定价影响存在区制性的原因在于当投资者情绪增加时,最优组合超额收益受组合效应与情绪效应的综合影响。最后基于股票论坛发帖的情感分析构建投资者情绪指标,实证检验了本文的理论模型,并发现基于普通的线性回归模型得到的投资者情绪对股指超额收益影响,一方面会在投资者情绪处于第二区制内时将其对股指超额收益影响方向弄反,另一方面会在投资者情绪处于第三区制内时低估其增加导致的股指超额收益平均增加程度。