Integration of business function models into an aggregate enterprise systems model

Introduced are methods that combine models of distinct business functions into an aggregate model of an enterprise system to assist management’s strategic decision making. Models of individual business functions are reviewed, and equations quantifying relationships presented. Using methods of system theory, including block diagrams, non-dimensionalization, and state equation methods, these business function sub-models were assembled into a composite enterprise systems model. The formulated aggregate model is illustrated with industry examples for tire companies; nonetheless the aggregate model can be used to assess other industries. Values of parameters for the system model were determined from data obtained from annual reports of publicly owned companies. Simulations closely matched the companies’ published performance over ensuing years. The developed aggregate enterprise model has significant predictive capabilities for modern corporations.     

The impact of environmental regulations on forest product trade in China

Forest product trade plays an important role in the development of the Chinese forest industry. The trading value of forest product has shown a yearly growth rate of 12% during the last five recent years. Stringent environmental regulations in China have a profound impact on raw material supplies and industrial production in the forest sector; however, their impact on the forest product trade is still unclear. This study applies fixed and random effects models as well as a seemingly unrelated regression model to investigate the impact of environmental regulations on the trade of forest product from 2002 to 2015. The results indicate that the stringent environmental regulations promoted the import but restricted the export of forest product in general. Specifically, the stringent environmental regulations stimulated the import but had an ambiguous impact on the export of the paper product. The stringent environmental regulations had also stimulated the import of wood product but inhibited the export. In contrast, wooden furniture had been affected minimally; only export got slightly negatively affected by environmental regulations. Recommendations for resource managers:

• Trade‐offs between economic growth and environmental regulations are needed to smoothly promote the forest product trade in China.
• Paper and wooden furniture product sectors are less likely to be affected by stringent environmental regulations, because high value‐added products could compensate for environmental costs.
• The wood product sector is more likely to be negatively affected by stringent environmental regulations because environmental costs could severely impact the competitiveness of low value‐added products.

     

An integrated dynamic model for economic development and natural environment: An application to the Greek Sporades Islands

This paper presents a modelling study on regional sustainable development. First, the use of formal modelling for studying the multi-level relationship between economic, environmental and development processes is discussed. Such a relationship is analyzed for an island region in Greece. A potential conflict exists here between environmental conservation, local interests and rapid growth in tourism. A dynamic model is used to depict the development of the economies of three main islands and their interactions with the terrestrial and marine environment. The presentation of the case study model is followed by a discussion of scenarios, indicators and simulation results.This study was supported by the Foundation for Advancement of Economic Research (Ecozoek), which resorts under the Dutch Organization for Scientific Research (N.W.O.), Project No. 450-230-007.     

A comprehensive analytical approach for policy analysis of system dynamics models

Formal tools to link system dynamics model’s structure to the system modes of behavior have recently become available. In this paper, we aim to expand the use of these tools to perform the model’s policy analysis in a more structured and formal way than the exhaustive exploratory approaches used to date. We consider how a policy intervention (a parameter change) affects a particular behavior mode by affecting the gains of particular feedback loops as well as how it affects the presence of that mode in the variable of interest. The paper demonstrates the utility of considering both of these aspects since the analysis provides an assessment of the overall impact of a policy on a variable and explains why the impact occurs in terms of structural changes in the model. Particularly in the context of larger models, this method enables a much more efficient search for leverage policies, by ranking the influence of each model parameter without the need for multiple simulation experiments.     

Model development in discrete-event simulation and system dynamics: An empirical study of expert modellers

An empirical study comparing the model development process followed by experts in discrete-event simulation (DES) and system dynamics (SD) modelling is undertaken. verbal protocol analysis (VPA) is used to study the modelling process followed by ten expert modellers (5 SD and 5 DES). Participants are asked to build simulation models based on a case study and to think aloud while modelling. The generated verbal protocols are divided into seven modelling topics: problem structuring, conceptual modelling, data inputs, model coding, verification & validation, results & experimentation and implementation and then analyzed. Our results suggest that all modellers switch between modelling topics, however DES modellers follow a more linear progression. DES modellers focus significantly more on model coding and verification & validation, whereas SD modellers on conceptual modelling. Observations are made revealing some interesting differences in the way the two groups of modellers tackle the case. This paper contributes towards the comparison of DES and SD.     

