Joint Distributions of Runs in a Sequence of Multi-State Trials

In this paper we introduce a Markov chain imbeddable vector of multinomial type and a Markov chain imbeddable variable of returnable type and discuss some of their properties. These concepts are extensions of the Markov chain imbeddable random variable of binomial type which was introduced and developed by Koutras and Alexandrou (1995, Ann. Inst. Statist. Math., 47, 743–766). By using the results, we obtain the distributions and the probability generating functions of numbers of occurrences of runs of a specified length based on four different ways of counting in a sequence of multi-state trials. Our results also yield the distribution of the waiting time problems.     

Waiting time distributions of runs in higher order Markov chains

We consider a {0,1}-valuedm-th order stationary Markov chain. We study the occurrences of runs where two 1’s are separated byat most/exactly/at least k 0’s under the overlapping enumeration scheme wherek≥0 and occurrences of scans (at leastk ₁ successes in a window of length at mostk, 1≤k ₁≤k) under both non-overlapping and overlapping enumeration schemes. We derive the generating function of first two types of runs. Under the conditions, (1) strong tendency towards success and (2) strong tendency towards reversing the state, we establish the convergence of waiting times of ther-th occurrence of runs and scans to Poisson type distributions. We establish the central limit theorem and law of the iterated logarithm for the number of runs and scans up to timen.     

Joint Distributions of Numbers of Runs of Specified Lengths in a Sequence of Markov Dependent Multistate Trials

Let Z ₀, Z ₁,...,Z _n be a sequence of Markov dependent trials with state space Ω = {F ₁,...,F _λ, S ₁,...,S _ν}, where we regard F ₁,...,F _λ as failures and S ₁,...,S _ν as successes. In this paper, we study the joint distribution of the numbers of S _i -runs of lengths k _ij (i = 1,2,...,ν, j = 1,2,...,r _i ) based on four different enumeration schemes. We present formulae for the evaluation of the probability generating functions and the higher order moments of this distribution. In addition, when the underlying sequence is i.i.d. trials, the conditional distribution of the same run statistics, given the numbers of success and failure is investigated. We give further insights into the multivariate run-related problems arising from a sequence of the multistate trials. Besides, our results have potential applications to problems of various research areas and will come to prominence in the future. This research was partially supported by the ISM Cooperative Research Program (2004-ISM·CRP-2007).     

Manifolds polarized by vector bundles

LetX be a complex projective manifold of dimension n and let ε be an ample vector bundle of rank r. Let also τ = τ (X,ε) = min {t ∈ ℝ : K_X + t det ε is nef} be the nef value of the pair (X, ε). In this paper we classify the pairs (X, ε) such that{ Mathematics Subject Classification (2000)14J60; 14J40; 14E30     

The Key Renewal Theorem for a Transient Markov Chain

We consider a time-homogeneous real-valued Markov chain X _n , n≥0. Suppose that this chain is transient, that is, X _n generates a σ-finite renewal measure. We prove the key renewal theorem under the condition that this chain has jumps that are asymptotically homogeneous at infinity and asymptotically positive drift.     

Generalized binomial and negative binomial distributions of order<Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis> by the<Emphasis Type="Italic">l</Emphasis>-overlapping enumeration scheme

In this paper, we investigate the exact distribution of the waiting time for ther-th ℓ-overlapping occurrence of success-runs of a specified length in a sequence of two state Markov dependent trials. The probability generating functions are derived explicitly, and as asymptotic results, relationships of a negative binomial distribution of orderk and an extended Poisson distribution of orderk are discussed. We provide further insights into the run-related problems from the viewpoint of the ℓ-overlapping enumeration scheme. We also study the exact distribution of the number of ℓ-overlapping occurrences of success-runs in a fixed number of trials and derive the probability generating functions. The present work extends several properties of distributions of orderk and leads us a new type of geneses of the discrete distributions.     

