景区旅游厕所满意度的重要性和绩效性实证研究——以山东省4个5A级景区为例

长期以来,旅游厕所是我国旅游业最突出的薄弱环节.旅游厕所问题不仅关乎游客的切身利益,而且关乎目的地的长远发展.本研究以在趵突泉等4个旅游景区调查的575位游客为样本,利用IPA方法分析游客对旅游厕所30个评价指标的感知.结果表明:1)游客对反映旅游厕所"找得到"、"进得去"、"呆得下"的评价指标有最高的重要性感知.对旅游厕所的内饰、外观等方面的评价指标有最低的重要性感知;2)游客对旅游厕所在标识、免收费、开放时间等方面的表现有最高的绩效感知,对旅游厕所在辅助服务人性化、配套设备现代化等方面的表现满意度最低;3)如厕环境、服务残障人士等方面有高重要性但旅游厕所的实际表现不佳,是今后"厕所革命"的工作重心.研究结果有助于从游客需求的角度为我国目前正在推进的旅游厕所革命提供理论依据和实践指导.     

An extension of the Antoci-Dei-Galeotti evolutionary model for environment protection through financial instruments

This work moves from a recent paper by Antoci et al. (2009) [1] where a dynamic model is proposed to describe an innovative method for improving environmental quality based on the exchange of financial activities, promoted by a Public Administration, between firms and tourists in a given region. We extend their analysis in two directions: we first perform a global analysis of the basins of attraction to check the stability extents of the coexisting stable attractors of the model, and we show that some undesirable and sub-optimal stable equilibria always exist, whose basins may be quite intermingled with those of the optimal equilibrium; then we introduce a structural change of the model by assuming that the Public Administration, besides its action as an intermediary between visitors and polluting firms, also performs a direct action for the pollution control. We show how the cost of this direct action of the Public Administration can be balanced by proper taxes and we prove that undesired equilibria can be ruled out by a suitable balance of financial instruments and direct actions of Public Administration for environmental remediation.     

Optimization and simulation of tourist shunt scheme: A case of Jiuzhai Valley

With the development of tourism, the number of tourists is rapidly increasing. However, too many concentrated tourists at peak-tour have resulted in the distribution imbalance of tourists in the scenic area. Now the imbalance diminishes tourist satisfaction and destructs the ecological environment. Thus the contradictions between economic development and ecological environment protection of the scenic area are becoming increasingly acute. Tourists shunt and scheduling, which is a hot topic of tourism management, will help realize the load balance of the scenic area and ease the contradictions between economic development and environmental protection. In this paper, we build a simulation model of tourist shunt in real-time for scenic area, and search an optimal shunt scheme of various time-periods through genetic algorithm. Finally we take the scenic area of Jiuzhai Valley as an example and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme in this paper.     

Selection of entrepreneurs in the venture capital industry: An asymptotic analysis

We study a model of entrepreneurs who compete in an auction-like setting for venture capital (VC) funding in a setting where limited capital dictates that the VC can only finance the best entrepreneurs. With asymmetric information, VCs can only assess entrepreneurs by the progress of development, which, in equilibrium, reveals the quality of the new technology. Using an asymptotic analysis, we prove that in attractive industries having a large number of entrepreneurs competing for VC funding could lead to underinvestment in technology by entrepreneurs as the effort exerted by losing entrepreneurs is wasted. The study then proceeds to characterize the conditions under which a greater number of competing entrepreneurs is better. The model also demonstrates that VCs could possibly increase their payoff by concentrating on a single industry. In addition, the study also provides some insights on the effects of multiple investments by VCs and the effects of competition among VCs on the same investments.     

Terrorists’ Eradication Versus Perpetual Terror War

We study an infinite-horizon sequential dynamic game where the players are a government and an international terrorist organization. We provide conditions for the existence of equilibria in which the terrorists’ resources are totally destroyed by a government’s strike. Specifically, we study strong eradication equilibria in which the government’s strike annihilates the terrorists’ resources, preventing the terrorists from acting. We also pay attention to weak eradication equilibria in which the terrorists’ resources are destroyed but in which the initial value of the terrorists’ strike is nevertheless positive. We also show the existence of an equilibrium in which war is perpetual between the government and the terrorists. Perpetual war can only coexist with weak eradication equilibria. For these cases, we provide conditions under which the government would be better off in a weak eradication equilibrium.     

