The futures of OR

This paper considers possible futures for OR by building on the views of earlier writers and considering several different images that OR presents of itself, each of which has advantages and disadvantages. Ackoff's 1978 critique of OR is reviewed, together with his proposals for reform and, with the benefit of hindsight, his prognosis is examined. OR has survived, but it has changed, certainly in the UK, in some of the ways that he suggested. In the 1980s, the OR Society investigated the then state of OR practice via a commission that also expressed its thoughts about possible futures. It too got some things right and missed the target on others. Finally Checkland's ideas of root definitions are used to consider possible futures for the OR Society. This is all done in the belief that the future is not out there waiting to happen, but is something that we can create and influence.     

The intellectual journey of Russell Ackoff: from OR apostle to OR apostate

Russell Ackoff has had a distinguished career in operational research both as an academic and practitioner. His influence on the development of the discipline in the US and Britain in the 1950s and 1960s was considerable. Yet during the 1970s Ackoff registered increasing disillusion with the course and conduct of OR on both sides of the Atlantic. His rejection of the established mathematical paradigm and appeal for a wider social and political remit for the discipline was writ large at the UK Operational Research Society's conference in 1978. This paper, stimulated by the author's research into the history of British OR, analyses the evolution of Ackoff's thought in order to explain the sources of his disillusion and the short and longer term reactions to his recantation.     

On Measuring the Contribution of OR

Cost-benefit analysis offers a common-sense approach to measuring the contribution of OR but encounters difficulties which have been recognized by Ackoff. Ackoff's concept of adaptivity appears to offer a neat solution to those difficulties but can be seen to provide only a methodology and to lack a background theory. The authors argue that: in general the development of background theory should precede the development of a methodology; for OR the background theory required is one of decision-making; and that the social sciences provide the resource from which an adequate theory of decision-making can be developed.     

In Praise of Unicorns

The general thrust of this paper will be to put the recent ‘King is Dead’ controversy into its proper perspective, to review the consequences of Russell Ackoff's criticisms of the 1978 Conference, to look with a critical yet benevolent eye on university courses in the light of these criticisms and to suggest a menu of unsolved problems which might indicate exciting developments in our subject.The paper will start with a discussion of the three disasters which have hit Operational Research in the last twenty years. It is the contention of the speaker that the ‘King is Dead’ controversy was largely a controversy about nothing of significance and, by sapping the energies of those who could otherwise have been constructively employed, was itself one of these disasters (the other two can be left as exercises for the reader).The criticisms of Russell Ackoff were of a much more substantial nature. The author does not agree completely either with Ackoff's diagnosis or his suggestion of the way the patient should be treated. The paper will suggest ways in which the universities have reacted to these criticisms and the extent to which they are moving away from the mind-bending dullness and boredom which seems to run through so much Operational Research teaching. The place of universities in contemporary society will be discussed with particular emphasis on research and on the need to serve the community.We shall discuss an outline of some of the major unsolved problems which at present are largely ignored by Operational Research scientists. None of these problems involves or needs the development of formal mathematics and for that reason they are much more difficult than the normal problems on which mathematicians give their advice. The paper will try to convey the sense of intellectual excitement which is needed to be reintroduced into Operational Research, particularly in order to move away from the nervous, defensive and apologetic posture assumed by so many Operational Research scientists as a reaction to recent criticisms.     

A debate about the axiomatization of arithmetic: Otto Hölder against Robert Graßmann

This article provides a detailed discussion of Otto Hölder's ideas on the foundations of mathematics. It focuses on a paper he published in 1892 written in reaction to a book published in 1891 by Robert Graßmann, which Hölder saw as an attempt to axiomatize arithmetic. Hölder's paper is important for at least three reasons: First, it represents what might be called Hölder's research manifesto on the foundations of mathematics, containing a wealth of ideas which Hölder gradually developed in a variety of publications until the end of his life. Second, Hölder's analysis of R. Graßmann's foundational ideas provides an important assessment of the contribution of Hermann and Robert Graßmann to the axiomatization of arithmetic, a contribution which, though often mentioned, is itself still not widely acknowledged and not fully understood. Third, the effort of exposing the weak spots in R. Graßmann's ideas led Hölder to formulate the main problems confronting formal axiomatics: independence of the axioms, consistency, completeness, and the issue of the relationship between pure mathematics and its applications. The first part of this paper presents R. Graßmann's ideas on the foundations of mathematics as outlined in two closely related works published in 1872 and 1891. The second part focuses on Hölder's analysis of these ideas.     

A Kuhnian Crisis in Management Science?

