Production-inventory control policy under warm/cold state-dependent fixed costs and stochastic demand: partial characterization and heuristics

The motivation for our study comes from some production and inventory systems in which ordering/producing quantities that exceed certain thresholds in a given period might eliminate some setup activities in the next period. Many examples of such systems have been discussed in prior research but the analysis has been limited to production settings under deterministic demand. In this paper, we consider a periodic-review production-inventory model under stochastic demand and incorporate the following fixed-cost structure into our analysis. When the order quantity in a given period exceeds a specified threshold value, the system is assumed to be in a “warm” state and no fixed cost is incurred in the next period regardless of the order quantity; otherwise the system state is considered “cold” and a positive fixed cost is required to place an order. Assuming that the unsatisfied demand is lost, we develop a dynamic programming formulation of the problem and utilize the concepts of quasi-K-convexity and non-K-decreasing to show some structural results on the optimal cost-to-go functions. This analysis enables us to derive a partial characterization of the optimal policy under the assumption that the demands follow a Pólya or uniform distribution. The optimal policy is defined over multiple decision regions for each system state. We develop heuristic policies that are aimed to address the partially characterized decisions, simplify the ordering policy, and save computational efforts in implementation. The numerical experiments conducted on a large set of test instances including uniform, normal and Poisson demand distributions show that a heuristic policy that is inspired by the optimal policy is able to find the optimal solution in almost all instances, and that a so-called generalized base-stock policy provides quite satisfactory results under reasonable computational efforts. We use our numerical examples to generate insights on the impact of problem parameters. Finally, we extend our analysis into the infinite horizon setting and show that the structure of the optimal policy remains similar.     

A two-bottleneck system with binomial yields and rigid demand

This study considers multistage production systems where production is in lots and only two stages have non-zero setup costs. Yields are binomial and demand, needing to be satisfied in its entirety, is “rigid”. We refer to a stage with non-zero setup cost as a “bottleneck” (BN) and thus to the system as “a two-bottleneck system” (2-BNS). A close examination of the simplest 2-BNS reveals that costs corresponding to a particular level of work in process (WIP) depend upon costs for higher levels of WIP, making it impossible to formulate a recursive solution.For each possible configuration of intermediate inventories a production policy must specify at which stage to produce next and the number of units to be processed. We prove that any arbitrarily “fixed” production policy gives rise to a finite set of linear equations, and develop algorithms to solve the two-stage problem. We also show how the general 2-BNS can be reduced to a three-stage problem, where the middle stage is a non-BN, and that the algorithms developed can be modified to solve this problem.     

Decision support models in climate policy

Climate change is considered among the most critical risks that global society faces in this century. So far, climate policy strategies have been evaluated by means of a variety of climate-economy models, or Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), in the aim of supporting climate-related decision making. However, their inherent complexity, the number and nature of driving assumptions, and usual exclusion of stakeholders from the modelling process raise the issue of the extent to which they can provide fruitful insights for policy makers. Moreover, as with all modelling frameworks, IAMs inevitably fail to incorporate all relevant types of uncertainty and risk when used as stand-alone tools. This exclusion can have a significant impact on the model outcomes, but can be mitigated if experts’ knowledge is elicited in a structured manner and effectively taken into account, towards identifying such factors or reducing respective knowledge gaps. At the same time, a growing number of research publications have been suggesting decision support frameworks for assessing specific aspects in climate policy, based on “bottom-up” approaches and participatory processes. The objective of this paper is to provide a critical review of such frameworks—namely Portfolio Analysis, Multiple Criteria Decision Making and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps—in order to explore their strengths and weaknesses in this area, and propose a new integrative approach, appropriately exploiting blends of these frameworks, to productively complement IAMs, towards enhancing climate policy support.     

A preventive maintenance policy with sequential checking procedure for a Markov deteriorating system

We consider a repairable system subject to a continuous-time Markovian deterioration while running, that leads to failure. The deterioration degree is measured with a finite discrete scale; repairs follow general distributions; failures are instantaneously detected. This system is submitted to a preventive maintenance policy, with a sequential checking procedure: the up-states are divided into two parts, the “good” up-states and the “degraded” up-states. Instantaneous (and perfect) inspections are then performed on the running system: when it is found in a degraded up-state, it is stopped to be maintained (for a random duration that depends on the degradation degree of the system); when it is found in a good up-state, it is left as it is. The next inspection epoch is then chosen randomly and depends on the degradation degree of the system by time of inspection. We compute the long-run availability of the maintained system and give sufficient conditions for the preventive maintenance policy to improve the long-run availability. We study the optimization of the long-run availability with respect to the distributions of the inter-inspection intervals: we show that under specific assumptions (often checked), optimal distributions are non-random. Numerical examples are studied.     