Impact of some parameters on investments in oligopolistic electricity markets

It is seldom the case that one has the opportunity to compare investments as projected by a long-term multi-period model to what is eventually realized in practice. Further, although sensitivity analysis is of common use in any optimization setting, the impact of some parameters on strategic investments is not yet fully assessed in the context of the deregulated electricity industry. Starting with a benchmark model of the Finnish industry, we precisely explore the impact on equilibrium investments of varying such parameters as direct- and cross-price elasticities, length of the planning horizon and the depreciation rate of capacity. We run the model with different parameter values and compare the predicted equilibrium with what companies have actually done. The model is a stochastic dynamic game involving three players and played over a ten-year period.Our results show the depreciation rate and the planning horizon have a notable effect on investment levels, whereas price elasticities seem to play a lesser role. Although the model’s results are rather well aligned to total industry investments, it diverges from individual levels. This may be due to the cost parameter used and/or to the open-loop information structure adopted in the computations. In any event, these results should be of methodological and practical interest to scholars and practitioners involved in strategic investment in the electricity industry.     

中国入境旅游人数和外汇收入的CAR预测模型

分析1978-2007年我国入境旅游的统计资料,以我国零售商品物价指数为控制项,建立入境旅游人数、入境旅游过夜人数、入境旅游外国人人数、入境旅游港澳台人数和入境旅游外汇收入的时间序列模型,预测未来我国入境旅游的发展前景。     

恐怖分子入侵阻止网络的双层规划建模与禁忌搜索分析

“一带一路”战略加深了我国与邻国的合作交流,也为境外恐怖分子的潜入提供可乘之机。为防止恐怖分子潜入,提出一类新的恐怖分子入侵阻止网络设计问题,充分考虑恐怖分子的计算能力,通过决策有限安检资源在边境交通网络中的最优分配来降低袭击风险。首先,将该问题构造为双层规划模型,上层规划是政府的阻止网络设计问题,下层规划是恐怖分子的袭击节点选择和入侵路径优化问题;其次,设计一类用禁忌搜索处理上层规划,并结合下层规划直接求解的混合算法;最后,结合南疆实例进行仿真分析,结果发现:恐怖分子计算能力越强,网络城市节点受袭风险越大;政府最优阻断方案随恐怖分子计算能力强弱变化而变化,但存在一定共性原则;增加阻断资源投入可降低袭击风险,但两者存在“边际效用递减”关系。     

Real R&D options and optimal activation of two-dimensional random controls

We value investments under uncertainty with embedded optional costly controls (impulse-type with uncertain outcome) that capture managerial intervention for value enhancement and/or information acquisition (exploration, R&D, advertising, marketing research, etc). Implementing real option models but neglecting such embedded managerial actions can severely underestimate investment opportunities and lead to erroneous investment decisions. Optimal decisions are solutions to a maximization problem where the trade-off between the control's cost and the value added by such actions is explicitly taken into consideration. In this paper, we generalize such a methodology from one dealing with the special case of actions affecting only one state-variable, to one with actions that affect several. Asset values follow geometric Brownian motion or jump-diffusion processes with multiple generating sources of jumps. The Markov-chain numerical methodology we provide can handle sequential controls. Although we report the results with open-loop policies, the approach can be readily extended to accommodate dependency among the controls.     

Investment evaluation within project management: an information systems perspective

This paper is seeking to make a contribution through exploring project managementfrom the perspective of information systems (IS) investment evaluation.Organizational investments in IS are significant in financial terms and, as aresult, management would appear set to increasingly scrutinize such expenditurethrough tighter forms of decision-making and corporate governance. Inturn, this has increased the motivation of project managers toappropriately evaluate the impact of their IS before,during and after the investments are signed off. Thisperspective is not restricted to any one industry sector, with the authorseeking motivation for a better understanding of investment evaluation within aproject management context. This paper sets out to explain why andhow investment evaluation should be embedded in project managementin order to support an increase in the effectiveness of project management,thereby increasing the prospects of project success. While doing so,the reader will be provided with several touch-points that serve to outline thepurpose and challenges facing those seeking to evaluate their investments. Theauthor starts off with a contextualization of project management and its phasedactivities, such that a clear understanding of the contribution that investmentevaluation plays within robust project management can be demonstrated. Then, theperspective of investment versus consumption is presented, groundedwithin the strategic grid, which classifies information technology-basedprojects as either: strategic, turnaround, factory or support. The author thenpresents evaluation as a life-cycle process, where evaluation is classified intofour distinctive phases, namely ex-ante evaluation, metrics,command and control and ex-post evaluation, in doing so,emphasizing that evaluation needs to be seen as a process that runs through thelife cycle of a project rather than as a hurdle that needs to be cleared toensure financial approval.     

