New fuzzy models for time-cost trade-off problem

The time-cost trade-off problem is a specific type of the project scheduling problem which studies how to modify project activities so as to achieve the trade-off between the completion time and the project cost. In real projects, the trade-off between the project cost and the completion time, and the uncertainty of the environment are both considerable aspects for managers. In this paper, three new fuzzy time-cost trade-off models are proposed, in which credibility theory is applied to describe the uncertainty of activity duration times. A searching method by integrating fuzzy simulation and genetic algorithm is produced to search the quasi-optimal schedules under some decision-making criteria. The purpose of the paper is to reveal how to obtain the optimal balance of the completion time and the project cost in fuzzy environments.     

Optimization models and a GA-based algorithm for stochastic time-cost trade-off problem

In real-life projects, both the trade-off between the project cost and the project completion time, and the uncertainty of the environment are considerable aspects for decision-makers. However, the research on the time-cost trade-off problem seldom concerns stochastic environments. Besides, optimizing the expected value of the objective is the exclusive decision-making criterion in the existing models for the stochastic time-cost trade-off problem. In this paper, two newly developed alternative stochastic time-cost trade-off models are proposed, in which the philosophies of chance-constrained programming and dependent-chance programming are adopted for decision-making. In addition, a hybrid intelligent algorithm integrating stochastic simulations and genetic algorithm is designed to search the quasi-optimal schedules under different decision-making criteria. The goal of the paper is to reveal how to obtain the optimal balance of the project completion time and the project cost in stochastic environments.     

Project scheduling problem with mixed uncertainty of randomness and fuzziness

Project scheduling problem is to determine the schedule of allocating resources so as to balance the total cost and the completion time. This paper considers project scheduling problem with mixed uncertainty of randomness and fuzziness, where activity duration times are assumed to be random fuzzy variables. Three types of random fuzzy models as expected cost minimization model, (α, β)-cost minimization model and chance maximization model are built to meet different management requirements. Random fuzzy simulations for some uncertain functions are given and embedded into genetic algorithm to design a hybrid intelligent algorithm. Finally, some numerical experiments are given for the sake of illustration of the effectiveness of the algorithm.     

随机环境下基于成本经济的项目调度权衡优化研究

针对随机环境下项目前摄性调度与反应性调度在应对不确定因素过程中起到的不同作用,从成本经济角度出发,研究了如何通过两种调度方法的权衡实现项目计划与执行的最优配合。在此基础上构建了基于成本的前摄反应调度权衡模型,通过对鲁棒性成本与调整成本进行量化分析,实现两种调度方案的最佳权衡。考虑到问题的NP难属性,设计了基于混合变邻域禁忌搜索的随机两点启发式算法,并通过大规模算例测试验证了算法的有效性。结果表明,根据承包商对成本的敏感度,前摄性调度与反应性调度在应对不确定性因素干扰中承担的工作量会随着成本权衡比的变化而发生改变,逐渐从前摄性方法为主过渡到以反应性方法为主。最后,从项目管理角度给出了有价值的管理启示。     

不确定环境下基于时间、费用及鲁棒性权衡的多目标项目调度优化

项目调度中的时间和费用是两个重要的指标,而在不确定环境下进度计划的鲁棒性则是保证项目平稳实施的关键。本文研究不确定环境下的多目标项目调度优化问题,以优化项目的工期、鲁棒值和成本为目标安排各活动的开始时间。基于此,作者构建多目标项目调度优化模型,将模型分解为三个子模型分析目标间的权衡关系,然后设计非劣排序遗传算法进行求解,应用精英保留策略和基于子模型权衡关系的优化策略优化算法,进行算法测试和算例参数敏感性分析。最后,应用上述方法研究一个项目实例,计算得到非劣解集,实例的敏感性分析结果进一步验证了三个目标间的权衡关系,据此提出资源的有效利用策略。本文的研究可以为多目标项目调度制定进度计划提供定量化决策支持。     

Fuzzy project scheduling problem and its hybrid intelligent algorithm

Project scheduling problem is to determine the schedule of allocating resources so as to balance the total cost and the completion time. This paper considers a type of project scheduling problem with fuzzy activity duration times. According to some management goals, three types of fuzzy models are built to solve the project scheduling problem. Moreover, the technique of fuzzy simulation and genetic algorithm are integrated to design a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve the fuzzy models. Finally, some numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the algorithm.     

Branch and bound based solution algorithms for the budget constrained discrete time/cost trade-off problem

The time/cost trade-off models in project management aim to reduce the project completion time by putting extra resources on activity durations. The budget problem in discrete time/cost trade-off scheduling selects a time/cost mode for each activity so as to minimize the project completion time without exceeding the available budget. There may be alternative modes that solve the budget problem optimally and each solution may have a different total cost value. In this study we consider the budget problem and aim to find the minimum cost solution among the minimum project completion time solutions. We analyse the structure of the problem together with its linear programming relaxation and derive some mechanisms for reducing the problem size. We solve the reduced problem by branch and bound based optimization and heuristic algorithms. We find that our branch and bound algorithm finds optimal solutions for medium-sized problem instances in reasonable times and the heuristic algorithms produce high quality solutions very quickly.     