Bayesian policy support for adaptive strategies using computer models for complex physical systems

In this paper, we discuss combining expert knowledge and computer simulators in order to provide decision support for policy makers managing complex physical systems. We allow future states of the complex system to be viewed after initial policy is made, and for those states to influence revision of policy. The potential for future observations and intervention impacts heavily on optimal policy for today and this is handled within our approach. We show how deriving policy dependent system uncertainty using computer models leads to an intractable backwards induction problem for the resulting decision tree. We introduce an algorithm for emulating an upper bound on our expected loss surface for all possible policies and discuss how this might be used in policy support. To illustrate our methodology, we look at choosing an optimal CO₂ abatement strategy, combining an intermediate complexity climate model and an economic utility model with climate data.     

Integration of the human operator into responsive discrete production management systems

The need for production systems that can react or respond to dynamic changes is continuously increasing because of the reduction of product life cycle time and the rise of competition. To improve responsiveness, we show that integrating the intelligence of the human operator into the system helps to face complexity. However, little work has been done about the optimization of such integration considering production system constraints (real time decision making, observability, etc.) and human operator constraints (mental workload, trust in management system, self-confidence, etc.). This paper aims at discussing ways to take account of the cognitive abilities of the human operator and offers some advice on how to take accurately into account the integration of the human operator by the proposal of a set of global specifications. To illustrate how it is possible to contribute to the optimized design of a system based upon such specifications, we propose the concept of “distributed production management system”. We first address the specific interface issue. A classical example of “advanced display” designed for continuous systems, that is, the Ecological Interface Design (EID) approach, is applied to discrete production systems. We show that such an approach is coherent with parts of the introduced specifications but can be adapted to large complex and discrete systems with difficulty. To solve this issue, we propose the development of a distributed DSS where each local DSS integrates an advanced display and manages a set of production resources in cooperation with an operator, which reduces the global complexity.     

A pair of positive solutions for the Dirichlet p(z)-Laplacian with concave and convex nonlinearities

We consider a nonlinear parametric Dirichlet problem driven by the anisotropic p-Laplacian with the combined effects of “concave” and “convex” terms. The “superlinear” nonlinearity need not satisfy the Ambrosetti-Rabinowitz condition. Using variational methods based on the critical point theory and the Ekeland variational principle, we show that for small values of the parameter, the problem has at least two nontrivial smooth positive solutions.     

A note on inventory policies for products with residual-life-dependent demand

We study inventory ordering policies for products that attract demand at a decreasing rate as they approach the end of their usable lifetime, for example, perishable items nearing expiration. We consider the “product freshness’’, or equivalently, the time until expiration (“residual life”) as a factor influencing the customer demand. In a profit-maximizing framework, we build on the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) replenishment model and formulate the inventory ordering problem using a deterministic demand function that is concave decreasing in the the age of the product. We provide analytical results on the optimal ordering policy, including an explicit characterization of the decisions in the linear-demand case, and we develop an easy-to-implement adaptive heuristic policy for the general case. Numerical examples show that the optimal policy generates significant profit gains compared to the traditional cost-based policies and the adaptive heuristic policy performs highly satisfactorily in the tested instances.     

The Case for Open Admissions: A Status Report

Accountability figures prominently in the higher education policy discourse these days. Critics of higher education (for instance, members of the Spellings Commission) argue that colleges and universities need to be more “transparent” to justify support by taxpayers, payers of tuition, and other funders. To better inform prospective students and other stakeholders, we are being asked to go public about our programs, educational processes, and results.     

Project prioritization under policy restrictions. A combination of MCDA with 0–1 programming

Multiple Criteria Decision Aid methods are increasingly used in financial decision making in order to capture the multifaceted character of modern enterprises activated in a complex and versatile market environment. This paper presents a multiple criteria approach for the selection of firms applying for financial support from public funds. Besides the budget constraint, the specific decision situation imposes the consideration of additional policy constraints that prevent from directly exploiting rankings provided by a multiple criteria method. In such a case the problem solution is to find a set of alternatives satisfying the constraints and at the same time maximizing a measure of global performance. The proposed procedure relies on the PROMETHEE V method which belongs to the well-known PROMETHEE family of multiple criteria outranking methods and is combined with an integer programming formulation capable to effectively deal with the problem’s combinatorial character. This method is modified in order to avoid any bias in the selection of the optimal set that may arrive because of the apparent contradiction between the rate of resources consumption and the coefficients of the alternatives in the additive objective function.     

