Bi-criterion procedures to support logistics decision making: cost and uncertainty

In practical decision making, one often is interested in solutions that balance multiple objectives. In this study we focus on generating efficient solutions for optimization problems with two objectives and a large but finite number of feasible solutions. Two classical approaches exist, being the constraint method and the weighting method, for which a specific implementation is required for this problem class. This paper elaborates specific straightforward implementations and applies them to a practical allocation problem, in which transportation cost and risk of shortage in supplied livestock quality are balanced. The variability in delivered quality is modelled using a scenario-based model that exploits historical farmer quality delivery data. The behaviour of both implementations is illustrated on this specific case, providing insight in (i) the obtained solutions, (ii) their computational efficiency. Our results indicate how efficient trade-offs in bi-criterion problems can be found in practical problems.     

Fractionation in radiation treatment planning

Radiotherapy treatment is often delivered in a fractionated manner over a period of time. Emerging delivery devices are able to determine the actual dose that has been delivered at each stage facilitating the use of adaptive treatment plans that compensate for errors in delivery. We formulate a model of the day-to-day planning problem as a stochastic program and exhibit the gains that can be achieved by incorporating uncertainty about errors during treatment into the planning process. Due to size and time restrictions, the model becomes intractable for realistic instances. We show how heuristics and neuro-dynamic programming can be used to approximate the stochastic solution, and derive results from our models for realistic time periods. These results allow us to generate practical rules of thumb that can be immediately implemented in current planning technologies.     

Vendor managed inventory for environments with stochastic product usage

We develop technology to plan delivery routes for the supply of blood products to hospitals by a blood bank. The technology produces low cost, robust plans that hedge against the natural uncertainty associated with blood product usage at hospitals. The technology relies on sampling-based approaches involving integer programming and variable neighborhood search. An extensive computational study shows the efficacy of the two approaches and highlights the impact of product usage uncertainty on the resulting delivery plans.     

Sequential and non-sequential acceptance sampling plans for autocorrelated processes using ARMA(p,q) models

This paper presents variable acceptance sampling plans based on the assumption that consecutive observations on a quality characteristic(X) are autocorrelated and are governed by a stationary autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process. The sampling plans are obtained under the assumption that an adequate ARMA model can be identified based on historical data from the process. Two types of acceptance sampling plans are presented: (1) Non-sequential acceptance sampling: In this case historical data is available based on which an ARMA model is identified. Parameter estimates are used to determine the action limit (k) and the sample size(n). A decision regarding acceptance of a process is made after a complete sample of size n is selected. (2) Sequential acceptance sampling: Here too historical data is available based on which an ARMA model is identified. A decision regarding whether or not to accept a process is made after each individual sample observation becomes available. The concept of Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) is used to derive the sampling plans. Simulation studies are used to assess the effect of uncertainties in parameter estimates and the effect of model misidentification (based on historical data) on sample size for the sampling plans. Macros for computing the required sample size using both methods based on several ARMA models can be found on the author’s web page .     

A mega-trend-diffusion grey forecasting model for short-term manufacturing demand

Accurate short-term demand forecasting is critical for developing effective production plans; however, a short forecasting period indicates that the product demands are unstable, rendering tracking of product development trends difficult. Determining the actual developing data patterns by using forecasting models generated using historical observations is difficult, and the forecasting performance of such models is unfavourable, whereas using the latest limited data for forecasting can improve management efficiency and maintain the competitive advantages of an enterprise. To solve forecasting problems related to a small data set, this study applied an adaptive grey model for forecasting short-term manufacturing demand. Experiments involving the monthly demand data for thin film transistor liquid crystal display panels and wafer-level chip-scale packaging process data showed that the proposed grey model produced favourable forecasting results, indicating its appropriateness as a short-term forecasting tool for small data sets.     

Supplier quality improvement: The value of information under uncertainty

We consider supplier development decisions for prime manufacturers with extensive supply bases producing complex, highly engineered products. We propose a novel modelling approach to support supply chain managers decide the optimal level of investment to improve quality performance under uncertainty. We develop a Poisson–Gamma model within a Bayesian framework, representing both the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in non-conformance rates. Estimates are obtained to value a supplier quality improvement activity and assess if it is worth gaining more information to reduce epistemic uncertainty. The theoretical properties of our model provide new insights about the relationship between the degree of epistemic uncertainty, the effectiveness of development programmes, and the levels of investment. We find that the optimal level of investment does not have a monotonic relationship with the rate of effectiveness. If investment is deferred until epistemic uncertainty is removed then the expected optimal investment monotonically decreases as prior variance increases but only if the prior mean is above a critical threshold. We develop methods to facilitate practical application of the model to industrial decisions by a) enabling use of the model with typical data available to major companies and b) developing computationally efficient approximations that can be implemented easily. Application to a real industry context illustrates the use of the model to support practical planning decisions to learn more about supplier quality and to invest in improving supplier capability.     

