BOOTSTRAP MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF THE PARAMETER IN SPECTRAL DENSITY OF STATIONARY PROCESSES

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Limit theorems in the context of multivariate long-range dependence

This article considers multivariate linear processes whose components are either short- or long-range dependent. The functional central limit theorems for the sample mean and the sample autocovariances for these processes are investigated, paying special attention to the mixed cases of short- and long-range dependent series. The resulting limit processes can involve multivariate Brownian motion marginals, operator fractional Brownian motions and matrix-valued versions of the so-called Rosenblatt process.     

巴斯卡分布参数的Bayes估计

给出巴斯卡分布在参数具有验前β（1／2,0）分布时产品可靠度的Bayes估计,Bayes置信下限以及参数具有含超参数的验前Beta分布时可靠度的多层Bayes估计,并进一步得到几何分布的相应估计。     

Recursive parameter estimation: convergence

We consider estimation procedures which are recursive in the sense that each successive estimator is obtained from the previous one by a simple adjustment. We propose a wide class of recursive estimation procedures for the general statistical model and study convergence.      

Wavelet-based analysis of non-Gaussian long-range dependent processes and estimation of the hurst parameter

In this contribution, the statistical performance of the wavelet-based estimation procedure for the Hurst parameter is studied for non-Gaussian long-range dependent processes obtained from point transformations of Gaussian processes. The statistical properties of the wavelet coefficients and the estimation performance are compared both for processes having the same covariance but different marginal distributions and for processes having the same covariance and same marginal distributions but obtained from different point transformations, analyzed using mother wavelets with different number of vanishing moments. It is shown that the reduction of the dependence range from long to short by increasing the number of vanishing moments, observed for Gaussian processes, and at the origin of the popularity of the wavelet-based estimator, does not hold in general for non-Gaussian processes. Crucially, it is also observed that the Hermite rank of the point transformation impacts significantly the statistical properties of the wavelet coefficients and the estimation performance and also that processes having identical marginal distributions and covariance function can yet yield significantly different estimation performance. These results are interpreted in the light of central and noncentral limit theorems that are fundamental when dealing with long-range dependent processes. Moreover, it will be shown that, on condition that estimation is performed using a range of scales restricted to the coarsest practically available, an approximate, yet analytical and simple to use in practice, formula can be proposed for the evaluation of the variance of the wavelet-based estimator of the Hurst parameter.     

A functional non-central limit theorem for multiple-stable processes with long-range dependence

A functional limit theorem is established for the partial-sum process of a class of stationary sequences which exhibit both heavy tails and long-range dependence. The stationary sequence is constructed using multiple stochastic integrals with heavy-tailed marginal distribution. Furthermore, the multiple stochastic integrals are built upon a large family of dynamical systems that are ergodic and conservative, leading to the long-range dependence phenomenon of the model. The limits constitute a new class of self-similar processes with stationary increments. They are represented by multiple stable integrals, where the integrands involve the local times of intersections of independent stationary stable regenerative sets.     

New algorithm for optimal parameter estimation with linear constraints

This paper presents a new algorithm for optimal parameter estimation problems with linear constraints. The algorithm developed is based on least absolute-value approximations. The problem is solved first using a least-error-square technique, where we add to the cost function the equality constraints via Lagrange multipliers, to obtain a good estimate for the residuals of the measurements, having gained this information, we choose a number of measurements with the smallest residuals. This number equals the number of parameters to be estimated minus the number of constraints. Using these measurements together with the constraints, we obtain a number of observations equal to the number of parameters to be estimated. By using this technique, we show that there is no need to either iterate or use linear programming to obtain the estimation.This work was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Grant A4146.     

On Estimating the Cumulant Generating Function of Linear Processes

We compare two estimates of the cumulant generating function of a stationary linear process. The first estimate is based on the empirical moment generating function. The second estimate uses the linear representation of the process and the empirical moment generating function of the innovations. Asymptotic expressions for the mean square errors are derived under short- and long-range dependence. For long-memory processes, the estimate based on the linear representation turns out to have a better rate of convergence. Thus, exploiting the linear structure of the process leads to an infinite gain in asymptotic efficiency.     

