Pseudo-criteria versus linear utility function in stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis

Stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) is a multi-criteria decision support method for multiple decision-makers (DMs) in discrete problems. SMAA does not require explicit or implicit preference information from the DMs. Instead, the method is based on exploring the weight space in order to describe the valuations that would make each alternative the preferred one. Partial preference information can be represented in the weight space analysis through weight distributions. In this paper we compare two variants of the SMAA method using randomly generated test problems with 2–12 criteria and 4–12 alternatives. In the original SMAA, a utility or value function models the DMs' preference structure, and the inaccuracy or uncertainty of the criteria is represented by probability distributions. In SMAA-3, ELECTRE III-type pseudo-criteria are used instead. Both methods compute for each alternative an acceptability index measuring the variety of different valuations that supports this alternative, and a central weight vector representing the typical valuations resulting in this decision. We seek answers to three questions: (1) how similar are the results provided by the decision models, (2) what kind of systematic differences exists between the models, and (3) how could one select indifference and preference thresholds of the pseudo-criteria model to match a utility model with given probability distributions?     

A visual interactive approach for multiple criteria decision making with monotone utility functions

We consider the problem of choosing the best of a set of alternatives where each alternative is evaluated on multiple criteria. We develop a visual interactive approach assuming that the decision maker (DM) has a general monotone utility function. The approach partitions the criteria space into nonoverlapping cells. The DM uses various graphical aids to move between cells and to further manipulate selected cells with the goal of creating cells that have ideal points less preferred than an alternative. When the DM identifies such cells, all alternatives in those cells are eliminated from further consideration. The DM may also compare pairs of alternatives. The approach terminates with the most preferred alternative of the DM.     

考虑决策者心理行为的证券投资组合决策方法研究

在现实的证券投资组合决策中,决策者的心理行为是不可忽视的重要因素。本文针对考虑决策者心理行为的证券投资组合问题,给出了一种基于累积前景理论和心理账户的决策分析方法。首先,依据累积前景理论,将决策者对不同市场状态下的预期收益率作为参考点,计算各备选证券收益率相对于参照点的收益和损失,并计算不同市场状态下针对所有备选证券的综合前景价值;然后,依据决策者的心理账户,即以证券投资组合的收益总体综合前景价值最大为目标、以投资期末总财富阈值以及满足财富约束的概率不小于决策者设定的概率阈值为约束,构建了具有概率约束条件的证券投资组合优化模型,通过将概率约束转化为线性约束并求解优化模型,可得到最优的证券投资组合方案。最后,通过一个算例对本文提出方法的可行性和有效性进行了验证。研究结果表明,本文提出的方法能够较好地解决考虑决策者心理行为的证券投资组合问题。     

An Interactive Approach for Choosing the Best of a Set of Alternatives

In this paper we address the problem of choosing the most preferred alternative among a large number of alternatives where each alternative is defined by multiple criteria. We assume that the decision maker has a quasiconcave utility function. We develop an exact approach that combines the ideas that have appeared in the literature regarding the use of different types of dummy alternatives in conjunction with real alternatives. Our experimental results indicate that the new approach is comparable to leading existing approaches.     

Extension of the VIKOR method for group decision making with interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy information

The aim of this paper is to extend the VIKOR method for multiple attribute group decision making in interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment, in which all the preference information provided by the decision-makers is presented as interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrices where each of the elements is characterized by interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number, and the information about attribute weights is partially known, which is an important research field in decision science and operation research. First, we use the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid geometric operator to aggregate all individual interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrices provided by the decision-makers into the collective interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrix, and then we use the score function to calculate the score of each attribute value and construct the score matrix of the collective interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrix. From the score matrix and the given attribute weight information, we establish an optimization model to determine the weights of attributes, and then determine the interval-valued intuitionistic positive-ideal solution and interval-valued intuitionistic negative-ideal solution. We use the different distances to calculate the particular measure of closeness of each alternative to the interval-valued intuitionistic positive-ideal solution. According to values of the particular measure, we rank the alternatives and then select the most desirable one(s). Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the applicability of the proposed approach.     

