共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 62 毫秒
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股票操作中的选时即决定何时买进何时卖出是人们进行操作时最为关心的,本文运用最优停止及时间序更的理论和方法,给出了一种较优的具体操作方法。 相似文献
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本文研究了一维扩散过程的最优停止问题,论证了W iener过程和几何布朗运动是F e ller过程,同时给出了一般扩散过程的处理方法. 相似文献
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讨论了有限时区上的最优转换和停止问题,它是一类同时具备脉冲控制和最优停止特征的最优控制问题.问题的最优值以及最优转换和停止决策可以由具有混合障碍的多维反射倒向随机微分方程的解来刻画.接着考虑了形式更一般的反射倒向随机微分方程并证明了方程解的存在唯一性. 相似文献
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钟伟 《数学年刊A辑(中文版)》2010,31(2):143-160
讨论了有限时区上的最优转换和停止问题,它是一类同时具备脉冲控制和最优停止特征的最优控制问题.问题的最优值以及最优转换和停止决策可以由具有混合障碍的多维反射倒向随机微分方程的解来刻画.接着考虑了形式更一般的反射倒向随机微分方程并证明了方程解的存在唯一性. 相似文献
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本文在Loeb空间上得到了右连续左半上连续的随机过程的SRC提升.证明了一个内过程的S-最优停止的存在性,并得到了它的结构性表示.最后证明了一个过程SRC提升的S-最优停止的标准部分即为对应标准过程的最优停止,在Loeb空间上推广了[8]中的结果. 相似文献
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本文在带注资的经典风险模型的最优分红控制过程的基础上,进一步引入最优停止策略.目标是要找到最优的停止时刻,使得到该时刻为止,股东的折现分红与带有一定费用的折现注资二者之差的期望值最大化.通过建立值函数V(x)满足的HJB方程,我们找到了最优停止时刻τ~*.特别的,当索赔服从指数分布时,通过计算最终得到了值函数V(x)和最优停止时刻.τ~*的清晰表达式. 相似文献
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基于GARCH股票市场模型技术指标的理论分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文根据股标市场的动量指标RSI和ROC构造了相应的统计量,并研究了GARCH模型作为真实股票市场上述统计量的概率性质,证明了在给定条件下这些统计量的平稳性和大数定律成立.这为股价的技术分析提供了理论依据. 相似文献
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小波在股市数据分析中的应用 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本文把股票日收益率时间序列看作一维时间信号 ,构造了新的小波母函数作为滤波器 ,对此时间信号做滤波处理 ,消除了数据的奇异性 ,从而可以宏观地预测股票日收益率走势 . 相似文献
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中国证券市场股指波动的条件异方差特性分析 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
股指的波动具有持续性、集聚性 ,如何进行判别 ?本文用 Garch模型理论探讨沪深股指的这种条件异方差特征 ,进一步分析波动是否影响股指未来变化 ,以及股市对利好、利空的消息是否存在不对称的反映。同时 ,比较不同类型的股指的共性及差异 ,并对上述现象作了解释和说明。 相似文献
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This article develops a model to examine the equilibrium behavior of the time inconsistency problem in a continuous time economy with stochastic and endogenized dis-tortion. First, the authors introduce the notion of sequentially rational equilibrium, and show that the time inconsistency problem may be solved with trigger reputation strategies for stochastic setting. The conditions for the existence of sequentially rational equilibrium are provided. Then, the concept of sequentially rational stochastically stable equilibrium is introduced. The authors compare the relative stability between the cooperative behavior and uncooperative behavior, and show that the cooperative equilibrium in this monetary policy game is a sequentially rational stochastically stable equilibrium and the uncooper-ative equilibrium is sequentially rational stochastically unstable equilibrium. In the long run, the zero inflation monetary policies are inherently more stable than the discretion rules, and once established, they tend to persist for longer periods of the time. 相似文献
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本文运用 CJ统计量与一步 Markov转移概率矩阵研究了中国沪、深两市的一期价格行为 .实证结果表明 :大约自 1997年以来 ,一期价格行为表现出很强的随机性 . 相似文献
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This article develops a model to examine the equilibrium behavior of the time inconsistency problem in a continuous time economy with stochastic and endogenized distortion. First, the authors introduce the notion of sequentially rational equilibrium, and show that the time inconsistency problem may be solved with trigger reputation strategies for stochastic setting. The conditions for the existence of sequentially rational equilibrium are provided. Then, the concept of sequentially rational stochastically stable equilibrium is introduced. The authors compare the relative stability between the cooperative behavior and uncooperative behavior, and show that the cooperative equilibrium in this monetary policy game is a sequentially rational stochastically stable equilibrium and the uncooperative equilibrium is sequentially rational stochastically unstable equilibrium. In the long run, the zero inflation monetary policies are inherently more stable than the discretion rules, and once established, they tend to persist for longer periods of the time. 相似文献
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MARK N. MAUNDER 《Natural Resource Modeling》2003,16(4):465-475
ABSTRACT. I describe integrated analysis and Bayesian analysis, which have been two of the most influential paradigms in fisheries stock assessment during the last two decades of the twentieth century. These two paradigms have generally been considered complementary, rather than competing. However, recent advances in integrated analysis, including the special case of meta‐analysis, have made Bayesian analysis somewhat redundant. I describe how data used to create priors for use in Bayesian analysis can be integrated directly into the analyses. This provides a much more convenient way of accurately including the information and associated uncertainty into the analyses. I discuss how there is still a need to describe the uncertainty and suggest that research should focus on the most appropriate methods for doing this. 相似文献