O.R. Applications in Industry and Problems of Industrialisation of a Developing Economy with Special Reference to India

The paper has two distinct parts. The first part reviews industrial applications of O.R. in developing countries in general and India in particular. Based on the analysis, the paper suggests concrete steps for further use of operational research in industry.The second part of the paper deals critically with the problems of industrialisation leading to a specific industrial structure in the economy of a developing country. Analysing various relevant criteria for industrialisation of developing economies the paper outlines a methodology suitable for modelling the problem. It then attempts to identify the prerequisites for successful use of O.R. in the multicriteria problem of industrialisation. The paper also discusses the role that national and international agencies can play in bringing about more meaningful applications of O.R. in developing economies.     

The Search for Appropriate O.R.: A Review of Operational Research in Developing Countries

This paper is a review of the literature relating to the application of O.R. in developing countries. The paper attempts to identify the special factors which affect decision problems in developing countries. Some desirable characteristics for O.R. in this context are outlined. The paper then summarises the results of a review of published studies, and some criticisms are made of current O.R. work.     

O.R. Education — A Survey of Young O.R. Workers

This paper presents the results of a survey into O.R. education that was conducted with the help of those attending the Young O.R. Conference (YOR II) held at Nottingham University in March 1982. The results of a workshop debate held at the conference into the direction of O.R. education are also discussed.The conclusions drawn are that O.R. education in this country appears to be quite successful but that it is failing to deal satisfactorily with a number of issues. These issues relate to keeping up-to-date with changes in computer technology and their impact upon O.R. workers; the teaching of methodology to deal with ill-defined problems; preparation for the political and working environment of organizations; and the fostering of desirable personal characteristics.     

How Relevant is Operational Research to Development? The Case of Kenyan Industry

This paper proposes that the debate over O.R.'s role in development can be advanced by looking at a specific industrial environment. The Kenyan example suggests that for O.R. to make a contribution to this developing society it must: first, be defined as broadly as possible so as to include the most basic problem-solving techniques, and second, contribute to the diffusing of these techniques throughout the economy. O.R. should be viewed less as the province of an elite group of specialists— and more as a common resource available to managers at any level of industry. O.R. educators in developing nations can "democratise" quantitative techniques by incorporating them into such traditional business disciplines as accounting, marketing, and production. These courses should stress problem-solving and rely on cases drawn from local experiences. The paper ends by describing a pilot project, the Case Research and Documentation Centre, which is designed to promote more pragmatic management education and research in Kenya.     

Experiences with Using Expert Systems in O.R.

Increased awareness of expert systems technology, and the availability of relevant software, has tempted many O.R. groups to investigate the expert systems approach. This paper considers the strategies open to O.R. groups interested in employing expert systems, reviews some of the relevant software, and discusses what those O.R. groups who have already investigated the use of expert systems methods are actually doing.Some of the authors' experience of developing expert systems is discussed. The development of an expert system that helps bankers analyse company accounts is presented. The use of expert system methods as vehicles for decision analysis, and the possibilities for producing systems that act as O.R. consultants are also discussed.     

The Prospect for O.R. in the Nigerian Government Service—An Administrators' Viewpoint

The paper reports the results of interviews with senior government administrators in Nigeria in which they were asked a range of questions about their own work and about the problems that are likely to be encountered in trying to introduce operational research into the government service. It is thus in contrast with most papers on O.R. in developing countries, which are written primarily from the viewpoint of practitioners. The administrators confirmed that there was a wide range of problems recognized as being suitable for the O.R. approach, and identified some of the barriers to the introduction of an effective O.R. service.     

The Impact of Operational Research on Agriculture

The paper shows that agriculture is one of the United Kingdom's largest industries. It would therefore be expected that O.R. could have made a significant contribution to decision making. But achievements in practice have been disappointingly small. The industry comprises of a large number of small individual businesses which do not permit specialisation in management functions. Consequently, technical advice and much R and D is provided from public funds. O.R. applications for agriculture have mainly been developed by Universities, Colleges, State Advisory Services and QUANGOS.The paper discusses some techniques used in agriculture—linear programming, dynamic programming and simulation—and outlines some problems encountered with these. Other techniques have had limited uptake and application. Reasons for the disappointing impact of O.R. are discussed as a set of problems-those specific to farmers and their systems; those specific to computer use; problems in recruiting and training O.R. specialists and problems in communication.     

A Teachers' Network for Third World O.R.

The progress of O.R. in developing countries has been hampered by the lack of appropriate educational materials. A contribution has been made with the writing of a book of case exercises. Several teachers in different countries have tried the book with a variety of students. The feedback has been encouraging. Initiatives are being taken, supported by IFORS, to build a wider network of teachers of O.R. for developing countries.     

Lessons for O.R. from the World of Banking

This paper will be of interest to the reader concerned with O.R. in banking and to the more general reader concerned with the successful development of O.R. The paper describes and analyses the complex historical development of the O.R. Group in the National Westminster Bank, which, since 1966, has grown into one of the leading O.R. groups in finance. As well as providing a new and original documentation of the type of problem areas and approaches that have been examined in the relatively short history of O.R. in banking, the paper draws on the experience of O.R. at NatWest and that of other O.R. groups in other European banks in order to identify the factors which determine whether or not an O.R. group will develop successfully.     

Investigating Outpatient Departments: Implementable Policies and Qualitative Approaches

Modelling the operation of outpatient departments, with the aim of devising an appointment system that would reduce patient waiting time, was an early application area for O.R. Yet outpatients still spend an excessive amount of time waiting. This paper reports an investigation into the operation of outpatient departments. The attempt to arrive at a sensible policy is considered at length. It is concluded that the determination of an implementable policy, the education of participants into acceptance of that policy, and monitoring any policy once implemented are of paramount importance. The approach taken is briefly compared with qualitative and soft approaches.     