Efficient and accurate spectral method for the time-fractional dual-phase-lag heat transfer model and its parameter estimation

In the current paper, a heat transfer model is suggested based on a time-fractional dual-phase-lag (DPL) model. We discuss the model in two parts, the direct problem and the inverse problem. Firstly, for solving it, the finite difference/Legendre spectral method is constructed. In the temporal direction, we employ the weighted and shifted Grünwald approximation, which can achieve second order convergence. In the spatial direction, the Legendre spectral method is used, it can obtain spectral accuracy. The stability and convergence are theoretically analyzed. For the inverse problem, the Bayesian method is used to construct an algorithm to estimate the four parameters for the model, namely, the time-fractional order α, the time-fractional order β, the delay time τ_T, and the relaxation time τ_q. Next, numerical experiments are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of our scheme, with the values of τ_q and τ_T for processed meat employed. We also make a comparison with another method. The data obtained for the direct problem are used in the parameter estimation. The paper provides an accurate and efficient numerical method for the time-fractional DPL model.     

二项分布参数多层Bayes和E Bayes估计的性质

讨论无失效数据下二项分布参数E Bayes估计和多层Bayes估计的性质,证明二项参数的多层Bayes估计和E Bayes估计渐近相等,且E Bayes估计值小于多层Bayes估计值.     

Finite difference spectral approximation for the time‐space fractional telegraph equation and its parameter estimation

The object of this paper is to present the numerical solution of the time‐space fractional telegraph equation. The proposed method is based on the finite difference scheme in temporal direction and Fourier spectral method in spatial direction. The fast Fourier transform (FFT) technique is applied to practical computation. The stability and convergence analysis are strictly proven, which shows that this method is stable and convergent with (2?α) order accuracy in time and spectral accuracy in space. Moreover, the Levenberg‐Marquardt (L‐M) iterative method is employed for the parameter estimation. Finally, some numerical examples are given to confirm the theoretical analysis.     

利用样本分位数的Logistic分布参数的渐近置信估计

基于Logistic分布的若干个样本分位数 ,利用线性回归模型建立Logistic分布位置参数及尺度参数的渐近正态且渐近无偏估计量 ,得到分布参数的渐近置信估计。     

Pareto分布形状参数的E-Bayes估计和多层Bayes估计及其应用

给出了参数的E-Bayes估计的定义,对Pareto分布在尺度参数已知时,在平方损失下给出了形状参数的E-Bayes估计和多层Bayes估计,并且用Monte Carlo方法给出了模拟算例.最后,结合高尔夫球手收入数据的实际问题进行了计算,结果表明本文提出的方法可行且便于应用.     

Signal estimation using an array of recorders

This paper considers the problem of signal estimation in the case where the signal is received by an array of recorders. Because of the spatial configuration of the array the individual recorders will, at any instant of time, receive lagged forms of the signal. Moreover the lags in question will often be frequency dependent. An estimation procedure is proposed and its asymptotic properties investigated. The optimum orientation of such arrays is also discussed.     

复合LINEX对称损失下BurrⅫ分布参数的Bayes估计

在复合LINEX对称损失函数下,研究BurrⅫ分布参数的Bayes估计和E-Bayes估计,并通过随机数值模拟检验参数的Bayes估计和E-Bayes估计的合理性及优良性.     

A parameter estimation scheme for a class of sequential hybrid systems

It may happen that the equations governing the response of dynamical systems have some parameters whose values may not be known a priori and have to be obtained using parameter estimation schemes. In this article, we present a parameter estimation scheme for a class of sequential hybrid systems. By hybrid systems, we refer to those systems whose response is described by different governing equations corresponding to various regimes/modes of operation along with some criteria to switch between the same. In a sequential hybrid system, the different modes are arranged in a specific sequence and the system can switch from a given mode to either the previous mode or the following mode in this sequence. Here, we consider those systems whose governing equations consist of ordinary differential equations and algebraic equations. The conditions for switching between the various modes (referred to as transition conditions) are in the form of linear inequalities involving the system output. We shall first consider the case where the transition conditions are known completely. We present a parameter update scheme along with sufficient conditions that will guarantee bounded parameter estimation errors. Then, we shall consider the case where the transition conditions are not known in the sense that some parameters in these conditions are not known. We present a parameter estimation scheme for this case. We illustrate the performance of the parameter estimation scheme in both cases with some examples.     

Adaptive density estimation of stationary β-mixing and τ-mixing processes

We propose an algorithm to estimate the common density s of a stationary process X ₁, ..., _{X n} . We suppose that the process is either β or τ-mixing. We provide a model selection procedure based on a generalization of Mallows’ C _p and we prove oracle inequalities for the selected estimator under a few prior assumptions on the collection of models and on the mixing coefficients. We prove that our estimator is adaptive over a class of Besov spaces, namely, we prove that it achieves the same rates of convergence as in the i.i.d. framework.