Viability in dynamic social networks

Two examples, Sampson's monks and Padgett and Ansell’ Florentines, illustrate the viability approach of dynamic networks. Notably, the relationship with centrality is studied. Historical processes involving networks are discussed.

Networks are presented as controls in controlled dynamic systems. Viability is the property for a state x that there exists a trajectory starting from x and satisfying the constraints until the time horizon. To obtain this, connection matrices must be selected at each time and each visited state among a specific set, the regulation map, which is carefully defined and built.     

Interacting neural networks and the emergence of social structure

The article describes a computational model for the simulation of the emergence of social structure or social order, respectively. The model is theoretically based on the theory of social typifying by Berger and Luckmann. It consists of interacting artificial actors (agents), which are represented by two neural networks, an action net, and a perception net. By mutually adjusting of their actions, the agents are able to constitute a self‐organized social order in dependency of their personal characteristics and certain features of their environment. A fictitious example demonstrates the applicability of the model to problems of extra‐terrestrial robotics. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 12: 41–52, 2007     

On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

An analytical theory of knowledge behaviour in networks

To date OR has no means of modelling, and therefore predicting the behaviour of knowledge in a system. Such knowledge bearing systems are ubiquitous, and include social networking structures (of increasing importance in politics and in marketing) and more conventional organisational structures (such as communities of practice). Taking into account the critical nature of knowledge production and dissemination as strategic issues for firms, this is a serious gap in our capability.     

An analytical method for cost analysis in multi-stage supply chains: A stochastic network model approach

This paper studies the cost distribution characteristics in multi-stage supply chain networks. Based on the graphical evaluation and review technique, we propose a novel stochastic network mathematical model for cost distribution analysis in multi-stage supply chain networks. Further, to investigate the effects of cost components, including the procurement costs, inventory costs, shortage costs, production costs and transportation costs of supply chain members, on the total supply chain operation cost, we propose the concept of cost sensitivity and provide corresponding algorithms based on the proposed stochastic network model. Then the model is extended to analyze the cost performance of supply chain robustness under different order compensation ability scenarios and the corresponding algorithms are developed. Simulation experiment shows the effectiveness and flexibility of the proposed model, and also promotes a better understanding of the model approach and its managerial implications in cost management of supply chains.     

Fourth-generation warfare: Jihadist networks and percolation

This paper studies the approach to the fourth-generation warfare (4GW) paradigm from the perspective of physical and mathematical disciplines, through the interdisciplinary bridge offered by the analysis of complex networks. The study is within an emerging multidisciplinary field, Sociophysics, which attempts to apply statistical mechanics and the science of complex systems to predict human social behavior. The fourth-generation warfare concept is reviewed, and the war of the Jihadist Islam against the West will be contextualized as 4GW. The paradigm of complex systems has in diverse branches of science changed how collective phenomena are processed. The jihadist networks phenomenon in particular is appropriate for study from the standpoint of complex networks. We present an empirical study of the 9/11 and 11M networks, implemented from public information, and we give a comparison of both networks from the standpoint of complex networks. Several authors have made use of the phenomenon of percolation in complex physical systems to analyse complex networks, particularly jihadist actions like 9/11. The relationship between jihadist networks and percolation is considered. The percolation concept is reviewed and related to 4GW, and the definition of memetic dimension is introduced.     

The evolution of convention: Conformity and innovation in task-oriented networks

The individual choice between conformity and innovation within task-oriented collectivities is presented as a social dilemma. Adaptive, network-embedded actors are seen to modify their propensities to conform or innovate retrospectively, based on performance differences between the individual and task group levels. A computational framework, based on simulation techniques and algorithmic complexity theory, is advanced to investigate the impact of antecedent structural conditions on innovative behavior and the effect that such behavior has on the evolution of patterns of interaction (conventions) and efficiency. Findings indicate that the dynamics of innovation differ dramatically based on the complexity of tasks faced by actors. When simple tasks are addressed, innovative behaviors have a destabilizing effect on social conventions and are clearly linked to contextual factors. When complex tasks are involved, commitment to innovation may actually help reinforce conventions and is not tied to structural antecedents.Department of Sociology, Stanford University     

Bayesian networks for discrete multivariate data: an algebraic approach to inference

In this paper we demonstrate how Gröbner bases and other algebraic techniques can be used to explore the geometry of the probability space of Bayesian networks with hidden variables. These techniques employ a parametrisation of Bayesian network by moments rather than conditional probabilities. We show that whilst Gröbner bases help to explain the local geometry of these spaces a complimentary analysis, modelling the positivity of probabilities, enhances and completes the geometrical picture. We report some recent geometrical results in this area and discuss a possible general methodology for the analyses of such problems.     