Weighted approximation of random functions

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Elementary Symmetric Polynomials in Random Variables

The subject of the paper is the probability-theoretic properties of elementary symmetric polynomials σ _k of arbitrary degree k in random variables X _i (i=1,2,…,m) defined on special subsets of commutative rings ℛ _m with identity of finite characteristic m. It is shown that the probability distributions of the random elements σ _k (X ₁,…,X _m ) tend to a limit when m→∞ if X ₁,…,X _m form a Markov chain of finite degree μ over a finite set of states V, V⊂ℛ _m , with positive conditional probabilities. Moreover, if all the conditional probabilities exceed a prescribed positive number α, the limit distributions do not depend on the choice of the chain.      

On the transition from a Markov chain to a continuous time process

Starting from a real-valued Markov chain X₀,X₁,…,X_n with stationary transition probabilities, a random element {Y(t);t[0, 1]} of the function space D[0, 1] is constructed by letting Y(k/n)=X_k, k= 0,1,…,n, and assuming Y (t) constant in between. Sample tightness criteria for sequences {Y(t);t[0,1]};_n of such random elements in D[0, 1] are then given in terms of the one-step transition probabilities of the underlying Markov chains. Applications are made to Galton-Watson branching processes.     

Density estimation for a class of stationary nonlinear processes

Let {X _t ;t∈ℤ be a strictly stationary nonlinear process of the formX _t =ε _t +∑ _r=1 ^∞ W _rt , whereW _rt can be written as a functiong _r (ε _t−1,...ε _t-r-q ), {ε _t ;t∈ℤ is a sequence of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables withE|ε₁| ^g < ∞ for some γ>0 andq≥0 is fixed integer. Under certain mild regularity conditions ofg _r and {ε _t } we then show thatX ₁ has a density functionf and that the standard kernel type estimator baded on a realization {X ₁,...,X _n } from {X _t } is, asymptotically, normal and converges a.s. tof(x) asn→∞. The research of this author was partially carried out while he was a research scholar, on a sabbatical leave, at the Department of Statistics and Probability, Michigan State University.     

Waiting Time Problems in a Two-State Markov Chain

Let F ₀ be the event that l ₀ 0-runs of length k ₀ occur and F ₁ be the event that l ₁ 1-runs of length k ₁ occur in a two-state Markov chain. In this paper using a combinatorial method and the Markov chain imbedding method, we obtained explicit formulas of the probability generating functions of the sooner and later waiting time between F ₀ and F ₁ by the non-overlapping, overlapping and "greater than or equal" enumeration scheme. These formulas are convenient for evaluating the distributions of the sooner and later waiting time problems.     

On Number of Occurrences of Success Runs of Specified Length in a Higher-Order Two-State Markov Chain

Let X^-m+1, X^-m+2,..., X⁰, X¹, X²,..., Xⁿ be a time-homogeneous {0, 1}-valued m-th order Markov chain. The probability distributions of numbers of runs of "1" of length k (k m) and of "1" of length k (k < m) in the sequence of a {0, 1}-valued m-th order Markov chain are studied. There are some ways of counting numbers of runs with length k. This paper studies the distributions based on four ways of counting numbers of runs, i.e., the number of non-overlapping runs of length k, the number of runs with length greater than or equal to k, the number of overlapping runs of length k and the number of runs of length exactly k.     

On the Waiting Time for the First Success Run

Let k and m are positive integers with k ≥ m. The probability generating function of the waiting time for the first occurrence of consecutive k successes in a sequence of m-th order Markov dependent trials is given as a function of the conditional probability generating functions of the waiting time for the first occurrence of consecutive m successes. This provides an efficient algorithm for obtaining the probability generating function when k is large. In particular, in the case of independent trials a simple relationship between the geometric distribution of order k and the geometric distribution of order k−1 is obtained. This research was partially supported by the ISM Cooperative Research Program(2004-ISM-CRP-2006) and by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C) of the JSPI (Grant Number 16500183)     

A class of risk processes with reserve-dependent premium rate: sample path large deviations and importance sampling