基于遗传算法的公交智能调度与优化——以南岳衡山景区为例

南岳衡山(以下简称南岳)以“外秀于林,内秀于文”驰名中外,作为风景名胜区近几年游客人数不断攀升。本文利用遗传算法对景区内公交线路的调度模型进行求解。首先,根据景区现有的公共交通资源和旅客的出行规律,构建了以旅游公交营运成本、游客等待成本和游客流失成本三方面优化目标的模型;然后,使用线性加权方法实现对旅客与营运公司双方利益兼顾,进一步完善模型;最后,利用Matlab对实地调研数据的车辆调度方案求解。表明该模型改善了南岳景区旅游交通,满足游客的合理需求,提升了旅游公司经营策略,真正成为“寿岳独秀”的知名品牌。     

Security design and firm dynamics under long‐term moral hazard

This paper addresses a moral hazard problem in which the agent's actions affect the future profits of the firm. The optimal contract can be implemented through the issuance of variable coupon debt and purchase of fixed‐coupon debt. Consequently, the resulting capital structure acts as a hedge for the firm, reducing underinvestment costs in bad states of nature and controlling overinvestment incentives in good ones. However, owing to asymmetric information between the firm's manager and investors, this hedge is only partial. The firm's investments vary with cash flows, disclosing the agent's asymmetric information to the principal. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Approximate solutions for expanding search games on general networks

We study the classical problem introduced by R. Isaacs and S. Gal of minimizing the time to find a hidden point H on a network Q moving from a known starting point. Rather than adopting the traditional continuous unit speed path paradigm, we use the dynamic “expanding search” paradigm recently introduced by the authors. Here the regions S(t) that have been searched by time t are increasing from the starting point and have total length t. Roughly speaking the search follows a sequence of arcs \(a_i\) such that each one starts at some point of an earlier one. This type of search is often carried out by real life search teams in the hunt for missing persons, escaped convicts, terrorists or lost airplanes. The paper which introduced this type of search solved the adversarial problem (where H is hidden to maximize the time to be found) for the cases where Q is a tree or is 2-arc-connected. This paper’s main contribution is to give two strategy classes which can be used on any network and have expected search times which are within a factor close to 1 of the value of the game (minimax search time). These strategies classes are respectively optimal for trees and 2-arc-connected networks. We also solve the game for circle-and-spike networks, which can be considered as the simplest class of networks for which a solution was previously unknown.

     

Terror and Counterterror Operations: Differential Game with Cyclical Nash Solution

The purpose of this paper is to study efficient measures to combat terror. To choose efficient actions against terror organizations, the response of terrorists has to be taken into consideration. Thus, an appropriate framework to study the intertemporal strategic interactions of Western governments and terror organizations is dynamic game theory. Using the open-loop Nash solution concept, it turns out that the system may exhibit long-run persistent oscillations. However, transitory behavior is nonunique.     

基于生存分析模型的游客停留天数影响因素分析——以大连滨海旅游为例

游客的停留天数是影响旅游经济发展的一个重要因素。但是,由于停留天数变量特有的统计属性和复杂性,如数据删失和非负性,使得经济研究领域很少有学者系统地的研究这一问题。本文通过使用计量经济学的参数化生存分析模型分析游客停留天数的决定因素,这对旅游需求研究是一个很好的创新。在研究过程中,为了揭示影响游客停留天数的主要因素,本文考虑了多个关于游客的社会-人口统计特征等变量。结果显示,重复旅行的游客和距离较远的游客会停留较长的天数。因此,未来研究需要进一步分析具有这些特征的游客群体以及他们的经济状况和旅游活动特征等情况。游客的收入水平和年龄也对停留天数具有显著的影响。此外,游客受教育程度越高,停留天数越少。最后,本文分别分析了这些结果对旅游管理决策的含义。     