The impact of product substitution on retail merchandising

We analyze the impact of product substitution on two key aspects of retail merchandising: order quantities and expected profits. To perform this analysis, we extend the basic news-vendor model to include the possibility that a product with surplus inventory can be used as a substitute for out of stock products. This extension requires a definition and an approximation for the resulting effective demand under substitution. A service rate heuristic is developed to solve the extended problem. The performance of this heuristic is evaluated using an upper bound generated by solving the associated Lagrangian dual problem. Our analysis suggests that this heuristic provides a tractable and accurate method to determine order quantities and expected profits under substitution. We apply this heuristic to examine how the level of demand uncertainty and correlation, and the degree of substitution between products affect order quantities and expected profits under substitutable demand. In addition, we use the heuristic to better understand the mechanism by which substitution improves expected profits.     

Biologically guided intensity modulated radiation therapy planning optimization with fraction-size dose constraints

Although intensity modulated radiation therapy plans are optimized as a single overall treatment plan, they are delivered over 30–50 treatment sessions (fractions) and both cumulative and per-fraction dose constraints apply. Recent advances in imaging technology provide more insight on tumour biology that has been traditionally disregarded in planning. The current practice of delivering physical dose distributions across the tumour may potentially be improved by dose distributions guided by the biological responses of the tumour points. The biological optimization models developed and tested in this paper generate treatment plans reacting to the tumour biology prior to the treatment as well as the changing tumour biology throughout the treatment while satisfying both cumulative and fraction-size dose limits. Complete computational testing of the proposed methods would require an array of clinical data sets with tumour biology information. Finding no open source ones in the literature, the authors sought proof of concept by testing on a simulated head-and-neck case adapted from a more standard one in the CERR library by blending it with available tumour biology data from a published study. The results show computed biologically optimized plans improve on tumour control obtained by traditional plans ignoring biology, and that such improvements persist under likely uncertainty in sensitivity values. Furthermore, adaptive plans using biological information improve on non-adaptive methods.     

A new decision support framework for managing foot-and-mouth disease epidemics

Animal disease epidemics such as the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) pose recurrent threat to countries with intensive livestock production. Efficient FMD control is crucial in limiting the damage of FMD epidemics and securing food production. Decision making in FMD control involves a hierarchy of decisions made at strategic, tactical, and operational levels. These decisions are interdependent and have to be made under uncertainty about future development of the epidemic. Addressing this decision problem, this paper presents a new decision-support framework based on multi-level hierarchic Markov processes (MLHMP). The MLHMP model simultaneously optimizes decisions at strategic, tactical, and operational levels, using Bayesian forecasting methods to model uncertainty and learning about the epidemic. As illustrated by the example, the framework is especially useful in contingency planning for future FMD epidemics.     

Robust optimization of uncertain multistage inventory systems with inexact data in decision rules

In production-inventory problems customer demand is often subject to uncertainty. Therefore, it is challenging to design production plans that satisfy both demand and a set of constraints on e.g. production capacity and required inventory levels. Adjustable robust optimization (ARO) is a technique to solve these dynamic (multistage) production-inventory problems. In ARO, the decision in each stage is a function of the data on the realizations of the uncertain demand gathered from the previous periods. These data, however, are often inaccurate; there is much evidence in the information management literature that data quality in inventory systems is often poor. Reliance on data “as is” may then lead to poor performance of “data-driven” methods such as ARO. In this paper, we remedy this weakness of ARO by introducing a model that treats past data itself as an uncertain model parameter. We show that computational tractability of the robust counterparts associated with this extension of ARO is still maintained. The benefits of the new model are demonstrated by a numerical test case of a well-studied production-inventory problem. Our approach is also applicable to other ARO models outside the realm of production-inventory planning.     

A model of R&D valuation and the design of research incentives

We develop a real options model of R&D valuation that takes into account the uncertainty in the quality (or efficacy) of the research output, the time and cost to completion, and the market demand for the R&D output. The model is then applied to study the problem of pharmaceutical under-investment in R&D for vaccines to treat diseases affecting the developing regions of the world. To address this issue, world organizations and private foundations are willing to sponsor vaccine R&D, but there is no consensus on how to administer the sponsorship effectively. Different research incentive contracts are examined using our valuation model. Their effectiveness is measured in the following five dimensions: expected cost to the sponsor, probability of development success, consumer surplus generated, expected number of successful vaccinations and expected cost per person successfully vaccinated. We find that, in general, purchase commitment plans (pull subsidies) are more effective than cost subsidy plans (push subsidies). Moreover, we find that a hybrid subsidy plan constructed from a purchase commitment combined with a sponsor research cost-sharing subsidy is the most effective.     

