The incoming statistical knowledge of undergraduate majors in a department of mathematics and statistics

Studies have shown that at the end of an introductory statistics course, students struggle with building block concepts, such as mean and standard deviation, and rely on procedural understandings of the concepts. This study aims to investigate the understandings entering freshman of a department of mathematics and statistics (including mathematics education), students who are presumably better prepared in terms of mathematics and statistics than the average university student, have of introductory statistics. This case study found that these students enter college with common statistical misunderstandings, lack of knowledge, and idiosyncratic collections of correct statistical knowledge. Moreover, they also have a wide range of beliefs about their knowledge with some of the students who believe that they have the strongest knowledge also having significant misconceptions. More attention to these statistical building blocks may be required in a university introduction statistics course.     

Beyond statistical methods: teaching critical thinking to first-year university students

We discuss a major change in the way we teach our first-year statistics course. We have redesigned this course with emphasis on teaching critical thinking. We recognized that most of the students take the course for general knowledge and support of other majors, and very few are planning to major in statistics. We identified the essential aspects of a first-year statistics course, given this student mix, focusing on a simple question, ‘Given this is the last chance you have to teach statistics, what are the essential skills students need?’ We have moved from thinking about statistics skills needed for a statistician to skills needed to participate in today's society. We have changed the way we deliver the course with less emphasis on lectures and more on alternative resources including on-line tutorials, Excel, computer-based skills testing, web-based learning materials and smaller group activities such as study groups and example classes. Feedback from students shows that they are very receptive and enthusiastic.     

‘Good enough’ performance measurement: a trade-off between activity and action

Performance measurement systems along the lines of the EFQM and the balanced scorecard have developed rapidly in recent years, and now occupy much management time and effort. There is limited evidence that performance improvement has received proportionate attention. Six organisations selected for their success were studied using a grounded theory approach based on interviews with management accountants and operations managers in each of the organisations. It is clear that they are all making strenuous efforts to use their performance measurement systems but with a focus on the ‘good enough’ rather than the detail. This gave managers in these organisations the time and space to concentrate on the use of performance measures on forward looking relevance, understanding and action, rather than retrospective and detailed control. This approach was promoted by senior managers and was based on their ability to see the business in simple terms and their understanding of the key drivers of business performance.     

Good and bad market research: A critical review of Net Promoter Score

Net Promoter Score, touted as the “single customer metric you need” and calculated from customers' answer to one simple question about their loyalty, has been in use since 2003 and adopted in a wide variety of settings. However, it has not lived up to its claimed benefits. This article evaluates the NPS approach in terms of its positive and negative results. This article is for people interested in NPS, still considering implementing NPS in their company, or interested in its technical underpinnings. It points out the benefits and shortcomings and explains why, and it describes what can be done to achieve the outcomes NPS theory claimed it would produce, but has not. The article is written in two parts for quite distinct audiences: firstly, for executives and managers who need customer data and information to make marketing decisions; and secondly, for market researchers, statisticians, and business analysts who are responsible for capturing and providing reliable, understandable, and meaningful customer data to the executives and managers who need the information. Consequently, the two sections are written in two different styles. The first section takes the form of a summary for managers and executives of our findings and recommendations in language aimed at business leaders; the second section provides a detailed analysis and critical review of NPS for market researchers, statisticians, and business analysts. Both sections present a better solution than NPS for understanding what customers value, delivering the best value to customers, winning market share, and creating truly loyal customers.     

Making the information systems outsourcing decision: A transaction cost approach to analyzing outsourcing decision problems

During the last several years outsourcing has emerged as a major issue in information systems management. As competitive forces impinge on business firms, senior managers are re-structuring their organizations with an eye on attaining or maintaining competitive advantage. Various strategies to IS outsourcing have emerged, for example, some outsourcers contract with a sole vendor while others contract with several. To date no studies have been done to determine which strategies are appropriate under what conditions. And while some firms have achieved varying degrees of success with any of these strategies, many have encountered significant difficulties. How then are managers to choose from a set of options that which is most appropriate for their firm? Outsourcing problems are complex and entail considerable implications for the strategy of the firm. A wrong decision can result in loss of core competencies and capabilities, and exposure to unexpected risks. Although many articles have appeared on outsourcing, few have extended the discussion beyond simple cost–benefit analysis. In this paper we discuss a transaction cost theory approach to the analysis of outsourcing decision making. Our approach provides managers with a strategy and techniques for analyzing some of the more subtle issues they may face when dealing with complex outsourcing decisions problems.     