Using activity focus networks to pressure terrorist organizations

The predominant idea for using network concepts to fight terrorists centers on disabling key parts of their communication networks. Although this counternetwork strategy is clearly a sound approach, it is vulnerable to missing, incomplete, or erroneous information about the network. This paper describes a different and complementary application of network concepts to terrorist organizations. It is based on activity focus networks (AFNs), which represent the complex activity system of an organization. An activity focus is a conceptual or physical entity around which joint activity is organized. Any organization has a number of these, which are in some cases compatible and in some cases incompatible. The set of foci and their relations of compatibility and incompatibility define the AFN. A hypothetical AFN for a terrorist organization is specified and tested in a simulation called AQAS. It shows that certain activity foci, and in particular one combination, have high potential as pressure points for the activity system. The AFN approach complements the counternetwork approach by reducing the downside risk of incomplete information about the communication network, and enhancing the effectiveness of counternetwork approaches over time. Steven R. Corman is Professor in the Hugh Downs School of Human Communication at Arizona State University and Chair of the Organizational Communication Division of the International Communication Association. His research interests include communication networks and activity systems, high-resolution text and discourse analysis, and modeling and simulation of human communication systems.     

基于贝叶斯多元有序probit模型的休闲渔业游客满意度研究

游客满意度是休闲渔业景区制定管理决策的重要参考信息。通过探究游览过程中游客对各单一维度的满意程度与旅游总满意度之间的关系,管理者可以从中准确了解游客偏好、消费行为以及获取旅游产品设计等重要信息。据此,本文采取实地调研,获取11家全国休闲渔业示范基地1510份游客满意度信息,使用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛法(Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC),估算贝叶斯多元有序probit模型,并利用模型后验结果衡量休闲渔业游客7种分满意度对总体满意度的贡献。研究结果表明:渔憩体验满意度、景区环境满意度以及旅游餐饮满意度是对总体满意度影响程度最大的三种分满意度,所占比例分别为43.58%、24.67%、10.62%。     

The elixir of life: using a maintenance, repair and replacement model based on virtual and operating age in the water industry

Processing equipment in the water industry is subject to decayand requires maintenance, repair and eventual replacement. Thechallenge of competition within the water industry and the accompanyingregulatory regime requires that actions be integrated and costeffective. This is an industry, which has considerable dataon the failure of its equipment, but until recently very fewmodels of the maintenance process have been built. This paper describes the context of this problem for cleanwater processing where the equipment is that required to purifywater. It proposes a model based on the virtual and operatingage of the components. The operating age reflects the true ageof the equipment while the virtual age allows for the cumulativeeffect of maintenance actions performed on the equipment. Themodel also allows for different types of equipment by describingdegradation by Cox's proportional hazards model. Thus the specialfeatures of the equipment and environment in which the equipmentoperates are described by a set of characteristics, which modifythe hazard rate of the failure time of the equipment. This approachusing Cox's model with virtual and operating age can be appliedto other processing industries including the gas industry andthe ‘dirty water’ side of the water industry. The model is formulated as a stochastic dynamic programmingor Markov decision process and the form of the optimal policyis determined. This shows that repair and replacement shouldonly be performed when the equipment has failed and describesgeneral conditions when replacement is appropriate. The optimalpolicy is calculated numerically using the value iteration algorithmfor a specific example based on data on failure.     

上海世博会影响力的定量评估

2010年上海世博会的成功举办,对我国影响很大,而且涉及方面很广,采用大家比较重视的旅游业这一侧面做为切入点,选择能很好的反映旅游业状况的入境旅游人数,根据近30年上海入境旅游人数的相关数据,建立曲线模型预测在自然状态下2010年世博会期间的入境旅游人数.用预测值与实际值对比,反映出世博会的影响力将持续85年.     

Modelling the sustainability of mass tourism in island tourist economies

Tourism is one of the world's largest industries and is a source of jobs across national and regional economies. Assessing the economic, environmental and social impacts of tourism development has become a major activity within the tourism and sustainable development communities. The purpose of this research is to demonstrate the contribution of system dynamics for analysing policies that can not only promote sustainable tourism development, but also act as a warning signal to the industry about the potential negative consequences of uncontrolled growth of mass tourism, particularly in island tourist economies. Previous research in the tourism sector has been fragmented, when a holistic approach is needed in order to try to coerce some alignment in the views of the various stakeholders. The main research results illustrated in this paper are: a generic model of a tourism system informed by the (mainly) South European island tourist economies and a set of scenarios illustrating examples of policy analysis. The generic model and the modelling process developed in this research will have some transferability to other issues concerned with policymaking for sustainable development.