O.R. Education and Developing Economies with Special Reference to India

The paper reviews the current state of application of O.R. in general and in developed economies in particular. It then analyses the causes for unsatisfactory application of O.R. in developing economies. Based on the analysis, the paper proceeds to review the existing O.R. education and training and develops an integrated design of O.R. education and training for developing economies. The paper outlines the role that international agencies should play in implementing the proposed scheme of O.R. education and training for developing economies.     

A Teachers' Network for Third World O.R.

The progress of O.R. in developing countries has been hampered by the lack of appropriate educational materials. A contribution has been made with the writing of a book of case exercises. Several teachers in different countries have tried the book with a variety of students. The feedback has been encouraging. Initiatives are being taken, supported by IFORS, to build a wider network of teachers of O.R. for developing countries.     

O.R. Applications in Industry and Problems of Industrialisation of a Developing Economy with Special Reference to India

The paper has two distinct parts. The first part reviews industrial applications of O.R. in developing countries in general and India in particular. Based on the analysis, the paper suggests concrete steps for further use of operational research in industry.The second part of the paper deals critically with the problems of industrialisation leading to a specific industrial structure in the economy of a developing country. Analysing various relevant criteria for industrialisation of developing economies the paper outlines a methodology suitable for modelling the problem. It then attempts to identify the prerequisites for successful use of O.R. in the multicriteria problem of industrialisation. The paper also discusses the role that national and international agencies can play in bringing about more meaningful applications of O.R. in developing economies.     

The Prospect for O.R. in the Nigerian Government Service—An Administrators' Viewpoint

The paper reports the results of interviews with senior government administrators in Nigeria in which they were asked a range of questions about their own work and about the problems that are likely to be encountered in trying to introduce operational research into the government service. It is thus in contrast with most papers on O.R. in developing countries, which are written primarily from the viewpoint of practitioners. The administrators confirmed that there was a wide range of problems recognized as being suitable for the O.R. approach, and identified some of the barriers to the introduction of an effective O.R. service.     

Mathematical programming in subsistence agriculture

This paper examines the use of mathematical programming models in subsistence agriculture as an example of the use of operational research in developing countries. Differences from developed agriculture are described, and five mathematical programming formulations to cater for the major differences are given. Examples of the use of such models in published literature to produce policy oriented conclusions are summarised. This exemplified a more general point that mathematical O.R. formulations are relevant to policy issues in developing countries providing they are modifications of formulations used in developed countries.     

Operational Research and Socioeconomic Development

This paper discusses the relationship between the type of operational research current in economically developed countries and that applicable to countries in the developing world and concludes that the direct transfer of O.R. from the former to the latter is not as beneficial as is normally assumed.     

Experiences with Using Expert Systems in O.R.

Increased awareness of expert systems technology, and the availability of relevant software, has tempted many O.R. groups to investigate the expert systems approach. This paper considers the strategies open to O.R. groups interested in employing expert systems, reviews some of the relevant software, and discusses what those O.R. groups who have already investigated the use of expert systems methods are actually doing.Some of the authors' experience of developing expert systems is discussed. The development of an expert system that helps bankers analyse company accounts is presented. The use of expert system methods as vehicles for decision analysis, and the possibilities for producing systems that act as O.R. consultants are also discussed.     

O.R. Education — A Survey of Young O.R. Workers

This paper presents the results of a survey into O.R. education that was conducted with the help of those attending the Young O.R. Conference (YOR II) held at Nottingham University in March 1982. The results of a workshop debate held at the conference into the direction of O.R. education are also discussed.The conclusions drawn are that O.R. education in this country appears to be quite successful but that it is failing to deal satisfactorily with a number of issues. These issues relate to keeping up-to-date with changes in computer technology and their impact upon O.R. workers; the teaching of methodology to deal with ill-defined problems; preparation for the political and working environment of organizations; and the fostering of desirable personal characteristics.     

Lessons for O.R. from the World of Banking

This paper will be of interest to the reader concerned with O.R. in banking and to the more general reader concerned with the successful development of O.R. The paper describes and analyses the complex historical development of the O.R. Group in the National Westminster Bank, which, since 1966, has grown into one of the leading O.R. groups in finance. As well as providing a new and original documentation of the type of problem areas and approaches that have been examined in the relatively short history of O.R. in banking, the paper draws on the experience of O.R. at NatWest and that of other O.R. groups in other European banks in order to identify the factors which determine whether or not an O.R. group will develop successfully.     

Lessons for O.R. from A.I.: A Scheduling Case Study

This paper compares operational research (O.R.) with the currently fashionable topic of artificial intelligence (A.I.) at a detailed level. A.I. concepts, techniques and history are summarized, and O.R. and A.I. approaches compared. A case study-the development of a potential aid to scheduling repair jobs on RAF squadrons—is described. The paper shows where A.I. concepts and techniques were used in the prototype program, known as the Fault Identification & Expediting Repair (FIXER) system. Finally, some lessons for O.R. are drawn.     

How Relevant is Operational Research to Development? The Case of Kenyan Industry

This paper proposes that the debate over O.R.'s role in development can be advanced by looking at a specific industrial environment. The Kenyan example suggests that for O.R. to make a contribution to this developing society it must: first, be defined as broadly as possible so as to include the most basic problem-solving techniques, and second, contribute to the diffusing of these techniques throughout the economy. O.R. should be viewed less as the province of an elite group of specialists— and more as a common resource available to managers at any level of industry. O.R. educators in developing nations can "democratise" quantitative techniques by incorporating them into such traditional business disciplines as accounting, marketing, and production. These courses should stress problem-solving and rely on cases drawn from local experiences. The paper ends by describing a pilot project, the Case Research and Documentation Centre, which is designed to promote more pragmatic management education and research in Kenya.     

