Sequences of bias-adjusted covariance matrix estimators under heteroskedasticity of unknown form

The linear regression model is commonly used by practitioners to model the relationship between the variable of interest and a set of explanatory variables. The assumption that all error variances are the same, known as homoskedasticity, is oftentimes violated when cross sectional data are used. Consistent standard errors for the ordinary least squares estimators of the regression parameters can be computed following the approach proposed by White (Econometrica 48:817–838, 1980). Such standard errors, however, are considerably biased in samples of typical sizes. An improved covariance matrix estimator was proposed by Qian and Wang (J Stat Comput Simul 70:161–174, 2001). In this paper, we improve upon the Qian–Wang estimator by defining a sequence of bias-adjusted estimators with increasing accuracy. The numerical results show that the Qian–Wang estimator is typically much less biased than the estimator proposed by Halbert White and that our correction to the former can be quite effective in small samples. Finally, we show that the Qian–Wang estimator can be generalized into a broad class of heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators, and our results can be easily extended to such a class of estimators.     

HAC estimation and strong linearity testing in weak ARMA models

In the framework of ARMA models, we consider testing the reliability of the standard asymptotic covariance matrix (ACM) of the least-squares estimator. The standard formula for this ACM is derived under the assumption that the errors are independent and identically distributed, and is in general invalid when the errors are only uncorrelated. The test statistic is based on the difference between a conventional estimator of the ACM of the least-squares estimator of the ARMA coefficients and its robust HAC-type version. The asymptotic distribution of the HAC estimator is established under the null hypothesis of independence, and under a large class of alternatives. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed statistic is shown to be a standard χ² under the null, and a noncentral χ² under the alternatives. The choice of the HAC estimator is discussed through asymptotic power comparisons. The finite sample properties of the test are analyzed via Monte Carlo simulation.     

Accurate distribution and its asymptotic expansion for the tetrachoric correlation coefficient

Accurate distributions of the estimator of the tetrachoric correlation coefficient and, more generally, functions of sample proportions for the 2 by 2 contingency table are derived. The results are obtained given the definitions of the estimators even when some marginal cell(s) are empty. Then, asymptotic expansions of the distributions of the parameter estimators standardized by the population asymptotic standard errors up to order O(1/n) and those of the studentized ones up to the order next beyond the conventional normal approximation are derived. The asymptotic results can be obtained in a much shorter computation time than the accurate ones. Numerical examples were used to illustrate advantages of the studentized estimator of Fisher’s z transformation of the tetrachoric correlation coefficient.     

The bootstrap: Some large sample theory and connections with robustness

The bootstrap, discussed by Efron (1979, 1981), is a powerful tool for the nonparametric estimation of sampling distributions and asymptotic standard errors. We demonstrate consistency of the bootstrap distribution estimates for a general class of robust differentiable statistical functionals. Our conditions for consistency of the bootstrap are variants of previously considered criteria for robustness of the associated statistics. A general example shows that, for almost any location statistic, consistency of the bootstrap variance estimator requires a tail condition on the distribution from which samples are taken. A modification of Efron's estimator of standard error is shown to circumvent this problem.     

An improved exponential estimator of finite population mean in simple random sampling using an auxiliary attribute

In this paper, we propose an exponential ratio type estimator of the finite population mean when auxiliary information is qualitative in nature. Under simple random sampling without replacement scheme, the expressions for the bias and the mean square error of the proposed estimator have been obtained, up to first order of approximation. To show that our proposed estimator is more efficient as compared to the existing estimators, we have made a comparative study with respect to their mean square errors. Theoretically and numerically, we have found that our proposed estimator is always more efficient as compared to its competitor estimators including all the estimators of Abd-Elfattah et al. [1] [A.M. Abd-Elfattah, E.A. El-Sherpieny, S.M. Mohamed, and O.F. Abdou. Improvement in estimating the population mean in simple random sampling using information on auxiliary attribute. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 215 (2010), 4198-4202].     

Completeness and unbiased estimation of mean vector in the multivariate group sequential case

We consider estimation after a group sequential test about a multivariate normal mean, such as a χ² test or a sequential version of the Bonferroni procedure. We derive the density function of the sufficient statistics and show that the sample mean remains to be the maximum likelihood estimator but is no longer unbiased. We propose an alternative Rao-Blackwell type unbiased estimator. We show that the family of distributions of the sufficient statistic is not complete, and there exist infinitely many unbiased estimators of the mean vector and none has uniformly minimum variance. However, when restricted to truncation-adaptable statistics, completeness holds and the Rao-Blackwell estimator has uniformly minimum variance.     

Analysis of ϕ-divergence for loglinear models with constraints under product-multinomial sampling

The loglinear model under product-multinomial sampling with constraints is considered. The asymptotic expansion and normality of the restricted minimum φ-divergence estimator (RMφDE) which is a generalization of the maximum likelihood estimator is presented. Then various statistics based on φ-divergence and RMφDE are used to test various hypothesis test problems under the model considered. These statistics contain the classical loglikelihood ratio test statistics and Pearson chi-squared test statistics. In the last section, a simulation study is implemented.     

