Modified Cross-Validation for Penalized High-Dimensional Linear Regression Models

In this article, for Lasso penalized linear regression models in high-dimensional settings, we propose a modified cross-validation (CV) method for selecting the penalty parameter. The methodology is extended to other penalties, such as Elastic Net. We conduct extensive simulation studies and real data analysis to compare the performance of the modified CV method with other methods. It is shown that the popular K-fold CV method includes many noise variables in the selected model, while the modified CV works well in a wide range of coefficient and correlation settings. Supplementary materials containing the computer code are available online.     

Model Selection Consistency of Lasso for Empirical Data

Large-scale empirical data, the sample size and the dimension are high, often exhibit various characteristics. For example, the noise term follows unknown distributions or the model is very sparse that the number of critical variables is fixed while dimensionality grows with n. The authors consider the model selection problem of lasso for this kind of data. The authors investigate both theoretical guarantees and simulations, and show that the lasso is robust for various kinds of data.     

A Cheaper Way to Compute Generalized Cross-Validation as a Stopping Rule for Linear Stationary Iterative Methods

We apply generalized cross-validation (GCV) as a stopping rule for general linear stationary iterative methods for solving very large-scale, ill-conditioned problems. We present a new general formula for the influence operator for these methods and, using this formula and a Monte Carlo approach, we show how to compute the GCV function at a cheaper cost. Then we apply our approach to a well known iterative method (ART) with simulated data in positron emission tomography (PET).     

Positive Semidefinite Rank-Based Correlation Matrix Estimation With Application to Semiparametric Graph Estimation

Many statistical methods gain robustness and flexibility by sacrificing convenient computational structures. In this article, we illustrate this fundamental tradeoff by studying a semiparametric graph estimation problem in high dimensions. We explain how novel computational techniques help to solve this type of problem. In particular, we propose a nonparanormal neighborhood pursuit algorithm to estimate high-dimensional semiparametric graphical models with theoretical guarantees. Moreover, we provide an alternative view to analyze the tradeoff between computational efficiency and statistical error under a smoothing optimization framework. Though this article focuses on the problem of graph estimation, the proposed methodology is widely applicable to other problems with similar structures. We also report thorough experimental results on text, stock, and genomic datasets.     

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In this paper, we put non-concave penalty on the local conditional likelihood. We obtain the oracle property and asymptotic normal distribution property of the parameters in Ising model. With a union band, we obtain the sign consistence for the estimator of parameter matrix, and the convergence speed under the matrix $L_1$ norm. The results of the simulation studies and a real data analysis show that the non-concave penalized estimator has larger sensitivity.     

Sparse Multivariate Regression With Covariance Estimation

We propose a procedure for constructing a sparse estimator of a multivariate regression coefficient matrix that accounts for correlation of the response variables. This method, which we call multivariate regression with covariance estimation (MRCE), involves penalized likelihood with simultaneous estimation of the regression coefficients and the covariance structure. An efficient optimization algorithm and a fast approximation are developed for computing MRCE. Using simulation studies, we show that the proposed method outperforms relevant competitors when the responses are highly correlated. We also apply the new method to a finance example on predicting asset returns. An R-package containing this dataset and code for computing MRCE and its approximation are available online.     

Logistic模型参数估计及预测实例

本文提出了对Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ模型中的参数进行迭代估计的新算法，通过比较分析，说明了本文算法的有效性。     

Estimation for a class of nonstationary processes

Random processes with almost periodic covariance function are considered from a spectral outlook. Given suitable conditions, spectral estimation problems are discussed for Gaussian processes of this type that are neither stationary nor locally stationary. Spectral mass is concentrated on lines parallel to the main diagonal in the spectral plane. A method of estimation of the support of spectral mass under appropriate restraints is considered. Some open questions are discussed. Extension of the methods for a class of nonGaussian nonstationary processes with mean value function a trigonometric regression is given. Consistent estimates for frequency, amplitude and phase of the regression are noted when the residual process is zero mean almost periodic. The resulting estimation of the spectral mass of the residual is also considered.     

指数分布参数多层Bayes和E Bayes估计的性质

本文讨论无失效数据下指数分布参数多层Bayes估计和E Bayes估计的性质,在超参数分别取两种不同的先验分布下,证明参数的多层Bayes估计和E Bayes估计渐近相等,且多层Bayes估计值小于E Bayes估计值.     

Stochastic Approximation Algorithms for Parameter Estimation in Option Pricing with Regime Switching

Abstract

This work is concerned with option pricing. Stochastic approximation/optimization algorithms are proposed and analyzed. The underlying stock price evolves according to two geometric Brownian motions coupled by a continuous-time finite state Markov chain. Recursive stochastic approximation algorithms are developed to estimate the implied volatility. Convergence of the algorithm is proved. Rate of convergence is also ascertained. Then real market data are used to compare our algorithms with other schemes.     

广义高斯分布的参数估计及其收敛性质

广义高斯分布是一类以Gaussian分布、Laplacian分布为特例的对称分布 ,它在信号处理和图像处理等领域都有广泛的应用 .本文采用矩估计方法讨论广义高斯分布的形状参数和尺度参数的估计问题 ,首先导出了矩和参数的关系表达式 ,然后由此提出参数估计方法 ,并对参数估计的收敛性质进行了分析 ,最后利用模拟实验对本文所提方法进行了验证 .     

