Models for planning capacity expansion in local access telecommunication networks

The rapid progress of communications technology has created new opportunities for modeling and optimizing the design of local telecommunication systems. The complexity, diversity, and continuous evolution of these networks pose several modeling challenges. In this paper, we present an overview of the local telephone network environment, and discuss possible modeling approaches. In particular, we (i) discuss the engineering characteristics of the network, and introduce terminology that is commonly used in the communications industry and literature; (ii) describe a general local access network planning model and framework, and motivate different possible modeling assumptions; (iii) summarize various existing planning models in the context of this framework; and (iv) describe some new modeling approaches. The discussion in this paper is directed both to researchers interested in modeling local telecommunications systems and to planners interested in using such models. Our goal is to present relevant aspects of the engineering environment for local access telecommunication networks, and to discuss the relationship between engineering issues and the formulation of economic decision models. We indicate how changes in the underlying switching and transmission technology affect the modeling of the local telephone network. We also review various planning issues and discuss possible optimization approaches for treating them.This research was initiated through a grant from GTE Laboratories, IncorporatedSupported in part by an AT&T research award.Supported in part by Grant No. ECS-8316224 from the Systems Theory and Operations Research Program of the National Science Foundation.     

Object oriented modeling of social networks

The aim of this paper is to explain principles of object oriented modeling in the scope of modeling dynamic social networks. As such, the approach of object oriented modeling is advocated within the field of organizational research that focuses on networks.We provide a brief introduction into the field of social networks and present an overview of existing network models and methods. Subsequently we introduce an elementary problem field in the social sciences in general, and in studies of organizational change and design in particular: the micro-macro link. We argue that the most appropriate way to hadle this problem is the principle of methodological individualism. For social network analysis, to contribute to this theoretical perspective, it should include an individual choice mechanism and become more dynamically oriented. Subsequently, object oriented modeling is advocated as a tool to meet these requirements for social network analysis. We show that characteristics of social systems that are emphasized in the methodological individualistic approach have their direct equivalences in object oriented models. The link between the micro level where actors act, and the macro level where phenomena occur as a consequence and cause of these actions, can be modelled in a straightforward way.     

The Role of Metanetworks in Network Evolution

The question of what structures of relations between actors emerge in the evolution of social networks is of fundamental sociological interest. The present research proposes that processes of network evolution can be usefully conceptualized in terms of a network of networks, or “metanetwork,” wherein networks that are one link manipulation away from one another are connected. Moreover, the geography of metanetworks has real effects on the course of network evolution. Specifically, both equilibrium and non-equilibrium networks located in more desirable regions of the metanetwork are found to be more probable. These effects of metanetwork geography are illustrated by two dynamic network models: one in which actors pursue access to unique information through “structural holes,” and the other in which actors pursue access to valid information by minimizing path length. Finally, I discuss future directions for modeling network dynamics in terms of metanetworks.     

Computational Statistical Methods for Social Network Models

We review the broad range of recent statistical work in social network models, with emphasis on computational aspects of these methods. Particular focus is applied to exponential-family random graph models (ERGM) and latent variable models for data on complete networks observed at a single time point, though we also briefly review many methods for incompletely observed networks and networks observed at multiple time points. Although we mention far more modeling techniques than we can possibly cover in depth, we provide numerous citations to current literature. We illustrate several of the methods on a small, well-known network dataset, Sampson's monks, providing code where possible so that these analyses may be duplicated.     

Can tools help unify organization theory? Perspectives on the state of computational modeling

