Executive views concerning decision support tools

Support tools for strategic-level decision-making have become increasingly popular. This study investigates the role of OR/MS tools in today’s strategic-level decision support tool market. Executives working in Finland’s 500 largest companies were asked about the decision support tools they use when making major decisions. The responses received indicated that executives actively use a variety of tools, and an average of five different strategic-level tools. Approximately 10% of the tools used could be identified as OR/MS type, these often suit the needs of larger companies with strategic logistical or production functions and compared to other tools, have a specific profile. Executives see advantages in using tools that provide cognitive, collaboration and communication possibilities, and also in using tools that make processes more efficient. OR methodologies have influenced some of the other tools on the market, but ‘soft OR’ tool usage could not be identified. Tools which support creativity are needed.     

A closer look at the economic-environmental disparities for regional development in China

Although China has harvested the fruits of its rapid economic growth over a period of several decades, it has encountered serious environmental problems, an important one being air pollution in the form of soot, dust, and sulfur dioxide. In considering the concept of ‘green-GDP’, this paper analyzes China’s regional development by examining its economic performance while taking into account various environmental factors. In addition to computing technical efficiency for 31 regions in China, a cross-efficiency measure is applied to differentiate the genuine DMUs. ‘Overall’ efficient regions and ‘false positive’ ones are recognized by a false positive index (FPI). It is found that the coastal regions perform on average better than the inland regions both economically and environmentally. For inefficient regions, the benchmark should be those regions with high cross-efficiency mean scores (e.g., Guangdong) rather than those with high self-appraisal scores (e.g., Shanghai). A cross-tabulation illustrating the difference between GDP-oriented performance and Pollution-oriented performance shows that the coastal regions make up the dominant proportion in terms of the benchmarks for economic-environmental optimization.     

Critical rationalism in practice: Strategies to manage subjectivity in OR investigations

The philosophical position referred to as critical rationalism (CR) is potentially important to OR because it holds out the possibility of supporting OR’s claim to offer managers a scientifically ‘rational’ approach. However, as developed by Karl Popper, and subsequently extended by David Miller, CR can only support practice (deciding what to do, how to act) in a very limited way; concentrating on the critical application of deductive logic, the crucial role of subjective judgements in making technical and moral choices are ignored or are at least left underdeveloped. By reflecting on the way that managers, engineers, administrators and other professionals take decisions in practice, three strategies are identified for handling the inevitable subjectivity in practical decision-making. It is argued that these three strategies can be understood as attempts to emulate the scientific process of achieving intersubjective consensus, a process inherent in CR. The perspective developed in the paper provides practitioners with a way of understanding their clients’ approach to decision-making and holds out the possibility of making coherent the claim that they are offering advice on how to apply a scientific approach to decision-making; it presents academics with some philosophical challenges and some new avenues for research.     

Operations research practice on logistics management in Taiwan: An academic view

The opinions of logistics educators in Taiwan on OR practices in the domestic logistics industry are explored in this research. In this study, questionnaires were given to 42 pre-screened educators at 10 logistics departments and graduate institutes. According to the 37 valid returned questionnaires, 70% of the responding educators believe the major source of OR techniques in Taiwan’s logistics industry originates from individual employee training, while 92% believe OR is not widely used primarily because companies are unfamiliar with OR techniques. OR techniques were considered helpful in solving problems by 73%. Generally speaking, familiarity with OR techniques is not associated with implementation of OR techniques by educators. Additionally, logistics educators express concern about insufficient training for logistics students in Taiwan. However, they are optimistic about the logistics industry’s willingness to more actively adopt OR techniques in Taiwan in the next two years.     

Operational research and ethics: A literature review

Any human activity raises ethical questions, questions about ‘good’ and ‘right’ ways to act and to live; or to put it differently, questions of values and responsibility. From its inception operational research (OR) has engaged with such questions in terms of professional behavior, the handling of preferences in OR, the societal role of OR, the process of OR intervention and the content of OR analysis. As a result, analytical methods and processes have been developed to help clients explore the ethical dimension of their decisions. The paper reviews the literature published in selected OR journals (Management Science; Operations Research; Interfaces; the European Journal of Operational Research; the Journal of the Operations Research Society; Omega; International Transactions in Operational Research; the Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis), organizing it along the lines of OR’s core competences. The review identifies a number of significant research programmes that are well established and are being energetically pursued; the research findings are being applied to a wide range of important issues. Ethical questions lie at the heart of the great governmental and commercial issues of the day: economic growth and instability; inequality and injustice; environmental degradation and sustainability. They also lie at the heart of the more mundane decisions of day-to-day OR. ‘Ethics’ therefore provides a useful focus for OR both in terms of raising the awareness of all concerned and in providing a theme for research. As a result of the review some research questions are suggested. There is much of interest, much to do.     