Modelling heterogeneity in a manpower system: a review

Manpower planning is an essential methodology for business and industry; it allows managers to make more efficient use of human resources. However, human behaviour is highly variable and it is therefore essential for manpower planning that population heterogeneity is successfully modelled. In this paper we review methods of incorporating population heterogeneity into manpower modelling. The analysis of differentials in a manpower system is emphasized since they are a source of aggregation error in stochastic models. Two strategies have been stressed, the use of observable sources of heterogeneity as they affect wastage, and the latent sources which cannot be identified precisely but are known to affect the key parameters of most models. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Every rose has its thorn: secondary teachers’ reasoning about statistical models

Statistical modeling is a core component of statistical thinking and has been identified by several countries as a curricular goal for secondary education. However, many secondary teachers have minimal preparation for teaching this topic. The goal of this research study is to learn about teachers’ perceptions of the role statistical models play in statistical inference and how these perceived purposes affect their reasoning about statistical models and inference. Problem-solving interviews were conducted with four in-service teachers who had recently taught a modeling and simulation-based introductory statistics course. Teachers’ responses suggest they may not see modeling variation as the primary purpose of statistical modeling and instead substitute two other purposes: making a decision and replicating the data collection process. Suggestions for how to build on teachers’ transitional conceptions and refocus attention on modeling variation are discussed.     

Past Disappointments and New Promise

Since computers first appeared commercially in the early 1950's they have been exploited with some success (and some failures) in the execution of low-level, administrative and business routines. They have proven of great benefit in scientific and engineering computation. But, despite early promises, senior managers have personally had little help from their application. Some reasons for this disappointing experience are inherent in the available technology. It is forecast that emerging new hardware, software and communications techniques and products will create a new information technology in the 1980's which will not possess the defects and limitations which senior managements have so far both perceived and experienced.     

Elementary preservice teachers’ reasoning about statistical modeling in a civic statistics context

Elements of statistical modeling can be implemented already in primary school. A prerequisite for this approach is that teachers are well-educated in this domain. Content knowledge, pedagogical content knowledge and (pedagogical) content related technological knowledge are core components of teacher education. We designed a course for elementary preservice teachers with regard to developing statistical thinking including the mentioned knowledge facets. The course includes exploring data and modeling and simulating chance experiments with TinkerPlots. We use the ‘data factory metaphor’ in fictive contexts and in contexts stemming from civic statistics for supporting the idea of modeling. We interviewed four participants of the course to assess and analyze their reasoning. We analyze how they model a given civic statistics contextual problem using the TinkerPlots sampler and how they evaluate their model with regard to a civic statistics context (the situation of hospitals in Germany).     

Incremental Calculus and its Applications

Incremental calculus is a powerful and flexible tool for theanalysis of system behaviour, dependent on variables which aresubject to discrete changes. This is of particular interestwhen attention is focused on the relative changes that takeplace, namely on the ratio of an increment of a variable (ora function) to its original value prior to the change. Suchcircumstances are common in the business world, and this iswhy incremental calculus can be widely applied for managerialpurposes, both for diagnosing past events and for planning anddecision making. The basic operational rules of incrementalcalculus are introduced, and their use is demonstrated by severalexamples. Although the examples concentrate on problems of concernto managers and business analysts, the methodology describedin this paper can be easily applied in many fields of scienceand technology.     

Use of Demonstrations and Experiments in Teaching Business Statistics

The aim of a business statistics course should be to help students think statistically and to interpret and understand data, rather than to focus on mathematical detail and computation. To achieve this students must be thoroughly involved in the learning process, and encouraged to discover for themselves the meaning, importance and relevance of statistical concepts. In this paper we advocate the use of experiments and demonstrations as aids to achieving these goals. A number of demonstrations are given which can be used to illustrate and explain some key statistical ideas.     

Attitudes and perceived usefulness of statistics among health sciences students

A questionnaire was completed at the cessation of semester 2 in November 1989 by 102 postgraduate and 58 undergraduate health sciences students studying introductory statistics units. The questionnaire measured; (i) the student's attitude towards statistics, (ii) the way in which they learned statistics, (iii) the student's intention to pursue further statistics training, and (iv) the perceived usefulness of statistics in their professions. It was found that the learning of statistics would be enhanced by smaller tutorial groups, and more exposure to computer printouts to assist in interpretation of results. An emphasis on the understanding of statistics presented in journal articles should be a priority. It was also apparent that the more computer and research experience the student had prior to commencing the course, the greater the likelihood of a positive attitude towards statistics. However, both undergraduate and postgraduate students indicated that they would not enrol in an advanced biostatistics course, but would rather consult a statistician when necessary. Suggestions for more effective statistical teaching for health sciences students are also discussed.     