On the comparison of the pre-test and shrinkage phi-divergence test estimators for the symmetry model of categorical data

The estimation problem of the parameters in a symmetry model for categorical data has been considered for many authors in the statistical literature (for example, Bowker (1948) [1], Ireland et al. (1969) [2], Quade and Salama (1975) [3], Cressie and Read (1988) [4], Menéndez et al. (2005) [5]) without using uncertain prior information. It is well known that many new and interesting estimators, using uncertain prior information, have been studied by a host of researchers in different statistical models, and many papers have been published on this topic (see Saleh (2006) [9] and references therein). In this paper, we consider the symmetry model of categorical data and we study, for the first time, some new estimators when non-sample information about the symmetry of the probabilities is considered. The decision to use a “restricted” estimator or an “unrestricted” estimator is based on the outcome of a preliminary test, and then a shrinkage technique is used. It is interesting to note that we present a unified study in the sense that we consider not only the maximum likelihood estimator and likelihood ratio test or chi-square test statistic but we consider minimum phi-divergence estimators and phi-divergence test statistics. Families of minimum phi-divergence estimators and phi-divergence test statistics are wide classes of estimators and test statistics that contain as a particular case the maximum likelihood estimator, likelihood ratio test and chi-square test statistic. In an asymptotic set-up, the biases and the risk under the squared loss function for the proposed estimators are derived and compared. A numerical example clarifies the content of the paper.     

Empirical likelihood for LAD estimators in infinite variance ARMA models

In this paper, we use an empirical likelihood method to construct confidence regions for the stationary ARMA(p,q) models with infinite variance. An empirical log-likelihood ratio is derived by the estimating equation of the self-weighted LAD estimator. It is proved that the proposed statistic has an asymptotic standard chi-squared distribution. Simulation studies show that in a small sample case, the performance of empirical likelihood method is better than that of normal approximation of the LAD estimator in terms of the coverage accuracy.     

Wavelet shrinkage estimators of Calderón-Zygmund operators with odd kernels

Wavelet shrinkage is a strategy to obtain a nonlinear approximation to a given function f and is widely used in data compression,signal processing and statistics,etc.For Calder′on-Zygmund operators T,it is interesting to construct estimator of T f,based on wavelet shrinkage estimator of f.With the help of a representation of operators on wavelets,due to Beylkin et al.,an estimator of T f is presented in this paper.The almost everywhere convergence and norm convergence of the proposed estimators are established.     

Asymptotics of Bonferroni for dependent normal test statistics

The Bonferroni adjustment is sometimes used to control the familywise error rate (FWE) when the number of comparisons is huge. In genome wide association studies, researchers compare cases to controls with respect to thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms. It has been claimed that the Bonferroni adjustment is only slightly conservative if the comparisons are nearly independent. We show that the veracity of this claim depends on how one defines “nearly”. Specifically, if the test statistics’ pairwise correlations converge to 0 as the number of tests tend to ∞, the conservatism of the Bonferroni procedure depends on their rate of convergence. The type I error rate of Bonferroni can tend to 0 or 1−exp(−α)≈α, depending on that rate. We show using elementary probability theory what happens to the distribution of the number of errors when using Bonferroni, as the number of dependent normal test statistics gets large. We also use the limiting behavior of Bonferroni to shed light on properties of other commonly used test statistics.     

Moderate Deviations for M-estimators in Linear Models with φ-mixing Errors

In this paper, the moderate deviations for the M-estimators of regression parameter in a linear model are obtained when the errors form a strictly stationary φ-mixing sequence. The results are applied to study many different types of M-estimators such as Huber's estimator, Lp-regression estimator, least squares estimator and least absolute deviation estimator.     

Coupling Importance Sampling and Multilevel Monte Carlo using Sample Average Approximation

In this work, we propose a smart idea to couple importance sampling and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). We advocate a per level approach with as many importance sampling parameters as the number of levels, which enables us to handle the different levels independently. The search for parameters is carried out using sample average approximation, which basically consists in applying deterministic optimisation techniques to a Monte Carlo approximation rather than resorting to stochastic approximation. Our innovative estimator leads to a robust and efficient procedure reducing both the discretization error (the bias) and the variance for a given computational effort. In the setting of discretized diffusions, we prove that our estimator satisfies a strong law of large numbers and a central limit theorem with optimal limiting variance, in the sense that this is the variance achieved by the best importance sampling measure (among the class of changes we consider), which is however non tractable. Finally, we illustrate the efficiency of our method on several numerical challenges coming from quantitative finance and show that it outperforms the standard MLMC estimator.     

A note on estimating the number of errors in a system by recapture sampling

Some distributional results related to the recapture debugging experiment of Nayak (1988) for estimating the number of errors, N, in a software are obtained. It is proved that while the sufficient statistics are complete, an unbiased estimator of N based on them does not exist.     