A Structural Mapping Approach to Complex Decision-Making

Different methods currently available for multiple criteria decision analysis, such as cost-benefit analysis and utility theory, make strong axiomatic demands. The method suggested here uses multidimensional scaling techniques, as applied to the problem of constructing geographical maps from fragmentary information, to draw maps of policies involving many attributes in such a way as to throw most preferred and least preferred policies to opposite poles. The only axiomatic demand is non-transitive indifference. An analysis suggests that the method is robust against changes in the input data.     

UTA-poly and UTA-splines: Additive value functions with polynomial marginals

Additive utility function models are widely used in multiple criteria decision analysis. In such models, a numerical value is associated to each alternative involved in the decision problem. It is computed by aggregating the scores of the alternative on the different criteria of the decision problem. The score of an alternative is determined by a marginal value function that evolves monotonically as a function of the performance of the alternative on this criterion. Determining the shape of the marginals is not easy for a decision maker. It is easier for him/her to make statements such as “alternative a is preferred to b”. In order to help the decision maker, UTA disaggregation procedures use linear programming to approximate the marginals by piecewise linear functions based only on such statements. In this paper, we propose to infer polynomials and splines instead of piecewise linear functions for the marginals. In this aim, we use semidefinite programming instead of linear programming. We illustrate this new elicitation method and present some experimental results.     

Extension of the TOPSIS method for decision making problems under interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment

TOPSIS is one of the well-known methods for multiple attribute decision making (MADM). In this paper, we extend the TOPSIS method to solve multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) problems in interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment in which all the preference information provided by the decision-makers is presented as interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrices where each of the elements is characterized by interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number (IVIFNs), and the information about attribute weights is partially known. First, we use the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid geometric (IIFHG) operator to aggregate all individual interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrices provided by the decision-makers into the collective interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrix, and then we use the score function to calculate the score of each attribute value and construct the score matrix of the collective interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrix. From the score matrix and the given attribute weight information, we establish an optimization model to determine the weights of attributes, and construct the weighted collective interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy decision matrix, and then determine the interval-valued intuitionistic positive-ideal solution and interval-valued intuitionistic negative-ideal solution. Based on different distance definitions, we calculate the relative closeness of each alternative to the interval-valued intuitionistic positive-ideal solution and rank the alternatives according to the relative closeness to the interval-valued intuitionistic positive-ideal solution and select the most desirable one(s). Finally, an example is used to illustrate the applicability of the proposed approach.     

考虑决策者给出部分属性期望的风险型多属性决策方法

针对决策者给出部分属性期望的风险型多属性决策问题,提出了一种决策分析方法。在该方法中,首先,依据决策者在各自然状态下给出的属性期望信息,将原始决策问题转化为没有属性期望和具有属性期望的两个独立的风险型多属性决策问题;然后,针对没有属性期望的风险型多属性决策问题,依据期望效用理论,计算各属性下属性值所对应的效用值,进而得到每个方案的综合效用值;进一步地,针对具有属性期望的风险型多属性决策问题,依据累积前景理论,将决策者给出的属性期望视为属性的参照点,进而计算各属性值的前景价值及决策权重函数值并计算每个方案的综合累积前景值;在此基础上,计算得到每个方案的总体效用值,并依据总体效用值的大小对所有方案进行排序。最后,通过一个算例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

Interactive procedure for a multiobjective stochastic discrete dynamic problem

Multiple objectives and dynamics characterize many sequential decision problems. In the paper we consider returns in partially ordered criteria space as a way of generalization of single criterion dynamic programming models to multiobjective case. In our problem evaluations of alternatives with respect to criteria are represented by distribution functions. Thus, the overall comparison of two alternatives is equivalent to the comparison of two vectors of probability distributions. We assume that the decision maker tries to find a solution preferred to all other solutions (the most preferred solution). In the paper a new interactive procedure for stochastic, dynamic multiple criteria decision making problem is proposed. The procedure consists of two steps. First, the Bellman principle is used to identify the set of efficient solutions. Next interactive approach is employed to find the most preferred solution. A numerical example and a real-world application are presented to illustrate the applicability of the proposed technique.     