Optimal monitoring network designs

The selection of a monitoring network is formulated as a decision problem whose solutions would then be optimal. The theory is applied where the underlying field has a multivariate normal probability structure.     

Modelling gateway placement in wireless networks: Geometric k-centres of unit disc graphs

Motivated by the gateway placement problem in wireless networks, we consider the geometric k-centre problem on unit disc graphs: given a set of points P in the plane, find a set F of k points in the plane that minimizes the maximum graph distance from any vertex in P to the nearest vertex in F in the unit disc graph induced by P∪F. We show that the vertex 1-centre provides a 7-approximation of the geometric 1-centre and that a vertex k-centre provides a 13-approximation of the geometric k-centre, resulting in an O(kn)-time 26-approximation algorithm. We describe O(n²m)-time and O(n³)-time algorithms, respectively, for finding exact and approximate geometric 1-centres, and an O(mn2k)-time algorithm for finding a geometric k-centre for any fixed k. We show that the problem is NP-hard when k is an arbitrary input parameter. Finally, we describe an O(n)-time algorithm for finding a geometric k-centre in one dimension.     

Global asymptotic stability of stochastic Cohen-Grossberg-type BAM neural networks with mixed delays: An LMI approach

In this paper, we consider the stochastic Cohen-Grossberg-type BAM neural networks with mixed delays. By utilizing the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, some sufficient LMI-based conditions are obtained to guarantee the global asymptotic stability of stochastic Cohen-Grossberg-type BAM neural networks with mixed delays. These conditions can be easily checked via the MATLAB LMI toolbox. Moreover, the obtained results extend and improve the earlier publications. Finally, a numerical example is provided to demonstrate the low conservatism and effectiveness of the proposed LMI conditions.     

Control and voting power in corporate networks: Concepts and computational aspects

This paper proposes to rely on power indices to measure the amount of control held by individual shareholders in corporate networks. The value of the indices is determined by a complex voting game viewed as the composition of interlocked weighted majority games; the compound game reflects the structure of shareholdings. The paper describes an integrated algorithmic approach which allows to deal efficiently with the complexity of computing power indices in shareholding networks, irrespective of their size or structure. In particular, the approach explicitly accounts for the presence of float and of cyclic shareholding relationships. It has been successfully applied to the analysis of real-world financial networks.     

Measurement of loading and operations flexibility in flexible manufacturing systems: An information-theoretic approach

An information-theoretic approach is applied for measuring the flexibility in flexible manufacturing systems (FMSs). The general relation between flexibility and entropy is discussed. The entropy for a Markovian process is obtained and then applied to closed queueing network models of FMSs to discuss loading flexibility which arises from the power to regulate the frequency of the visit of a part to different work stations. The concept of operations entropy as a measure of operations flexibility, which arises from the power to choose the work station and the corresponding operations, is introduced. The operations entropy has been decomposed into entropies within and between operations and entropies within and between groups of operations. This measure has been used to determine the next operation to be performed on a part by using the principle of least reduction of flexibility.The present paper is an improved version of the paper On measurement of flexibility in flexible manufacturing systems: An information-theoretic approach, presented at the II ORSA/TIMS Special Conference on Flexible Manufacturing Systems, held at Ann Arbor in August 1986.     

NETEST: Estimating a Terrorist Network's Structure—Graduate Student Best Paper Award, CASOS 2002 Conference

Since the events of September 11, 2001, the United States has found itself engaged in an unconventional and asymmetric form of warfare against elusive terrorist organizations. Defense and investigative organizations require innovative solutions that will assist them in determining the membership and structure of these organizations. Data on covert organizations are often in the form of disparate and incomplete inferences of memberships and connections between members. NETEST is a tool that combines multi-agent technology with hierarchical Bayesian inference models and biased net models to produce accurate posterior representations of a network. Bayesian inference models produce representations of a network's structure and informant accuracy by combining prior network and accuracy data with informant perceptions of a network. Biased net theory examines and captures the biases that may exist in a specific network or set of networks. Using NETEST, an investigator has the power to estimate a network's size, determine its membership and structure, determine areas of the network where data is missing, perform cost/benefit analysis of additional information, assess group level capabilities embedded in the network, and pose what if scenarios to destabilize a network and predict its evolution over time.     