Teaching of statistics at the secondary level An interdisciplinary approach

This paper examines the educational desirability of introducing the teaching of statistics at the secondary level. A syllabus is proposed for a course in statistics at the secondary level and brief comments are given on each topic, indicating how they may be presented to students.     

Problems and Possibilities with Teaching Introductory Statistics to Social Scientists

As undergraduates, many social scientists take only one introductory course in statistics, and this paper concentrates mainly on the various issues involved in teaching such a course. Among the topics discussed are: the aims of the course; the problem of students’ varying mathematical backgrounds and abilities, and in particular the very low level of mathematics of a significant number of them; the question of a common course for all social sciences, and the differing needs of the various subjects; who should teach introductory statistics; the problem of developing students’ motivation to study statistics; the use of practical work; the possibilities of the computer; the utility of programmed texts and teaching machines. The intention of the paper is to provide a framework for the seminar by a broad review of the topics, a number of which are discussed in detail in subsequent sessions.     

Prospering In a Global Economy

In the rapidly changing business environment, managers have to decide in what direction to change their businesses, and how to effect the desired changes. Benchmarking is one technique that uses the principles of OR and, as an example of its power, the results are summarized here of a major Andersen Consulting study of worldwide manufacturing competitiveness. But how we see business problems and relationships is as important as what we see. The Hofstede analysis of five cultural dimensions is discussed, together with its implications for co-operation and human relationships within the firm, and even for the formulation of strategy. The four strategy styles distinguished by Whittington reveal the importance of human and cultural factors in the very heart of business. In the battle for future markets, it is vital that the hard and soft techniques work in tandem.     

Reorganizing freshman business mathematics I: background and philosophy

This article is the first of the two-part discussion of thedevelopment of a new Freshman Business Mathematics (FBM) courseat our college. Part I of the article describes the backgroundand history behind the course, and provides a theoretical frameworkfor the design of the course. This design involves studentsin learning and applying mathematics to real world problemsusing common business tools, in this case spreadsheets. Thisnew course is centered on the concept of building and interpretingmodels of data, but touches on many topics in statistics, pre-calculusand calculus.     

双边市场下商家和电子商务平台的演化博弈分析

互联网平台经济中存在的“二选一”和“多选一”现象引起了国内外社会各界的广泛关注,在此现实情境下,本文作了具体参数设置和相应假设,构建了双边市场下商家和电子商务平台关于排他性竞争行为的演化博弈模型,得到商家和电子商务平台在不同条件下的演化稳定均衡策略,并讨论了参数变化对演化稳定均衡策略的影响。最后,通过数值算例分析对系统演化稳定均衡结果进行了验证。研究结果对商家和电子商务平台企业的管理决策,以及政府监管部门对互联网经济下不正当竞争行为的有效监管有着一定启示意义。     

CEO早年经历与企业诉讼风险——基于上市公司的实证研究

本文基于高层梯队理论,选取中国A股上市公司作为样本,以实证分析的方式探究了CEO个人能否有效降低上市公司面临的诉讼风险。我们发现,婴儿-幼儿期、童年-青少年期经历过困难时期的CEO所在的上市公司的诉讼风险水平更低,且童年-青少年期经历困难时期的影响更为明显。利用CEO在不同省份经历困难时期的严重程度差异构造双重差分模型、将被解释变量前置一期控制潜在的内生性之后,因果关系仍保持稳健。进一步研究表明,经历过困难时期的CEO因为具有更高的风险厌恶程度而降低了企业运营中整体的风险水平,没有改变企业的内部控制水平。     

Contracting over multiple parameters: Capacity allocation in semiconductor manufacturing

This paper is a generalization of Mallik and Harker [Mallik, S., Harker, P.T., 2004. Coordinating supply chains with competition: Capacity allocation in semiconductor manufacturing. European Journal of Operational Research 159, 330–347] that presented an integrated model of incentive problems arising in forecasting and capacity allocation. In that model, multiple product managers and multiple manufacturing managers forecast the means of their respective demand and capacity distributions, and a central coordinator allocates capacities based on these forecasts. A mechanism that elicits truthful information from the managers was the main contribution of that paper. The objective of this paper is to generalize our previous results to multiple statistics reporting. This work assumes that the central coordinator can ask the managers to report multiple statistics (mean and variance, for example) about their respective distributions. We propose a game theoretic model and design a mechanism (a bonus scheme and an allocation rule) that elicits truthful reporting of all statistics by all managers. It turns out that the structure of the optimal bonus schemes are rather simple with easily calculable parameters. We also show that a large class of allocation rules are manipulable. A bonus is often required for elicitation of truthful information. We compare our results of multiple statistics reporting with those from Mallik and Harker (2004). We also characterize under what conditions the reporting of the extra information is of limited use.