Implementing stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis

Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) is a family of methods for aiding multicriteria group decision making in problems with inaccurate, uncertain, or missing information. These methods are based on exploring the weight space in order to describe the preferences that make each alternative the most preferred one, or that would give a certain rank for a specific alternative. The main results of the analysis are rank acceptability indices, central weight vectors and confidence factors for different alternatives. The rank acceptability indices describe the variety of different preferences resulting in a certain rank for an alternative, the central weight vectors represent the typical preferences favouring each alternative, and the confidence factors measure whether the criteria measurements are sufficiently accurate for making an informed decision.     

An interactive method for multiple criteria group decision analysis based on interval type-2 fuzzy sets and its application to medical decision making

The theory of interval type-2 fuzzy sets provides an intuitive and computationally feasible way of addressing uncertain and ambiguous information in decision-making fields. The aim of this paper is to develop an interactive method for handling multiple criteria group decision-making problems, in which information about criterion weights is incompletely (imprecisely or partially) known and the criterion values are expressed as interval type-2 trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. With respect to the relative importance of multiple decision-makers and group consensus of fuzzy opinions, a hybrid averaging approach combining weighted averages and ordered weighted averages was employed to construct the collective decision matrix. An integrated programming model was then established based on the concept of signed distance-based closeness coefficients to determine the importance weights of criteria and the priority ranking of alternatives. Subsequently, an interactive procedure was proposed to modify the model according to the decision-makers’ feedback on the degree of satisfaction toward undesirable solution results for the sake of gradually improving the integrated model. The feasibility and applicability of the proposed methods are illustrated with a medical decision-making problem of patient-centered medicine concerning basilar artery occlusion. A comparative analysis with other approaches was performed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.     

Multivariate Gaussian criteria in SMAA

We consider stochastic multicriteria decision-making problems with multiple decision makers. In such problems, the uncertainty or inaccuracy of the criteria measurements and the partial or missing preference information can be represented through probability distributions. In many real-life problems the uncertainties of criteria measurements may be dependent. However, it is often difficult to quantify these dependencies. Also, most of the existing methods are unable to handle such dependency information.In this paper, we develop a method for handling dependent uncertainties in stochastic multicriteria group decision-making problems. We measure the criteria, their uncertainties and dependencies using a stochastic simulation model. The model is based on decision variables and stochastic parameters with given distributions. Based on the simulation results, we determine for the criteria measurements a joint probability distribution that quantifies the uncertainties and their dependencies. We then use the SMAA-2 stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis method for comparing the alternatives based on the criteria distributions. We demonstrate the use of the method in the context of a strategic decision support model for a retailer operating in the liberated European electricity market.     

An integrated multiple criteria decision making model applying axiomatic fuzzy set theory

This article presents a hybrid model for the multiple criteria decision making problems. The proposed decision model consists of three parts: (i) DEA (data envelopment analysis) is used to provide the best combination on the performance parameters of original data; (ii) By the application of AFS (axiomatic fuzzy set) theory and AHP (analytic hierarchy process) method, the weight of each attribute is calculated and (iii) TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution) is applied to provide the ranking order of that best combination based on the weights of attributes. In addition, we also provide the definitely semantic interpretations for the decision results by AFS theory. Specially, the model not only employs the performance parameters from raw data, but also considers the preferences from decision-makers that can make the decision results more reasonable. The proposed model is used for robot selection to verify the proposed model. Using the selection index, the evaluation of alternative robots and the selection of the most appropriate are eventually feasible. Moreover, a numerical example for supplier selection is included to illustrate the application of the model for the newly developed problems.     