Global robust asymptotic stability analysis of BAM neural networks with time delay and impulse: An LMI approach

The global robust asymptotic stability of bi-directional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with constant or time-varying delays and impulse is studied. An approach combining the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional with the linear matrix inequality (LMI) is taken to study the problem. Some a criteria for the global robust asymptotic stability, which gives information on the delay-dependent property, are derived. Some illustrative examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the obtained results.     

Scheduling networks of queues: Heavy traffic analysis of a simple open network

We consider a queueing network with two single-server stations and two types of customers. Customers of type A require service only at station 1 and customers of type B require service first at station 1 and then at station 2. Each server has a different general service time distribution, and each customer type has a different general interarrival time distribution. The problem is to find a dynamic sequencing policy at station 1 that minimizes the long-run average expected number of customers in the system.The scheduling problem is approximated by a dynamic control problem involving Brownian motion. A reformulation of this control problem is solved, and the solution is interpreted in terms of the queueing system in order to obtain an effective sequencing policy. Also, a pathwise lower bound (for any sequencing policy) is obtained for the total number of customers in the network. We show via simulation that the relative difference between the performance of the proposed policy and the pathwise lower bound becomes small as the load on the network is increased toward the heavy traffic limit.     

Evidence-based modelling of strategic fit: An introduction to RCaRBS

This paper presents an important development of a novel non-parametric object classification technique, namely CaRBS (Classification and Ranking Belief Simplex), to enable regression-type analyses. Termed RCaRBS, it is, as with CaRBS, an evidence-based technique, with its mathematical operations based on the Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence. Its exposition is demonstrated here by modelling the strategic fit of a set of public organizations. In addition to the consideration of the predictive fit of a series of models, graphical exploration of the contribution of individual variables in the derived models is also undertaken when using RCaRBS. Comparison analyses, including through fivefold cross-validation, are carried out using multiple regression and neural networks models. The findings highlight that RCaRBS achieves parity of test set predictive fit with regression and better fit than neural networks. The RCaRBS technique can also enable researchers to explore non-linear relationships (contributions) between variables in greater detail than either regression or neural networks models.     

An optimal capacity assignment for the robust design problem in capacitated flow networks

This paper proposes an exact algorithm to solve the robust design problem in a capacitated flow network in which each edge has several possible capacities. A capacitated flow network is popular in our daily life. For example, the computer network, the power transmission network, or even the supply chain network are capacitated flow networks. In practice, such network may suffer failure, partial failure or maintenance. Therefore, each edge in the network should be assigned sufficient capacity to keep the network functioning normally. The robust design problem (RDP) in a capacitated flow network is to search for the minimum capacity assignment of each edge such that the network still survived even under the edge’s failure. However, how to optimally assign the capacity to each edge is not an easy task. Although this kind of problem was known of NP-hard, this paper proposes an efficient exact algorithm to search for the optimal solutions for such a network and illustrates the efficiency of the proposed algorithm by numerical examples.     

Modeling centrality measures in social network analysis using bi-criteria network flow optimization problems

Centrality measures play an important role in the field of network analysis. In the particular case of social networks, the flow represents the way in which information passes through the network nodes. Freeman et al. (1991) were the first authors to relate centrality measures to network flow optimization problems in terms of betweenness, closeness, and the influence of one node over another one. Such measures are single dimensional and, in general, they amalgamate several heterogeneous dimensions into a single one, which is not suitable for dealing with most real-world problems. In this paper we extend the betweenness centrality measure (or concept) to take into account explicitly several dimensions (criteria). A new closeness centrality measure is defined to deal not only with the maximum flow between every ordered pair of nodes, but also with the cost associated with communications. We shall show how the classical measures can be enhanced when the problem is modeled as a bi-criteria network flow optimization problem.