股票定向增发、盈余管理与公司的业绩滑坡——基于应计项目操控与真实活动操控方式下的研究

本文采用了应计项目操控与真实活动操控两种模型研究了我国上市公司定向增发新股过程中盈余管理行为以及之后的业绩表现,结果发现:中国上市公司在定向增发过程中会同时使用应计项目操控与真实活动操控两种盈余管理方式;进一步研究发现应计项目盈余管理会导致上市公司定向增发后业绩的短期滑坡,真实活动盈余管理会引起公司业绩的长期滑坡,真实活动盈余管理是上市公司定向增发之后业绩滑坡的主要原因。     

超额控制权与企业现金持有——基于家族创始人控制的调节效应

本文基于代理成本理论、动态权衡理论,选取2007年~2017年中国沪、深A 股家族上市公司数据,实证检验了家族企业超额控制权对现金持有水平的内在影响。研究结论显示:(1)家族超额控制权与现金持有水平显著正相关;(2)而家族创始人控制能够有效的抑制家族超额控制权对现金持有水平的影响。在控制了超额控制权的影响之后,进一步研究发现:(3)与非创始控制家族相比,创始家族的现金持有水平显著低于非创始家族。本文的研究结论不仅在微观治理层面,进一步证实了家族超额控制的“寻租观”,与此同时也揭示出,创始人在家族企业公司治理中所扮演的积极角色。     

碳排放与资金双重约束下企业存货质押与生产决策

在碳排放许可与交易制度下,研究受资金约束的排放依赖性企业的存货质押与生产决策.以利润函数为目标函数构建决策模型,模型包括销售收入、生产成本、产成品存储费用、缺货成本、贷款利息、排放权市场交易费用和净化成本.通过求解,得出质押量、产量及对应的利润,最后对各参数进行敏感性分析.     

带有交易费用和持有成本的局内采购管理模型竞争分析

采购管理是企业经营活动的一个重要组成部分,更加有效的采购管理策略可以大大减少采购费用,对于企业的经营业绩非常重要。在现实的经济活动中交易费用和持有成本在企业管理费用中占很大一部分比率,而采购过程影响着交易费用和持有成本。所以在前人研究的基础上,将交易费用和持有成本引入到局内采购管理模型中,使得运用该策略无论以后采购价格如何变化,局内人的采购成本总是对应局外问题最优采购成本的一定比例c之内,并得到c与原模型相同。但是引入交易费用和持有成本后每天的采购量将发生变化,原模型是在不考虑交易费用和持有成本的前提下得得到的每天采购量和最优竞争比,如果考虑到现实经济活动中不可忽略的交易费用和持有成本,仍然按照原模型来确定每天的采购量来采购就不能得到最优竞争比c。所以本文考虑到了交易费用和持有成本,并得到和原模型不同的每天采购量,并求出最优竞争比c。     

股权激励对上市公司现金股利政策的影响

在我国上市公司股权激励制度背景下,为进一步检验股权激励对上市公司股利分配行为的影响效应.从管理者寻租的视角出发,以2010-2017年上证A股非金融类上市公司为研究样本,实证分析了股权激励对上市公司现金股利政策的影响.在此基础上,创新性地将控股股东股权性质以及公司规模作为调节变量构建了多元线性回归模型并求解.研究结果表明,股权激励对上市公司现金股利政策具有正向影响,且对非国有控股上市公司影响更为显著.丰富了高管股权激励及公司股利政策的相关研究.     

基于视情维修的质保政策设计研究

随着产品同质化程度不断提升,完善的质保服务已成为厂商提升品牌形象、刺激用户购买需求和全面反馈市场信息的主要途径。本文以具有退化特性的耐用品为研究对象,建立了视情维修条件下性能退化的维纳过程模型,考虑产品价格、质保期长度和维修费用承担比例对产品需求的影响,以最大化厂商利润为目标,确定了最优的质保期长度和维修费用承担比例。结合算例,比较了无视情维修和提供视情维修两种情形下对应的厂商利润,并分析了产品退化速率、成本参数和产品价格对利润的影响。研究结果表明,在质保服务范围内提供合理的视情维修服务既可将产品可靠性维持在一个较高水平,又可显著提升厂商利润。     