Methodology for participatory policy analysis

In the course of time it has become clear that policy analysts who use traditional formal modeling techniques have limited impact on policy making regarding complex policy problems. These kinds of problems require the analyst to combine scientific insights with subjective knowledge resources and to improve communication between the parties involved in the policy problem. A policy analyst who takes into account the need for social interaction has different participatory methods at his disposal, such as gaming/simulations, consensus conferences, and electronic meetings. Some assumptions with regard to the theoretical base, the application, and the effectiveness of participatory methods are formulated in this article. These assumptions can be tested and supplemented by means of comparative research on the effectiveness of participatory methods in different policy situations.     

Scheduling non-critical activities using multicriteria approach

In many projects the problem of selecting the start time of a non-critical activity arises. Usually it is possible to use the “as soon as possible” or “as late as possible” rules. In some situations, however, the result of such a decision depends on external factors such as exchange rate. This leads to an approach in which the problem of scheduling non-critical activities is solved using an expanded Cox–Ross–Rubinstein (CRR) binomial tree method. In the paper a bi-criteria problem of determining the start time of a non-critical activity is considered. We assume that the early start and the late start of the activity have been identified using Critical Path Method, but the project manager is free to select the time when the activity will actually be started. This decision cannot, however, be changed later, as it is associated with the allocation of key resources. Two main criteria are considered: cost and risk. While cost depends on exchange rate, risk increases with the delay of the start of the activity. The problem can be described as a dynamic process. We propose a new interactive technique for solving such a bi-criteria decision making problem under risk. The procedure uses trade-offs to identify a candidate solution. The CRR binomial method is applied to evaluate the cost of the activity.

     

Learning genetic algorithm parameters using hidden Markov models

Genetic algorithms (GAs) are routinely used to search problem spaces of interest. A lesser known but growing group of applications of GAs is the modeling of so-called “evolutionary processes”, for example, organizational learning and group decision-making. Given such an application, we show it is possible to compute the likely GA parameter settings given observed populations of such an evolutionary process. We examine the parameter estimation process using estimation procedures for learning hidden Markov models, with mathematical models that exactly capture expected GA behavior. We then explore the sampling distributions relevant to this estimation problem using an experimental approach.     

Fuzzy optimality based decision making under imperfect information without utility

In the realm of decision making under uncertainty, the general approach is the use of the utility theories. The main disadvantage of this approach is that it is based on an evaluation of a vector-valued alternative by means of a scalar-valued quantity. This transformation is counterintuitive and leads to loss of information. The latter is related to restrictive assumptions on preferences underlying utility models like independence, completeness, transitivity etc. Relaxation of these assumptions results into more adequate but less tractable models. In contrast, humans conduct direct comparison of alternatives as vectors of attributes’ values and don’t use artificial scalar values. Although vector-valued utility function-based methods exist, a fundamental axiomatic theory is absent and the problem of a direct comparison of vectors remains a challenge with a wide scope of research and applications. In the realm of multicriteria decision making there exist approaches like TOPSIS and AHP to various extent utilizing components-wise comparison of vectors. Basic principle of such comparison is the Pareto optimality which is based on a counterintuitive assumption that all alternatives within a Pareto optimal set are considered equally optimal. The above mentioned mandates necessity to develop new decision approaches based on direct comparison of vector-valued alternatives. In this paper we suggest a fuzzy Pareto optimality (FPO) based approach to decision making with fuzzy probabilities representing linguistic decision-relevant information. We use FPO concept to differentiate “more optimal” solutions from “less optimal” solutions. This is intuitive, especially when dealing with imperfect information. An example is solved to show the validity of the suggested ideas.     