Linear Model Selection Based on Risk Estimation

The problem of selecting one model from a family of linear models to describe a normally distributed observed data vector is considered. The notion of the model of given dimension nearest to the observation vector is introduced and methods of estimating the risk associated with such a nearest model are discussed. This leads to new model selection criteria one of which, called the "partial bootstrap", seems particularly promising. The methods are illustrated by specializing to the problem of estimating the non-zero components of a parameter vector on which noisy observations are available.     

Logistic曲线参数估计及应用(英文)

研究产生Logistic曲线的Logistic微分方程,给定显著性水平α,利用微分与差分基本原理,在置信度1-α下借助多元回归估计Logistic曲线参数.最后应用Logistic曲线研究中国1990-2007的人口数,预测得到中国2008年的人口数约为13.24亿.     

Transformation Kernel Density Estimation With Applications

One of the main objectives of this article is to derive efficient nonparametric estimators for an unknown density fX. It is well known that the ordinary kernel density estimator has, despite several good properties, some serious drawbacks. For example, it suffers from boundary bias and it also exhibits spurious bumps in the tails. We propose a semiparametric transformation kernel density estimator to overcome these defects. It is based on a new semiparametric transformation function that transforms data to normality. A generalized bandwidth adaptation procedure is also developed. It is found that the newly proposed semiparametric transformation kernel density estimator performs well for unimodal, low, and high kurtosis densities. Moreover, it detects and estimates densities with excessive curvature (e.g., modes and valleys) more effectively than existing procedures. In conclusion, practical examples based on real-life data are presented.     

Accelerated Path-Following Iterative Shrinkage Thresholding Algorithm With Application to Semiparametric Graph Estimation

We propose an accelerated path-following iterative shrinkage thresholding algorithm (APISTA) for solving high-dimensional sparse nonconvex learning problems. The main difference between APISTA and the path-following iterative shrinkage thresholding algorithm (PISTA) is that APISTA exploits an additional coordinate descent subroutine to boost the computational performance. Such a modification, though simple, has profound impact: APISTA not only enjoys the same theoretical guarantee as that of PISTA, that is, APISTA attains a linear rate of convergence to a unique sparse local optimum with good statistical properties, but also significantly outperforms PISTA in empirical benchmarks. As an application, we apply APISTA to solve a family of nonconvex optimization problems motivated by estimating sparse semiparametric graphical models. APISTA allows us to obtain new statistical recovery results that do not exist in the existing literature. Thorough numerical results are provided to back up our theory.     

Estimation of Symmetry-Constrained Gaussian Graphical Models: Application to Clustered Dense Networks

We propose a model selection algorithm for high-dimensional clustered data. Our algorithm combines a classical penalized likelihood method with a composite likelihood approach in the framework of colored graphical Gaussian models. Our method is designed to identify high-dimensional dense networks with a large number of edges but sparse edge classes. Its empirical performance is demonstrated through simulation studies and a network analysis of a gene expression dataset.     

基于变量选择的混合时空地理加权回归参数估计

混合时空地理加权回归模型作为一种有效处理空间数据全局平稳和局部非平稳的分析方法得到了广泛的应用.但其参数估计方法中假定固定系数变量已知且不存在时空效应,这一较强的前提使回归系数的估计值变得极不稳定.为探究当固定系数变量存在时空效应时的参数估计方法,本文提出一种变量选择(Variable Selection)方法来剔除指标间的交互效应,并给出相应的算法过程.通过乌鲁木齐市商品住宅真实价格数据对不同估计方法进行对比验证,结果表明,利用变量选择方法后得到的MGTWR模型性能和拟合效果得到提升,固定回归系数的估计更加稳定,原有参数估计方法得到改善.     

A Study on Bandwidth Selection in Density Estimation under Dependence

Hart and Vieu proposed a modified cross validation (MCV), the “leave-(2l+1)-out” version of the simple cross validation for bandwidth selection under dependence and established its asymptotic optimality for a certain class ofl. In this article, we investigate the convergence rates of MCV.     

Weak signals in high‐dimensional regression: Detection,estimation and prediction

Regularization methods, including Lasso, group Lasso, and SCAD, typically focus on selecting variables with strong effects while ignoring weak signals. This may result in biased prediction, especially when weak signals outnumber strong signals. This paper aims to incorporate weak signals in variable selection, estimation, and prediction. We propose a two‐stage procedure, consisting of variable selection and postselection estimation. The variable selection stage involves a covariance‐insured screening for detecting weak signals, whereas the postselection estimation stage involves a shrinkage estimator for jointly estimating strong and weak signals selected from the first stage. We term the proposed method as the covariance‐insured screening‐based postselection shrinkage estimator. We establish asymptotic properties for the proposed method and show, via simulations, that incorporating weak signals can improve estimation and prediction performance. We apply the proposed method to predict the annual gross domestic product rates based on various socioeconomic indicators for 82 countries.