生物芯片无阀压电微流体泵流场数值研究

采用浅水波模型把浅薄形微泵的三维流动近似为二维厚度平均流动, 并采用有限元/压强修正法求解水平流场和计算微泵流量A·D2数值结果表明:1) 在微泵扩散管的过流截面上流速有时间相位差和回流现象．2) 微泵在吸流末期泵腔出现对称旋涡．3) 微流体泵的定向净流量来自于Navier-Stokes方程的非线性．还给出微泵流量与扩散管长宽比、厚宽比、液体粘度和进出口反压差的定量关系．通过参数优化可以使微泵得到尽可能大的流量．     

允许契约提前终止的鲁棒动态金融契约模型

本文提出一个动态鲁棒契约模型来捕捉委托-代理问题中委托人对代理人信息披露存在模糊厌恶的情形.通过该模型可以获得最优动态激励相容契约和内生的公司权益股息支付策略.本文证明了当委托人对代理人披露的信息存在极大的不信任时,最优决策要求委托人提前终止契约,并一次性向代理人支付提前终止契约的补偿.本文从理论上证明,在委托人的模糊厌恶下会带来额外的信息摩擦和惩罚费用,导致公司的最优值函数和最优投资水平下降,且惩罚费用随着模糊厌恶程度的增加而增加.由模糊厌恶引起的公司权益溢价和债券信用利差构成了“模糊性溢价”,该溢价是公司现金持有水平的减函数,并且随着模糊厌恶程度的增加而增加.进一步的理论分析发现,公司的投资水平与权益的预期收益率呈负相关关系,该结果与许多资产定价的实证结果一致.     

非寿险产品成本管理探解

非寿险产品成本管理一直是保险公司管理的薄弱环节。在目前非寿险业快速发展、非寿险公司争相上市、社会对保险需求急剧上升以及一切经营评价以会计报表为依据的情况下，我们有必要加大对非寿险业务特点的研究。     

非光滑约束规划的最优性条件

本文以方向可微和一致方向可微为工具,建立了约束非光滑规划的最优性条件,推广并改进了[1]中的主要结果。     

中国非金融行业上市公司现金流风险研究

本文研究了我国非金融行业上市公司经营净现金流的风险状况,建立了风险现金流(Cash-Flow-at-Risk)的POT模型,在可比公司估计的分析框架下,度量并分析经营净现金流风险。实证结果表明:第一、房地产业和综合类风险现金流级别相对最高,而采掘业、交通运输仓储业、电力煤气及水的生产与供应业的风险现金流相对最低;第二、除房地产业和综合类业外,其他行业ST公司风险现金流值均比同行业正常公司值要高;第三、受金融危机的影响,与2006、2007年同期相比,2008年经营净现金流为负值公司数目及超出风险现金流值的公司数目均明显增加。     

Firm behavioral response to multiple sources of risky cash flow

We extend previous research to demonstrate that risk-averse firms can appear to be risk-seeking when facing multiple sources of risky cash flow. While our model requires that cash flows from operations are independently, uniformly distributed, we are able to demonstrate that three previous derived results hold with multiple sources of risk. Using chance constrained programming, we demonstrate that binding probability constraints can cause (1) a higher degree of aversion to illiquidity to induce increased risk taking; (2) apparent risk-seeking behavior; and (3) an increase in endowment to lead to lower expected profit.     

Price competition in the Hotelling model with uncertainty on costs

For the linear Hotelling model with firms located at the boundaries of the segment line, we study the price competition in a scenario of incomplete information in the production costs of both firms. We introduce the bounded uncertain costs (BUC) condition in the production costs and we prove that there is a local optimum price strategy if and only if the BUC condition holds. We compute explicitly the local optimum price strategy and we prove that it does not depend upon the distributions of the production costs of the firms, except on their first moments. We prove that the ex-post profit of a firm is smaller than its ex-ante profit if and only if the production cost of the other firm is greater than its expected cost.     