Optimal advertising/ordering policy and finance mode selection for a capital-constrained retailer with stochastic demand

In this paper, we discuss how a capital-constrained retailer determines his optimal advertising/ordering policy and selects his financing mode when he faces the following modes: no financing service, bank financing, and supplier/mixed financing. For each mode, we construct an optimization model and present a method for how the retailer determines his corresponding optimal advertising and ordering policies in the terms of his initial capital level. Furthermore, we derive the conditions of retailer selecting the optimal financing mode based on both his initial capital level and the interest rates of the financing services. We show that when the retailer is relatively “poor,” he prefers bank financing mode if the bank interest rate is lower than the supplier, otherwise mixed financing mode; when he is moderately “rich,” he only selects supplier financing mode if the bank interest rate is greater than a threshold value and otherwise bank financing mode; however, when he is relatively “rich,” he always chooses bank financing mode even if the bank interest rate is higher than the supplier. We conduct numerical studies to illustrate the theoretical results and find adopting financing service significantly improves the retailer’s performance especially when he has relatively low initial capital level.     

Visual-interactive decision modeling (VIDEMO) in policy management: Bridging the gap between analytic and conceptual decision modeling

Policy decision making is a process, rather than a means to an end, stretching over a long time span in a dynamic environment. The advent of easily accessible modeling paradigms promotes the use of sophisticated tools to support policy decision making. It is argued, however, that to be successful in practice, the analytic approaches must be flexible and their role in the problem solving process transparent. In this paper we discuss the concept of visual interactive decision modeling (VIDEMO) in policy management. After positioning decision modeling in the context of problem solving, a generic modeling environment is proposed. It provides the necessary flexibility at the structural level coupled with the required transparency at the formal and resolution levels. The system is based on the premise that policy decision makers can only benefit from the power of analytic modeling if they are supported where and how they want to be supported, without having the analytic tool posing a frame to problem perception, problem analysis, and decision making. In its final version, the proposed VIDEMO approach bridges the gap between analytic and conceptual decision modeling.     

Climate change and optimal energy technology R&D policy

Public policy response to global climate change presents a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty. Theoretical work has shown that explicitly accounting for uncertainty and learning in climate change can have a large impact on optimal policy, especially technology policy. However, theory also shows that the specific impacts of uncertainty are ambiguous. In this paper, we provide a framework that combines economics and decision analysis to implement probabilistic data on energy technology research and development (R&D) policy in response to global climate change. We find that, given a budget constraint, the composition of the optimal R&D portfolio is highly diversified and robust to risk in climate damages. The overall optimal investment into technical change, however, does depend (in a non-monotonic way) on the risk in climate damages. Finally, we show that in order to properly value R&D, abatement must be included as a recourse decision.     

Mixed uncertainty sets for robust combinatorial optimization

In robust optimization, the uncertainty set is used to model all possible outcomes of uncertain parameters. In the classic setting, one assumes that this set is provided by the decision maker based on the data available to her. Only recently it has been recognized that the process of building useful uncertainty sets is in itself a challenging task that requires mathematical support. In this paper, we propose an approach to go beyond the classic setting, by assuming multiple uncertainty sets to be prepared, each with a weight showing the degree of belief that the set is a “true” model of uncertainty. We consider theoretical aspects of this approach and show that it is as easy to model as the classic setting. In an extensive computational study using a shortest path problem based on real-world data, we auto-tune uncertainty sets to the available data, and show that with regard to out-of-sample performance, the combination of multiple sets can give better results than each set on its own.

     

Queueing systems with leadtime constraints: A fluid-model approach for admission and sequencing control

We study how multi-product queueing systems should be controlled so that sojourn times (or end-to-end delays) do not exceed specified leadtimes. The network dynamically decides when to admit new arrivals and how to sequence the jobs in the system. To analyze this difficult problem, we propose an approach based on fluid-model analysis that translates the leadtime specifications into deterministic constraints on the queue length vector. The main benefit of this approach is that it is possible (and relatively easy) to construct scheduling and multi-product admission policies for leadtime control. Additional results are: (a) While this approach is simpler than a heavy-traffic approach, the admission policies that emerge from it are also more specific than, but consistent with, those from heavy-traffic analysis. (b) A simulation study gives a first indication that the policies also perform well in stochastic systems. (c) Our approach specifies a “tailored” admission region for any given sequencing policy. Such joint admission and sequencing control is “robust” in the following sense: system performance is relatively insensitive to the particular choice of sequencing rule when used in conjunction with tailored admission control. As an example, we discuss the tailored admission regions for two well-known sequencing policies: Generalized Processor Sharing and Generalized Longest Queue. (d) While we first focus on the multi-product single server system, we do extend to networks and identify some subtleties.