Baseline models of spatial population dynamics

To understand human population dynamics fully, before considering complex human agency it may be useful to construct baseline models to see where such agency may and may not be necessary. In fact, the dynamics of human populations may be amenable to mathematical modeling with relatively parsimonious mechanisms. We review some of the more prominent of such models, namely, the spatial Galton-Watson (GW) model, modifications of the GW model that add migration and immigration, and the Bolker-Pacala model, in which mortality (or birth rate) is affected by competition. We show that change in the distribution of population density over the last century for 12 American rural states may be captured by the simplest of the models, the spatial GW model.     

System dynamics simulation model for assessing socio-economic impacts of different levels of environmental flow allocation in the Weihe River Basin,China

This study develops a complex system dynamics model (SD) reflecting interactions between water resources, Environmental Flow (EF) and socio-economy using SD software package “Vensim PLE”. The proposed model is employed to assess socio-economic impacts of different levels of EF allocation in the Weihe River Basin of China. Four alternative socio-economic growth patterns and four EF allocation schemes are designed to simulate those impacts. The results reveal that developed SD model performance well in reflecting the dynamic behavior of the system in the current study area. In the meanwhile, an optimal growth pattern considering both socio-economic growth and EF requirements are also found by comparing the different scenario simulation results.     

A discrete time version for models of population dynamics in the presence of an infection

We present a set of difference equations which represents the discrete counterpart of a large class of continuous model concerning the dynamics of an infection in an organism or in a host population. The limiting behavior of the discrete model is studied and a threshold parameter playing the role of the basic reproduction number is derived.     

The boundary of iterates in Euclidean growth models

This paper defines a general Euclidean growth model via a translation invariant, monotone and local transformation on Borel subsets of . The main result gives a geometric condition for the boundary curvature of the iterates to go to 0. Consequences include estimates for the speed of convergence to the asymptotic shape, and a result about survival of Euclidean deterministic forest fires.

     

Hybrid systems: Modelling and analysis using emergent dynamics

In this paper, we discuss modelling and analysis of hybrid systems with physical interaction dynamics. Such systems are typically considered complex and they are modelled using abstractions. Abstractions may, however, unintentionally exclude critical details, leading to partial or false results. Therefore, we study here use of a particle system in modelling and analysis. The novelty of the particle system is that it is designed to reveal interaction dynamics as emergent dynamics; thus, supporting analysis of complex and intricate interaction dynamics with acceptable modelling effort. As the main contribution, we formalize the particle system, and use it to model and analyze hybrid systems, both mechanical and biological, with nontrivial interaction dynamics.     

Interval modeling of dynamics for multibody systems

Modeling of multibody systems is an important though demanding field of application for interval arithmetic. Interval modeling of dynamics is particularly challenging, not least because of the differential equations which have to be solved in the process. Most modeling tools transform these equations into a (non-autonomous) initial value problem, interval algorithms for solving of which are known. The challenge then consists in finding interfaces between these algorithms and the modeling tools. This includes choosing between “symbolic” and “numerical” modeling environments, transforming the usually non-autonomous resulting system into an autonomous one, ensuring conformity of the new interval version to the old numerical, etc. In this paper, we focus on modeling multibody systems’ dynamics with the interval extension of the “numerical” environment MOBILE, discuss the techniques which make the uniform treatment of interval and non-interval modeling easier, comment on the wrapping effect, and give reasons for our choice of MOBILE by comparing the results achieved with its help with those obtained by analogous symbolic tools.     