Classifying efficient alternatives in SMAA using cross confidence factors

Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) is a family of methods for aiding multicriteria group decision making. These methods are based on exploring the weight space in order to describe the preferences that make each alternative the most preferred one. The main results of the analysis are rank acceptability indices, central weight vectors and confidence factors for different alternatives. The rank acceptability indices describe the variety of different preferences resulting in a certain rank for an alternative; the central weight vectors represent the typical preferences favouring each alternative; and the confidence factors measure whether the criteria data are sufficiently accurate for making an informed decision.In some cases, when the problem involves a large number of efficient alternatives, the analysis may fail to discriminate between them. This situation is revealed by low confidence factors. In this paper we develop cross confidence factors, which are based on computing confidence factors for alternatives using each other’s central weight vectors. The cross confidence factors can be used for classifying efficient alternatives into sets of similar and competing alternatives. These sets are related to the concept of reference sets in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), but generalized for stochastic models. Forming these sets is useful when trying to identify one or more most preferred alternatives, or suitable compromise alternatives. The reference sets can also be used for evaluating whether criteria need to be measured more accurately, and at which alternatives the measurements should be focused. This may cause considerable savings in measurement costs. We demonstrate the use of the cross confidence factors and reference sets using a real-life example.     

Adapting and refining in multi-criteria decision-making

This paper describes the implementation of a Structured Methodology for Direct-Interactive Structured-Criteria (DISC) Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM), an eight-stage nomological adjusting cycle of activities that shape the information used to make a decision, requiring it be accessible, differentiable, abstractable, understandable, verifiable, measurable, refinable and usable. It shows, in a major IT strategic investment case, that Structured DISC MCDM provides a robust model that can be used for deep and serious consideration of multi-criteria decisions by a group of decision-makers over a long period. The paper describes the case as it moves through stages of the adjusting cycle and shows that, after completing the cycle, it reverses and becomes an adapting process, starting with refining the information. Refining is shown to be more extensive than previously understood, and to cover ‘alternatives & scores’, ‘criteria & weights’ and ‘set of alternatives’. Next the form of measurement is adapted. As the number of alternatives are reduced it can become more appropriate to directly compare the two or three most preferred alternatives relative to one another rather than objectively. Finally the criteria tree can be adapted using a ‘magnifying glass’ approach. This confines the evaluation to that part of the criteria tree in which the difference between a few preferred alternatives is mainly emphasised.     

Decision-aid for discrete multiple criteria decision making problems with imprecise data

We describe ways of aiding decision making with a discrete set of alternatives. In many decision situations, it is not possible to obtain explicit preference information from the decision makers. Instead, useful decision-aid can be provided to the decision makers by describing what kind of weighting of the criteria result in certain choices of the alternatives. The suggested treatment is based on the basic ideas of the ELECTRE III method. The modelling of the preferences by pseudo-criteria is especially helpful in case the data, that is, the criterion values are imprecise. Unlike ELECTRE III, no ranking of the alternatives is produced. Based on a minimum-procedure in the exploitation of the outranking relations, we provide information about the weights of the criteria that make a certain alternative the best. We also present an interactive searching procedure in the weighting space. The auxiliary optimization problems to be solved are nondifferentiable. Cases with both single and multiple decision makers are considered.     

Finding the most preferred alliance structure between banks and insurance companies

In this paper we have studied alternative alliances between banks and insurance companies. First we defined six different possible structure models for such alliances, and nine criteria used to evaluate the models. The models and the criteria were introduced together with bank and insurance experts. The experts are representatives of the top management of Finnish banks and insurance companies. Searching for the most preferred alliance model is a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problem. To solve the problem, we used an expert panel and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Based on the evaluations of the panel, the alternatives Financial Conglomerate and Cross-Selling Agreement, no Overlapping Service Channels are most preferred. Which one is chosen, depends on how risk is emphasized.     

基于累积前景理论的考虑群体参考点的多指标风险决策方法

针对考虑多个决策者给出不同的指标期望的多指标风险决策问题,提出一种基于累积前景理论的决策分析方法。在本文中,将决策者给出的指标期望视为参照点,通过构建基于参照点的价值矩阵和权重矩阵,进而构建前景决策矩阵,并基于前景决策矩阵来计算每个方案的综合前景值,然后依据综合前景值的大小对所有方案进行排序。最后,通过一个算例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。