A survey of the Journal of the O.R. Society in 1978 shows that Ackoff's papers were part of a quite widespread and often pessimistic debate about the practical success of O.R. A similar survey for 1968 shows, on the other hand, a widespread mood of optimism. It is suggested that O.R. is now in a period of crisis analogous to that described by Kuhn in the Natural Sciences, when the dominant framework of assumptions appears to fail in relation to important problems. When such failures persist, alternative frameworks are proposed challenging the hitherto accepted view, and an increasingly wide-ranging debate develops. Many of the features of such debates, as outlined by Kuhn, seem to be present in the current controversy within O.R. More specifically, it seems possible in O.R. and related fields to identify three rival sets of proposals, which may be labelled official, reformist (e.g. Ackoffian) and revolutionary. However, the debate in O.R. differs from that in the Natural Sciences because it is not just about the best means of understanding the empirical world. It is also about the type of social world to be constructed through the framework of assumptions adopted. Our view is that in the current debate, proponents of the reformist stance will probably win. However, this may be very much an interim solution.     

Subjective Information Modelling

Operational Research is viewed as an aid to decision making and it is believed that at present an increasing part of the decision maker's task is being shut off from the operational researcher because of the latter's inability to make a useful contribution. Particular problems are those in which the decision maker has to use his subjective judgement, intuition and foresight to enable him to make choices between alternatives. There has been a great deal of work over the last ten years in the field of technological forecasting in which attempts are made to qualify, quantify and aggregate such subjective judgements, for example, Delphi and Cross Impact Analysis.The object of this paper is to present a framework within which these new procedures and the traditional O.R. approaches may be brought together. We feel that this may open the way for an improvement in decision making and an expanded role for O.R.     

Social Limits to Planning

Professor Ackoff's planning paradigm of participation, continuity and holism is reviewed in terms of the practical problems of attempting to implement these ideal principles. His proposal of using the paradigm to design ideal-seeking systems is compared with the market-based approaches advocated by Professor Friedman. That comparison draws on Professor Hirsch's critique of the efficiency and moral content of the market and uses that critique on Professor Ackoff's suggested alternatives.     

Corporate Planning and Its Use of O.R. in the N.C.B.: A Personal View

Moving from Operational Research to Corporate Planning within one organisation is a rather modest change, which nevertheless leads to a different perspective. While still an advisory function, Corporate Planning, to be successful, has to maintain itself at the centre of a `messy' system tackling `messy' problems. Holding on to a clear strategy in such circumstances is not only difficult but vital. The success of the strategy depends on its robustness and ability to adapt to new circumstances. Recent debates in the O.R. literature have focused on the importance of robustness and the nature of uncertainty using the paradigms of rational and bureaucratic processes. This is a useful perspective from which to view our activities and the relative roles of Operational Research and Corporate Planning, either separately or together. The term `mature' O.R. is used to differentiate research that has been built up over many years in the N.C.B. from the problem solving activity often used to characterise O.R. The challenge is to prevent maturity developing into old age.     

Better Than Survival: The Need for Research to Strengthen Planning in Industry and the Public Service

Editor's NoteThis is an invited contribution in our occasional series O.R. Reflections, in which are presented essentially personal views of O.R., based on contributors' own experience. What follows is a slightly revised version of the author's inaugural lecture as Professor of Systems and Operational Research at the University of Warwick on 10th May 1982.The author draws on his experience in industry and in an international research institute (IIASA) o restate the importance of strategic planning if organisations are to do better than mere survival. He argues the need for problem-oriented, inter-disciplinary research to support such activity and suggests that such research, directed towards investment and strategic policy, has a potential value which is quite out of proportion to the money currently invested in it.     

Lessons for O.R. from the World of Banking

This paper will be of interest to the reader concerned with O.R. in banking and to the more general reader concerned with the successful development of O.R. The paper describes and analyses the complex historical development of the O.R. Group in the National Westminster Bank, which, since 1966, has grown into one of the leading O.R. groups in finance. As well as providing a new and original documentation of the type of problem areas and approaches that have been examined in the relatively short history of O.R. in banking, the paper draws on the experience of O.R. at NatWest and that of other O.R. groups in other European banks in order to identify the factors which determine whether or not an O.R. group will develop successfully.     

The beginnings of the R.L. Moore school of topology

The roots of the R.L. Moore school of point set topology were formed around 1900, with Moore's most direct influences coming from his University of Texas teacher, G.B. Halsted, and from his graduate school teachers at the University of Chicago, mainly O. Veblen and E.H. Moore. It was recognized as a school by the 1930s as Moore and his students achieved recognition for their work and as this group interacted with the Polish school of topology. In addition to the mathematical subject, the other main factor that helped to identify this group as a school was the distinctive method of teaching Moore used to introduce the subject to students.     