Understanding supply chain dynamics: A chaos perspective

Variability in orders or inventories in supply chain systems is generally thought to be caused by exogenous random factors such as uncertainties in customer demand or lead time. Studies have shown, however, that orders or inventories may exhibit significant variability even if customer demand and lead time are deterministic. In this paper, we investigate how this class of variability, chaos, may occur in a multi-level supply chain and offer insights into how to manage relevant supply chain factors to eliminate or reduce system chaos. The supply chain is characterized by the classical beer distribution model with some modifications. We observe the supply chain dynamics under the influence of various factors: demand pattern, ordering policy, demand-information sharing, and lead time. Through proper decision-region formation, the effect of various factors on system chaos is investigated using a factorial design. The degree of system chaos is quantified using the Lyapunov exponent across all levels of the supply chain. This study shows that, to reduce the degree of chaos in the supply chain system, the adjustment parameters for both inventory and supply line discrepancies should be more comparable in magnitude. Counter-intuitively, in certain decision regions, sharing demand information can do more harm than good. Similar to the bullwhip effect observed previously in demand, we discover the phenomenon of “chaos-amplification” in inventory across supply chain levels.     

Simulation in manufacturing and business: A review

This paper reports the results of a review of simulation applications published within peer-reviewed literature between 1997 and 2006 to provide an up-to-date picture of the role of simulation techniques within manufacturing and business. The review is characterised by three factors: wide coverage, broad scope of the simulation techniques, and a focus on real-world applications. A structured methodology was followed to narrow down the search from around 20,000 papers to 281. Results include interesting trends and patterns. For instance, although discrete event simulation is the most popular technique, it has lower stakeholder engagement than other techniques, such as system dynamics or gaming. This is highly correlated with modelling lead time and purpose. Considering application areas, modelling is mostly used in scheduling. Finally, this review shows an increasing interest in hybrid modelling as an approach to cope with complex enterprise-wide systems.     

Interpreting supply chain dynamics: A quasi-chaos perspective

Chaotic phenomena, chaos amplification and other interesting nonlinear behaviors have been observed in supply chain systems. Chaos can be defined theoretically if the dynamics under study are produced only by deterministic factors. However, deterministic settings rarely present themselves in reality. In fact, real data are typically unknown. How can the chaos theory and its related methodology be applied in the real world? When the demand is stochastic, the interpretation and distribution of the Lyapunov exponents derived from the effective inventory at different supply chain levels are not similar to those under deterministic demand settings. Are the observed dynamics of the effective inventory random, chaotic, or simply quasi-chaos? In this study, we investigate a situation whereby the chaos analysis is applied to a time series as if its underlying structure, deterministic or stochastic, is unknown. The result shows clear distinction in chaos characterization between the two categories of demand process, deterministic vs. stochastic. It also highlights the complexity of the interplay between stochastic demand processes and nonlinear dynamics. Therefore, caution should be exercised in interpreting system dynamics when applying chaos analysis to a system of unknown underlying structure. By understanding this delicate interplay, decision makers have the better chance to tackle the problem correctly or more effectively at the demand end or the supply end.     

Water resources planning based on complex system dynamics: A case study of Tianjin city

A complex system dynamic (SD) model focusing on water resources, termed as TianjinSD, is developed for the integrated and scientific management of the water resources of Tianjin, which contains information feedback that governs interactions in the system and is capable of synthesizing component-level knowledge into system behavior simulation at an integrated level, thus presenting reasonable predictive results for policy-making on water resources allocation and management. As for the Tianjin city, interactions among 96 components for 12 years are explored and four planning alternatives are chosen, one of which is based on the conventional mode assuming that the existing pattern of human activities will be prevailed, while the others are alternative planning designs based on the interaction of local authorities and planning researchers. Optimal mode is therefore obtained according to different scenarios when compared the simulation results for evaluation of different decisions and dynamic consequences.     