Harmonizing model with transfer tax on water pollution across regional boundaries in a China’s lake basin

This paper presents a bilevel programming framework for a harmonizing model with transfer tax (HMTT) on water pollution across regional boundaries of a lake basin in China, where the administrator is the upper-level decision maker and individual regions consisting of the lake basin are the lower-level decision makers (followers). Leader’s cost is the total pollution reduction cost, whereas each region selfishly minimizes its own cost including reduction cost and transfer cost, given the transfer tax rate imposed by the leader. The HMTT guarantees that the imposed environmental quality standard is met through the transfer tax. Based on the KKT conditions of an auxiliary problem, we obtain that the solution set of the HMTT is nonempty. An algorithm is proposed, with the convergence result, to compute the cost-minimized transfer tax rate along with the reduction quantities of individual regions. Theoretical analysis and a case study for China’s Taihu Lake Basin show that the HMTT is superior to the current model of proportional share of pollution reduction (MPSPR). The HMTT not only solves the problem of conflicts over water pollution across regional boundaries but also utilizes the resources of the lake basin more efficiently.     

Adverse selection or advantageous selection? Risk and underwriting in China’s health-insurance market

Using data from China’s individual health-insurance market, we study the problem of information asymmetry. Our preliminary results appear to contradict standard-model predictions, showing that higher-risk buyers are more likely to purchase “additional” insurance than lower-risk buyers, but that they also tend to purchase lower limits of “basic” insurance coverage. We therefore develop a theoretical model to capture the effects of buyers’ wealth levels and loss amounts, and show empirically that these effects, in the context of asymmetric information, lead to the coexistence of adverse selection and advantageous selection in China’s health-insurance market.     

Problem structuring methods ‘in the Dock’: Arguing the case for Soft OR

Problem structuring methods (‘soft’ OR) have been around for approximately 40 years and yet these methods are still very much overlooked in the OR world. Whilst there is almost certainly a number of explanations for this, two key stumbling blocks are: (1) the subjective nature of the modelling yielding insights rather than testable results, and (2) the demand on users to both manage content (through modelling) and processes (work with rather than ‘on behalf’ of groups). However, as evidenced from practice there are also a number of significant benefits. This paper therefore aims to examine the case of Soft OR through examining the case for and against problem structuring methods.     

A multicriteria approach to sustainable energy supply for the rural poor

Despite significant progress in energy technology, about two billion people worldwide, particularly the poor in rural areas of developing countries, have no access to electricity. Decision-making concerning the most appropriate energy technology for supplying these areas has been difficult; existing energy decision-support tools have been useful but are mostly incomplete. Trade-offs, as well as impacts that can be positive or negative, may emerge as a result of implementing modern forms of energy. These can affect both community’s livelihoods as well as the confidence of decision-makers in relation to alternative technologies. The paper discusses a newly designed multicriteria approach and its novel robustness analysis for selecting energy generation systems for the improvement of livelihoods in rural areas. The proposed methodology builds upon a sustainable rural livelihoods framework to address multiple interactions and calculate trade-offs aimed at boosting decision-makers’ confidence in the selected technologies. The methodology is tested via a case study in Colombia.     

Licensing radical product innovations to speed up the diffusion

We present a differential game to study how companies can simultaneously license their innovations to other firms when launching a new product. The licensee may cannibalize licensor’s sales, albeit this can be compensated by gains from royalties. Nonetheless, patent royalties are generally so low that licensing is not an attractive strategy. In this paper we consider the role of licensing to speed up the product diffusion. Word of mouth by licensee’s customers and licensee’s advertising indirectly push forward sales of the licensing company, accelerating new product diffusion. We find evidence that licensing can be a potentially profitable strategy. However, we also find that a weak Intellectual Property Right (IPR) protection can easily diminish the financial attractiveness of licensing.     