Scholars engaged in the study of work group and organizational behavior are increasingly calling for the use of integrated methods in conducting research, including the wider adoption of computational models for generating and testing new theory. Our review of the state of modern computational modeling incorporating social structures reveals steady increases in the incorporation of dynamic, adaptive, and realistic behaviors of agents in network settings, yet exposes gaps that must be addressed in the next generation of organizational simulation systems. We compare 28 models according to more than two hundred evaluation criteria, ranging from simple representations of agent demographic and performance characteristics, to more richly defined instantiations of behavioral attributes, interaction with non-agent entities, model flexibility, communication channels, simulation types, knowledge, transactive memory, task complexity, and resource networks. Our survey assesses trends across the wide set of criteria, discusses practical applications, and proposes an agenda for future research and development. Michael J. Ashworth is a doctoral candidate in computational organization science at Carnegie Mellon University, where he conducts research on social, knowledge, and transactive memory networks along with their effects on group and organizational learning and performance. Practical outcomes of his work include improved understanding of the impact of technology, offshoring, and turnover on organizational performance. Mr. Ashworth has won several prestigious grants from the Sloan Foundation and the National Science Foundation to pursue his research on transactive memory networks. Journals in which his research has appeared include Journal of Mathematical Sociology, International Journal of Human Resource Management, and Proceedings of the International Conference on Information Systems. His recent work on managing human resource challenges in the electric power industry has been featured in the Wall Street Journal and on National Public Radio's ``Morning Edition.' Mr. Ashworth received his undergraduate degree in systems engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology. Kathleen M. Carley is a professor at the Institute for Software Research International in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University. She is the director of the center for Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS), a university-wide interdisciplinary center that brings together network analysis, computer science and organization science (www.casos.ece.cmu.edu). Prof. Carley carries out research that combines cognitive science, dynamic social networks, text processing, organizations, social and computer science in a variety of theoretical and applied venues. Her specific research areas are computational social and organization theory; dynamic social networks; multi-agent network models; group, organizational, and social adaptation, and evolution; statistical models for dynamic network analysis and evolution, computational text analysis, and the impact of telecommunication technologies on communication and information diffusion within and among groups. Prof. Carley has undergraduate degrees in economics and political science from MIT and a doctorate in sociology from Harvard University.     

Modeling networked systems using the topologically distributed bounded rationality framework

In networked systems research, game theory is increasingly used to model a number of scenarios where distributed decision making takes place in a competitive environment. These scenarios include peer‐to‐peer network formation and routing, computer security level allocation, and TCP congestion control. It has been shown, however, that such modeling has met with limited success in capturing the real‐world behavior of computing systems. One of the main reasons for this drawback is that, whereas classical game theory assumes perfect rationality of players, real world entities in such settings have limited information, and cognitive ability which hinders their decision making. Meanwhile, new bounded rationality models have been proposed in networked game theory which take into account the topology of the network. In this article, we demonstrate that game‐theoretic modeling of computing systems would be much more accurate if a topologically distributed bounded rationality model is used. In particular, we consider (a) link formation on peer‐to‐peer overlay networks (b) assigning security levels to computers in computer networks (c) routing in peer‐to‐peer overlay networks, and show that in each of these scenarios, the accuracy of the modeling improves very significantly when topological models of bounded rationality are applied in the modeling process. Our results indicate that it is possible to use game theory to model competitive scenarios in networked systems in a way that closely reflects real world behavior, topology, and dynamics of such systems. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 123–137, 2016     

ISSUE INFORMATION

Modeling social‐ecological systems is difficult due to the complexity of ecosystems and of individual and collective human behavior. Key components of the social‐ecological system are often over‐simplified or omitted. Generalized modeling is a dynamical systems approach that can overcome some of these challenges. It can rigorously analyze qualitative system dynamics such as regime shifts despite incomplete knowledge of the model's constituent processes. Here, we review generalized modeling and use a recent study on the Baltic Sea cod fishery's boom and collapse to demonstrate its application to modeling the dynamics of empirical social‐ecological systems. These empirical applications demand new methods of analysis suited to larger, more complicated generalized models. Generalized modeling is a promising tool for rapidly developing mathematically rigorous, process‐based understanding of a social‐ecological system's dynamics despite limited knowledge of the system.     

Detecting evolving patterns of self‐organizing networks by flow hierarchy measurement

Hierarchies occur widely in evolving self‐organizing ecological, biological, technological, and social networks, but detecting and comparing hierarchies is difficult. Here we present a metric and technique to quantitatively assess the extent to which self‐organizing directed networks exhibit a flow hierarchy. Flow hierarchy is a commonly observed but theoretically overlooked form of hierarchy in networks. We show that the ecological, neurobiological, economic, and information processing networks are generally more hierarchical than their comparable random networks. We further discovered that hierarchy degree has increased over the course of the evolution of Linux kernels. Taken together, our results suggest that hierarchy is a central organizing feature of real‐world evolving networks, and the measurement of hierarchy opens the way to understand the structural regimes and evolutionary patterns of self‐organizing networks. Our measurement technique makes it possible to objectively compare hierarchies of different networks and of different evolutionary stages of a single network, and compare evolving patterns of different networks. It can be applied to various complex systems, which can be represented as directed networks. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity, 2011     