A Materialist Analysis of Operational Research

Accounts of the development and practice of operational research have commonly stressed its timeless universality as a method for rational decision-making. In this paper operational research is seen as one element in the managerial response to problems of complexity and uncertainty within an economic system characterised by institutionalised conflict. Both the material and ideological functions of ‘management science’ in private and public enterprise are analysed, and characteristics are identified of an emergent ‘workers science’. Editor's Note The title of this paper contrasts the materialistic approach with the idealistic approach, and the content of the paper disowns the latter. Evidently there are alternative but overtly political terms for both adjectives.It would be stupid if O.R. were to ignore the political facts of life which play so great a part in the decisions and policies with which O.R. is concerned. But, as the authors acknowledge, other interpretations of history than those presented here are at least possible.Contributions offering alternative schemata, or based on other paradigms, are invited and will be given careful consideration.     

Relating value-focused thinking and interactive planning

Value-focused thinking, using the dialogue decision process (DDP), and interactive planning appear to be two totally unrelated processes for making decisions. As this paper shows, new results on the interpretation of utility functions and new ways of thinking about downstream decisions allows us to reinterpret interactive planning as an ideal-focused decision process which is theoretically equivalent to DDP's value-focused decision process. But Ackoff's ideal-focused decision process may be more natural for certain organizational decision settings.     

The Art of Course Planning: Soft O.R. in Action

This article is a case study described from two viewpoints: that of an analyst and that of a ‘decision-maker’. It describes the use of two ‘soft O.R.’ methods in helping the members of a university O.R. group to plan revisions to a postgraduate Diploma course, resulting in the implementation of an improved course. One author conducted the exercise while the other was a member of the client group. Given that case studies are usually written by the analyst alone, it is hoped that a client's eye-view will be useful as feedback for practitioners and can also introduce some of the concepts and terminology of soft O.R. to those engaged in more mathematical O.R. activities.     

The Impact of O.R. on the Design of a Float Glass Line

The float glass process was invented by Pilkington and is steadily taking over from other older methods. Glass is produced in a continuous ribbon and at any one time this will be a certain thickness, width and colour.The Market place requires a variety of sizes, thicknesses and colours. A good float line design is one which achieves customer service at an economic price. Float lines are substantial investments—the latest U.K. line cost over £75m.The O.R. Department at Pilkington has been involved in the design of a number of new lines and several upgrading schemes over the last 10 years.The role adopted has been as part of a multi-disciplinary design team involving Engineering, Production, Marketing, R&D, O.R. and Industrial Engineering representatives.The design team has the difficult task of fitting the best design of line to a particular situation. This process is usually market-dominated, although the site available, cost and layout factors are also important.The first stage involves an analysis of the market to be supplied and its implications for the design. Then the detailed engineering layout and equipment design can take place. In practice, decision-making is usually a cyclic process to obtain a match between the market and the design. Although a variety of conventional O.R. techniques, particularly simulation, have been used, perhaps O.R.'s main involvement has been the provision of numerate and relatively simple model-building skills.     

O.R. Education — A Survey of Young O.R. Workers

This paper presents the results of a survey into O.R. education that was conducted with the help of those attending the Young O.R. Conference (YOR II) held at Nottingham University in March 1982. The results of a workshop debate held at the conference into the direction of O.R. education are also discussed.The conclusions drawn are that O.R. education in this country appears to be quite successful but that it is failing to deal satisfactorily with a number of issues. These issues relate to keeping up-to-date with changes in computer technology and their impact upon O.R. workers; the teaching of methodology to deal with ill-defined problems; preparation for the political and working environment of organizations; and the fostering of desirable personal characteristics.     

How Relevant is Operational Research to Development? The Case of Kenyan Industry

This paper proposes that the debate over O.R.'s role in development can be advanced by looking at a specific industrial environment. The Kenyan example suggests that for O.R. to make a contribution to this developing society it must: first, be defined as broadly as possible so as to include the most basic problem-solving techniques, and second, contribute to the diffusing of these techniques throughout the economy. O.R. should be viewed less as the province of an elite group of specialists— and more as a common resource available to managers at any level of industry. O.R. educators in developing nations can "democratise" quantitative techniques by incorporating them into such traditional business disciplines as accounting, marketing, and production. These courses should stress problem-solving and rely on cases drawn from local experiences. The paper ends by describing a pilot project, the Case Research and Documentation Centre, which is designed to promote more pragmatic management education and research in Kenya.     

On the Nature of OR — Entering the Fray

In 1980 a seminar of operational researchers and practitioners from a variety of different countries concluded that there was a remarkable consensus about the way that the process of operational research and systems analysis should be understood and practised. Since then the development of new methods has continued apace, stimulated by interaction with the social sciences and paradigms other than natural science. This paper enters the debate, started in this journal, about the nature of OR's status as science or technology. It recognizes the historic claims of science on OR, but it suggests that for ‘private’ consumption, technology will prove more fruitful, and for ‘public’ consumption practitioners will increasingly adopt the label ‘consultant’. Ackoff's original six-step method of OR is updated to reflect current OR practice. The process suggested acknowledges the importance of context, socio-political factors and the growing role of facilitation.