A model of R&D valuation and the design of research incentives

We develop a real options model of R&D valuation that takes into account the uncertainty in the quality (or efficacy) of the research output, the time and cost to completion, and the market demand for the R&D output. The model is then applied to study the problem of pharmaceutical under-investment in R&D for vaccines to treat diseases affecting the developing regions of the world. To address this issue, world organizations and private foundations are willing to sponsor vaccine R&D, but there is no consensus on how to administer the sponsorship effectively. Different research incentive contracts are examined using our valuation model. Their effectiveness is measured in the following five dimensions: expected cost to the sponsor, probability of development success, consumer surplus generated, expected number of successful vaccinations and expected cost per person successfully vaccinated. We find that, in general, purchase commitment plans (pull subsidies) are more effective than cost subsidy plans (push subsidies). Moreover, we find that a hybrid subsidy plan constructed from a purchase commitment combined with a sponsor research cost-sharing subsidy is the most effective.     

On the optimality of threshold control in queues with model uncertainty

We consider a single-stage queuing system where arrivals and departures are modeled by point processes with stochastic intensities. An arrival incurs a cost, while a departure earns a revenue. The objective is to maximize the profit by controlling the intensities subject to capacity limits and holding costs. When the stochastic model for arrival and departure processes are completely known, then a threshold policy is known to be optimal. Many times arrival and departure processes can not be accurately modeled and controlled due to lack of sufficient calibration data or inaccurate assumptions. We prove that a threshold policy is optimal under a max–min robust model when the uncertainty in the processes is characterized by relative entropy. Our model generalizes the standard notion of relative entropy to account for different levels of model uncertainty in arrival and departure processes. We also study the impact of uncertainty levels on the optimal threshold control.     

Uncertain Product Quality, Optimal Pricing and Product Development

A firm is developing a new product. However, the firm is uncertain as to how consumers will perceive the product's desirability or quality. Using a general model of product quality, conditions for an increase in uncertainty to increase the optimal price are derived. General conditions are derived under which the firm prefers the less risky project, the one with lower quality variability. However, if at the optimal price the firm only has positive demand for high quality realizations, then the firm prefers a more risky project. As the uncertainty exists in the consumers' preferences, welfare effects can be determined, unlike in previous work examining uncertainty.     

Cure Cycle Design for Thermosetting-Matrix Composites Fabrication under Uncertainty

Design of the optimal cure temperature cycle is imperative for low-cost of manufacturing thermosetting-matrix composites. Uncertainties exist in several material and process parameters, which lead to variability in the process performance and product quality. This paper addresses the problem of determining the optimal cure temperature cycles under uncertainty. A stochastic model is developed, in which the parameter uncertainties are represented as probability density functions, and deterministic numerical process simulations based on the governing process physics are used to determine the distributions quantifying the output parameter variability. A combined Nelder–Mead Simplex method and the simulated annealing algorithm is used in conjunction with the stochastic model to obtain time-optimal cure cycles, subject to constraints on parameters influencing the product quality. Results are presented to illustrate the effects of a degree of parameter uncertainty, constraint values, and material kinetics on the optimal cycles. The studies are used to identify a critical degree of uncertainty in practice above which a rigorous analysis and design under uncertainty is warranted; below this critical value, a deterministic optimal cure cycle may be used with reasonable confidence.     

Competitive Multi-period Pricing for Perishable Products: A Robust Optimization Approach

We study a multi-period oligopolistic market for a single perishable product with fixed inventory. Our goal is to address the competitive aspect of the problem together with demand uncertainty using ideas from robust optimization and variational inequalities. The demand function for each seller has some associated uncertainty and we assume that the sellers would like to adopt a policy that is robust to adverse uncertain circumstances. We believe this is the first paper that uses robust optimization for dynamic pricing under competition. In particular, starting with a given fixed inventory, each seller competes over a multi-period time horizon in the market by setting prices and protection levels for each period at the beginning of the time horizon. Any unsold inventory at the end of the horizon is worthless. The sellers do not have the option of periodically reviewing and replenishing their inventory. We study non-cooperative Nash equilibrium policies for sellers under such a model. This kind of a setup can be used to model pricing of air fares, hotel reservations, bandwidth in communication networks, etc. In this paper we demonstrate our results through some numerical examples.     

