Deterministic factors of stock networks based on cross-correlation in financial market

The stock market has been known to form homogeneous stock groups with a higher correlation among different stocks according to common economic factors that influence individual stocks. We investigate the role of common economic factors in the market in the formation of stock networks, using the arbitrage pricing model reflecting essential properties of common economic factors. We find that the degree of consistency between real and model stock networks increases as additional common economic factors are incorporated into our model. Furthermore, we find that individual stocks with a large number of links to other stocks in a network are more highly correlated with common economic factors than those with a small number of links. This suggests that common economic factors in the stock market can be understood in terms of deterministic factors.     

Time-varying Hurst exponent for US stock markets

In this work, the dynamical behavior of the US stock markets is characterized on the basis of the temporal variations of the Hurst exponent estimated with detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) over moving windows for the historical Dow Jones (1928-2007) and the S&P-500 (1950-2007) daily indices. According to the results drawn: (i) the Hurst exponent displays an erratic dynamics with some episodes alternating low and high persistent behavior, (ii) the major breakthrough of the long-term trend of the scaling behavior occurred in 1972, at the end of the Bretton Woods system, when the Hurst exponent shifted form a positive to a negative long-term trend. Other effects, such as the 1987 crisis and the emergence of anti-correlated behavior in the recent two years, are also discussed.     

Topological properties of stock networks based on minimal spanning tree and random matrix theory in financial time series

We investigated the topological properties of stock networks constructed by a minimal spanning tree. We compared the original stock network with the estimated network; the original network is obtained by the actual stock returns, while the estimated network is the correlation matrix created by random matrix theory. We found that the consistency between the two networks increases as more eigenvalues are considered. In addition, we suggested that the largest eigenvalue has a significant influence on the formation of stock networks.     

Network analysis of an online community

We empirically study various network properties of an online community. The numbers of articles written by each user to the bulletin boards of each of the others are used to construct the directed and weighted network B, and gifting behaviors among users are also kept track of, to build the network G which is again directed and weighted. Detailed analysis reveals that B and G have very different network properties. In particular, whereas B contains many more bidirectional links than directed arcs, G shows the opposite characteristic. The number of writings on bulletin boards is found to decay with the distance from the hub vertex, which reflects the structural assortativeness in B. We also observe that the activities in writings and purchases are negatively correlated with each other for highly active users in B.     

Network effects in a human capital based economic growth model

We revisit a recently introduced agent model [ACS, 11, 99 (2008)], where economic growth is a consequence of education (human capital formation) and innovation, and investigate the influence of the agents’ social network, both on an agent’s decision to pursue education and on the output of new ideas. Regular and random networks are considered. The results are compared with the predictions of a mean field (representative agent) model.     

Spectral methods and cluster structure in correlation-based networks

We investigate how in complex systems the eigenpairs of the matrices derived from the correlations of multichannel observations reflect the cluster structure of the underlying networks. For this we use daily return data from the NYSE and focus specifically on the spectral properties of weight W_ij=|C|_ij−δ_ij and diffusion matrices D_ij=W_ij/s_j−δ_ij, where C_ij is the correlation matrix and s_i=∑_jW_ij the strength of node j. The eigenvalues (and corresponding eigenvectors) of the weight matrix are ranked in descending order. As in the earlier observations, the first eigenvector stands for a measure of the market correlations. Its components are, to first approximation, equal to the strengths of the nodes and there is a second order, roughly linear, correction. The high ranking eigenvectors, excluding the highest ranking one, are usually assigned to market sectors and industrial branches. Our study shows that both for weight and diffusion matrices the eigenpair analysis is not capable of easily deducing the cluster structure of the network without a priori knowledge. In addition we have studied the clustering of stocks using the asset graph approach with and without spectrum based noise filtering. It turns out that asset graphs are quite insensitive to noise and there is no sharp percolation transition as a function of the ratio of bonds included, thus no natural threshold value for that ratio seems to exist. We suggest that these observations can be of use for other correlation based networks as well.     