Quantitative Forecasting—the State of the Art: Econometric Models

Econometric model building for forecasting has developed substantially over the past 15 years. Nevertheless, operational researchers have neglected these new developments. This paper defines nine stages the forecaster must go through when developing an econometric model. Each stage is discussed with reference to the most recent research. The complexity of econometric model building requires the forecaster to adopt a modelling strategy. Two have been proposed in the literature; one moves from a specific model to a more general version, the second goes from the general to the specific. Five recent O.R. studies using econometric methodology are then evaluated, highlighting the common areas of weakness. They are those areas that econometricians have paid most attention to in their recent research. The paper then surveys the effectiveness of econometric models compared to alternative approaches, concluding with some recommendations to the O.R. worker in forecasting. In particular, it recommends that more attempts are made to develop econometric models for O.R. applications.     

The Changing Role of O.R.

The authors set out to consider the activities of their own O.R. group at British Airways in the light of Russ Ackoff's papers delivered at the 1978 ORS Conference, but the paper has developed into a discussion of Ackoff's ideas from the viewpoint of an in-house industrial O.R. group that has had considerable success in implementation and has thought a great deal about what it is trying to do. Particularly relevant is the emphasis placed by this O.R. group on highly interactive planning models and systems and on an evolutionary approach to development. Some attempt is made to put Ackoff's ideas into an historical perspective and his main points are discussed one by one. The authors are in sympathy with the direction Ackoff is pressing, but not with the gloom his paper has generated in some quarters.     

Systems Analysis for Efficient Allocations,Optimal Use of Resources and Appropriate Technology: Some Applications

A systems analytic approach, in which one tries systematically to examine a variety of considerations together rather than in parts, is essential whenever neglect of the interactions of the parts of the system might lead to erroneous conclusions. The O.R. attitude is even more important for developing countries, where the problems are many and solutions are much more severely constrained than in developed countries owing to resource limitation, scarcity of skills, inadequate technological and managerial infrastructure to support sophisticated solutions, and the variety of traditional and ‘modern’ attitudes prevailing in developing societies. To illustrate this, a number of applications carried out by the author in India, covering efficient resource allocation for economic planning, optimal use of resources, such as water and fertilizer, and the choice of techniques of power systems, as well as organizational problems of identification and introduction of appropriate technology in building construction and community bio-gas plants, are briefly described along with comments on the implementation of the results.     

Corporate Planning and Its Use of O.R. in the N.C.B.: A Personal View

Moving from Operational Research to Corporate Planning within one organisation is a rather modest change, which nevertheless leads to a different perspective. While still an advisory function, Corporate Planning, to be successful, has to maintain itself at the centre of a `messy' system tackling `messy' problems. Holding on to a clear strategy in such circumstances is not only difficult but vital. The success of the strategy depends on its robustness and ability to adapt to new circumstances. Recent debates in the O.R. literature have focused on the importance of robustness and the nature of uncertainty using the paradigms of rational and bureaucratic processes. This is a useful perspective from which to view our activities and the relative roles of Operational Research and Corporate Planning, either separately or together. The term `mature' O.R. is used to differentiate research that has been built up over many years in the N.C.B. from the problem solving activity often used to characterise O.R. The challenge is to prevent maturity developing into old age.     

Refocusing upstream: Operational Research for population health

This paper examines the potential for the application of OR methods to ‘upstream’ problems in health sector planning. These address the underlying causes of ill health, and stand in contrast to ‘downstream’ health service planning which addresses the consequences of ill health. The paper reviews the emergence, globally and locally, of recognition of the importance of upstream planning and policy formation for the health sectors of both developed and developing countries. It presents examples of the use of OR techniques in upstream health planning, with particular illustrations taken from the area of health impact assessment. It argues for a fuller appreciation of the potential contribution of OR in this and in other areas of upstream health sector planning.     

Introducing the Microcomputer into the O.R. Department

This paper reviews the typical main-frame computer services that are currently available and by accepting the alleged advantages of microcomputers postulates the ideal computing requirements of O.R. departments. Experience of microcomputers in O.R. departments, within the N.C.B. and elsewhere, is considered in relation to these ideal requirements. It is concluded that although some main-frame computer services will remain essential to O.R. and accepting that the main-frame can give a reasonable general computing service, the micro offers additional advantages. These include: lower cost and/or better service, the ability to configure the equipment exactly to meet O.R. needs; full control over applications and priorities; and portability - which means that computing power can now be taken direct to the manager by the O.R. department.     

Problems,Processes and Purposes: The Systems Approach to O.R.

The aim of this paper is to argue that O.R. should get more involved in a systems approach to support the processes of decision making within organizations. To do this effectively, more research is needed, and some suggestions are made to shift the emphasis of research within the O.R. community. The shift should occur both at the fundamental level of major research efforts and in the styles of project sought within M.Sc. courses. If the practice of systems O.R. is to develop, then it is time that a theoretical basis is developed.     

Assessing bank efficiency and performance with operational research and artificial intelligence techniques: A survey

This paper presents a comprehensive review of 196 studies which employ operational research (O.R.) and artificial intelligence (A.I.) techniques in the assessment of bank performance. Several key issues in the literature are highlighted. The paper also points to a number of directions for future research. We first discuss numerous applications of data envelopment analysis which is the most widely applied O.R. technique in the field. Then we discuss applications of other techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines, and multicriteria decision aid that have also been used in recent years, in bank failure prediction studies and the assessment of bank creditworthiness and underperformance.