Inventory constrained maritime routing and scheduling for multi-commodity liquid bulk,Part I: Applications and model

This paper formulates a model for finding a minimum cost routing in a network for a heterogeneous fleet of ships engaged in pickup and delivery of several liquid bulk products. The problem is frequently encountered by maritime chemical transport companies, including oil companies serving an archipelago of islands. The products are assumed to require dedicated compartments in the ship. The problem is to decide how much of each product should be carried by each ship from supply ports to demand ports, subject to the inventory level of each product in each port being maintained between certain levels that are set by the production rates, the consumption rates, and the storage capacities of the various products in each port. This important and challenging inventory constrained multi-ship pickup–delivery problem is formulated as a mixed-integer nonlinear program. We show that the model can be reformulated as an equivalent mixed-integer linear program with special structure. Over 100 test problems are randomly generated and solved using CPLEX 7.5. The results of our numerical experiments illuminate where problem structure can be exploited in order to solve larger instances of the model. Part II of the sequel will deal with new algorithms that take advantage of model properties.     

Heuristics for the multi-depot petrol station replenishment problem with time windows

In the multi-depot petrol station replenishment problem with time windows (MPSRPTW), the delivery of petroleum products stored in a number of different petroleum depots to a set of petrol distribution stations has to be optimized. Each depot has its own fleet of heterogeneous and compartmented tank trucks. Stations specify their demand by indicating the minimum and maximum quantities to be delivered for each ordered product and require the delivery within a predetermined time window. Several inter-related decisions must be made simultaneously in order to solve the problem. For this problem, the set of feasible routes to deliver all the demands, the departure depot for each route, the quantities of each product to be delivered, the assignment of these routes to trucks, the time schedule for each trip, and the loading of the ordered products to different tanks of the trucks used need to be determined. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model that selects, among a set of feasible trips, the subset that allows the delivery of all the demands while maximizing the overall daily net revenue. If this model is provided with all possible feasible trips, it determines the optimal solution for the corresponding MPSRPTW. However, since the number of such trips is often huge, we developed a procedure to generate a restricted set of promising feasible trips. Using this restricted set, the model produces a good but not necessarily optimal solution. Thus the proposed solution process can be seen as a heuristic. We report the results of the extensive numerical tests carried out to assess the performance of the proposed heuristic. In addition, we show that, for the special case of only one depot, the proposed heuristic outperforms a previously published solution method.     

Robust least square semidefinite programming with applications

In this paper, we consider a least square semidefinite programming problem under ellipsoidal data uncertainty. We show that the robustification of this uncertain problem can be reformulated as a semidefinite linear programming problem with an additional second-order cone constraint. We then provide an explicit quantitative sensitivity analysis on how the solution under the robustification depends on the size/shape of the ellipsoidal data uncertainty set. Next, we prove that, under suitable constraint qualifications, the reformulation has zero duality gap with its dual problem, even when the primal problem itself is infeasible. The dual problem is equivalent to minimizing a smooth objective function over the Cartesian product of second-order cones and the Euclidean space, which is easy to project onto. Thus, we propose a simple variant of the spectral projected gradient method (Birgin et al. in SIAM J. Optim. 10:1196–1211, 2000) to solve the dual problem. While it is well-known that any accumulation point of the sequence generated from the algorithm is a dual optimal solution, we show in addition that the dual objective value along the sequence generated converges to a finite value if and only if the primal problem is feasible, again under suitable constraint qualifications. This latter fact leads to a simple certificate for primal infeasibility in situations when the primal feasible set lies in a known compact set. As an application, we consider robust correlation stress testing where data uncertainty arises due to untimely recording of portfolio holdings. In our computational experiments on this particular application, our algorithm performs reasonably well on medium-sized problems for real data when finding the optimal solution (if exists) or identifying primal infeasibility, and usually outperforms the standard interior-point solver SDPT3 in terms of CPU time.     

A two-stage fuzzy robust integer programming approach for capacity planning of environmental management systems

In this study, a two-stage fuzzy robust integer programming (TFRIP) method has been developed for planning environmental management systems under uncertainty. This approach integrates techniques of robust programming and two-stage stochastic programming within a mixed integer linear programming framework. It can facilitate dynamic analysis of capacity-expansion planning for waste management facilities within a multi-stage context. In the modeling formulation, uncertainties can be presented in terms of both possibilistic and probabilistic distributions, such that robustness of the optimization process could be enhanced. In its solution process, the fuzzy decision space is delimited into a more robust one by specifying the uncertainties through dimensional enlargement of the original fuzzy constraints. The TFRIP method is applied to a case study of long-term waste-management planning under uncertainty. The generated solutions for continuous and binary variables can provide desired waste-flow-allocation and capacity-expansion plans with a minimized system cost and a maximized system feasibility.