A least squares identification algorithm for a state space model with multi-state delays

A parameter estimator is presented for a state space model with time delay based on the given input–output data. The basic idea is to expand the state equations and to eliminate some state variables, and to substitute the state equation into the output equation to obtain the identification model which contains the information vector and parameter vector. A least squares algorithm is developed to estimate the system parameter vectors. Finally, an illustrative example is provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.     

Parameter and state estimation algorithm for single-input single-output linear systems using the canonical state space models

This paper presents a new parameter and state estimation algorithm for single-input single-output systems based on canonical state space models from the given input–output data. Difficulties of identification for state space models lie in that there exist unknown noise terms in the formation vector and unknown state variables. By means of the hierarchical identification principle, those noise terms in the information vector are replaced with the estimated residuals and a new least squares algorithm is proposed for parameter estimation and the system states are computed by using the estimated parameters. Finally, an example is provided.     

A state space model for rub‐off triangles

In this paper we suggest a distribution‐free state space model to be used with the Kalman filter in run‐off triangles. It works with original incremental amounts and relates the triangle with a column of observed values, which can be chosen in order to describe better the risk volume in each year. On the traditional application of run‐off triangles (the paid claims run‐off), this model relates the amount paid j years after the accident year with a column of observed values, that can be the claims paid on the first year, the number of claims, premiums, number of risks, etc. Two advantages of this model are the perfect split between observed values and random variables and the capacity to incorporate the changes in the speed of the company's reality into the model and in its projections. Particular care is taken on the evaluation of the final forecast mean square error as well as on the estimation of the model parameters, specially the error variances. Also, two sets of claims data are analysed. In comparison with other methods, namely, the chain ladder, the analysis of variance, the Hoerl curves and the state space modelling with the chain ladder linear model, the proposed model gave a final reserve with a mean square error within the smallest. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exact model matching of generalized state space systems

The problem of exact model matching for generalized state space (GSS) systems via pure proportional state and output feedback is studied. The following two major issues are resolved here for the first time: The necessary and sufficient conditions for the problem to have a solution and the general analytical expressions for the exact modelmatching controller matrices. The important case of left invertible systems is treated separately wherein simple solutions are established for the above two major issues and results on structural properties of the closed-loop system are reported. Known results on model matching of regular systems are derived as a special case of the GSS systems results, thus unifying the solution of the exact model-matching problem of regular and singular systems.The work described in this paper has been partially funded by the General Secretariat for Research and Technology of the Greek Ministry of Industry, Research, and Technology and by the Heracles General Cement Company of Greece.     

Maximum a Posteriori Sequence Estimation Using Monte Carlo Particle Filters

We develop methods for performing maximum a posteriori (MAP) sequence estimation in non-linear non-Gaussian dynamic models. The methods rely on a particle cloud representation of the filtering distribution which evolves through time using importance sampling and resampling ideas. MAP sequence estimation is then performed using a classical dynamic programming technique applied to the discretised version of the state space. In contrast with standard approaches to the problem which essentially compare only the trajectories generated directly during the filtering stage, our method efficiently computes the optimal trajectory over all combinations of the filtered states. A particular strength of the method is that MAP sequence estimation is performed sequentially in one single forwards pass through the data without the requirement of an additional backward sweep. An application to estimation of a non-linear time series model and to spectral estimation for time-varying autoregressions is described.     

Combined state and least squares parameter estimation algorithms for dynamic systems

The control theory and automation technology cast the glory of our era. Highly integrated computer chip and automation products are changing our lives. Mathematical models and parameter estimation are basic for automatic control. This paper discusses the parameter estimation algorithm of establishing the mathematical models for dynamic systems and presents an estimated states based recursive least squares algorithm, and the states of the system are computed through the Kalman filter using the estimated parameters. A numerical example is provided to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.     