Real-World O.R./M.S. Applications in Journals

In this paper, we present the results of a study of real-world applications of O.R./M.S. as seen in journals. Five leading journals in the field are surveyed, and real-world application articles are classified using a two dimensional framework consisting of orientation and decision. The orientation dimension separates strategically oriented applications with long-term implications and tactically oriented applications with medium- and short-term implications. The decision dimension refers to the type of decision in the application-largely structured or largely unstructured. The major O.R./M.S. topics are placed in the resulting four quadrants, and articles published in the four most recent volumes of the five journals are classified. Based on the results of this survey, the thrust and shortcomings of implementation research are discussed. Some measures for enhancing publication of field-based research are also proposed.     

Inconsistencies and S.O.R. Convergence for the Discrete Neumann Problem

The behaviour of S.O.R. iterations for linear equations AU =Bis described for the case when A is singular. Small inconsistenciesmay arise in practical application, for example in systems derivedfrom Neumann problems. In that case the S.O.R. iterations donot converge. A simple transformation is presented under whichthe iterations converge to an approximate solution of AU = B,provided that the singularity of A is of a simple type. A practicalway of measuring the appropriate convergence rate is also described.For problems with property (A) and consistent ordering the optimumacceleration parameter is unaffected by the simple singularityof A. The behaviour of the iterations when A has singularitiesof general type is also described.     

Corporate Planning and Its Use of O.R. in the N.C.B.: A Personal View

Moving from Operational Research to Corporate Planning within one organisation is a rather modest change, which nevertheless leads to a different perspective. While still an advisory function, Corporate Planning, to be successful, has to maintain itself at the centre of a `messy' system tackling `messy' problems. Holding on to a clear strategy in such circumstances is not only difficult but vital. The success of the strategy depends on its robustness and ability to adapt to new circumstances. Recent debates in the O.R. literature have focused on the importance of robustness and the nature of uncertainty using the paradigms of rational and bureaucratic processes. This is a useful perspective from which to view our activities and the relative roles of Operational Research and Corporate Planning, either separately or together. The term `mature' O.R. is used to differentiate research that has been built up over many years in the N.C.B. from the problem solving activity often used to characterise O.R. The challenge is to prevent maturity developing into old age.     

The Changing Role of O.R.

The authors set out to consider the activities of their own O.R. group at British Airways in the light of Russ Ackoff's papers delivered at the 1978 ORS Conference, but the paper has developed into a discussion of Ackoff's ideas from the viewpoint of an in-house industrial O.R. group that has had considerable success in implementation and has thought a great deal about what it is trying to do. Particularly relevant is the emphasis placed by this O.R. group on highly interactive planning models and systems and on an evolutionary approach to development. Some attempt is made to put Ackoff's ideas into an historical perspective and his main points are discussed one by one. The authors are in sympathy with the direction Ackoff is pressing, but not with the gloom his paper has generated in some quarters.     

Operational research in development banking in India

The paper defines development banking as practised by major Indian commercial banks since 1969. It then goes on to discuss how OR can be useful in tackling problems of development banking. Planning, operational and organisational design problems in relation to development banking are discussed. Several case studies in each area where OR has been applied are discussed. Potential areas of application of OR in each problem class are also identified. The paper then summarizes the experiences gained so far and recommends the action to be taken for the more effective application of OR in developing economies.     

Systems Analysis and the Computer

The words ‘systems analysis’ are used in at least two senses in the literature. Whilst the general nature of the topic is well understood in the O.R. community, the nature of the term as used by computer scientists is less familiar. In this paper, the nature of systems analysis as it relates to computer-based systems is examined from the point of view that the computer system is an automaton embedded in a human system, and some facets of this are explored. It is concluded that O.R. analysts and computer analysts have things to learn from each other and that this ought to be reflected in their education. The important role played by change in the design of systems is also highlighted, and it is concluded that, whilst the application of techniques developed in the ‘artificial intelligence’ field have considerable relevance to constructing automata able to adapt to change in the environment, study of the human factors affecting the overall systems within which the automata are embedded has an even more important role.     

Quantitative Forecasting—the State of the Art: Econometric Models

Econometric model building for forecasting has developed substantially over the past 15 years. Nevertheless, operational researchers have neglected these new developments. This paper defines nine stages the forecaster must go through when developing an econometric model. Each stage is discussed with reference to the most recent research. The complexity of econometric model building requires the forecaster to adopt a modelling strategy. Two have been proposed in the literature; one moves from a specific model to a more general version, the second goes from the general to the specific. Five recent O.R. studies using econometric methodology are then evaluated, highlighting the common areas of weakness. They are those areas that econometricians have paid most attention to in their recent research. The paper then surveys the effectiveness of econometric models compared to alternative approaches, concluding with some recommendations to the O.R. worker in forecasting. In particular, it recommends that more attempts are made to develop econometric models for O.R. applications.     

Lessons for O.R. from A.I.: A Scheduling Case Study

This paper compares operational research (O.R.) with the currently fashionable topic of artificial intelligence (A.I.) at a detailed level. A.I. concepts, techniques and history are summarized, and O.R. and A.I. approaches compared. A case study-the development of a potential aid to scheduling repair jobs on RAF squadrons—is described. The paper shows where A.I. concepts and techniques were used in the prototype program, known as the Fault Identification & Expediting Repair (FIXER) system. Finally, some lessons for O.R. are drawn.