Time-cost trade-off analysis of project networks in fuzzy environments

This paper proposes a novel approach for time-cost trade-off analysis of a project network in fuzzy environments. Different from the results of previous studies, in this paper the membership function of the fuzzy minimum total crash cost is constructed based on Zadeh’s extension principle and fuzzy solutions are provided. A pair of two-level mathematical programs parameterized by possibility level α is formulated to calculate the lower and upper bounds of the fuzzy minimum total crash cost at α. By enumerating different values of α, the membership function of the fuzzy minimum total crash cost is constructed, and the corresponding optimal activity time for each activity is also obtained at the same time. An example of time-cost trade-off problem with several fuzzy parameters is solved successfully to demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach. Since the minimum total crash cost is expressed by a membership function rather than by a crisp value, the fuzziness of parameters is conserved completely, and more information is provided for time-cost trade-off analysis in project management. The proposed approach also can be applied to time-cost trade-off problems with other characteristics.     

Time-cost trade-off via optimal control theory in Markov PERT networks

We develop a new analytical model for the time-cost trade-off problem via optimal control theory in Markov PERT networks. It is assumed that the activity durations are independent random variables with generalized Erlang distributions, in which the mean duration of each activity is a non-increasing function of the amount of resource allocated to it. Then, we construct a multi-objective optimal control problem, in which the first objective is the minimization of the total direct costs of the project, in which the direct cost of each activity is a non-decreasing function of the resources allocated to it, the second objective is the minimization of the mean of project completion time and the third objective is the minimization of the variance of project completion time. Finally, two multi-objective decision techniques, viz, goal attainment and goal programming are applied to solve this multi-objective optimal control problem and obtain the optimal resources allocated to the activities or the control vector of the problem     

The resource constrained project scheduling problem with multiple crashable modes: A heuristic procedure

We present a heuristic procedure for a nonpreemptive resource constrained project scheduling problem in which the duration/cost of an activity is determined by the mode selection and the duration reduction (crashing) applied within the selected mode. This problem is a natural combination of the time/cost trade-off problem and the resource constrained project scheduling problem. The objective is to determine each activity's start (finish) time, mode and duration so that the total project cost is minimized. Total project cost is the sum of all activity costs and the penalty cost for completing the project beyond its due date. We introduce a multi-pass algorithm. We report computational results with a set of 100 test problems and demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed heuristic procedure.     

On the optimal management of project risk

The uncertainty of project networks has been mainly considered as the randomness of duration of the activities. However, another major problem for project managers is the uncertainty due to the randomness of the amount of resources required by each activity which can be expressed by the randomness of its cost. Such randomness can seriously affect the discounted cost of the project and it may be strongly correlated with the duration of the activity.In this paper, a model considering the randomness of both the cost and the duration of each activity is introduced and the problem of project scheduling is studied in terms of the project's discounted cost and of the risk of not meeting its completion time. The adoption of the earliest (latest) starting time for each activity decreases (increases) the risk of delays but increases (decreases) the discounted cost of the project. Therefore, an optimal compromise has to be achieved. This problem of optimization is studied in terms of the probability of the duration and of the discounted cost of the project falling outside the acceptable domain (Risk function) using the concept of float factor as major decision variable. This last concept is proposed to help the manager to synthetize the large number of the decision variables representing each schedule for the studied project. Numerical results are also presented for a specific project network.     

不确定条件下工程项目的多目标模糊均衡优化

在工程项目多目标优化问题研究基础上,研究不确定环境下工程项目多目标均衡优化问题.利用模糊数表示费用变化率和质量变化率,考虑模糊集的不同可能性水平,建立工程项目多目标模糊均衡优化模型,给出模型的求解方法和步骤,得到不同可能性水平下多目标优化问题的最优折衷解变化范围.优化方法使决策者能够根据决策风险的大小进行最优目标值的确定.     

Discrete time/cost trade-offs in project scheduling with time-switch constraints

The discrete time/cost trade-off problem assumes the duration of project activities to be discrete, non-increasing functions of the amount of a single non-renewable resource. The problem has been studied under three possible objectives. The so-called deadline problem involves the scheduling of project activities in order to minimize the total cost of the project while meeting a given deadline. The budget problem aims at minimizing the project duration without exceeding a given budget. A third objective involves the generation of the complete efficient time/cost profile over the set of feasible project durations. In this paper we describe a solution procedure for the deadline problem in which three special cases of time-switch constraints are involved. These constraints impose a specified starting time on the project activities and force them to be inactive during specified time periods. We propose a branch-and-bound algorithm and a heuristic procedure which both make use of a lower bound calculation for the discrete time/cost trade-off problem (without time-switch constraints). The procedures have been coded in Visual C++, version 6.0 under Windows 2000 and have been validated on a randomly generated problem set. We also discuss an illustrative example based on a real-life situation.     