Two-time scales in spatially structured models of population dynamics: A semigroup approach

The aim of this work is to provide a unified approach to the treatment of a class of spatially structured population dynamics models whose evolution processes occur at two different time scales. In the setting of the C₀-semigroup theory, we will consider a general formulation of some semilinear evolution problems defined on a Banach space in which the two-time scales are represented by a parameter ε>0 small enough, that mathematically gives rise to a singular perturbation problem. Applying the so-called aggregation of variables method, a simplified model called the aggregated model is constructed. A nontrivial mathematical task consists of comparing the asymptotic behaviour of solutions to both problems when ε→₀₊, under the assumption that the aggregated model has a compact attractor. Applications of the method to a class of two-time reaction-diffusion models of spatially structured population dynamics and to models with discrete spatial structure are given.     

基于SD的城市户籍改革中公共服务政策创新效应的动态仿真研究——以南昌市为例

在城乡户籍限制壁垒正逐步削弱的大背景下,实现城市常住人口公共服务均等化对于区域经济发展具有重要意义.应用系统动力学的逐树设撤关联数结构行为检验建模方法,建立仿真模型,通过设置户籍政策调控参数、公共教育支出参数、就业和社会保障支出参数及医疗卫生支出参数,分析不同情景下的政策实施效果,探讨城市户籍改革中公共服务创新政策效应.结果表明,提高公共服务支出水平,扩大居住证含金量,有利于提升户籍改革效果.     

Stability analysis of constrained inventory systems with transportation delay

Stability is a fundamental design property of inventory systems. However, the often exploited linearity assumptions in the current literature create a major gap between theory and practice. In this paper the stability of a constrained production and inventory system with a Forbidden Returns constraint (that is, a non-negative order rate) is studied via a piecewise linear model, an eigenvalue analysis and a simulation investigation. The APVIOBPCS (Automatic Pipeline, Variable Inventory and Order Based Production Control System) and EPVIOBPCS (Estimated Pipeline, Variable Inventory and Order Based Production Control System) replenishment policies are adopted. Surprisingly, all kinds of non-linear dynamical behaviours of systems can be observed in these simple models. Exact expressions of the asymptotic stability boundaries and Lyapunovian stability boundaries are derived when actual and perceived transportation lead-time is 1 and 2 periods long respectively. Asymptotically stable regions in the non-linear Forbidden Return systems are identical to the stable regions in its unconstrained counterpart. However, regions of bounded fluctuations that continue forever, including both periodicity and chaos, exist in the parametrical plane outside the asymptotically stable region. Simulation shows a complex and delicate structure in these regions. The results suggest that accurate lead-time information is essential to eliminate inventory drift and instability and that ordering policies have to be designed properly in accordance with the actual lead-time to avoid these fluctuations and divergence.     

Visual representations as objects of analysis: the number line as an example

Our paper examines the representational nature of number lines as they are used in instructional tasks. The examination is informed by a so-called mathedidactical analysis of the number line as a tool used in teaching students mathematics. This analysis led to the identification of a family of number line models, based on visual aspects of number lines each reflecting different forms and functions. In the article, number line tasks are unpacked to illustrate the visual representational components of particular number line models. We illuminate how these components of the models provide tools to locate whole numbers and integers, operate with them, and facilitate reasoning and understanding of underlying mathematical concepts.     

A bifurcation theorem for nonlinear matrix models of population dynamics

ABSTRACT

We prove a general theorem for nonlinear matrix models of the type used in structured population dynamics that describes the bifurcation that occurs when the extinction equilibrium destabilizes as a model parameter is varied. The existence of a bifurcating continuum of positive equilibria is established, and their local stability is related to the direction of bifurcation. Our theorem generalizes existing theorems found in the literature in two ways. First, it allows for a general appearance of the bifurcation parameter (existing theorems require the parameter to appear linearly). This significantly widens the applicability of the theorem to population models. Second, our theorem describes circumstances in which a backward bifurcation can produce stable positive equilibria (existing theorems allow for stability only when the bifurcation is forward). The signs of two diagnostic quantities determine the stability of the bifurcating equilibrium and the direction of bifurcation. We give examples that illustrate these features.