Multifractal properties of the Indian financial market

We investigate the multifractal properties of the logarithmic returns of the Indian financial indices (BSE & NSE) by applying the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. The results are compared with that of the US S&P 500 index. Numerically we find that qth-order generalized Hurst exponents h(q) and τ(q) change with the moments q. The nonlinear dependence of these scaling exponents and the singularity spectrum f(α) show that the returns possess multifractality. By comparing the MF-DFA results of the original series to those for the shuffled series, we find that the multifractality is due to the contributions of long-range correlations as well as the broad probability density function. The financial markets studied here are compared with the Binomial Multifractal Model (BMFM) and have a smaller multifractal strength than the BMFM.     

Time and scale Hurst exponent analysis for financial markets

We use a new method of studying the Hurst exponent with time and scale dependency. This new approach allows us to recover the major events affecting worldwide markets (such as the September 11th terrorist attack) and analyze the way those effects propagate through the different scales. The time-scale dependence of the referred measures demonstrates the relevance of entropy measures in distinguishing the several characteristics of market indices: “effects” include early awareness, patterns of evolution as well as comparative behaviour distinctions in emergent/established markets.     

Feedback and efficiency in limit order markets

A consistency criterion for price impact functions in limit order markets is proposed that prohibits chain arbitrage exploitation. Both the bid-ask spread and the feedback of sequential market orders of the same kind onto both sides of the order book are essential to ensure consistency at the smallest time scale. All the stocks investigated in Paris Stock Exchange have consistent price impact functions.     

On entropy, financial markets and minority games

The paper builds upon an earlier statistical analysis of financial time series with Shannon information entropy, published in [L. Molgedey, W. Ebeling, Local order, entropy and predictability of financial time series, European Physical Journal B—Condensed Matter and Complex Systems 15/4 (2000) 733-737]. A novel generic procedure is proposed for making multistep-ahead predictions of time series by building a statistical model of entropy. The approach is first demonstrated on the chaotic Mackey-Glass time series and later applied to Japanese Yen/US dollar intraday currency data. The paper also reinterprets Minority Games [E. Moro, The minority game: An introductory guide, Advances in Condensed Matter and Statistical Physics (2004)] within the context of physical entropy, and uses models derived from minority game theory as a tool for measuring the entropy of a model in response to time series. This entropy conditional upon a model is subsequently used in place of information-theoretic entropy in the proposed multistep prediction algorithm.     

Playing the hypothesis testing minority game in the maximal reduced strategy space

Hypothesis Testing Minority Game (HMG) is a variant of the standard Minority Game (MG) that models the inertial behavior of agents in the market. In the earlier study of our group, we find that agents cooperate better in HMG than in the standard MG when strategies are picked from the full strategy space. Here we continue to study the behavior of HMG when strategies are chosen from the maximal reduced strategy space. Surprisingly, we find that, unlike the standard MG, the level of cooperation in HMG depends strongly on the strategy space used. In addition, a novel intermittency dynamics is also observed in the minority choice time series in a certain parameter range in which the orderly phases are characterized by a variety of periodic dynamics. Remarkably, all these findings can be explained by the crowd-anticrowd theory.     

A multifractal approach for stock market inefficiency

In this paper, the multifractality degree in a collection of developed and emerging stock market indices is evaluated. Empirical results suggest that the multifractality degree can be used as a quantifier to characterize the stage of market development of world stock indices. We develop a model to test the relationship between the stage of market development and the multifractality degree and find robust evidence that the relationship is negative, i.e., higher multifractality is associated with a less developed market. Thus, an inefficiency ranking can be derived from multifractal analysis. Finally, a link with previous volatility time series results is established.     

The Lévy sections theorem: An application to econophysics

We employ the Lévy sections theorem in the analysis of selected dollar exchange rate time series. The theorem is an extension of the classical central limit theorem and offers an alternative to the most usual analysis of the sum variable. We find that the presence of fat tails can be related to the local volatility pattern of the series.     