Developing a market-based approach to managing the US strategic petroleum reserve

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has not been used effectively to manage the consequences of oil shocks in the United States. The main reason is that political decision makers tend to hoard the reserves during crises and bureaucratic processes delay the sale of the reserves. Also, the enabling legislation focused on ameliorating shortages whereas disruptions result price spikes rather than shortages. We develop a Markov game of the buildup and drawdown of the reserve in which a public player aims to maximize consumer welfare at the same time private holders of inventory maximize their profit. The methodological contribution in this paper is the development of financial options to implement the public player’s optimal policy. We use the solution of this game to calculate the number and value of options necessary for the private marketplace to trigger the optimal buildup and drawdown of the reserve.     

Cross-efficiency aggregation in DEA models using the evidential-reasoning approach

Cross-efficiency in data envelopment analysis (DEA) models is an effective way to rank decision-making units (DMUs). The common methods to aggregate cross-efficiency do not consider the preference structure of the decision maker (DM). When a DM’s preference structure does not satisfy the “additive independence” condition, a new aggregation method must be proposed. This paper uses the evidential-reasoning (ER) approach to aggregate the cross-efficiencies obtained from cross-evaluation through the transformation of the cross-efficiency matrix to pieces of evidence. This paper provides a new method for cross-efficiency aggregation and a new way for DEA models to reflect a DM’s preference or value judgments. Additionally, this paper presents examples that demonstrate the features of cross-efficiency aggregation using the ER approach, including an empirical example of the evaluation practice of 16 basic research institutes in Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) in 2010 that illustrates how the ER approach can be used to aggregate the cross-efficiency matrix produced from DEA models.     

Efficiency measurement using independent component analysis and data envelopment analysis

Efficiency measurement is an important issue for any firm or organization. Efficiency measurement allows organizations to compare their performance with their competitors’ and then develop corresponding plans to improve performance. Various efficiency measurement tools, such as conventional statistical methods and non-parametric methods, have been successfully developed in the literature. Among these tools, the data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach is one of the most widely discussed. However, problems of discrimination between efficient and inefficient decision-making units also exist in the DEA context (Adler and Yazhemsky, 2010). In this paper, a two-stage approach of integrating independent component analysis (ICA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) is proposed to overcome this issue. We suggest using ICA first to extract the input variables for generating independent components, then selecting the ICs representing the independent sources of input variables, and finally, inputting the selected ICs as new variables in the DEA model. A simulated dataset and a hospital dataset provided by the Office of Statistics in Taiwan’s Department of Health are used to demonstrate the validity of the proposed two-stage approach. The results show that the proposed method can not only separate performance differences between the DMUs but also improve the discriminatory capability of the DEA’s efficiency measurement.     

A spatial optimisation model for multi-period landscape level fuel management to mitigate wildfire impacts

Elevated fuel loads are contributing to an increase in the occurrence of, and area burned by, severe wildfires in many regions across the globe. In an attempt to reverse this trend, fire and land management agencies are investing in extensive fuel management programs. However, the planning of fuel treatment activities poses complicated decision-making problems with spatial and temporal dimensions. Here, we present a mixed integer programming model for spatially explicit multi-period scheduling of fuel treatments. The model provides a flexible framework that allows for landscape heterogeneity and a range of ecological and operational considerations and constraints. The model’s functionality is demonstrated on a series of hypothetical test landscapes and a number of implementation issues are discussed.     

Behavioural modelling of career progression in the European Commission

Though manpower planning models have been part of OR for many years, and simulation has always been acknowledged as a potential approach, there are few reported applications of its use. In this case-based study we report on a micro-simulation model that exploits the structure of the European Commission’s appraisal and promotion rules, and includes regression-based sampling schemes which allow for non-Normal error terms to represent behavioural factors that led to the need for a new system. With a suitably parsimonious formulation the 20,000 person model runs very effectively, and the transparency associated with simulation proves an important factor in the successful use of the model as the basis for designing a promotion box system that was implemented across the Commission in 2009. The simulation modelling incorporates many Markov-type elements, and we reflect on important lessons learned from this combined use of micro-simulation and Markov-based approaches to manpower modelling.     

