Flexible capacity strategy with multiple market periods under demand uncertainty and investment constraint

We establish a flexible capacity strategy model with multiple market periods under demand uncertainty and investment constraints. In the model, a firm makes its capacity decision under a financial budget constraint at the beginning of the planning horizon which embraces n market periods. In each market period, the firm goes through three decision-making stages: the safety production stage, the additional production stage and the optimal sales stage. We formulate the problem and obtain the optimal capacity, the optimal safety production, the optimal additional production and the optimal sales of each market period under different situations. We find that there are two thresholds for the unit capacity cost. When the capacity cost is very low, the optimal capacity is determined by its financial budget; when the capacity cost is very high, the firm keeps its optimal capacity at its safety production level; and when the cost is in between of the two thresholds, the optimal capacity is determined by the capacity cost, the number of market periods and the unit cost of additional production. Further, we explore the endogenous safety production level. We verify the conditions under which the firm has different optimal safety production levels. Finally, we prove that the firm can benefit from the investment only when the designed planning horizon is longer than a threshold. Moreover, we also derive the formulae for the above three thresholds.     

Technology selection and capacity investment under uncertainty

We analyze the problem of technology selection and capacity investment for electricity generation in a competitive environment under uncertainty. Adopting a Nash-Cournot competition model, we consider the marginal cost as the uncertain parameter, although the results can be easily generalized to other sources of uncertainty such as a load curve. In the model, firms make three different decisions: (i) the portfolio of technologies, (ii) each technology’s capacity and (iii) the technology’s production level for every scenario. The decisions related to the portfolio and capacity are ex-ante and the production level is ex-post to the realization of uncertainty. We discuss open and closed-loop models, with the aim to understand the relationship between different technologies’ cost structures and the portfolio of generation technologies adopted by firms in equilibrium. For a competitive setting, to the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first not only to explicitly discuss the relation between costs and generation portfolio but also to allow firms to choose a portfolio of technologies. We show that portfolio diversification arises even with risk-neutral firms and technologies with different cost expectations. We also investigate conditions on the probability and cost under which different equilibria of the game arise.     

New product introduction and capacity investment by incumbents: Effects of size on strategy

We analyze a duopoly where capacity-constrained firms offer an established product and have the option to offer an additional new and differentiated product. We show that the firm with the smaller capacity on the established market has a higher incentive to innovate and reaches a larger market share on the market for the new product. An increase in capacity of the larger firm can prevent its competitor from innovating, whereas an increase in capacity of the smaller firm cannot prevent innovation of its larger competitor. In equilibrium the firm with smaller capacity on the established market might outperform the larger firm with respect to total payoffs.     

Joint demand and capacity management in a restaurant system

This paper studies the demand and capacity management problem in a restaurant system. A queueing-based optimization model with underlying quasi birth-and-death process and state-dependent functions is developed to address the dynamic and nonlinearity difficulties. In particular, our model explicitly captures the demand changes with respect to the system congestion state on a near real-time dynamic basis. With this framework, we empirically examine the relative performance of commonly used strategies for the case of a local restaurant. The study shows that a strategy that balances service quality and cost yields maximum profit. The result indicates that the traditional view of the conflict between service quality and cost can be overcome by using an interdisciplinary perspective of marketing and operations. Both perspectives should be embraced in academic research and industrial practice in capacity planning decisions for services.     

Endogenous production capacity investment in natural gas market equilibrium models

The large-scale natural gas equilibrium model applied in Egging, 2013 combines long-term market equilibria and investments in infrastructure while accounting for market power by certain suppliers. Such models are widely used to simulate market outcomes given different scenarios of demand and supply development, environmental regulations and investment options in natural gas and other resource markets.     

Capacity switching options under rivalry and uncertainty

Deregulated infrastructure industries exhibit stiff competition for market share. Firms may be able to limit the effects of competition by launching new projects in stages. Using a two-stage real options model, we explore the value of such flexibility. We first demonstrate that the value of investing in a sequential manner for a monopolist is positive but decreases with uncertainty. Next, we find that a typical duopoly firm’s value relative to a monopolist’s decreases with uncertainty as long as the loss in market share is high. Intriguingly, this result is reversed for a low loss in market share. We finally show that this loss in value is reduced if a firm invests in a sequential manner and specify the conditions under which sequential capacity expansion is more valuable for a duopolist firm than for a monopolist.     