A note on fuzzy inventory model with storage space and budget constraints

In 1997, Roy and Maiti developed a fuzzy EOQ model with fuzzy budget and storage capacity constraints where demand is influenced by the unit price and the setup cost varies with the quantity purchased [T.K. Roy, M. Maiti, A fuzzy EOQ model with demand-dependent unit cost under limited storage capacity, Eur. J. Oper. Res. 99 (1997) 425–432]. However, their procedure has some questionable points and their numerical examples contain rather peculiar results. The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, for the same inventory model with fuzzy constraints, based on the max–min operator, we proposed an improved solution procedure. Second, we review the solution procedure by Roy and Maiti that is based on Kuhn–Tucker approach to point out their questionable results. Third, we compare Roy and Maiti’s approach with ours to explain why our approach can solve the problem and theirs cannot. Numerical examples provided by them also support our findings.     

A low-order active fault-tolerant state space self-tuner for the unknown sampled-data nonlinear singular system using OKID and modified ARMAX model-based system identification

In this paper, we present two control schemes for the unknown sampled-data nonlinear singular system. One is an observer-based digital redesign tracker with the state-feedback gain and the feed-forward gain based on off-line observer/Kalman filter identification (OKID) method. The presented control scheme is able to make the unknown sampled-data nonlinear singular system to well track the desired reference signal. The other is an active fault tolerance state-space self-tuner using the OKID method and modified autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (ARMAX) model-based system identification for unknown sampled-data nonlinear singular system with input faults. First, one can apply the off-line OKID method to determine the appropriate (low-) order of the unknown system order and good initial parameters of the modified ARMAX model to improve the convergent speed of recursive extended-least-squares (RELS) method. Then, based on modified ARMAX-based system identification, a corresponding adaptive digital control scheme is presented for the unknown sampled-data nonlinear singular system with immeasurable system state. Moreover, in order to overcome the interference of input fault, one can use a fault-tolerant control scheme for unknown sampled-data nonlinear singular system by modifying the conventional self-tuner control (STC). The presented method can effectively cope with partially abrupt and/or gradual system input faults. Finally, some illustrative examples including a real circuit system are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented design methodologies.     

Bayesian modeling of financial returns: A relationship between volatility and trading volume

The modified mixture model with Markov switching volatility specification is introduced to analyze the relationship between stock return volatility and trading volume. We propose to construct an algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods to estimate all the parameters in the model using a Bayesian approach. The series of returns and trading volume of the British Petroleum stock will be analyzed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A bi-level programming model and solution algorithm for the location of logistics distribution centers

In this paper, by considering benefits of customers and logistics planning departments, a bi-level programming model is presented to seek the optimal location for logistics distribution centers. The upper-level model is to determine the optimal location by minimizing the planners’ cost, and the lower gives an equilibrium demand distribution by minimizing the customers’ cost. Based on the special form of constraints, a simple heuristic algorithm is proposed. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the application of the method, which shows that the algorithm is feasible and advantageous.     

A self‐adaptive intelligence gray prediction model with the optimal fractional order accumulating operator and its application

The self‐adaptive intelligence gray predictive model (SAIGM) has an alterable‐flexible model structure, and it can build a dynamic structure to fit different external environments by adjusting the parameter values of SAIGM. However, the order number of the raw SAIGM model is not optimal, which is an integer. For this, a new SAIGM model with the fractional order accumulating operator (SAIGM_FO) was proposed in this paper. Specifically, the final restored expression of SAIGM_FO was deduced in detail, and the parameter estimation method of SAIGM_FO was studied. After that, the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm was used to optimize the order number of SAIGM_FO, and some steps were provided. Finally, the SAIGM_FO model was applied to simulate China's electricity consumption from 2001 to 2008 and forecast it during 2009 to 2015, and the mean relative simulation and prediction percentage errors of the new model were only 0.860% and 2.661%, in comparison with the ones obtained from the raw SAIGM model, the GM(1, 1) model with the optimal fractional order accumulating operator and the GM(1, 1) model, which were (1.201%, 5.321%), (1.356%, 3.324%), and (2.013%, 23.944%), respectively. The findings showed both the simulation and the prediction performance of the proposed SAIGM_FO model were the best among the 4 models.