Socially Responsible Investment: A multicriteria approach to portfolio selection combining ethical and financial objectives

In a context of Socially Responsible Investment (SRI), this paper deals with portfolio selection for investors interested in ethical policies. In the opportunity set there are ethical assets and other assets which are not characterized as ethical. Two goals are considered, the traditional financial goal in the classical utility theory under uncertainty and an ethical goal in the same utility framework. A new financial-ethical bi-criteria model is proposed with absolute risk aversion coefficients and targets depending on the investor’s ethical profile. This approach is relevant as an increasing number of mutual funds are becoming interested in SRI strategies. From the proposed model, an actual case on green investment is developed. Concerning this case (without generalizing to other contexts), an analysis of the numerical results shows that efficient portfolios obtained by the traditional E-V model outperform the strong green portfolios in terms of expected return and risk, but this does not significantly occur with weak green investment.     

Economic value of greenhouse gases and nitrogen surpluses: Society vs farmers’ valuation

Livestock supply must challenge the growth of final demand in the developing countries. This challenge has to take into account its ecological effects since the dairy and livestock sectors are clearly pointed out as human activities which contribute significantly to environmental deterioration. Therefore, livestock activity models have to include desirable and undesirable outputs simultaneously. Using this perspective, we implement a Data Envelopment Analysis model to evaluate shadow prices of outputs under contradictory objectives between the society and the farmers. We show that farmers are able to reduce pollution significantly if society accepts to balance farmers’ opportunity cost. Finally, we observe that initial levels of the CO₂ tax implemented in European countries are in line with farmers’ valuation while the current level of the CO₂ tax tends to reach the value of pollution targeted by the society.     

Technology selection and capacity investment under uncertainty

We analyze the problem of technology selection and capacity investment for electricity generation in a competitive environment under uncertainty. Adopting a Nash-Cournot competition model, we consider the marginal cost as the uncertain parameter, although the results can be easily generalized to other sources of uncertainty such as a load curve. In the model, firms make three different decisions: (i) the portfolio of technologies, (ii) each technology’s capacity and (iii) the technology’s production level for every scenario. The decisions related to the portfolio and capacity are ex-ante and the production level is ex-post to the realization of uncertainty. We discuss open and closed-loop models, with the aim to understand the relationship between different technologies’ cost structures and the portfolio of generation technologies adopted by firms in equilibrium. For a competitive setting, to the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first not only to explicitly discuss the relation between costs and generation portfolio but also to allow firms to choose a portfolio of technologies. We show that portfolio diversification arises even with risk-neutral firms and technologies with different cost expectations. We also investigate conditions on the probability and cost under which different equilibria of the game arise.     

On the importance of behavioral operational research: The case of understanding and communicating about dynamic systems

We point out the need for Behavioral Operational Research (BOR) in advancing the practice of OR. So far, in OR behavioral phenomena have been acknowledged only in behavioral decision theory but behavioral issues are always present when supporting human problem solving by modeling. Behavioral effects can relate to the group interaction and communication when facilitating with OR models as well as to the possibility of procedural mistakes and cognitive biases. As an illustrative example we use well known system dynamics studies related to the understanding of accumulation. We show that one gets completely opposite results depending on the way the phenomenon is described and how the questions are phrased and graphs used. The results suggest that OR processes are highly sensitive to various behavioral effects. As a result, we need to pay attention to the way we communicate about models as they are being increasingly used in addressing important problems like climate change.     

Capacity switching options under rivalry and uncertainty

Deregulated infrastructure industries exhibit stiff competition for market share. Firms may be able to limit the effects of competition by launching new projects in stages. Using a two-stage real options model, we explore the value of such flexibility. We first demonstrate that the value of investing in a sequential manner for a monopolist is positive but decreases with uncertainty. Next, we find that a typical duopoly firm’s value relative to a monopolist’s decreases with uncertainty as long as the loss in market share is high. Intriguingly, this result is reversed for a low loss in market share. We finally show that this loss in value is reduced if a firm invests in a sequential manner and specify the conditions under which sequential capacity expansion is more valuable for a duopolist firm than for a monopolist.