Dynamics of supply chain networks with corporate social responsibility through integrated environmental decision-making

In this paper, we develop a dynamic framework for the modeling and analysis of supply chain networks with corporate social responsibility through integrated environmental decision-making. Through a multilevel supply chain network, we model the multicriteria decision-making behavior of the various decision-makers (manufacturers, retailers, and consumers), which includes the maximization of profit, the minimization of emission (waste), and the minimization of risk. We explore the dynamic evolution of the product flows, the associated product prices, as well as the levels of social responsibility activities on the network until an equilibrium pattern is achieved. We provide some qualitative properties of the dynamic trajectories, under suitable assumptions, and propose a discrete-time algorithm which is then applied to track the evolution of the levels of social responsibility activities, product flows and prices over time. We illustrate the model and computational procedure with several numerical examples.     

Dynamic information handling in continuous time Boolean Network model of gene interactions

Growing information and knowledge on gene regulatory networks, which are typical hybrid systems, has led a significant interest in modeling those networks. An important direction of gene network modeling is studying the abstract network models to understand the behavior of a class of systems. Boolean Networks has emerged as an important model class on this direction. Limitations of traditional Boolean Networks led the researchers to propose several generalizations. In this work, one such class, the Continuous Time Boolean Networks (CTBN’s), is studied. CTBN’s are constructed by allowing the Boolean variables evolve in continuous time and involve a biologically-motivated refractory period. In particular, we analyze the basic circuits and subsystems of the class of CTBN’s. We demonstrate the existence of various qualitative dynamic behavior including stable, multistable, neutrally stable, quasiperiodic and chaotic behaviors. We show that those models are capable of demonstrating highly adjustable features like maintenance of continuous protein concentrations. Finally, we discuss the relation between qualitative dynamic features and information handling.     

On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

Mean-field modeling approach for understanding epidemic dynamics in interconnected networks

Modern systems (e.g., social, communicant, biological networks) are increasingly interconnected each other formed as ‘networks of networks’. Such complex systems usually possess inconsistent topologies and permit agents distributed in different subnetworks to interact directly/indirectly. Corresponding dynamics phenomena, such as the transmission of information, power, computer virus and disease, would exhibit complicated and heterogeneous tempo-spatial patterns. In this paper, we focus on the scenario of epidemic spreading in interconnected networks. We intend to provide a typical mean-field modeling framework to describe the time-evolution dynamics, and offer some mathematical skills to study the spreading threshold and the global stability of the model. Integrating the research with numerical analysis, we are able to quantify the effects of networks structure and epidemiology parameters on the transmission dynamics. Interestingly, we find that the diffusion transition in the whole network is governed by a unique threshold, which mainly depends on the most heterogenous connection patterns of network substructures. Further, the dynamics is highly sensitive to the critical values of cross infectivity with switchable phases.     

Exploring communication networks to understand organizational crisis using exponential random graph models

In recent social network studies, exponential random graph (ERG) models have been used comprehensively to model global social network structure as a function of their local features. In this study, we describe the ERG models and demonstrate its use in modelling the changing communication network structure at Enron Corporation during the period of its disintegration. We illustrate the modelling on communication networks, and provide a new way of classifying networks and their performance based on the occurrence of their local features. Among several micro-level structures of ERG models, we find significant variation in the appearance of A2P (Alternating k-two-paths) network structure in the communication network during crisis period and non-crisis period. We also notice that the attribute of hierarchical positions of actors (i.e., high rank versus low rank staff) have impact on the evolution process of networks during crisis. These findings could be used in analyzing communication networks of dynamic project groups and their adaptation process during crisis which could lead to an improved understanding how communications network evolve and adapt during crisis.     