Direction selection in stochastic directional distance functions

Researchers rely on the distance function to model multiple product production using multiple inputs. A stochastic directional distance function (SDDF) allows for noise in potentially all input and output variables. Yet, when estimated, the direction selected will affect the functional estimates because deviations from the estimated function are minimized in the specified direction. Specifically, the parameters of the parametric SDDF are point identified when the direction is specified; we show that the parameters of the parametric SDDF are set identified when multiple directions are considered. Further, the set of identified parameters can be narrowed via data-driven approaches to restrict the directions considered. We demonstrate a similar narrowing of the identified parameter set for a shape constrained nonparametric method, where the shape constraints impose standard features of a cost function such as monotonicity and convexity.Our Monte Carlo simulation studies reveal significant improvements, as measured by out of sample radial mean squared error, in functional estimates when we use a directional distance function with an appropriately selected direction and the errors are uncorrelated across variables. We show that these benefits increase as the correlation in error terms across variables increase. This correlation is a type of endogeneity that is common in production settings. From our Monte Carlo simulations we conclude that selecting a direction that is approximately orthogonal to the estimated function in the central region of the data gives significantly better estimates relative to the directions commonly used in the literature. For practitioners, our results imply that selecting a direction vector that has non-zero components for all variables that may have measurement error provides a significant improvement in the estimator’s performance. We illustrate these results using cost and production data from samples of approximately 500 US hospitals per year operating in 2007, 2008, and 2009, respectively, and find that the shape constrained nonparametric methods provide a significant increase in flexibility over second order local approximation parametric methods.     

On nonparametric change point estimator based on empirical characteristic functions

We propose a nonparametric change point estimator in the distributions of a sequence of independent observations in terms of the test statistics given by Huˇskov′a and Meintanis(2006) that are based on weighted empirical characteristic functions. The weight function ω(t; a) under consideration includes the two weight functions from Huˇskov′a and Meintanis(2006) plus the weight function used by Matteson and James(2014),where a is a tuning parameter. Under the local alternative hypothesis, we establish the consistency, convergence rate, and asymptotic distribution of this change point estimator which is the maxima of a two-side Brownian motion with a drift. Since the performance of the change point estimator depends on a in use, we thus propose an algorithm for choosing an appropriate value of a, denoted by a_s which is also justified. Our simulation study shows that the change point estimate obtained by using a_s has a satisfactory performance. We also apply our method to a real dataset.     

Fast calibrations of the forward search for testing multiple outliers in regression

The paper considers the problem of testing for multiple outliers in a regression model and provides fast approximations to the null distribution of the minimum deletion residual used as a test statistic. Since direct simulation of each combination of number of observations and number of parameters is too time consuming, methods using simple normal samples are described for approximating the pointwise distribution of the test statistic. One approximation is based on adjustments to the results of simple simulations. The other uses properties of order statistics from folded t distributions to move outside the significance levels available by simulation. Analyses of data with beta errors and of transformed data on survival times demonstrate the usefulness in graphical methods of the inclusion of our bounds.     

A Unified Approach to Second Order Optimality Criteria in Nonlinear Design of Experiments

In the nonlinear regression model we consider the optimal design problem with a second order design D-criterion. Our purpose is to present a general approach to this problem, which includes the asymptotic second order bias and variance criterion of the least squares estimator and criteria using the volume of confidence regions based on different statistics. Under assumptions of regularity for these statistics a second order approximation of the volume of these regions is derived which is proposed as a quadratic optimality criterion. These criteria include volumes of confidence regions based on the u _n - representable statistics. An important difference between the criteria presented in this paper and the second order criteria commonly employed in the recent literature is that the former criteria are independent of the vector of residuals. Moreover, a refined version of the commonly applied criteria is obtained, which also includes effects of nonlinearity caused by third derivatives of the response function.     

On valuing and hedging European options when volatility is estimated directly

We quantify the effects on contingent claim valuation of using an estimator for the unknown volatility σ of a geometric Brownian motion (GBM) process. The theme of the paper is to show what difficulties can arise when failing to account for estimation risk. Our narrative uses a direct estimator of volatility based on the sample standard deviation of increments of the underlying Brownian motion. After replacing the direct estimator into the GBM, we derive the resulting distribution function of the approximated GBM for any time point. This allows us to present post-estimation distributions and valuation formulae for an assortment of European contingent claims that are in accord with many of the basic properties of the underlying risk-neutral process, and yet better reflect the additional uncertainties and risks that exist in the Black-Scholes-Merton paradigm.     

Testing for serial correlation of unknown form in cointegrated time series models

Portmanteau test statistics are useful for checking the adequacy of many time series models. Here we generalized the omnibus procedure proposed by Duchesne and Roy (2004,Journal of Multivariate Analysis,89, 148–180) for multivariate stationary autoregressive models with exogenous variables (VARX) to the case of cointegrated (or partially nonstationary) VARX models. We show that for cointegrated VARX time series, the test statistic obtained by comparing the spectral density of the errors under the null hypothesis of non-correlation with a kernel-based spectral density estimator, is asymptotically standard normal. The parameters of the model can be estimated by conditional maximum likelihood or by asymptotically equivalent estimation procedures. The procedure relies on a truncation point or a smoothing parameter. We state conditions under which the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is unaffected by a data-dependent method. The finite sample properties of the test statistics are studied via a small simulation study.