Let (X(t)) be a risk process with reserve-dependent premium rate, delayed claims and initial capital u. Consider a class of risk processes {(X ^ε (t)): ε > 0} derived from (X(t)) via scaling in a slow Markov walk sense, and let Ψ_ε(u) be the corresponding ruin probability. In this paper we prove sample path large deviations for (X ε (t)) as ε → 0. As a consequence, we give exact asymptotics for log Ψ_ε(u) and we determine a most likely path leading to ruin. Finally, using importance sampling, we find an asymptotically efficient law for the simulation of Ψ_ε(u). AMS Subject Classifications 60F10, 91B30 This work has been partially supported by Murst Project “Metodi Stocastici in Finanza Matematica”     

On an extremal property of Markov chains and sufficiency of Markov strategies in Markov decision processes with the Dubins-Savage criterion

An inequality regarding the minimum ofP(lim inf(X _n D _n )) is proved for a class of random sequences. This result is related to the problem of sufficiency of Markov strategies for Markov decision processes with the Dubins-Savage criterion, the asymptotical behaviour of nonhomogeneous Markov chains, and some other problems.     

A generalized Pólya urn model and related multivariate distributions

In this paper, we study of Pólya urn model containing balls of (m+1) different labels under a general replacement scheme, which is characterized by an (m+1) × (m+1) addition matrix of integers without constraints on the values of these (m+1)² integers other than non-negativity. LetX ₁,X ₂,...,X _n be trials obtained by the Pólya urn scheme (with possible outcomes: “O”, “1”,...“m”). We consider the multivariate distributions of the numbers of occurrences of runs of different types arising from the various enumeration schemes and give a recursive formula of the probability generating function. Some closed form expressions are derived as special cases, which have potential applications to various areas. Our methods for the derivation of the multivariate run-related distribution are very simple and suitable for numerical and symbolic calculations by means of computer algebra systems. The results presented here develop a general workable framework for the study of Pólya urn models. Our attempts are very useful for understanding non-classic urn models. Finally, numerical examples are also given in order to illustrate the feasibility of our results. This research was partially supported by the ISM Cooperative Research Program (2003-ISM·CRP-2007).     

Joint Distributions of the Numbers of Visits for Finite-State Markov Chains

For a discrete-time Markov chain with finite state space {1, …, r} we consider the joint distribution of the numbers of visits in states 1, …, r−1 during the firstNsteps or before theNth visit tor. From the explicit expressions for the corresponding generating functions we obtain the limiting multivariate distributions asN→∞ when staterbecomes asymptotically absorbing and forj=1, …, r−1 the probability of a transition fromrtojis of order 1/N.     

The Exact and Limiting Distributions for the Number of Successes in Success Runs Within a Sequence of Markov-Dependent Two-State Trials

The total number of successes in success runs of length greater than or equal to k in a sequence of n two-state trials is a statistic that has been broadly used in statistics and probability. For Bernoulli trials with k equal to one, this statistic has been shown to have binomial and normal distributions as exact and limiting distributions, respectively. For the case of Markov-dependent two-state trials with k greater than one, its exact and limiting distributions have never been considered in the literature. In this article, the finite Markov chain imbedding technique and the invariance principle are used to obtain, in general, the exact and limiting distributions of this statistic under Markov dependence, respectively. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the theoretical results.     

On the existence of automorphisms with simple Lebesgue spectrum

It is shown that ifT is a measure preserving automorphism on a probability space (Ω,B, m) which admits a random variable X₀ with mean zero such that the stochastic sequence X₀ o T_n,n ε ℤ is orthonormal and spans L₀ ²(Ω,B,m), then for any integerk ≠ 0, the random variablesX o T^nk,n ε ℤ generateB modulom.     

Joint distributions of runs in a sequence of higher-order two-state Markov trials

Consider a time homogeneous {0, 1}-valued m-dependent Markov chain . In this paper, we study the joint probability distribution of number of 0-runs of length and number of 1-runs of length in n trials. We study the joint distributions based on five popular counting schemes of runs. The main tool used to obtain the probability generating function of the joint distribution is the conditional probability generating function method. Further a compact method for the evaluation of exact joint distribution is developed. For higher-order two-state Markov chain, these joint distributions are new in the literature of distributions of run statistics. We use these distributions to derive some waiting time distributions.