Empirical regularities of opening call auction in Chinese stock market

We study the statistical regularities of an opening call auction using the ultra-high-frequency data of 22 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003. The distribution of the relative price, defined as the relative difference between the order price in the opening call auction and the closing price on the last trading day, is asymmetric and that the distribution displays a sharp peak at the zero relative price and a relatively wide peak at the negative relative price. The detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method is adopted to investigate the long-term memory of relative order prices. We further study the statistical regularities of order sizes in the opening call auction, and observe a phenomenon of number preference, known as order size clustering. The probability density function (PDF) of order sizes could be well fitted by a q-Gamma function, and the long-term memory also exists in order sizes. In addition, both the average volume and the average number of orders decrease exponentially with the price level away from the best bid or ask price level in the limit-order book (LOB) established immediately after the opening call auction, and a price clustering phenomenon is observed.     

Empirical regularities of order placement in the Chinese stock market

Using ultra-high-frequency data extracted from the order flows of 23 stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, we study the empirical regularities of order placement in the opening call auction, cool period and continuous auction. The distributions of relative logarithmic prices against reference prices in the three time periods are qualitatively the same with quantitative discrepancies. The order placement behavior is asymmetric between buyers and sellers and between the inside-the-book orders and outside-the-book orders. In addition, the conditional distributions of relative prices in the continuous auction are independent of the bid-ask spread and volatility. These findings are crucial to build an empirical behavioral microscopic model based on order flows for Chinese stocks.     

Peculiar statistical properties of Chinese stock indices in bull and bear market phases

Chinese stock markets have experienced an extraordinary bull market since Jan 2006, which attracted global eyes. We investigate the statistical properties of the indices’ log-return r(t) for the bull market (Jan 2006-Oct 2007) and the previous bear market (Jan 2001-Dec 2005). Here we report three peculiar features of r(t): (i) the cumulative distribution function curve of r(t) in the bull market is similar to that in the bear market; (ii) the autocorrelation function of r(t) in the bull market has a stronger negative correlation and a shorter correlation time than that in the bear market; (iii) the bull market shows stronger long-term correlation than the bear market. This work has relevance to understanding novel statistical properties in economic systems.     

Wavelet multiscale analysis for Hedge Funds: Scaling and strategies

The wide acceptance of Hedge Funds by Institutional Investors and Pension Funds has led to an explosive growth in assets under management. These investors are drawn to Hedge Funds due to the seemingly low correlation with traditional investments and the attractive returns. The correlations and market risk (the Beta in the Capital Asset Pricing Model) of Hedge Funds are generally calculated using monthly returns data, which may produce misleading results as Hedge Funds often hold illiquid exchange-traded securities or difficult to price over-the-counter securities. In this paper, the Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) is applied to measure the scaling properties of Hedge Fund correlation and market risk with respect to the S&P 500. It is found that the level of correlation and market risk varies greatly according to the strategy studied and the time scale examined. Finally, the effects of scaling properties on the risk profile of a portfolio made up of Hedge Funds is studied using correlation matrices calculated over different time horizons.     

Correlations in commodity markets

In this paper we analyzed dependencies in commodity markets, investigating correlations of future contracts for commodities over the period 1998.09.01-2007.12.14. We constructed a minimal spanning tree based on the correlation matrix. The tree provides evidence for sector clusterization of investigated contracts. We also studied dynamical properties of commodity dependencies. It turned out that the market was constantly getting more correlated within the investigated period, although the increase of correlation was distributed non-uniformly among all contracts, and depended on contracts branches.     

Statistical properties of world investment networks

We have performed a detailed investigation on the world investment networks constructed from the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) data of the International Monetary Fund, ranging from 2001 to 2006. The distributions of degrees and node strengths are scale-free. The weight distributions can be well modeled by the Weibull distribution. The maximum flow spanning trees of the world investment networks possess two universal allometric scaling relations, independent of time and the investment type. The topological scaling exponent is 1.17±0.02 and the flow scaling exponent is 1.03±0.01.