现金持有动态调整机制——基于动态面板模型的实证分析

本文通过建立动态面板数据模型,系统地研究了中国企业现金持有的动态调整机制。发现:第一,企业存在最优目标现金持有水平,现金持有策略倾向于围绕这一目标进行动态调整,但是我国资本市场动态调整的成本较高;第二,现金持有不足企业的调整速度快于超额现金持有企业的调整速度,这说明,相对于超额现金持有带来的代理成本负面影响,企业更加倾向于关注现金持有不足所产生的流动性短缺风险。并且统计过程表明系统广义矩方法在动态面板模型估计中具有合理性。     

Cash flow optimization in delivery scheduling

The paper examines the inventory routing problem from the perspective of the present value of the cash flow associated with the distribution of a commodity such as propane. We analyze this problem for both deterministic and stochastic customer demands and validate our results on data from a real life distribution operation of propane. The analysis based on the present value of the cash flow indicates that optimization of propane deliveries based on efficiency/cost criteria alone will generate inferior solutions and it would be more advantageous for the company to set deliveries for a large percentage of the customers based on the present value of cash flow. In addition, in the case of stochastic demands, deliveries based on the cash flow consideration will tend to reduce the number of stockouts (i.e. improve both profit and service).     

Firm behavior under illiquidity risk

We develop a model of firm behavior in the presence of risk, resource constraints, and a cash flow constraint. Given imperfect capital markets, the producer confronts an uncertain cash flow. Utilizing chance constrained programming, we show that an increase in aversion to liquidity risk can cause an increased allocation to high-risk production alternatives. With a binding cash flow constraint, risk-averse firms appear to demonstrate risk-seeking behavior over losses and risk-averse behavior over gains.     

Can properly discounted projects follow geometric Brownian motion?

The geometric Brownian motion is routinely used as a dynamic model of underlying project value in real option analysis, perhaps for reasons of analytic tractability. By characterizing a stochastic state variable of future cash flows, this paper considers how transformations between a state variable and cash flows are related to project volatility and drift, and specifies necessary and sufficient conditions for project volatility and drift to be time-varying, a topic that is important for real option analysis because project value and its fluctuation can only seldom be estimated from data. This study also shows how fixed costs can cause project volatility to be mean-reverting. We conclude that the conditions of geometric Brownian motion can only rarely be met, and therefore real option analysis should be based on models of cash flow factors rather than a direct model of project value.     

机组排班的混合集合规划方法研究

机组成本是仅次于燃料成本的第二大直接运营成本,合理的进行机组人员排班对降低航空公司运营成本有着重要意义。然而,机组排班问题是复杂性非常高的组合优化问题,属于NP难题。本文在分析机组排班问题研究进展的基础上,采用混合集合规划方法,综合考虑多种约束,建立了更具有实用性的机组排班优化模型。本文将运筹学理论与业务逻辑相结合,设计了高效的求解策略。利用多组航空公司真实数据对模型进行测试,测试结果表明,模型可以在较短时间内有效求解达到实际应用规模的机组排班问题。     

IMPACT OF OPERATING COSTS ON INVESTMENT STRATEGIES IN NEW TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION WITH A FURTHER NEW TECHNOLOGY ANTICIPATED

The adoption of new technologies often represents a crucial component of firms＇ investment decisions. This paper studies a dynamic duopoly model in which two firms compete in adoption of current technology with a further new technology anticipated. Here it is assumed that the operating costs are not zero which has more explanatory power of the real world. There exist three kinds of equilibria that may occur in adoption of current technology, which mainly depends on the level of operating costs and the first-move advantage. It shows that the faster technological substitution or innovation encourages the leader to invest earlier while induces the follower to invest later. Furthermore,like the investment costs,with the increase of operating costs the follower tends to invest later while the leader tends to invest earlier ,the investment thresholds are more sensitive to the change of operating costs than that of investment costs.     

预期更新技术出现时新技术采用中经营成本对投资策略的影响

The adoption of new technologies often represents acrucial component of firms' investment decisions.This paper studies a dynamic duopoly model in which two firms compete in adoption of current technology with afurther new technology anticipated.Here it is assumed that the operating costs are not zero which has more explanatory power of the real world.There exist three kinds of equilibria that may occur in adoption of current technology,which mainly depends on the level of operating costs and the first-move advantage.It shows that the faster technological substitution or innovation encourages the leader to invest earlier while induces the follower to invest later.Furthermore,like the investment costs,with the increase of operating costs the follower tends to invest later while the leader tends to invest earlier,the investment thresholds are more sensitive to the change of operating costs than that of investment costs.