Multi-objective time–cost trade-off in dynamic PERT networks using an interactive approach

We develop a multi-objective model for the time–cost trade-off problem in a dynamic PERT network using an interactive approach. The activity durations are exponentially distributed random variables and the new projects are generated according to a renewal process and share the same facilities. Thus, these projects cannot be analyzed independently. This dynamic PERT network is represented as a network of queues, where the service times represent the durations of the corresponding activities and the arrival stream to each node follows a renewal process. At the first stage, we transform the dynamic PERT network into a proper stochastic network and then compute the project completion time distribution by constructing a continuous-time Markov chain. At the second stage, the time–cost trade-off problem is formulated as a multi-objective optimal control problem that involves four conflicting objective functions. Then, the STEM method is used to solve a discrete-time approximation of the original problem. Finally, the proposed methodology is extended to the generalized Erlang activity durations.     

Robust scheduling and robustness measures for the discrete time/cost trade-off problem

Projects are often subject to various sources of uncertainties that have a negative impact on activity durations and costs. Therefore, it is crucial to develop effective approaches to generate robust project schedules that are less vulnerable to disruptions caused by uncontrollable factors. In this paper, we investigate the robust discrete time/cost trade-off problem, which is a multi-mode project scheduling problem with important practical relevance. We introduce surrogate measures that aim at providing an accurate estimate of the schedule robustness. The pertinence of each proposed measure is assessed through computational experiments. Using the insights revealed by the computational study, we propose a two-stage robust scheduling algorithm. Finally, we provide evidence that the proposed approach can be extended to solve a complex robust problem with tardiness penalties and earliness revenues.     

Robust scheduling of parallel machines with sequence-dependent set-up costs

In this paper we propose a robust approach for solving the scheduling problem of parallel machines with sequence-dependent set-up costs. In the literature, several mathematical models and solution methods have been proposed to solve such scheduling problems, but most of which are based on the strong assumption that input data are known in a deterministic way. In this paper, a fuzzy mathematical programming model is formulated by taking into account the uncertainty in processing times to provide the optimal solution as a trade-off between total set-up cost and robustness in demand satisfaction. The proposed approach requires the solution of a non-linear mixed integer programming (NLMIP), that can be formulated as an equivalent mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model. The resulting MILP model in real applications could be intractable due to its NP-hardness. Therefore, we propose a solution method technique, based on the solution of an approximated model, whose dimension is remarkably reduced with respect to the original counterpart. Numerical experiments conducted on the basis of data taken from a real application show that the average deviation of the reduced model solution over the optimum is less than 1.5%.     

装配型企业订货量分配与订单排产联合决策研究

针对供应商交货数量不确定环境下,多品种小批量装配型制造企业因生产物料不配套造成生产计划不可行甚至客户订单拖期的问题,从企业运作整体出发,考虑订货量分配决策对订单生产和交货的影响,以最小化采购成本和最小化订单排产相关成本为优化目标,在允许零部件拖期交货且供应商提供拖期价格折扣条件下,建立订货量分配与订单排产联合优化模型。针对可行解空间巨大、传统数学规划方法难以求解的问题,从增强搜索性能角度出发,设计基于自定义邻域搜索算子的局部搜索机制和基于随机与种群重构变异机制的改进粒子群算法的模型求解策略。通过应用实例对本文模型和算法进行了有效性验证和灵敏度分析,结果表明,相比于传统的分散决策方案,本文模型能够有效降低整体成本水平,引入的改进机制能够显著提升算法搜索性能,为企业供应风险下的运营决策制定提供理论参考。     

活动执行时间可提前的多模式反应性项目调度优化

研究不确定活动工期下活动执行时间可提前的多模式反应性项目调度问题。首先对反应性研究现状进行综述;其次建立以最小化反应性总成本为目标的优化模型;随后基于问题特点设计禁忌搜索算法;最后通过具体案例分析关键参数对反应性成本的影响,并得出结论:执行时间提前得到的反应性成本及完工时间明显低于执行时间不可提前的结果;随着项目推进,总成本及影响的活动数量总体上呈减小趋势,但项目完工时间在某些时刻维持不变;对于工期增加较大的活动,将其本身或紧前活动提前启动,或将其转换至活动工期较短的模式可降低反应性成本。研究可为不确定环境下反应性计划制定提供决策支持。     

模糊环境下的柔性工作车间调度模型的研究

本首先引入了柔性生产系统下的调度过程中存在的不确定性问题，接着对存在模糊操作时间间隔的柔性工作车间调度问题及相关概念进行了描述，并且给出了以最小makespan为目标的基于模糊逻辑和遗传优化的调度模型，最后通过实例验证了模型的可行性。     

Stochastic scheduling in an in-forest

Consider a problem of scheduling activities of a research and development project, where precedence relations of the activities constituting the project are represented by edges of an in-forest. Each activity is characterized by two parameters: a cost for attempting that activity and a probability that attempting the activity will lead to successful completion. The problem is to find a policy for attempting activities that minimizes the expected cost incurred until termination (successful completion of the project or the first activity failure). The main result of the paper is the design of an efficient algorithm to determine an optimal sequence in which to attempt the activities; a result which is established for linear and exponential utility functions. It is also shown that, unlike the related problem with out-forest precedence relations, there need not exist an optimal policy that is based on an index-rule for determining priority of edges by evaluating their successors.