Differentiating between good credits and bad credits using neuro-fuzzy systems

To evaluate consumer loan applications, loan officers use many techniques such as judgmental systems, statistical models, or simply intuitive experience. In recent years, fuzzy systems and neural networks have attracted the growing interest of researchers and practitioners. This study compares the performance of artificial neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) and multiple discriminant analysis models to screen potential defaulters on consumer loans. Using a modeling sample and a test sample, we find that the neuro-fuzzy system performs better than the multiple discriminant analysis approach to identify bad credit applications. Further, neuro-fuzzy systems have many advantages over traditional computational methods. Neuro-fuzzy system models are flexible, more tolerant of imprecise data, and can model non-linear functions of arbitrary complexity.     

Exploring the evolution of complexity in signaling networks

Signaling networks are exemplified by systems as diverse as biological cells, economic markets, and the Web. After a discussion of some general characteristics of signaling networks, this article explores the adaptive evolution of complexity in a simple model of a signaling network. The article closes with a discussion of broader questions concerning the evolution of signaling networks. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Natural networks as thermodynamic systems

Natural networks are considered as thermodynamic systems that evolve from one state to another by consuming free energy. The least-time consumption of free energy is found to result in ubiquitous scale-free characteristics. The network evolution will yield the scale-independent qualities because the least-time imperative will prefer attachment of nodes that contribute most to the free-energy consumption. The analysis of evolutionary equation of motion, derived from statistical physics of open systems, reveals that evolution of natural networks is a path-dependent and nondeterministic process. Despite the noncomputability of evolution, many mathematical models of networks can be recognized as approximations of the least-time process as well as many measures of networks can be appreciated as practical assessments of the system's thermodynamic status. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity, 2012     

Modeling the complexity of genetic networks: Understanding multigenic and pleiotropic regulation

Molecular genetics presents an increasingly complex picture of the genome and biological function. Evidence is mounting for distributed function, redundancy, and combinatorial coding in the regulation of genes. Satisfactory explanation will require the concept of a parallel processing signaling network. Here we provide an introduction to Boolean networks and their relevance to present-day experimental research. Boolean network models exhibit global complex behavior, self-organization, stability, redundancy and periodicity, properties that deeply characterize biological systems. While the life sciences must inevitably face the issue of complexity, we may well look to cybernetics for a modeling language such as Boolean networks which can manageably describe parallel processing biological systems and provide a framework for the growing accumulation of data. We finally discuss experimental strategies and database systems that will enable mapping of genetic networks. The synthesis of these approaches holds an immense potential for new discoveries on the intimate nature of genetic networks, bringing us closer to an understanding of complex molecular physiological processes like brain development, and intractable medical problems of immediate importance, such as neurodegenerative disorders, cancer, and a variety of genetic diseases.     

Graph spectra in Computer Science

In this paper, we shall give a survey of applications of the theory of graph spectra to Computer Science. Eigenvalues and eigenvectors of several graph matrices appear in numerous papers on various subjects relevant to information and communication technologies. In particular, we survey applications in modeling and searching Internet, in computer vision, data mining, multiprocessor systems, statistical databases, and in several other areas. Some related new mathematical results are included together with several comments on perspectives for future research. In particular, we claim that balanced subdivisions of cubic graphs are good models for virus resistent computer networks and point out some advantages in using integral graphs as multiprocessor interconnection networks.     

The role of local partial independence in learning of Bayesian networks

Bayesian networks are one of the most widely used tools for modeling multivariate systems. It has been demonstrated that more expressive models, which can capture additional structure in each conditional probability table (CPT), may enjoy improved predictive performance over traditional Bayesian networks despite having fewer parameters. Here we investigate this phenomenon for models of various degree of expressiveness on both extensive synthetic and real data. To characterize the regularities within CPTs in terms of independence relations, we introduce the notion of partial conditional independence (PCI) as a generalization of the well-known concept of context-specific independence (CSI). To model the structure of the CPTs, we use different graph-based representations which are convenient from a learning perspective. In addition to the previously studied decision trees and graphs, we introduce the concept of PCI-trees as a natural extension of the CSI-based trees. To identify plausible models we use the Bayesian score in combination with a greedy search algorithm. A comparison against ordinary Bayesian networks shows that models with local structures in general enjoy parametric sparsity and improved out-of-sample predictive performance, however, often it is necessary to regulate the model fit with an appropriate model structure prior to avoid overfitting in the learning process. The tree structures, in particular, lead to high quality models and suggest considerable potential for further exploration.