Smooth Scalar-on-Image Regression via Spatial Bayesian Variable Selection

We develop scalar-on-image regression models when images are registered multidimensional manifolds. We propose a fast and scalable Bayes’ inferential procedure to estimate the image coefficient. The central idea is the combination of an Ising prior distribution, which controls a latent binary indicator map, and an intrinsic Gaussian Markov random field, which controls the smoothness of the nonzero coefficients. The model is fit using a single-site Gibbs sampler, which allows fitting within minutes for hundreds of subjects with predictor images containing thousands of locations. The code is simple and is provided in the online Appendix (see the “Supplementary Materials” section). We apply this method to a neuroimaging study where cognitive outcomes are regressed on measures of white-matter microstructure at every voxel of the corpus callosum for hundreds of subjects.     

Bayesian Variable and Transformation Selection in Linear Regression

This article suggests a method for variable and transformation selection based on posterior probabilities. Our approach allows for consideration of all possible combinations of untransformed and transformed predictors along with transformed and untransformed versions of the response. To transform the predictors in the model, we use a change-point model, or “change-point transformation,” which can yield more interpretable models and transformations than the standard Box–Tidwell approach. We also address the problem of model uncertainty in the selection of models. By averaging over models, we account for the uncertainty inherent in inference based on a single model chosen from the set of models under consideration. We use a Markov chain Monte Carlo model composition (MC³) method which allows us to average over linear regression models when the space of models under consideration is very large. This considers the selection of variables and transformations at the same time. In an example, we show that model averaging improves predictive performance as compared with any single model that might reasonably be selected, both in terms of overall predictive score and of the coverage of prediction intervals. Software to apply the proposed methodology is available via StatLib.     

Bayesian Variable Selection for Logistic Models Using Auxiliary Mixture Sampling

This article presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for both variable and covariance selection in the context of logistic mixed effects models. This algorithm allows us to sample solely from standard densities with no additional tuning. We apply a stochastic search variable approach to select explanatory variables as well as to determine the structure of the random effects covariance matrix.

Prior determination of explanatory variables and random effects is not a prerequisite because the definite structure is chosen in a data-driven manner in the course of the modeling procedure. To illustrate the method, we give two bank data examples.     

Sampling Schemes for Bayesian Variable Selection in Generalized Linear Models

Bayesian approaches to prediction and the assessment of predictive uncertainty in generalized linear models are often based on averaging predictions over different models, and this requires methods for accounting for model uncertainty. When there are linear dependencies among potential predictor variables in a generalized linear model, existing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for sampling from the posterior distribution on the model and parameter space in Bayesian variable selection problems may not work well. This article describes a sampling algorithm based on the Swendsen-Wang algorithm for the Ising model, and which works well when the predictors are far from orthogonality. In problems of variable selection for generalized linear models we can index different models by a binary parameter vector, where each binary variable indicates whether or not a given predictor variable is included in the model. The posterior distribution on the model is a distribution on this collection of binary strings, and by thinking of this posterior distribution as a binary spatial field we apply a sampling scheme inspired by the Swendsen-Wang algorithm for the Ising model in order to sample from the model posterior distribution. The algorithm we describe extends a similar algorithm for variable selection problems in linear models. The benefits of the algorithm are demonstrated for both real and simulated data.     

Bayesian Inference on a Mixture Model With Spatial Dependence

We introduce a new technique to select the number of components of a mixture model with spatial dependence. The method consists of an estimation of the integrated completed likelihood based on a Laplace’s approximation and a new technique to deal with the normalizing constant intractability of the hidden Potts model. Our proposal is applied to a real satellite image. Supplementary materials are available online.