Integrated capacity and inventory management with capacity acquisition lead times

We model a make-to-stock production system that utilizes permanent and contingent capacity to meet non-stationary stochastic demand, where a constant lead time is associated with the acquisition of contingent capacity. We determine the structure of the optimal solution concerning both the operational decisions of integrated inventory and flexible capacity management, and the tactical decision of determining the optimal permanent capacity level. Furthermore, we show that the inventory (either before or after production), the pipeline contingent capacity, the contingent capacity to be ordered, and the permanent capacity are economic substitutes. We also show that the stochastic demand variable and the optimal contingent capacity acquisition decisions are economic complements. Finally, we perform numerical experiments to evaluate the value of utilizing contingent capacity and to study the effects of capacity acquisition lead time, providing useful managerial insights.     

“Bricks vs. Clicks”: The impact of manufacturer encroachment with a dealer leasing and selling of durable goods

In durable goods markets, many brand name manufacturers, including IBM, HP, Epson, and Lenovo, have adopted dual-channel supply chains to market their products. There is scant literature, however, addressing the product durability and its impact on players’ optimal strategies in a dual-channel supply chain. To fill this void, we consider a two-period dual-channel model in which a manufacturer sells a durable product directly through both a manufacturer-owned e-channel and an independent dealer who adopts a mix of selling and leasing to consumers. Our results show that the manufacturer begins encroaching into the market in Period 1, but the dealer starts withdrawing from the retail channel in Period 2. Moreover, as the direct selling cost decreases, the equilibrium quantities and wholesale prices become quite angular and often nonmonotonic. Among other results, we find that both the dealer and the supply chain may benefit from the manufacturer’s encroachment. Our results also indicate that both the market structure and the nature of competition have an important impact on the player’s (dealer’s) optimal choice of leasing and selling.     

Competition for limited critical resources and the adoption of environmentally sustainable strategies

We develop a game-theoretical methodology that incorporates competition for limited resources to explicitly model a firm's valuation and, hence, its decision whether to adopt environmentally sustainable strategies (e.g., recycling programs to replace limited natural resources, alternative technologies). Even if switching to environmentally sustainable alternatives proves too expensive for individual firms, or resource costs are expected to remain low, we show that competition for resources would still push firms to incur switching costs as they become more environmentally sustainable. Using a sample of firm-level data from the KLD database which includes firms' sustainability policies, we find empirical support that competition for resources is positively correlated with a firm's adoption of environmental strategies. Tests that use the Chinese government's 2010 rare-earth supply suspension as an exogenous shock to competition for limited resources suggest a causal interpretation for our finding.     

The role of store brand positioning for appropriating supply chain profit under shelf space allocation

We consider a retailer’s decision of developing a store brand (SB) version of a national brand (NB) and the role that its positioning strategy plays in appropriating the supply chain profit. Since the business of the retailer can be regarded as selling to NB manufacturers the shelf space at its disposal, we formulate a game-theoretical model of a single-retailer, single-manufacturer supply chain, where the retailer can decide whether to launch its own SB product and sells scarce shelf-space to a competing NB in a consumer good category. As a result, the most likely equilibrium outcome is that the available selling amount of each brand is constrained by the shelf-space available for its products and both brands coexist in the category. In this paper, we conceptualize the SB positioning that involves both product quality and product features. Our analysis shows that when the NB cross-price effect is not too large, the retailer should position its SB’s quality closer to the NB, more emphasize its SB’s differences in features facing a weaker NB, and less emphasize its SB’s differences in features facing a stronger NB. Our results stress the importance of SB positioning under the shelf-space allocation, in order to maximize the retailer’s value appropriation across the supply chain.     

Calculation of minimal capacity vectors through k minimal paths under budget and time constraints

Reducing the transmission time is an important issue for a flow network to transmit a given amount of data from the source to the sink. The quickest path problem thus arises to find a single path with minimum transmission time. More specifically, the capacity of each arc is assumed to be deterministic. However, in many real-life networks such as computer networks and telecommunication networks, the capacity of each arc is stochastic due to failure, maintenance, etc. Hence, the minimum transmission time is not a fixed number. Such a network is named a stochastic-flow network. In order to reduce the transmission time, the network allows the data to be transmitted through k minimal paths simultaneously. Including the cost attribute, this paper evaluates the probability that d units of data can be transmitted under both time threshold T and budget B. Such a probability is called the system reliability. An efficient algorithm is proposed to generate all of lower boundary points for (d, T, B), the minimal capacity vectors satisfying the demand, time, and budget requirements. The system reliability can then be computed in terms of such points. Moreover, the optimal combination of k minimal paths with highest system reliability can be obtained.